14时探空在改进北京地区对流天气潜势预报中的作用

廖晓农; 俞小鼎; 谭一洲

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.004

气象:2007,33(3):28-32

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14时探空在改进北京地区对流天气潜势预报中的作用

廖晓农¹, 俞小鼎², 谭一洲³

(1.北京市气象台, 100089;2.中国气象局培训中心;3.电子科技大学计算机学院)

Improvement of Convective Weather Forecasting with Enhanced 1400 BST Sounding Data

Liao Xiaonong¹, Yu Xiaoding², Tan Yizhou³

(1.Beijing Weather Forecasting Office, Beijing 100089;2.Training Center, China Meteorological Administration;3.University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)

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修订日期：2007-01-18

中文摘要: 为了探讨增加14时探空对于对流天气短时临近潜势预报的作用，用1995—2005年北京地区22个人工观测站资料统计了夏季常见的对流天气日变化特征。结果表明，41.6%的雷阵雨、61.3%的冰雹以及58.5%的雷暴大风发生在15—20时之间。利用探空资料计算并对比了出现在2006年7—9月14时探空释放后到20时期间11个雷暴个例的08时和14时BCAPE、DCAPE、CI N等对流参数。结果表明，对于多数个例，在判断对流是否发生时14时探空优于08时。因此，增加14时探空对于提高对流天气有无预报准确率有帮助。

中文关键词: 加密探空对流天气预报气候特征对流参数

Abstract:Eleven year (1995—2005) data from 22 observation stations are used in the statistic analysis in order to get the diurnal variation characteristics of convective weather events in Beijing area. The results show that 41.6% thunder s howers, 61.3% hail events and 58.5% gale wind gust events occurred in the period from 1500 BST to 2000 BST. Seven cases in July and August, 2006 are selected to test whether or not the 1400 BST sounding data are useful for the improvement i n forecasting thunderstorms after 1400 BST. Some convection diagnostic parameter s such as CAPE, DCAPE and CIN are calculated based on the sounding data of both 0800 BST and 1400 BST. The results of comparison indicate that 1400 BST sounding data are more helpful than 0800 BST sounding data in forecasting convective wea ther.

keywords: 1400 BST sounding convection potential forecast climatologic chara cteristics convective parameter comparison

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基金项目:

作者	单位
廖晓农	北京市气象台, 100089
俞小鼎	中国气象局培训中心
谭一洲	电子科技大学计算机学院

Author Name	Affiliation
Liao Xiaonong	Beijing Weather Forecasting Office, Beijing 100089
Yu Xiaoding	Training Center, China Meteorological Administration
Tan Yizhou	University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

引用文本：
廖晓农,俞小鼎,谭一洲,2007.14时探空在改进北京地区对流天气潜势预报中的作用[J].气象,33(3):28-32.
Liao Xiaonong,Yu Xiaoding,Tan Yizhou,2007.Improvement of Convective Weather Forecasting with Enhanced 1400 BST Sounding Data[J].Meteor Mon,33(3):28-32.