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投稿时间:2006-01-19 修订日期:2006-08-24
投稿时间:2006-01-19 修订日期:2006-08-24
中文摘要: 利用云南省121个地面测站1961—2004年的年平均气温,分析了云南最近40多年来气温变化的基本特征。在气温的年代变化上,1960年代和1980年代云南气温波动较小,1970年代是近44年来最冷的一个年代,1990年代以后逐步转暖,但1990年代的年平均气温波动也较大。各地不同时段具有不同的气温倾向率,1980年代以来全省平均气温倾向率为0.24℃/10年,与全国大部地区的升温率接近,滇西的保山、中甸和思茅等地是近40年全省升温最快的地区,而滇中地区则是最近10多年全省升温最显著的地区。主分量分析揭示了云南各地气温变化的时空分布特征,第1特征向量场的高值区是云南气温变化的敏感区,第1主分量序列是反映云南整体年均气温变化趋势的指标,第2特征向量场的正值区和负值区基本对应第1特征向量的低值区和高值区。在第1特征向量的高值区1960年代以来的气温变化具有前低后高的特点,低值区则相反。
中文关键词: 年平均气温,时空变化特征,倾向率,主分量分析
Abstract:With the annual mean temperature of 121 meteorological surface observation stations in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2004,the spatial-temporal features of temperature variations in Yunnan is discussed.From the view of temperature variation of various decades,the fluctuation of temperature is slight in the 1960's decade and 1980's decade.The 1970's decade is the coldest one in the latest four decades.During the 1990's decade,the temperature turns higher gradually and the fluctuation of temperature in 1990's decade is considerable.Since 1980,average linear trend of annual temperature in Yunnan is warming up with 0.24℃ per decade,which is close to the average linear trend of main area of China.Baoshan,Zhongdian and Simao,which locate in the west of Yunnan,take on the fastest warming linear trend in the last 40 years,whereas the temperature's ascending trend of mid Yunnan is the most remarkable in the latest ten years.By using principal component analysis of factor fields,the larger value area of the first eigenvector is the sensitive area to the variation of temperature,and its time series is an index standing for the mean annual temperature variation of the whole province.The positive/negative areas of the second eigenvector correspond the lower/higher value areas of the first eigenvector respectively.In the higher value area of the first eigenvector,the feature of temperature variation possesses the character that the temperature is lower in the former time and higher in the latter time since 1960's decade,and the lower value area of the first eigenvector has reverse character.
keywords: annual mean temperature, spatial-temporal variation, tendency, principal component analysis
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基金项目:
作者 | 单位 |
姚愚 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034;云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院 |
李晓鹏 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034 |
闫丽萍 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034 |
罗园 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034 |
李卫红 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034 |
李毅巍 | 云南昆明市气象台, 650034 |
Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本:
姚愚,李晓鹏,闫丽萍,罗园,李卫红,李毅巍,2006.近44年云南年平均气温的时空变化特征[J].气象,32(10):81-87.
,2006.Spatial-Temporal Variation of Annual Mean Temperature in Yunnan Province for Last 44 Years[J].Meteor Mon,32(10):81-87.
姚愚,李晓鹏,闫丽萍,罗园,李卫红,李毅巍,2006.近44年云南年平均气温的时空变化特征[J].气象,32(10):81-87.
,2006.Spatial-Temporal Variation of Annual Mean Temperature in Yunnan Province for Last 44 Years[J].Meteor Mon,32(10):81-87.