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投稿时间：2005-12-26 修订日期：2006-08-01
投稿时间：2005-12-26 修订日期：2006-08-01
中文摘要: 应用1951—2002年热带气旋年鉴资料,对52年来北上热带气旋的月际变化、年际和年代际变化、气候突变、振荡周期等若干气候特征进行了分析。结果表明:北上热带气旋的月际变化特征明显,7—9月是北上热带气旋发生的关键月份,尤其7、8月是高峰期,1—4月和12月没有北上热带气旋。北上热带气旋的年际变化表现为略有上升的趋势,并以每10年3%的倾向率上升。用Mann-Kendall方法作突变分析,没有明显的突变年。近52年,北上热带气旋呈现出明显的年际和年代际变化特征,存在5年的显著年际周期,同时还存在10～12年、20～22年的年代际振荡周期。
中文关键词: 北上热带气旋，年际和年代际变化，气候突变，振荡周期
Abstract:Using the data of Tropical Cyclone Yearbooks from 1951 to 2002,intermonthly characteristics,interannual and interdecadal variation,climate incident,oscillation period about tropical cyclones influencing the northern China are analyzed.The results show that the tropical cyclones influencing the northern China exhibit remarkable intermonthly variations.The dominant period is from July to September,especially the peak period is July and August,but there are no tropical cyclones influencing the northern China during January-April and December.A less increasing trend can be found in the interannual timescale,In addition,the linear trend indicates an increase of 3%/10a.No sharp change can be found with the Mann-Kendall method.In the recent 52 years,the tropical cyclones influencing the northern China show remarkable interannual and interdecadal variability.There is remarkable interannual period of 5 years,and interdecadal oscillation periods with 2-to 4-year,10-to 12-year and 20-to 22-year also can be found.
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引用文本：
王秀萍,梁军,2006.近52年北上热带气旋的若干气候特征[J].气象,32(10):76-80.
,2006.Some Climatic Features of Tropical Cyclones Influencing Northern China for Recent 52 Years[J].Meteor Mon,32(10):76-80.
王秀萍,梁军,2006.近52年北上热带气旋的若干气候特征[J].气象,32(10):76-80.
,2006.Some Climatic Features of Tropical Cyclones Influencing Northern China for Recent 52 Years[J].Meteor Mon,32(10):76-80.