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投稿时间：2006-04-20 修订日期：2006-07-06
投稿时间：2006-04-20 修订日期：2006-07-06
中文摘要: 针对前汛期广西北部暴雨洪涝灾害频发的问题,利用T213模式和日本细网格降水预报等数值预报产品,采用条件数计算选取回归因子的方法建立广西北部区域平均降水量的预报方程。进行了2004、2005年两年5—6月的前汛期业务预报应用试验。采用条件数方法建立的预报方程和传统的逐步回归预报方程的平均预报误差分别为6.3569mm和7.0096mm,同期T213模式的预报误差为7.9456mm。试验表明新方法比传统的逐步回归方程和T213模式具有更高的预报精度,有较好的业务应用前景。计算对比可知,采用条件数计算选择的预报因子间的复共线性较微弱,而逐步回归方法选择的因子间的复共线性很严重,影响了回归方程的预报效果。
中文关键词: 条件数，逐步回归，降水量
Abstract:Aim to the frequent heavy rain and flood in North of Guangxi, using numerical weather forecast products of T213 model and Japan fine-mesh rainfall forecast model, a regional mean rainfall regressive forecast equation for north of Guangxi is set up on the basis of the calculation result of condition number. By an operational test in May and June 2004—2005, the errors of new forecast equation and traditional stepwise regression equation are 6.3569mm, 7.0096mm respectively, and the error of T213 in the corresponding period is 7.9456mm. The forecast capability of the new equation is better than the traditional regressive equation and T213 model, and it can be used widely in the operational weather forecast. Comparing the condition number of two forecast equations, the result shows that the collinearity of the new forecast equation is lower than the traditional stepwise regression equation, whose serious collinearity influences the forecast capability.
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基金项目:广西科学研究与技术开发项目(桂科攻:05920052A)，广西气象局重点项目(桂气科:200401)共同资助
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引用文本：
林健玲,金龙,2006.条件数在区域日降水量预报中的应用研究[J].气象,32(9):49-54.
,2006.Application of Condition Number to Regional Mean Rainfall Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,32(9):49-54.
林健玲,金龙,2006.条件数在区域日降水量预报中的应用研究[J].气象,32(9):49-54.
,2006.Application of Condition Number to Regional Mean Rainfall Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,32(9):49-54.