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中文摘要: 讨论了克州地区气温突变及年代际变化特征,并利用均生函数预测模型对克州地区气温进行预测试验。1995～2001年预测试验表明,均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合出气温的气候变化趋势,对年、季气温有较好的预测能力。
中文关键词: 气温变化，均生函数，预测
Abstract:Temperature abrupt changes and its decadal variation characteristics in Kezhou district, Xinjiang are discussed. A mean generating function model is used in the experiment of short-term climate prediction.The results show that this model can correctly simulate the climate trend in the period of 1995-2000, and it also has a good ability in the predication of seasonal and annual temperature variation.
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引用文本：
阿布力米提·司马义,何敏,2002.新疆克州地区气温年代际变化及均生函数预报模型的应用[J].气象,28(9):49-53.
,2002.Decadal Temperature Variation and Application of Mean Generating Function Model to Short-term Climate Prediction in Kezhou District[J].Meteor Mon,28(9):49-53.
阿布力米提·司马义,何敏,2002.新疆克州地区气温年代际变化及均生函数预报模型的应用[J].气象,28(9):49-53.
,2002.Decadal Temperature Variation and Application of Mean Generating Function Model to Short-term Climate Prediction in Kezhou District[J].Meteor Mon,28(9):49-53.