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中文摘要: 应用1986～1997年的常规探空资料,用相似离度制作了威海市冰雹强对流天气定时、定点、定量的概率预报方法。根据合成的威海市冰雹的四种环流型的数值信息,用相似离度实现了预报场的入型判别。应用HLAFS某时刻预报产品和多级相似方法实现威海市冰雹的多时次、定时、定点、定量、客观自动化概率预报。
中文关键词: 相似离度，入型判别，多级相似，定时，定点，定量预报
Abstract:The probability forecasting method of quantifying, timing and locating of hail storms in Weihai city is developed with analog deviation and sounding data from January 1986 to December 1997 in Eurasia. According to numerical information composed four circulation patterns of Weihai hail storms, the recognizing circulation patterns of numerical forecast production is finished with analog deviation. A multiple probability forecasting of quantifty, timing and locating of hail storms is realized with HLAFS numerical forecasting production and multiple-stage analog method in Weihai city.
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基金项目:山东省气象局科技基金资助
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引用文本：
张丰启,崔晶,王仁胜,2002.相似离度在入型判别和定时、定点、定量预报中的应用[J].气象,28(9):44-48.
,2002.Application of Analog Deviation to Recognition Circulation Patterns and Forecasting of Quantifying, Timing and Locating[J].Meteor Mon,28(9):44-48.
张丰启,崔晶,王仁胜,2002.相似离度在入型判别和定时、定点、定量预报中的应用[J].气象,28(9):44-48.
,2002.Application of Analog Deviation to Recognition Circulation Patterns and Forecasting of Quantifying, Timing and Locating[J].Meteor Mon,28(9):44-48.