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中文摘要: 利用相似概率预报原理,通过图型聚类方法制作了河北省分冷暖季节、分辨站点的气温变化趋势的客观概率预报,1998年暖季开始试应用,暖季预报的布赖尔等评分结果表明,图型聚类方法是制作气温变化趋势概率预报的合理可行的方法。
中文关键词: 相似概率预报，气温变化趋势，图型聚类，布赖尔评分
Abstract:Based on principles of similar probability forecast,the objective probability forecasts of temperature variation tendencies at stations were made separately for both warm and cold seasons by a pattern cluster technique.Brier and other scores of warm season show that the cluster technique is rational and feasible in temperature variation tendencies′ probability forecast.
keywords: similar probability forecasting,temperature variation,tendency pattern cluster,Brier score
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引用文本：
任荣彩,景华,赵玉广,徐宝新,1999.用图型聚类法作气温变化趋势的概率预报[J].气象,25(10):27-30.
,1999.Probability Forecast of Temperature Variation Tendencies with Pattern Cluster Technique[J].Meteor Mon,25(10):27-30.
任荣彩,景华,赵玉广,徐宝新,1999.用图型聚类法作气温变化趋势的概率预报[J].气象,25(10):27-30.
,1999.Probability Forecast of Temperature Variation Tendencies with Pattern Cluster Technique[J].Meteor Mon,25(10):27-30.