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中文摘要: 利用三峡地区东部6个站1961—1994年10月—1月的逐日降水量资料和逐日历史天气图资料，统计分析500hPa环流形势呈“大U”型的条件下，三峡地区有无区域性强降水的前期指标，并用1995年资料进行检验，1996年资料进行试报。结果表明可根据500hPa天气图上小槽位置、孟加拉湾槽位置及地面天气图上锋面位置3个指标的组合并结合其它消空条件能较好地预报“大U”型环流形势下三峡地区有无区域性强降水，从而为三峡地区预报员提供实用的预报指标。
中文关键词: 预报,指标,强降水
Abstract:Using the 6 stations precipitation data in the Sanxia area and weather chart data from October to January during 1961—1994, the prior indexes of regional severe precipitation in Sanxia area are analysed under 500hPa circulation of "big U"pattern. It is tested using the data in 1995 and trial forcasted using the data in 1996. The Result shows that according to the combination of indexes including 500hPa small trough-line, trough-line over the Bay of Bengal and frontal-line on surface chart, added to some other conditions,it may be forecasted if there is regional severe Precipitation under the 500hPa circulation of "big U"pattern.
keywords: forecast, indexes, severe precipitation
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基金项目:中国气象局“长江三峡工程大江截流气象保障服务技术开发”课题资助
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引用文本：
周小刚,邓北胜,熊廷南,1997.三峡地区枯水期强降水前期指标分析[J].气象,23(5):26-29.
,1997.The Prior Indexes Analysis of Regional severe Precipitation in dry season in Sanxia Area[J].Meteor Mon,23(5):26-29.
周小刚,邓北胜,熊廷南,1997.三峡地区枯水期强降水前期指标分析[J].气象,23(5):26-29.
,1997.The Prior Indexes Analysis of Regional severe Precipitation in dry season in Sanxia Area[J].Meteor Mon,23(5):26-29.