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中文摘要: 利用1960—1994年胶东地区降水和水资源资料，用变点分析方法将35年分成A、B两个气候段。分析发现从A段到B段降水、水资源明显减少。水资源总量的变化规律和降水变化规律一致，但前者的变化率明显大于后者。地下水变化有一定持续性，气象干旱年的结束，并不意味着水文枯水年的结束。对2000年水资源供需分析表明，水的利用率要提高30％以上方能基本满足经济发展的需要。该研究对胶东地区水资源的合理开发利用、经济发展规划的制定提供了科学依据，有重要的实际意义。
中文关键词: 降水长期变化,水资源,分析预测
Abstract:35-year precipitation and water resources data (1960 -1994) in Jiaodong region are used. The precipitation data are divided into two periods by means of change-point analysis. Marked shifts between the two periods are revealed for both rainfall and water resources. The variation trends of precipitation and total amount of water resources are identical, but the former's varia tional rate is smaller than the latter's. The ground water has a sustaining feature. which means the end of drought in meteorology does not show the end of dry period in hydrology. The supply and demand analysis for the year of 2000 indicates that the utilization efficiency of water resources must be raised at least 30% in order to meet the needs of the economic development basically. The study is of practical importance and provites scientific basis for the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources and for the design of economic development plan in Jiaodong.
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基金项目:本文由自然科学基金项目“山东气候变化对水资源影响及对策研究”资助
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引用文本：
张苏平,胡桂芳,朱平盛,1996.降水长期变化对胶东地区水资源的影响[J].气象,22(11):3-9.
,1996.Impacts of Precipitation Changes on Water Resources in Jiaodong Region, Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,22(11):3-9.
张苏平,胡桂芳,朱平盛,1996.降水长期变化对胶东地区水资源的影响[J].气象,22(11):3-9.
,1996.Impacts of Precipitation Changes on Water Resources in Jiaodong Region, Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,22(11):3-9.