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中文摘要: 以武汉中心气象台日常业务降水预报项目为研究对象，选择梅雨期12—36小时预报时段，以灰色系统理论的生成函数为基础，运用灰色预测模型将LAFS模式等降水量预报集成，制作了武汉单站降水量分级（弱降水，中等强度降水和强降水）预报。运用回归分析方法，将LAFS资料的降水量预告场订正到湖北省5个自然区，制作湖北省区域降水分级预报。经过1993年、1994年准业务试验，获得了较好的效果。
中文关键词: 灰色预测，回归分析，分级降水预报
Abstract:12-36h rainfall forecast has been studied in 5 feature regions of Hubei and Wuhan station during mei-yu period. It was divided into 3 grades (light rain.moderate rain and heavyrain). Based on the grey forecast model,the precipitation predictand's consensus of vary numerical model (Beijing LAFS、Beijing B、Japan etc.)was made for the station;Using methodof regression analysis,rainfall predictions was given with LAFS data. Semi-operational prediction was conducted in 1993 and 1994. Better forecasting results were achieved.
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引用文本：
李才媛,1996.湖北省梅雨期分级降水预报试验[J].气象,22(1):49-52.
,1996.The Experiment of Classification Rainfall forecast in Hubei During Mei-yu Period[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):49-52.
李才媛,1996.湖北省梅雨期分级降水预报试验[J].气象,22(1):49-52.
,1996.The Experiment of Classification Rainfall forecast in Hubei During Mei-yu Period[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):49-52.