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中文摘要: 采用逐步回归和三级判别方案，以T4248小时预报资料代替实况诊断量作汛期安徽分区暴雨预报。通过1993年和1994年试验结果表明：（1）两方案预报暴雨的CSI评分为0.30—0.71，对省级分区暴雨预报有一定的参考价值；（2）逐步回归方案的预报效果优于三级判别；（3）丰梅年T42模式的预报效果好干枯梅年。
中文关键词: T42产品，诊断资料，逐步回归，三级判别，暴雨预报
Abstract:The sectional torrential rain forecast in Anhui province was discussed during flood period with the application of the step wise regression and triple discriminatory with T42 predicting data of 48 hours instead of the real-time diagnosis. This test was conducted during 1993-1994. Its results show that (1) the CSI of the torrential rain prediction was from 0.30 to 0.71,both methods could be used in the torrential rain forecast in Anhui; (2) the predictingeffect of the regression was better than discriminatory; (3)the predicting effect in surplusMei-yu rainfall was better than that in deficient Mei-yu years.
keywords: T42 output,diagnosis data,stepwise regression,triple discriminatory,torrential rain forecasting
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引用文本：
张明玉,袁野,杨金锡,1996.用T42产品试作安徽12-36小时暴雨预报[J].气象,22(1):46-48.
,1996.36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):46-48.
张明玉,袁野,杨金锡,1996.用T42产品试作安徽12-36小时暴雨预报[J].气象,22(1):46-48.
,1996.36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):46-48.