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气象:1995,21(12):35-37
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诊断分析在数值预报产品释用中的探讨
(内蒙古自治区气象台,呼和浩特 010051)
The Preliminary Study on the Application of Diagnostic Analysis to the Numerical Prediction Products
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中文摘要: 针对地方性天气预报特点,根据现有数值预报产品及实时探空资料的接收情况,作者利用中尺度数值预报模式MM4引入中尺度信息,提出一个实际可行的夏季降水预报方案,以求提高区域范围内具有明显突发性对流降水的预报能力。作法是用MM4模式计算逐日物理量诊断场,加入同期的欧洲中心数值预报产品,共计41个场作为预报因子场;应用典型相关分析法,并结合逐步判别和逐步回归法,计算得出9个分区和8个单站中雨以上降水预报方程。降水预报方程的因子变量多数为中尺度诊断分析场构成的典型团子,可以认为,MM4模式计算得出的中尺度信息对预报中雨以上降水是有贡献的。
Abstract:In view of the characteristics of local weather prediction, the available numerical prediction products as well as the real-time radiosonde data, a practical scheme for predicting the summer precipitation is presented by introducing mesoscale data to the mesoscale numerical prediction model MM4 in order to increase the accuracy of prediction to the unexpected convective precipitation. The diagnostic field of the daily physical factors were calculated by using MM4 model. These calculation results are added into the numerical prediction production of the ECMWF and obtained 41 prediction fields, then the precipitation prediction equation is developed by using the canonical correlation analysis,successive regression as well as discriminatory analysis methods.
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引用文本:
刘景涛,李喜仓,李运绵,孙永刚,1995.诊断分析在数值预报产品释用中的探讨[J].气象,21(12):35-37.
,1995.The Preliminary Study on the Application of Diagnostic Analysis to the Numerical Prediction Products[J].Meteor Mon,21(12):35-37.