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气象:1994,20(12):19-26
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中国近百年来的温度变化
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Temperature Variation in China during the Last 100 years
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中文摘要: 对我国近百年来温度变化的研究工作和结果作了综述。发现我国增温趋势与北半球的情况大致相似,但在具体的变化过程和幅度上又与全球变化存在明显差异。这包括:(1)我国温度出现最高的时期是在40年代,而不是80年代以后;(2)我国的西南地区自50年代以来一直在降温,增暖主要出现在东北、华北和西北西部地区;(3)近百年来中国温度变化出现两次突变,一次在1919年,一次在1952年。作者还讨论了城市化对温度测量的影响以及订正的方法。由于中国温度变化的幅度并未超过气候自然变率的范围,所以目前还不能确定这种变化是由人类活动引起的。
Abstract:A review of achievements on temperature variation during the last 100 years in China is made. It is found that the general tendency of warming in China is similar to that in the Northern Hemisphere,but with some significant differences in the evolutive process and warming magnitudes. These differences include (1 ) the peak temperature in China occurred in the 40's rather than after the 80's; (2 )since the 50's the cooling was observed in southwest China while the warming mainly occurred in Northeast China, North China and (3) the two sudden changes in temperature variations in China during the last 100 years were observed, with the first one occurred in 1919 and the second one in 1952. The effect of urbanization on the measurements of air temperature and their correction methods are also discussed. The amplitude of the temperature variation in China during the last 100 years does not exceed the range of natural climate fluctuations. Therefore,it is uncertain that the above temperature variation is caused by human activity.
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引用文本:
丁一汇,戴晓苏,1994.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象,20(12):19-26.
,1994.Temperature Variation in China during the Last 100 years[J].Meteor Mon,20(12):19-26.