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中文摘要: 本文在台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)扩大样本量以后,重新求出运动方程中的主要作用力的回归表达式。然后,利用调整后的方案(简称SD-85)对1987年台风路径的业务预报作了试验,结果表明该方案的业务预报性能优于SD-75预报方案。
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Abstract:The regression expressions of principal forces in th'e motion equation were recalculated after enlarging of sizes of the samples relative to the Philosophy of the statistical-dynamic model (SD-75) for typhoon track forecast. Then a test on the operational forecasts of typhoon track in the 1987 typhoon season was carried out, using the revised model (called SD-85).The results indicate that the later is more advanced than the former in respect of prodictive characteristics.
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薛宗元,吴天泉,李多武,费亮,徐静远,1988.对台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)的统计参数作调整的试验[J].气象,14(8):20-24.
,1988.A test on revising of the statistical parametersin the operational model (SD-75) for typhoontrack forecast[J].Meteor Mon,14(8):20-24.
薛宗元,吴天泉,李多武,费亮,徐静远,1988.对台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)的统计参数作调整的试验[J].气象,14(8):20-24.
,1988.A test on revising of the statistical parametersin the operational model (SD-75) for typhoontrack forecast[J].Meteor Mon,14(8):20-24.