ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 52,Issue 8,2026 Table of Contents
2026, 52(8):905-915.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.061101
Abstract:
The satellite-ground temperature difference was derived from the cloud top temperature of FY-4B and the air temperature of automatic weather stations. Combined with the cloud top height (CTH) observed by cloud radar, the satellite-ground vertical mean temperature lapse rate (SG-VMTR) was calculated and compared with the vertical temperature lapse rate (γ) fitted from the radiosonde temperature profile at the same stations. Meanwhile, the SG-VMTR was applied to other adjacent satellite pixels to achieve the fusion inversion of the satellite CTH in the surrounding areas of the cloud radar, and the inversion results were verified and analyzed. The results show that the SG-VMTR and γ values calculated at the same station were closely aligned and exhibited consistent temporal trends. The variation trends and statistical characteristics of the SG-VMTR at adjacent cloud radar stations were similar and can be used as substitutes to a certain extent. The correlation coefficient between the fused satellite-derived CTH and the cloud radar observed CTH was 0.90, while the root mean square error decreased by 720 m and the bias reduced to -17.7 m compared to pre-fusion results. This study lays a foundation for developing subsequent satellite-ground fusion regional CTH products.
The satellite-ground temperature difference was derived from the cloud top temperature of FY-4B and the air temperature of automatic weather stations. Combined with the cloud top height (CTH) observed by cloud radar, the satellite-ground vertical mean temperature lapse rate (SG-VMTR) was calculated and compared with the vertical temperature lapse rate (γ) fitted from the radiosonde temperature profile at the same stations. Meanwhile, the SG-VMTR was applied to other adjacent satellite pixels to achieve the fusion inversion of the satellite CTH in the surrounding areas of the cloud radar, and the inversion results were verified and analyzed. The results show that the SG-VMTR and γ values calculated at the same station were closely aligned and exhibited consistent temporal trends. The variation trends and statistical characteristics of the SG-VMTR at adjacent cloud radar stations were similar and can be used as substitutes to a certain extent. The correlation coefficient between the fused satellite-derived CTH and the cloud radar observed CTH was 0.90, while the root mean square error decreased by 720 m and the bias reduced to -17.7 m compared to pre-fusion results. This study lays a foundation for developing subsequent satellite-ground fusion regional CTH products.
2026, 52(8):916-927.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.050901
Abstract:
Based on the cloud products from FY-4A Satellite and the raindrop spectrometer data in Zhejiang Province, this paper analyzes the characteristics of summer precipitation and its relationship with cloud parameters from 2020 to 2022. The results show that, according to the precipitation intensity, the occurrence frequency of moderate rainfall is the highest in summer in Zhejiang, torrential rainfall mostly occurs in the mountainous areas of southern Zhejiang, and the occurrence frequency of convective cloud precipitation in this area is also the highest. The relationship between precipitation characteristics and cloud parameters is manifested as follows. The occurence frequency of light rainfall is the highest for water cloud and cirrus cloud, supercooled water cloud and mixed cloud tend to result in moderate to heavy rainfall, ice cloud has the highest occurence frequency to produce heavy rainfall, particularly torrential rainfall and overlap cloud has similar precipitation features to water cloud. The average precipitation intensity increases with the decrease of cloud top temperature (CTT) and with the increase of cloud optical thickness (COT)， but its correlation with cloud effective particle radius (CER) is not significant in this study. The combination of two parameters (CTT and COT) demonstrates the gradient variation of precipitation intensity and its higher sensitivity to COT, with heavy precipitation more likely to occur under low CTT and high COT. Incorporating CER to construct a three-parameter combination further reflects the effect of cloud droplet coalescence efficiency on precipitation microphysical processes, leading to more precise precipitation estimation. Convective cloud precipitation has the characteristics of lower CTT and higher COT compared with stratiform precipitation, but the stratiform precipitation is often accompanied by convective processes.
Based on the cloud products from FY-4A Satellite and the raindrop spectrometer data in Zhejiang Province, this paper analyzes the characteristics of summer precipitation and its relationship with cloud parameters from 2020 to 2022. The results show that, according to the precipitation intensity, the occurrence frequency of moderate rainfall is the highest in summer in Zhejiang, torrential rainfall mostly occurs in the mountainous areas of southern Zhejiang, and the occurrence frequency of convective cloud precipitation in this area is also the highest. The relationship between precipitation characteristics and cloud parameters is manifested as follows. The occurence frequency of light rainfall is the highest for water cloud and cirrus cloud, supercooled water cloud and mixed cloud tend to result in moderate to heavy rainfall, ice cloud has the highest occurence frequency to produce heavy rainfall, particularly torrential rainfall and overlap cloud has similar precipitation features to water cloud. The average precipitation intensity increases with the decrease of cloud top temperature (CTT) and with the increase of cloud optical thickness (COT)， but its correlation with cloud effective particle radius (CER) is not significant in this study. The combination of two parameters (CTT and COT) demonstrates the gradient variation of precipitation intensity and its higher sensitivity to COT, with heavy precipitation more likely to occur under low CTT and high COT. Incorporating CER to construct a three-parameter combination further reflects the effect of cloud droplet coalescence efficiency on precipitation microphysical processes, leading to more precise precipitation estimation. Convective cloud precipitation has the characteristics of lower CTT and higher COT compared with stratiform precipitation, but the stratiform precipitation is often accompanied by convective processes.
2026, 52(8):928-941.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.062501
Abstract:
Based on satellite observations and the community radiative transfer model (CRTM), this paper evaluates the simulation results of three cloud microphysical schemes (Morrison, Thompson, and WD6) aiming at a heavy precipitation event in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The heavy precipitation once occurred from 29 June to 1 July 2016 and was brought by the clouds moving eastward from the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that compared to the high-resolution fused satellite precipitation observations, the three cloud microphysical schemes perform very well as a whole. They all successfully simulate the beginning, developing and the maturing stages of the precipitation event, of which the performance of Morrison scheme is the best. However, the three schemes have greater uncertainties in simulating the solid hydrometeor. Relative to the ERA5 cloud cover data and the brightness temperature observation from Himawari-8, the three schemes overestimate the high cloud cover but underestimate the mid-low cloud cover. Compared to the satellite-retrieved cloud products, it is found that the downward shortwave radiations simulated by the three schemes are smaller in the precipitation area due to the smaller contents of cloud ice and cloud water as well as the larger cloud effective radius. Furthermore, the initial field water vapor used in WRF model simulation is less than the GPS atmospheric precipitable water in the precipitation area. The error of extreme precipitation simulation is the result of the combined effects of thermodynamics, dynamics, and cloud physics. These findings could serve as a reference for the evaluation and improvement of extreme precipitation simulation.
Based on satellite observations and the community radiative transfer model (CRTM), this paper evaluates the simulation results of three cloud microphysical schemes (Morrison, Thompson, and WD6) aiming at a heavy precipitation event in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The heavy precipitation once occurred from 29 June to 1 July 2016 and was brought by the clouds moving eastward from the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that compared to the high-resolution fused satellite precipitation observations, the three cloud microphysical schemes perform very well as a whole. They all successfully simulate the beginning, developing and the maturing stages of the precipitation event, of which the performance of Morrison scheme is the best. However, the three schemes have greater uncertainties in simulating the solid hydrometeor. Relative to the ERA5 cloud cover data and the brightness temperature observation from Himawari-8, the three schemes overestimate the high cloud cover but underestimate the mid-low cloud cover. Compared to the satellite-retrieved cloud products, it is found that the downward shortwave radiations simulated by the three schemes are smaller in the precipitation area due to the smaller contents of cloud ice and cloud water as well as the larger cloud effective radius. Furthermore, the initial field water vapor used in WRF model simulation is less than the GPS atmospheric precipitable water in the precipitation area. The error of extreme precipitation simulation is the result of the combined effects of thermodynamics, dynamics, and cloud physics. These findings could serve as a reference for the evaluation and improvement of extreme precipitation simulation.
2026, 52(8):942-958.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.012301
Abstract:
In this study, we conduct a statistical verification and analysis on the performance of near-surface temperature, wind speed and precipitation forecasts during the warm season in Zhejiang Province using CMA regional ensemble prediction systems at 3 km and 10 km horizontal resolutions (hereinafter referred to as CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km). The results show that both CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km can effectively capture the diurnal variations of near-surface meteorological elements, but their forecasts exhibit a negative bias in temperature, a general overestimation of wind speed, and a general overestimation of precipitation from afternoon to early morning. Compared to CMA-REPS 10 km, CMA-REPS 3 km can effectively reduce forecast errors of temperature and wind speed, with a maximum decrease of 23.1% in continuous ranked probability score and an improvement in the area of relative operation characteristic of precipitation forecast by up to 19%. Meanwhile, CMA-REPS 3 km demonstrates more superior fraction skill score for heavy precipitation neighborhood space and provides more accurate forecasts in diurnal variations of near-surface elements. However, the early ensemble spread is smaller in the forecast. In complex terrains, CMA-REPS 3 km shows significant improvements in the probability forecast errors of temperature and wind speed and also in the spread-skill relationships for wind speed in hilly and mountainous and for temperature in plain and basin areas. Not only that, CMA-REPS 3 km has better capability for the ensemble spread of heavy precipitation and the development of rain bands in steep terrain areas. As such, CMA-REPS 3 km has superior forecasting capability for the near-surface elements in complex terrains, particularly for 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed and precipitation. These findings could serve as a scientific basis for objectively evaluating the two CMA regional ensemble prediction systems under different topographic conditions and their subsequent improvements in ensemble forecasting methods.
In this study, we conduct a statistical verification and analysis on the performance of near-surface temperature, wind speed and precipitation forecasts during the warm season in Zhejiang Province using CMA regional ensemble prediction systems at 3 km and 10 km horizontal resolutions (hereinafter referred to as CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km). The results show that both CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km can effectively capture the diurnal variations of near-surface meteorological elements, but their forecasts exhibit a negative bias in temperature, a general overestimation of wind speed, and a general overestimation of precipitation from afternoon to early morning. Compared to CMA-REPS 10 km, CMA-REPS 3 km can effectively reduce forecast errors of temperature and wind speed, with a maximum decrease of 23.1% in continuous ranked probability score and an improvement in the area of relative operation characteristic of precipitation forecast by up to 19%. Meanwhile, CMA-REPS 3 km demonstrates more superior fraction skill score for heavy precipitation neighborhood space and provides more accurate forecasts in diurnal variations of near-surface elements. However, the early ensemble spread is smaller in the forecast. In complex terrains, CMA-REPS 3 km shows significant improvements in the probability forecast errors of temperature and wind speed and also in the spread-skill relationships for wind speed in hilly and mountainous and for temperature in plain and basin areas. Not only that, CMA-REPS 3 km has better capability for the ensemble spread of heavy precipitation and the development of rain bands in steep terrain areas. As such, CMA-REPS 3 km has superior forecasting capability for the near-surface elements in complex terrains, particularly for 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed and precipitation. These findings could serve as a scientific basis for objectively evaluating the two CMA regional ensemble prediction systems under different topographic conditions and their subsequent improvements in ensemble forecasting methods.
2026, 52(8):959-973.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.041601
Abstract:
To analyze the impact of the three-moment cloud microphysics scheme IAP-LACS on the simulation of sea fog along the coast of Zhejiang Province, this paper selects two two-moment cloud microphysics schemes (Morrison05 and Thompson08) from the WRF model for comparison. A high-concentration, wide-range, and high-impact sea fog event along the coast of Zhejiang in April 2021 is simulated and analyzed by these schemes. Moreover, Stoelinga-Warner (SW99) algorithm and NOAA/FSL algorithm are used to conduct visibility diagnosis. The results indicate that the three schemes can all simulate the occurrence of this sea fog event, but differences remain in terms of fog intensity and spatial extent. The IAP-LACS scheme performs best in simulating both the spatial distribution and intensity of the fog, achieving the highest TS score. The FSL algorithm outperforms the SW99 algorithm in diagnosing the spatial extent of the fog but is less accurate in representing its intensity. The IAP-LACS scheme can more accurately simulate the large-value areas of low-level cloud water content in the Zhoushan Islands and the Taizhou-Wenzhou coastal region. It can also better capture the magnitude and increasing trend of cloud water content along the Sanshan Sluice coastal area from 22:00 BT 1 to 00:00 BT 2 April. The improvement in simulating low-level cloud water content by the IAP-LACS scheme is a key factor in enhancing the forecast accuracy of this sea fog event. Compared to the other two schemes, the IAP-LACS scheme has the advantage of providing cloud droplet number concentration output. The output of visibility diagnostic scheme based on both cloud droplet number concentration and cloud water content results is closer to observations in terms of fog extent and intensity.
To analyze the impact of the three-moment cloud microphysics scheme IAP-LACS on the simulation of sea fog along the coast of Zhejiang Province, this paper selects two two-moment cloud microphysics schemes (Morrison05 and Thompson08) from the WRF model for comparison. A high-concentration, wide-range, and high-impact sea fog event along the coast of Zhejiang in April 2021 is simulated and analyzed by these schemes. Moreover, Stoelinga-Warner (SW99) algorithm and NOAA/FSL algorithm are used to conduct visibility diagnosis. The results indicate that the three schemes can all simulate the occurrence of this sea fog event, but differences remain in terms of fog intensity and spatial extent. The IAP-LACS scheme performs best in simulating both the spatial distribution and intensity of the fog, achieving the highest TS score. The FSL algorithm outperforms the SW99 algorithm in diagnosing the spatial extent of the fog but is less accurate in representing its intensity. The IAP-LACS scheme can more accurately simulate the large-value areas of low-level cloud water content in the Zhoushan Islands and the Taizhou-Wenzhou coastal region. It can also better capture the magnitude and increasing trend of cloud water content along the Sanshan Sluice coastal area from 22:00 BT 1 to 00:00 BT 2 April. The improvement in simulating low-level cloud water content by the IAP-LACS scheme is a key factor in enhancing the forecast accuracy of this sea fog event. Compared to the other two schemes, the IAP-LACS scheme has the advantage of providing cloud droplet number concentration output. The output of visibility diagnostic scheme based on both cloud droplet number concentration and cloud water content results is closer to observations in terms of fog extent and intensity.
2026, 52(8):974-985.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.011201
Abstract:
On 17 and during 24-26 December 2021, Shandong Peninsula experienced two BohaiSea sea-effect snowfall events. The cold air intensity was stronger and snowfall duration was longer during the 24-26 process than that on 17, but the total snowfall amount was less and intensity of snowfall was weaker. In this paper, thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics are analyzed and compared based on the data of moored buoy station, S-band Doppler weather radar, conventional sounding, hourly snowfall observation from ground automatic meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results are as follows. In 24-26 process, air-sea temperature difference between sea surface and 850 hPa was 28℃, exceeding that on 17 (24℃). However, the snowfall process in 24-26 displayed an intermittent weakening of low-level cold advection, with advection intensities consistently weaker than on 17. This weaker thermal advection impacted the development of low-level thermodynamic conditions. On 17, the intense core of cold advection extended vertically to 700-500 hPa, whereas during the snowfall from 24 to 26, it was confined to 875-750 hPa. Consequently, the inversion layer developed upward above the cold advection center and influenced the depth of conditionally unstable layer beneath the inversion layer, which limited the vertical extent of shallow convective clouds and ultimately diminished snowfall intensity. During the second snowfall phase from 24 to 26, steering wind direction over the Bohai Sea and its upstream regions had a larger westerly component. Thus, the low-level warm tongue, mesoscale shear line and heavy snowfall echo band all displayed larger zonal component and positioned predominantly offshore, resulting in inconspicuous snowfall over the Shandong Peninsula. Cold advection constituted a primary physical driver modulating the thermal structure of sea-effect snowfall. It indirectly controlled the initiation and evolution of mesoscale shear lines by inducing a low-level warm tongue, thereby providing dynamical lifting and organi-zational mechanism over snowfall echo structures and ultimately shaping the dynamical structure of snowfall. When forecasting such snowfall, it is essential to make an integrated dynamic analysis of cold advection developmental stages and its three-dimensional spatial structure and intensity evolution on low-level. To be specific, the air-sea temperature difference, absolute moisture content within the boundary layer, inversion layer height, thickness of the conditionally unstable layer and steering wind direction should be considered more. Diagnosing mesoscale characteristics such as the position, orientation and intensity of low-level warm tongue and shear line is also imperative.
On 17 and during 24-26 December 2021, Shandong Peninsula experienced two BohaiSea sea-effect snowfall events. The cold air intensity was stronger and snowfall duration was longer during the 24-26 process than that on 17, but the total snowfall amount was less and intensity of snowfall was weaker. In this paper, thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics are analyzed and compared based on the data of moored buoy station, S-band Doppler weather radar, conventional sounding, hourly snowfall observation from ground automatic meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results are as follows. In 24-26 process, air-sea temperature difference between sea surface and 850 hPa was 28℃, exceeding that on 17 (24℃). However, the snowfall process in 24-26 displayed an intermittent weakening of low-level cold advection, with advection intensities consistently weaker than on 17. This weaker thermal advection impacted the development of low-level thermodynamic conditions. On 17, the intense core of cold advection extended vertically to 700-500 hPa, whereas during the snowfall from 24 to 26, it was confined to 875-750 hPa. Consequently, the inversion layer developed upward above the cold advection center and influenced the depth of conditionally unstable layer beneath the inversion layer, which limited the vertical extent of shallow convective clouds and ultimately diminished snowfall intensity. During the second snowfall phase from 24 to 26, steering wind direction over the Bohai Sea and its upstream regions had a larger westerly component. Thus, the low-level warm tongue, mesoscale shear line and heavy snowfall echo band all displayed larger zonal component and positioned predominantly offshore, resulting in inconspicuous snowfall over the Shandong Peninsula. Cold advection constituted a primary physical driver modulating the thermal structure of sea-effect snowfall. It indirectly controlled the initiation and evolution of mesoscale shear lines by inducing a low-level warm tongue, thereby providing dynamical lifting and organi-zational mechanism over snowfall echo structures and ultimately shaping the dynamical structure of snowfall. When forecasting such snowfall, it is essential to make an integrated dynamic analysis of cold advection developmental stages and its three-dimensional spatial structure and intensity evolution on low-level. To be specific, the air-sea temperature difference, absolute moisture content within the boundary layer, inversion layer height, thickness of the conditionally unstable layer and steering wind direction should be considered more. Diagnosing mesoscale characteristics such as the position, orientation and intensity of low-level warm tongue and shear line is also imperative.
2026, 52(8):986-998.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.112401
Abstract:
To conduct a quantitative study on the sidelobe echoes of the S-band dual-polarization weather radar, based on the plan position indicator (PPI) data of five SAD-type doppler dual-polarization weather radars in Changsha, Chenzhou, Changde, Xiangxi and Huaihua in Hunan Province from 2021 to 2025, 445 sidelobe echo samples were manually screened in this study. On this basis, a numerical matrix was constructed and the values of sidelobe echoes from four types of products were extracted, including horizontal polarization reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), correlation coefficient (CC), and specific differential phase (KDP). Statistical analysis was conducted on the spatial distribution characteristics of sidelobe echoes and the average value characteristics of various products. The results show that the sidelobe echoes are evenly distributed in the east-west direction, with fewer echoes in the south and more in the north, in the radar polar coordinate system. The areas with the highest occurrence frequency of sidelobe echoes are concentrated in the range from the radar static cone area to 100 km and at the melting layer height of 3.0-4.0 km. The sidelobe echoes mainly appear within the range of ±6 km in radial distance from the high echo core and 4°-40° in azimuth, and the highest frequency is located at the same radial distance as the high echo core and 12°-13° azimuth on the lateral side. The sidelobe echoes have significant low-value characteristics in radar polarization parameters. 75% of the sidelobe echoes exhibit ZH ≤ 8.0 dBz, ZDR ≤ 0.56 dB, and CC ≤ 0.92, with ZH most frequently occurring in 0-5 dBz, ZDR in 0-1 dB, and CC in 0.9-1.0. Although the low values of polarimetric radar variables in sidelobe echoes are distinct, 26.0% of the samples with azimuthal spans ≥30° exhibit a terminal ZDR ≥ 5 dB. The research results are conducive to improving the identification efficiency of sidelobe echoes and are a valuable basis for future’s automatic identification of sidelobe echoes.
To conduct a quantitative study on the sidelobe echoes of the S-band dual-polarization weather radar, based on the plan position indicator (PPI) data of five SAD-type doppler dual-polarization weather radars in Changsha, Chenzhou, Changde, Xiangxi and Huaihua in Hunan Province from 2021 to 2025, 445 sidelobe echo samples were manually screened in this study. On this basis, a numerical matrix was constructed and the values of sidelobe echoes from four types of products were extracted, including horizontal polarization reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), correlation coefficient (CC), and specific differential phase (KDP). Statistical analysis was conducted on the spatial distribution characteristics of sidelobe echoes and the average value characteristics of various products. The results show that the sidelobe echoes are evenly distributed in the east-west direction, with fewer echoes in the south and more in the north, in the radar polar coordinate system. The areas with the highest occurrence frequency of sidelobe echoes are concentrated in the range from the radar static cone area to 100 km and at the melting layer height of 3.0-4.0 km. The sidelobe echoes mainly appear within the range of ±6 km in radial distance from the high echo core and 4°-40° in azimuth, and the highest frequency is located at the same radial distance as the high echo core and 12°-13° azimuth on the lateral side. The sidelobe echoes have significant low-value characteristics in radar polarization parameters. 75% of the sidelobe echoes exhibit ZH ≤ 8.0 dBz, ZDR ≤ 0.56 dB, and CC ≤ 0.92, with ZH most frequently occurring in 0-5 dBz, ZDR in 0-1 dB, and CC in 0.9-1.0. Although the low values of polarimetric radar variables in sidelobe echoes are distinct, 26.0% of the samples with azimuthal spans ≥30° exhibit a terminal ZDR ≥ 5 dB. The research results are conducive to improving the identification efficiency of sidelobe echoes and are a valuable basis for future’s automatic identification of sidelobe echoes.
2026, 52(8):999-1007.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.010602
Abstract:
Using wind-measuring lidar wind profiler data and the wind profile exponent (WPE) method, we calculate the WPE within the 50-500 m height range under different surface wind conditions in this study. Then the results are validated using data from 50 meteorological stations with observation heights exceeding 40 m. The results indicate that the WPE retrieved from wind-measuring lidar has the problem of systematic overestimation, with the error magnitude closely related to the building density and height characteristics of the observation area. To address this issue, building density and building average height parameters on a 100 m×100 m grid are introduced to develop a multi-factor-driven dynamic correction algorithm for the WPE, which overcomes the limitation of traditional methods that rely solely on a single roughness parameter. After correction, 91.7% of the wind force calculation errors are confined within the range of 1 level, with 50.1% showing zero error. On this basis, a three-dimensional high-level wind field reconstruction model tailored for urban complex building environments is further developed. This model has a horizontal resolution of 100 m and vertical coverage from 50 to 500 m, enabling real-time monitoring every 5 min and forecast outputs up to 168 h. The model can provide a low-cost, high-precision wind disaster prevention and control technology pathway for urban high-level operations, having business application potential and engineering value.
Using wind-measuring lidar wind profiler data and the wind profile exponent (WPE) method, we calculate the WPE within the 50-500 m height range under different surface wind conditions in this study. Then the results are validated using data from 50 meteorological stations with observation heights exceeding 40 m. The results indicate that the WPE retrieved from wind-measuring lidar has the problem of systematic overestimation, with the error magnitude closely related to the building density and height characteristics of the observation area. To address this issue, building density and building average height parameters on a 100 m×100 m grid are introduced to develop a multi-factor-driven dynamic correction algorithm for the WPE, which overcomes the limitation of traditional methods that rely solely on a single roughness parameter. After correction, 91.7% of the wind force calculation errors are confined within the range of 1 level, with 50.1% showing zero error. On this basis, a three-dimensional high-level wind field reconstruction model tailored for urban complex building environments is further developed. This model has a horizontal resolution of 100 m and vertical coverage from 50 to 500 m, enabling real-time monitoring every 5 min and forecast outputs up to 168 h. The model can provide a low-cost, high-precision wind disaster prevention and control technology pathway for urban high-level operations, having business application potential and engineering value.
2026, 52(8):1008-1021.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.082001
Abstract:
Based on rice phenological stages and meteorological observation data from nationwide single-season rice and double-season rice in major rice production areas in China from 1991 to 2024, combined with major agrometeorological disaster indicators, this paper constructs the disaster intensity and hazard indices and analyzes the changing characteristics of heat stress, cold stress, drought, and compound heat and drought stresses. The results indicate that in the period of 1991-2024, heat stress in single-season rice intensified with the tendency of 0.65 increment per 10 years, and the significant increment was observed after 2010 with the highest intensity seen in 2022. For early rice, heat stress has been gradually increasing since 2017. Obstruction-type chilling injury to rice in Northeast China exhibited a weakening trend, seldom occurring during 2023-2024. The intensity of cold dew wind for late rice was higher during 2017-2022, but has become weakening during 2023-2024. Drought intensity has fluctuated interannually, with the highest intensity for single-season rice and late rice occurring in 2022, and the affected stations of the two account for higher proportions than that for early rice. The compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are more severe than on early rice. Regarding the spatial distribution of high disaster risks, heat stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, central Chongqing, eastern Hubei and western Hunan, while heat stresses on early rice are located in central Zhejiang, central Jiangxi, eastern Hunan and central Fujian. The high risks of obstruction-type chilling injury to single-season rice have been identified in northeastern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin, and the cold dew wind risk to late rice is demonstrated in south Anhui, south Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The high risks of drought are highlighted in western part of Northeast China and northern part of low reaches of the Yangtze River Basin for single-season rice, southern Guangdong and Hainan for early rice, and eastern Hubei, north-central Jiangxi and east-central Hunan for late rice. High risks of compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, north-central Chongqing, northeastern Hubei and western Hunan, while for early rice, the stress is located in northern Zhejiang and southeastern Hunan. In these rice production areas exposed to high disaster risks, above findings can help guide prevention and reduction of specific disasters.
Based on rice phenological stages and meteorological observation data from nationwide single-season rice and double-season rice in major rice production areas in China from 1991 to 2024, combined with major agrometeorological disaster indicators, this paper constructs the disaster intensity and hazard indices and analyzes the changing characteristics of heat stress, cold stress, drought, and compound heat and drought stresses. The results indicate that in the period of 1991-2024, heat stress in single-season rice intensified with the tendency of 0.65 increment per 10 years, and the significant increment was observed after 2010 with the highest intensity seen in 2022. For early rice, heat stress has been gradually increasing since 2017. Obstruction-type chilling injury to rice in Northeast China exhibited a weakening trend, seldom occurring during 2023-2024. The intensity of cold dew wind for late rice was higher during 2017-2022, but has become weakening during 2023-2024. Drought intensity has fluctuated interannually, with the highest intensity for single-season rice and late rice occurring in 2022, and the affected stations of the two account for higher proportions than that for early rice. The compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are more severe than on early rice. Regarding the spatial distribution of high disaster risks, heat stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, central Chongqing, eastern Hubei and western Hunan, while heat stresses on early rice are located in central Zhejiang, central Jiangxi, eastern Hunan and central Fujian. The high risks of obstruction-type chilling injury to single-season rice have been identified in northeastern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin, and the cold dew wind risk to late rice is demonstrated in south Anhui, south Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The high risks of drought are highlighted in western part of Northeast China and northern part of low reaches of the Yangtze River Basin for single-season rice, southern Guangdong and Hainan for early rice, and eastern Hubei, north-central Jiangxi and east-central Hunan for late rice. High risks of compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, north-central Chongqing, northeastern Hubei and western Hunan, while for early rice, the stress is located in northern Zhejiang and southeastern Hunan. In these rice production areas exposed to high disaster risks, above findings can help guide prevention and reduction of specific disasters.
2026, 52(8):1022-1032.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.071401
Abstract:
The main characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation in May 2026 are that the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex exhibited a mono-polar distribution with intensity slightly stronger than normal. The circulation in middle-high latitudes transformed from a three-wave pattern in winter to a four-wave pattern in summer. Over the Eurasian continent, the circulation was distributed in a pattern of “two-trough-one-ridge” in the first ten days, turned to a “one-trough-two-ridge” shape in the second ten days, and then into a “two-trough-two-ridge” appearance in the last ten days. The western Pacific subtropical high was stronger and located more westward than usual. The monthly mean temperature across China was 17.2℃, 0.7℃ higher than the climatological average, ranking as the 7th highest for the same period since 1961. The monthly precipitation averaged 77.0 mm, 10% more than in the same period of normal years. During this month, four regional torrential rain events and eight severe convection processes occurred in China. The extreme nature of severe precipitation was prominent, with daily precipitation at six stations including Enping in Guangdong Province and Jingzhou in Hubei Province exceeding their historical records. On 31 May, a large-scale thunderstorm gale event occurred in Northeast China, with the peak wind speed in Suihua, Heilongjiang Province, reaching 44.3 m·s-1. At the same time, tornado event was observed in Jilin Province. In addition, two sand-dust events affected China, and the first high-temperature event of this year appeared in regions south of the Yangtze River， South China and eastern Southwest China from 25 to 29.
The main characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation in May 2026 are that the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex exhibited a mono-polar distribution with intensity slightly stronger than normal. The circulation in middle-high latitudes transformed from a three-wave pattern in winter to a four-wave pattern in summer. Over the Eurasian continent, the circulation was distributed in a pattern of “two-trough-one-ridge” in the first ten days, turned to a “one-trough-two-ridge” shape in the second ten days, and then into a “two-trough-two-ridge” appearance in the last ten days. The western Pacific subtropical high was stronger and located more westward than usual. The monthly mean temperature across China was 17.2℃, 0.7℃ higher than the climatological average, ranking as the 7th highest for the same period since 1961. The monthly precipitation averaged 77.0 mm, 10% more than in the same period of normal years. During this month, four regional torrential rain events and eight severe convection processes occurred in China. The extreme nature of severe precipitation was prominent, with daily precipitation at six stations including Enping in Guangdong Province and Jingzhou in Hubei Province exceeding their historical records. On 31 May, a large-scale thunderstorm gale event occurred in Northeast China, with the peak wind speed in Suihua, Heilongjiang Province, reaching 44.3 m·s-1. At the same time, tornado event was observed in Jilin Province. In addition, two sand-dust events affected China, and the first high-temperature event of this year appeared in regions south of the Yangtze River， South China and eastern Southwest China from 25 to 29.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P