ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 43,Issue 3,2017 Table of Contents
2017, 43(3):257-267.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.001
Abstract:
Clouds represent weather. Being a modulator of solar heating and thermal cooling of the Earth, clouds are also called “the shutters of the Earth”. In 1960, the first meteorological satellite was launched, demonstrating the new era of cloud observation. The acquisition of meteorological satellite cloud images deepens the understanding of the weather and climate change and accelerates the development of atmospheric sciences. In this paper, the principles and methods of cloud detection, cloud phase determination and retrieval of cloud optical thickness and effective radius using satellite data are first summarized. Then, the cloud features of synoptic scale and mesoscale weather processes are emphatically introduced. Finally, two international satellite cloud climatology projects, as well as the perspectives of future cloud observation technology, are presented.
Clouds represent weather. Being a modulator of solar heating and thermal cooling of the Earth, clouds are also called “the shutters of the Earth”. In 1960, the first meteorological satellite was launched, demonstrating the new era of cloud observation. The acquisition of meteorological satellite cloud images deepens the understanding of the weather and climate change and accelerates the development of atmospheric sciences. In this paper, the principles and methods of cloud detection, cloud phase determination and retrieval of cloud optical thickness and effective radius using satellite data are first summarized. Then, the cloud features of synoptic scale and mesoscale weather processes are emphatically introduced. Finally, two international satellite cloud climatology projects, as well as the perspectives of future cloud observation technology, are presented.
2017, 43(3):268-277.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.002
Abstract:
Based on a variety of densely observed data from automatic surface weather observation system, NCEP/GFS 0.5°×0.5° analysis data, the temperature of black bold (TBB) observed by FY2E satellite, the evolution of the heavy rainstorm process in Hubei Province during 5-6 July 2013 is analyzed. Using the highresolution output from WRF model, the evolution of the mesoβ scale systems is diagnosed. The results show that the severe convection took place in the overlay zone of positive vorticity in front of trough at 500 hPa, the shear line of low layer near jet flow nucleus, the upper divergence and the instability energy. There were three mesoβ scale systems in the largescale favorable weather situations, and the heavy rainfall groups were associated with the development of the convective systems. Considering the coalescence growth of droplets of the saturated water vapor, cloud water and cloud ice, the WRF model diagnosis is discussed through the precipitation rate of flux divergences. We have found four mesoγ scale systems in rainbands from the evening of 5 July to the morning of 6 July 2013, and the physical quantity value could quantitatively estimate the hourly rainfall intensity to some extent. Maximum probable convective precipitation rate could be a better physical quantity value to reflect the relations of the vapor condition in mesoscale rain cluster, thermodynamic condition and rainfall. Thus, it could be applied to the Doppler weather radar nowcasting.
Based on a variety of densely observed data from automatic surface weather observation system, NCEP/GFS 0.5°×0.5° analysis data, the temperature of black bold (TBB) observed by FY2E satellite, the evolution of the heavy rainstorm process in Hubei Province during 5-6 July 2013 is analyzed. Using the highresolution output from WRF model, the evolution of the mesoβ scale systems is diagnosed. The results show that the severe convection took place in the overlay zone of positive vorticity in front of trough at 500 hPa, the shear line of low layer near jet flow nucleus, the upper divergence and the instability energy. There were three mesoβ scale systems in the largescale favorable weather situations, and the heavy rainfall groups were associated with the development of the convective systems. Considering the coalescence growth of droplets of the saturated water vapor, cloud water and cloud ice, the WRF model diagnosis is discussed through the precipitation rate of flux divergences. We have found four mesoγ scale systems in rainbands from the evening of 5 July to the morning of 6 July 2013, and the physical quantity value could quantitatively estimate the hourly rainfall intensity to some extent. Maximum probable convective precipitation rate could be a better physical quantity value to reflect the relations of the vapor condition in mesoscale rain cluster, thermodynamic condition and rainfall. Thus, it could be applied to the Doppler weather radar nowcasting.
2017, 43(3):278-285.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.003
Abstract:
The atmospheric circulation for the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in midsumer 2015 and the possible impact of the 2015/2016 El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event are analyzed by using NCEP reanalysis data and ERSST data. The results show that the 2015 midsummer mean temperature was lower than normal, which ranks the second lowest since 1961. The direct cause of the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the abnormal consistent Eurasian atmospheric circulation in midsummer of 2015. In the Asian Region, the dipole pattern of the blocking over north Asia and the low trough over East Asia led to the cold air affecting the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. El Ni〖AKn~D〗o developed rapidly in the summer of 2015, which might be the possible main reason for the Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies in the midsummer of 2015.
The atmospheric circulation for the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in midsumer 2015 and the possible impact of the 2015/2016 El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event are analyzed by using NCEP reanalysis data and ERSST data. The results show that the 2015 midsummer mean temperature was lower than normal, which ranks the second lowest since 1961. The direct cause of the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the abnormal consistent Eurasian atmospheric circulation in midsummer of 2015. In the Asian Region, the dipole pattern of the blocking over north Asia and the low trough over East Asia led to the cold air affecting the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. El Ni〖AKn~D〗o developed rapidly in the summer of 2015, which might be the possible main reason for the Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies in the midsummer of 2015.
2017, 43(3):286-293.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.004
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological data at 84 sounding and surface stations in China during summer half year from 1970 to 2012, the interannual variation of 0℃ isotherm height (H0) is analyzed. The result indicates that the mean H0 is between 2800 m and 5200 m in China during summer half year of the last 43 years, and the south H0 is higher than the north H0, mainly controlled by latitude and altitude. The annual mean H0 increases by 2.23 m·a-1, which has passed the 0.01 level of significance test. The change trend (p<0.05) on a monthly basis is reported for 1.82, 2.03 and 5.38 m·a-1 in June, July and September, respectively, and all have passed the 0.05 level significance test. During 1970-2012, the H0 at most sounding stations in China shows an increasing trend in summer half year. The increasing trend at northern stations is mostly over the 0.05 level, and the ascending range is generally larger than at the southern stations. The mean H0 is positively correlated to mean air temperature in summer half year with correlation coefficients between 0.07 and 0.89. The correlation coefficients for the north are higher than that for the south.
Based on the meteorological data at 84 sounding and surface stations in China during summer half year from 1970 to 2012, the interannual variation of 0℃ isotherm height (H0) is analyzed. The result indicates that the mean H0 is between 2800 m and 5200 m in China during summer half year of the last 43 years, and the south H0 is higher than the north H0, mainly controlled by latitude and altitude. The annual mean H0 increases by 2.23 m·a-1, which has passed the 0.01 level of significance test. The change trend (p<0.05) on a monthly basis is reported for 1.82, 2.03 and 5.38 m·a-1 in June, July and September, respectively, and all have passed the 0.05 level significance test. During 1970-2012, the H0 at most sounding stations in China shows an increasing trend in summer half year. The increasing trend at northern stations is mostly over the 0.05 level, and the ascending range is generally larger than at the southern stations. The mean H0 is positively correlated to mean air temperature in summer half year with correlation coefficients between 0.07 and 0.89. The correlation coefficients for the north are higher than that for the south.
5 Statistical Correction of ENSO Prediction in BCC_CSM1.1m Based on Stepwise Pattern Projection Method
2017, 43(3):294-304.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.005
Abstract:
Using the sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast datasets produced by the climate system model of Beijing Climate Center (BCC_CSM1.1m) from 1991 to 2014, the Stepwise Pattern Projection Method (SPPM) is employed to statistically correct El Ni〖AKn~D〗oSouth Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. The main idea of the SPPM is to produce a prediction at the predictand grid by projecting the predictor field onto its covariance pattern with the onepoint predictand after selecting the predictor domain. The SPPM significantly improves the performance of the prediction over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean. The temporal correlation score has increased 8%-10% in terms of Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4 SST anomaly index with a 6month lead in the cross validation. The spatial anomaly correlation coefficients for El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event predictions also increase obviously by the SPPM at most lead months, particularly in autumn. Besides, the prediction for the location of warming center also can be improved, compared with that of the original BCC_CSM1.1m.
Using the sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast datasets produced by the climate system model of Beijing Climate Center (BCC_CSM1.1m) from 1991 to 2014, the Stepwise Pattern Projection Method (SPPM) is employed to statistically correct El Ni〖AKn~D〗oSouth Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. The main idea of the SPPM is to produce a prediction at the predictand grid by projecting the predictor field onto its covariance pattern with the onepoint predictand after selecting the predictor domain. The SPPM significantly improves the performance of the prediction over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean. The temporal correlation score has increased 8%-10% in terms of Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4 SST anomaly index with a 6month lead in the cross validation. The spatial anomaly correlation coefficients for El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event predictions also increase obviously by the SPPM at most lead months, particularly in autumn. Besides, the prediction for the location of warming center also can be improved, compared with that of the original BCC_CSM1.1m.
2017, 43(3):305-314.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.006
Abstract:
Based on the hourly precipitation data of 32 meteorological observational stations in Guangdong during 1961-2014, the climatic characteristics and variation of hourly heavy precipitation in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong were studied by using statistical diagnostic methods, such as linear regression analysis, MannKendall test, power spectrum analysis and the computation of trend coefficients. The results showed that the mean hourly heavy precipitation hours, intensity, precipitation and contribution in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong has a decreasing trend from coastal regions to inland. The change of annual torrential rain days and precipitation is not obvious in the same time. There are obvious differences among the annual hourly heavy precipitation hours and torrential rain days or precipitation. The hourly heavy precipitation hours at most stations in Guangdong has increased obviously, especially in Pearl River Delta. The changes of hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual or the preflood season in Guangdong have 3.7 and 22 year periods, and 3 year period in the latter flood season. The hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual and the latter flood season in Guangdong has an abrupt change in 1993-1994, but which is in the preflood has not an abrupt change.
Based on the hourly precipitation data of 32 meteorological observational stations in Guangdong during 1961-2014, the climatic characteristics and variation of hourly heavy precipitation in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong were studied by using statistical diagnostic methods, such as linear regression analysis, MannKendall test, power spectrum analysis and the computation of trend coefficients. The results showed that the mean hourly heavy precipitation hours, intensity, precipitation and contribution in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong has a decreasing trend from coastal regions to inland. The change of annual torrential rain days and precipitation is not obvious in the same time. There are obvious differences among the annual hourly heavy precipitation hours and torrential rain days or precipitation. The hourly heavy precipitation hours at most stations in Guangdong has increased obviously, especially in Pearl River Delta. The changes of hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual or the preflood season in Guangdong have 3.7 and 22 year periods, and 3 year period in the latter flood season. The hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual and the latter flood season in Guangdong has an abrupt change in 1993-1994, but which is in the preflood has not an abrupt change.
2017, 43(3):315-322.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.007
Abstract:
Based on high resolution (0.5°×0.5°) daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010, the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer rainfall over the eastern, western and whole YunnanGuizhou Plateau (hereafter YGP) were investigated. Besides, using the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis data (ERAInterim hereafter) from 1979 to 2010, we examined the average water vapor flux over the YGP in summer. The results show that the distribution of climatological annual precipitation in YGP is uneven. A dry center is located in the middle of the western YGP and it increases gradually southward and westward. Meanwhile, precipitation over the eastern YGP decreases from southeast to northwest. The YGP is divided into eastern YGP (EYGP) and western YGP (WYGP). The precipitation over the two parts increases with higher increase rate of rainfall. In terms of water vapor transport, it mainly transports from southern and western boundaries to northern and eastern boundaries of the YGP. The whole YGP acts as a water vapor source annually. The net water vapor is positive in EYGP but negative in WYGP. The precipitation, however, increases over both regions. The water vapor over the WYGP is mainly from the northern part of the Bay of Bengal, the northern South China Sea and the area from the Hengduan Mountains to Sichuan Basin. As for the EYGP, the moisture is mainly from the northern South China Sea and western Sichuan Basin.
Based on high resolution (0.5°×0.5°) daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010, the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer rainfall over the eastern, western and whole YunnanGuizhou Plateau (hereafter YGP) were investigated. Besides, using the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis data (ERAInterim hereafter) from 1979 to 2010, we examined the average water vapor flux over the YGP in summer. The results show that the distribution of climatological annual precipitation in YGP is uneven. A dry center is located in the middle of the western YGP and it increases gradually southward and westward. Meanwhile, precipitation over the eastern YGP decreases from southeast to northwest. The YGP is divided into eastern YGP (EYGP) and western YGP (WYGP). The precipitation over the two parts increases with higher increase rate of rainfall. In terms of water vapor transport, it mainly transports from southern and western boundaries to northern and eastern boundaries of the YGP. The whole YGP acts as a water vapor source annually. The net water vapor is positive in EYGP but negative in WYGP. The precipitation, however, increases over both regions. The water vapor over the WYGP is mainly from the northern part of the Bay of Bengal, the northern South China Sea and the area from the Hengduan Mountains to Sichuan Basin. As for the EYGP, the moisture is mainly from the northern South China Sea and western Sichuan Basin.
2017, 43(3):323-332.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.008
Abstract:
The latest ERAInterim radiosonde and surface data with high spatiotemporal resolution are used to analyze the change characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the atmospheric transport and selfpurification capability in Zhejiang Province. Combining with air quality data from Environmental Protection Agency, the relationship between air quality and atmospheric selfpurification capability in Zhejiang is explored. The results show that atmospheric selfpurification capability is smaller in coastal areas and larger in inland during spring and summer, but increases in coastal areas and decreases in inland when it comes to autumn and winter. The average atmospheric selfpurification capability is in the increasing trend during the study period. The 10 m wind speed which represents the underlying transmission is the biggest in autumn and winter, but is the smallest in summer, slightly decreasing with time. This is one of the possible causes of the aggravated air pollution in Zhejiang. The distribution of 10 m wind speed gradually reduces from east coastal areas to western mountains in general, being slightly larger in autumn and winter, northerly winds mainly. The atmospheric selfpurification capability is the poorest in winter over most parts of Zhejiang, and the prevailing northerly winds tend to bring the north pollutants down, so winter is the time period when air pollution is prone to occur in Zhejiang. When the wind speed is small, and the direction turns into northwest, the pollutants are brought in Zhejiang from the north, getting accumulated, then more serious pollution weather is most likely to appear. The air pollution above medium grade occurs mainly in the developed areas like Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Jinhua. Comparatively, air pollution rarely happens in coastal areas, such as Zhoushan, Wenzhou, Taizhou, due to the good atmospheric transport conditions. The air pollution occurs less frequently in Lishui and Quzhou as the result of high terrain and slow development in industry and economy.
The latest ERAInterim radiosonde and surface data with high spatiotemporal resolution are used to analyze the change characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the atmospheric transport and selfpurification capability in Zhejiang Province. Combining with air quality data from Environmental Protection Agency, the relationship between air quality and atmospheric selfpurification capability in Zhejiang is explored. The results show that atmospheric selfpurification capability is smaller in coastal areas and larger in inland during spring and summer, but increases in coastal areas and decreases in inland when it comes to autumn and winter. The average atmospheric selfpurification capability is in the increasing trend during the study period. The 10 m wind speed which represents the underlying transmission is the biggest in autumn and winter, but is the smallest in summer, slightly decreasing with time. This is one of the possible causes of the aggravated air pollution in Zhejiang. The distribution of 10 m wind speed gradually reduces from east coastal areas to western mountains in general, being slightly larger in autumn and winter, northerly winds mainly. The atmospheric selfpurification capability is the poorest in winter over most parts of Zhejiang, and the prevailing northerly winds tend to bring the north pollutants down, so winter is the time period when air pollution is prone to occur in Zhejiang. When the wind speed is small, and the direction turns into northwest, the pollutants are brought in Zhejiang from the north, getting accumulated, then more serious pollution weather is most likely to appear. The air pollution above medium grade occurs mainly in the developed areas like Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Jinhua. Comparatively, air pollution rarely happens in coastal areas, such as Zhoushan, Wenzhou, Taizhou, due to the good atmospheric transport conditions. The air pollution occurs less frequently in Lishui and Quzhou as the result of high terrain and slow development in industry and economy.
2017, 43(3):333-340.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.009
Abstract:
Based on the homogenized surface relative humidity data of more than 2400 national meteorological station of China, and by using TPS (thin plate spline), the 1951-2014 regional ground homogenized relative humidity site data were spatially interpolated, obtaining the Chinese ground homogenized 0.5°×0.5° relative humidity dataset. The quality evaluation results of the dataset show that the interpolation error in winter is relatively higher than that in summer. There are no significant spatial regional characteristics in the interpolation errors of the analysis and observation values in winter, spring, summer and autumn. The corresponding average deviation is 0.002%, 0.013%, 0.008% and 0.007% per month, and the average relative error is 0.431%, 0.439%, 0.286% and 0.382% per month, respectively. The correlation coefficient between the analysis value and the observation value is 0.89. After the interpolation, the gridded relative humidity data can describe the major spatial features of “southeast wet and northwest dry” for the annual average relative humidities of China more accurately and intensively. In addition, it can also reveal the varying features of relative humidity in the regions of the south to Yanytze River the south to Yellow River and north to the Yangtze River, the Northwest China, the northern and southern Tianshan Mountains, Tarim Basin terrain, etc. As there are not enough stations on the QinghaiTibet Plateau, it is difficult to give a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the relative humidity of the air in this region. The longtime series of climate change trend analysis, based on the CR dataset shows that the national average relative humidity in the late 60 years is in a decreasing trend.
Based on the homogenized surface relative humidity data of more than 2400 national meteorological station of China, and by using TPS (thin plate spline), the 1951-2014 regional ground homogenized relative humidity site data were spatially interpolated, obtaining the Chinese ground homogenized 0.5°×0.5° relative humidity dataset. The quality evaluation results of the dataset show that the interpolation error in winter is relatively higher than that in summer. There are no significant spatial regional characteristics in the interpolation errors of the analysis and observation values in winter, spring, summer and autumn. The corresponding average deviation is 0.002%, 0.013%, 0.008% and 0.007% per month, and the average relative error is 0.431%, 0.439%, 0.286% and 0.382% per month, respectively. The correlation coefficient between the analysis value and the observation value is 0.89. After the interpolation, the gridded relative humidity data can describe the major spatial features of “southeast wet and northwest dry” for the annual average relative humidities of China more accurately and intensively. In addition, it can also reveal the varying features of relative humidity in the regions of the south to Yanytze River the south to Yellow River and north to the Yangtze River, the Northwest China, the northern and southern Tianshan Mountains, Tarim Basin terrain, etc. As there are not enough stations on the QinghaiTibet Plateau, it is difficult to give a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the relative humidity of the air in this region. The longtime series of climate change trend analysis, based on the CR dataset shows that the national average relative humidity in the late 60 years is in a decreasing trend.
2017, 43(3):341-347.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.010
Abstract:
Beginning with the mechanism of rainstorm floods, and taking the Dongjin River Basin as a case, this paper carries out the study on the rainstorm flood risk regionalization of medium and small river basins. Using the meteorological data, hydrological data, geographic information data, social and economic statistical data, historic disaster data as well as the hydrological model of TOPMODEL and statistical method, we determine the flood critical area rainfall and also reconstruct the data sequence of regional meteorological stations by the method of stepwise regression. Then by using the generalized extreme value distribution function, we work out the floodcausing area rainfall in different return periods. According to the distribution of hourly precipitation rainfallpattern in the river basin, we use the FloodArea model to simulate the flood with the data of the floodcausing area rainfall in different return periods, the DEM added with the dykedam information, and the coefficient of manning etc., obtaining the flood inundation maps for different return periods. Finally the risk regionalization atlas for different return periods are drawn based on the data of population, GDP and landuse in the river basin. The technique established in this paper for rainstorm flood risk regionalization of medium and small river basins is convenient and feasible, and the results of risk regionalization are of high precision and strong practicability. Therefore, it is meaningful for dynamic disaster risk management which faces the realtime disaster prevention and mitigation.
Beginning with the mechanism of rainstorm floods, and taking the Dongjin River Basin as a case, this paper carries out the study on the rainstorm flood risk regionalization of medium and small river basins. Using the meteorological data, hydrological data, geographic information data, social and economic statistical data, historic disaster data as well as the hydrological model of TOPMODEL and statistical method, we determine the flood critical area rainfall and also reconstruct the data sequence of regional meteorological stations by the method of stepwise regression. Then by using the generalized extreme value distribution function, we work out the floodcausing area rainfall in different return periods. According to the distribution of hourly precipitation rainfallpattern in the river basin, we use the FloodArea model to simulate the flood with the data of the floodcausing area rainfall in different return periods, the DEM added with the dykedam information, and the coefficient of manning etc., obtaining the flood inundation maps for different return periods. Finally the risk regionalization atlas for different return periods are drawn based on the data of population, GDP and landuse in the river basin. The technique established in this paper for rainstorm flood risk regionalization of medium and small river basins is convenient and feasible, and the results of risk regionalization are of high precision and strong practicability. Therefore, it is meaningful for dynamic disaster risk management which faces the realtime disaster prevention and mitigation.
2017, 43(3):348-353.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.011
Abstract:
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core observatory was launched in February 2014, carrying the dualfrequency precipitation radar (DPR). The DPR consists of two radars with microwave frequencies of Ka and Ku bands. DPR is expected to extend its ability to capture weak rain and snow in higher latitudes. In order to evaluate the ability of DPR in snow detection, four cases are analyzed. As a result, particle phase products of DPR are consistence with the actual weather condition and the temperature of solid snow is lower than -0.5℃. What’s more, the heights of most storm tops are lower than 6 km. By comparison, actual Kuband radar detectability turns out to outperform the Ka band radar in identifying the existence of snow because of an obvious improvement of sensitivity. KaMS and KaHS are also useful. In order to improve snow retrieval, the attenuation correction of snow is very important, especially for wet snow.
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core observatory was launched in February 2014, carrying the dualfrequency precipitation radar (DPR). The DPR consists of two radars with microwave frequencies of Ka and Ku bands. DPR is expected to extend its ability to capture weak rain and snow in higher latitudes. In order to evaluate the ability of DPR in snow detection, four cases are analyzed. As a result, particle phase products of DPR are consistence with the actual weather condition and the temperature of solid snow is lower than -0.5℃. What’s more, the heights of most storm tops are lower than 6 km. By comparison, actual Kuband radar detectability turns out to outperform the Ka band radar in identifying the existence of snow because of an obvious improvement of sensitivity. KaMS and KaHS are also useful. In order to improve snow retrieval, the attenuation correction of snow is very important, especially for wet snow.
2017, 43(3):354-364.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.012
Abstract:
Intelligent analysis system of a case base for disastrous weather includes three parts: basic data support subsystem (data layer), meteorological data application middleware subsystem (service layer) and integrated analysis service of case base subsystem (application layer). It can achieve the interactive input of meteorological disaster weather, query and retrieval of keywords, intelligent analysis of related meteorological data and other functions by comprehensively using various technologies in HTML5 Canvas, database, GIS, efficient visual rendering, etc. This paper mainly discusses the key technologies in the system architecture, design of case library and functional features, and instructs in detail the design and implementation of the functions such as data entry and query, WebGIS components, visual rendering, and reanalysis of meteorological data. The result operation application shows that the Web page responds quickly and has a good performance in compatible with browser and good humancomputer interaction experience. It can meet the needs of high efficiency, intelligence and flexibility, playing an important role in the establishment of the correct forecast ideas and the ability to improve in the analysis of the weather process.
Intelligent analysis system of a case base for disastrous weather includes three parts: basic data support subsystem (data layer), meteorological data application middleware subsystem (service layer) and integrated analysis service of case base subsystem (application layer). It can achieve the interactive input of meteorological disaster weather, query and retrieval of keywords, intelligent analysis of related meteorological data and other functions by comprehensively using various technologies in HTML5 Canvas, database, GIS, efficient visual rendering, etc. This paper mainly discusses the key technologies in the system architecture, design of case library and functional features, and instructs in detail the design and implementation of the functions such as data entry and query, WebGIS components, visual rendering, and reanalysis of meteorological data. The result operation application shows that the Web page responds quickly and has a good performance in compatible with browser and good humancomputer interaction experience. It can meet the needs of high efficiency, intelligence and flexibility, playing an important role in the establishment of the correct forecast ideas and the ability to improve in the analysis of the weather process.
2017, 43(3):365-372.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.013
Abstract:
Atmospheric observing system operations and monitoring (ASOM) is a realtime monitoring system of observation equipment’s running status and observation data. In this article, four operating indexes including availability of operation (Ao), mean time between failures (MTBF), failure duration (Tfd), number of failures (Nf) are evaluated on the basis of maintenance data of ASOM from 1 December 2009 to 30 November 2014. For the 2014 indexes, Ao and MTBF increase to 99.06% and 1465.08 h respectively while Tfd and Nf reduce to 13.15 h and 4.68 times. In addition, the failure distribution and replacement of radar spare parts in these fault cases and their trends are quantified and evaluated for different radar subsystems and different types of radar. The results, to some extent, make efforts to set up pertinent spare parts supply management, improve maintenance support capability of CINRAD, and, eventually, promote efficiency of China’s meteorological observation equipment management.
Atmospheric observing system operations and monitoring (ASOM) is a realtime monitoring system of observation equipment’s running status and observation data. In this article, four operating indexes including availability of operation (Ao), mean time between failures (MTBF), failure duration (Tfd), number of failures (Nf) are evaluated on the basis of maintenance data of ASOM from 1 December 2009 to 30 November 2014. For the 2014 indexes, Ao and MTBF increase to 99.06% and 1465.08 h respectively while Tfd and Nf reduce to 13.15 h and 4.68 times. In addition, the failure distribution and replacement of radar spare parts in these fault cases and their trends are quantified and evaluated for different radar subsystems and different types of radar. The results, to some extent, make efforts to set up pertinent spare parts supply management, improve maintenance support capability of CINRAD, and, eventually, promote efficiency of China’s meteorological observation equipment management.
2017, 43(3):373-377.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.014
Abstract:
Spring waterlogging disaster seriously affect the growth and yields of winter wheat in South China. In this paper, a waterlogging index model of winter wheat is constructed by using the Logistic curve equation based on downscaling amended cloudmoist coefficient. According to the critical index value, the sustained days of rainy weather and the potential yield reduction rate of winter wheat, spring waterlogging disasters are divided into three levels. Then, the model is retrieved by using daily meteorological data from 59 stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2010. The results show that the waterlogging index are negatively correlated to the relative meteorological yields of wheat. With the increase of waterlogging index, the yields decrease. In wet years the disaster of waterlogging would occur one to three times (87.1%), and the least was 5 times (1.9%). Finally, the waterlogging index model is applied to the 2014 spring waterlogging disaster, achieving good result.
Spring waterlogging disaster seriously affect the growth and yields of winter wheat in South China. In this paper, a waterlogging index model of winter wheat is constructed by using the Logistic curve equation based on downscaling amended cloudmoist coefficient. According to the critical index value, the sustained days of rainy weather and the potential yield reduction rate of winter wheat, spring waterlogging disasters are divided into three levels. Then, the model is retrieved by using daily meteorological data from 59 stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2010. The results show that the waterlogging index are negatively correlated to the relative meteorological yields of wheat. With the increase of waterlogging index, the yields decrease. In wet years the disaster of waterlogging would occur one to three times (87.1%), and the least was 5 times (1.9%). Finally, the waterlogging index model is applied to the 2014 spring waterlogging disaster, achieving good result.
2017, 43(3):378-384.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.03.015
Abstract:
The main characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation in December 2016 are as follows： There were two polar vortex centers in the Northern Hemisphere with weaker pressure in the center than normal year. The circulation presented the troughridgetrough pattern in the middlehigh latitudes of Eurasia. The south branch acted weakly, located near 90°E essentially. The subtropical high was stronger than normal years. The monthly mean precipitation was 11.5 mm, 9.5% more than normal. Besides, the monthly mean temperature was -0.7℃, 2.5℃ higher than normal （-3.2℃）， which is the maximum value for the corresponding periods since 1961. During this month, two cold air processes, two major rainfall processes and three largescale foghaze weather processes occurred, of which the foghaze event from 16 to 21 December was recorded as the most extensive, the longest lasting and the most severe foghaze weather process in 2016.
The main characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation in December 2016 are as follows： There were two polar vortex centers in the Northern Hemisphere with weaker pressure in the center than normal year. The circulation presented the troughridgetrough pattern in the middlehigh latitudes of Eurasia. The south branch acted weakly, located near 90°E essentially. The subtropical high was stronger than normal years. The monthly mean precipitation was 11.5 mm, 9.5% more than normal. Besides, the monthly mean temperature was -0.7℃, 2.5℃ higher than normal （-3.2℃）， which is the maximum value for the corresponding periods since 1961. During this month, two cold air processes, two major rainfall processes and three largescale foghaze weather processes occurred, of which the foghaze event from 16 to 21 December was recorded as the most extensive, the longest lasting and the most severe foghaze weather process in 2016.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P