ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 38,Issue 4,2012 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Numerical Experiment on the Impact of the Urbanizing on Regional Climate and Water Resources in HuangheHuaiheHaihe Zone
    CHEN Huailiang XU Xiangde LI Fei WANG Lanning DU Zixuan
    2012, 38(4):385-391. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.001
    [Abstract](855) [HTML](77) [PDF 8.27 M](1116)
    Numerical experiment has been carried out over HHH (HuangheHuaiheHaihe) zone by using regional climate model RegCM3 for 5 years (2001-2005). The simulation has two tests, a control test and a sensitivity test on urbanizing conditions. The output results of the regional climate model are precipitation, evaporation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, runoff, and the total water vapor content. The difference value between sensitivity test and control test responds to the influence of vegetation variation on regional climate and water resources in HHH zone. The results showed that the urbanization could weaken the local wind field, decrease rainfall and water resources and make the temperature increase. The variations resulting in the autumn drought happen easily, the floods became more severity because of the increasing of runoff in summer. The urbanization caused the decreasing of soil moisture holding capacity, and stimulated the vegetation degradation greatly. Accordingly, the climate abnormity and the shortening of water resources in HHH zone transformed tempestuously, and led to the ecological environment deteriorating.
    2  Analyses of Seasonal Variation Characteristics of the Rainfall Duration over China
    YU Wenyong LI Jian YU Rucong
    2012, 38(4):392-401. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.002
    [Abstract](1601) [HTML](231) [PDF 1.92 M](1426)
    Using 12hourly station raingauge data at 588 stations during 1969-2008, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics and seasonal variation of rainfall durations over China. The result shows that in south of 35°N, the annual mean averaged rainfall duration over eastern and western regions is longer than that over the middle region, while over north of 35°N, northwestern China and the west of Inner Mongol, the averaged rainfall duration is the shortest all over China, and the rainfall duration over the north of northeastern China is longer. According to the duration time, precipitation events are classified. Over the three regions of eastern China (southeastern China, the region of Jianghuai and Huanghuai, and the region of northeastern China and the north of North China), the percentages of the shortduration rainfall (1 time duration for 12 h) to the total rainfall gradually increase during the whole year for both amount and frequency, while those of longduration rainfall (no less than 3 times duration) decrease. The seasonal variation of averaged rainfall duration in China reasonably reflects the spring persistent rain over southeastern China, the Meiyu, the summer rainy season over northeastern China and the north of North China, the autumn rain over Guanzhong Basin and Hanshui River Valley and the summer rain over the Tibetan Plateau and southwestern China. The averaged rainfall duration is long in autumn and winter over southeastern China, in the first dekad of October over Jianghuai and Huanghuai region and in the last dekad of October over southwestern China, which is not in accordance with the variation of rainfall. These features can be attributed to the increasing frequency of the longduration rainfall and decreasing frequency of the shortduration rainfall. Subseasonal variation of averaged rainfall duration over the three regions of eastern China corresponds to the ‘northward advance and the southward retreat’ of the monsoon rain belt.
    3  Analysis of Potential Predictability for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature in Yunnan
    YE Kunhui XIAO Ziniu LIU Bo
    2012, 38(4):402-410. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.003
    [Abstract](1195) [HTML](126) [PDF 3.98 M](1255)
    With 42year climate data in Yunnan, a lowfrequency white noise extension method and a variance analysis method are used to estimate climate noise variance and potential predictabilities of the seasonal rainfall and temperature in Yunnan Province. The results show that, (1) the climate noise variance of seasonal precipitation in Yunnan increases when the seasonal precipitation increases and is mainly decreasing from south to north in terms of spatial distribution, the climate noise variance of summer rainfall is significantly greater than that in other seasons. However, climate noise variance of seasonal temperature, increases with the decreasing seasonal temperature and is mainly decreasing from east to west for spring and winter in terms of spatial distribution. While increasing from south to north for summer and autumn, the climate noise variance of winter temperature is significantly greater than that in other seasons. (2) Both potential predictabilities of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan also have the pronounced changes in season and space, the potential predictabilities of precipitation and temperature in spring are significantly higher than those in other seasons while in summer are significantly smaller than those in other seasons. In spring and autumn, the potential predictability of precipitation over the western is higher than that in the eastern, but in the southern is higher than that in northern in winter. As for seasonal temperature, except in summer, western is higher than eastern. (3) Both monsoon and the cold air may play an important role in affecting the potential predictability of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province.
    4  The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Winter Snowfall in Northeast China and Its Relation with Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
    LI Duo XIAO Ziniu LI Zechun
    2012, 38(4):411-418. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.004
    [Abstract](963) [HTML](107) [PDF 3.22 M](1167)
    Based on the observational data in the period 1961-2008 from China weather stations and the 1°×1 ° global sea surface temperature (SST) data, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter snowfall in Northeast China and the correlation with global SST are explored by using principal component analysis, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. The study found that: the high frequency oscillation periods (2-3 a and 7-8 a) and a quasidecadal scale (16 a) of the lowfrequency oscillation were always existing during the past 48 years. Winter snowfall revealed an increasing trend in the past 48 years as a whole in Northeast region. However, the winter snowfall in the area north of 45°N increased significantly, while it did not change significantly in the area south of 45°N. Analysis has shown that a significantly positive correlation exists between SST in the North Atlantic 30°-50°N, 10°-40°W and the 1st/2nd time coefficient, and also between the winter snowfall in the northern part of the study area and SST, but the correlation between winter snowfall in the south region and the global SST is not obvious. The warming of SST may lead to a significant increase in snowfall in the northern part of the study area.
    5  Climatic Characteristics of Precipitation in Various Regions of China for the Past 60 Years
    LI Cong XIAO Ziniu ZHANG Xiaoling
    2012, 38(4):419-424. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.005
    [Abstract](2215) [HTML](195) [PDF 997.91 K](1790)
    By using the precipitation data at 503 stations across China during 1951-2009, the evolution characteristics of drought in China are analyzed on the basis of spatial and temporal precipitation distributions at each season and area. The results indicate that the precipitation in China during each season showed not only a stable interannual change but also an interdecadal variability. The precipitation in autumn has a unified decreasing trend since the 1950s, suggesting that droughts become much frequent in this season. The North China easily has droughts in summer, while autumn droughts prefer the South China since the year 2000. The extremely severe drought in the Southwest China after the year 2000 might have a close relationship with the earlier withdraw date of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) monsoon.
    6  The RealTime MJO Monitoring and Prediction Operation in NCC
    JIA Xiaolong YUAN Yuan REN Fumin ZHANG Qin
    2012, 38(4):425-431. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.006
    [Abstract](1049) [HTML](1409) [PDF 1.15 M](1409)
    Based on a popular MJO monitoring method designed by Wheeler and Hendon, a realtime MJO monitoring index and associated computing method were designed, and then, an MJO monitoring and prediction operation system was built up in National Climate Center (NCC). The monitoring results from NCC are much consistent with that from the foreign operational departments (e.g. Australia Bureau of Meteorology). Monitoring results can give a relative good description of the MJO’s intensity and propagation. The realtime MJO prediction operation is also set up using two statistical forecast models. Analysis on the prediction skill showed that two statistical methods give a skillful forecast within 15 days. Lag linear regression model (PCL) has better forecast skill than autoregressive model (ARM).
    7  Antarctic Oscillation’s Significance for Prediction of Rainfall in May and June in Fujian
    HE Fen LAI Shaojun GAO Jianyun WU Weijie BAO Ruijuan
    2012, 38(4):432-437. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.007
    [Abstract](868) [HTML](81) [PDF 965.25 K](1165)
    Using the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the rainfall data from 66 stations in Fujian from 1979 to 2009, this paper analyzes the influences of the variation of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in March and April on the rainfall before the flood season (May and June) in Fujian. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the March and April average AAO index and the rainfall before the flood season in Fujian. The stronger AAO index is correlated with more rainfall in May and June, and vice versa. And the positive AAO index anomaly is associated with the positive rainfall anomaly, and vice versa. Furthermore, the analysis of the AAO anomaly found that the significant strong AAO will be corresponding to more active cold air in the Northern China and the stronger wet and warm air in the Southern China. Therefore, the strong frontogenesis will occur in the northern South China, which may result in more rainfall in May and June, and vice versa. These findings may provide a new way to predict the rainfall that occurs before the flood season in Fujian.
    8  Mesoscale Analysis of the 2-4 July 2009 Heavy Rainfall in Guangxi
    QI Liyan NONG Mengsong WANG Ji
    2012, 38(4):438-447. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.008
    [Abstract](1252) [HTML](110) [PDF 7.17 M](1332)
    Using the NCEP 1°×1° grid data, Doppler radar data, and products from the SWAN system, this paper analyzes the largescale heavy precipitation process in Guangxi at 20:00 BT 2 to 20:00 BT 4 July 2009 with a comprehensive diagnostic method. The results show that: The cold air is very weak so as to penetrate into Guangxi, then the southwestern warm low can maintain for a long time, this is one of the main causes for the precipitation lasting for long time. Meanwhile, the surface convergence line is stable, which is the trigger mechanism of strong convection development in northern Guangxi, and is also the main factor for the generation of ‘train effect’. Base reflectivity of Liuzhou Doppler radar showed that the “train effect” made heavy rainfalls occurring in areas east of Hechi and north of Liuzhou during 20:00 BT 2 July to 08:00 BT 3 July 2009, and storm center is reflected as strong convergence in the radial velocity. Besides, the SWAN products were tested and analyzed, the Cotrec winds have a good indication to the echo moving; TITAN techniques have some forecasting capability to the movement and intensity of strong echo; and the onehour rainfall forecast is generally similar to the live rainfall.
    9  Analysis of Climate Anomaly and Causation in Summer 2011
    WANG Zungya REN Fumin SUN Leng LIU Yanju WANG Pengling TANG Jinyue WANG Dongqian LI Duo
    2012, 38(4):448-455. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.009
    [Abstract](1025) [HTML](141) [PDF 3.09 M](1287)
    Climate characters were analyzed over China in summer 2011. It was found that, the mean temperature was higher than and the precipitation was less than normal in China. High temperature extremes were observed in extensive regions including western Northwest China, southern North China, the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, areas to the south of the Yangtze River, eastern Southwest China, and so on during some periods. Severe persistent droughts occurred in the eastern part of Southwest China, but significantly more rainfalls than normal occurred in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. Possible causes for droughts in eastern Southwest China and more precipitation in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River were discussed further. Results showed that continuous anomalous high pressure over Southwest China, weak water vapor transports from the Bay of Bengal and the further east location of the western Pacific subtropical high directly caused the Southwest China drought. And the central type La Nina event developing from autumn 2011 may be an important external forcing impacting the drought in Southwest China. The negative phase of AO maintained during summer 2011, and then the polar vortex was weaker than normal, which was advantageous for southward shift of cold airs to affect China. At the same time, the anomalous anticyclone circulation responding to the negative SSTA in the midlatitude West Pacific intensified the western Pacific subtropical high. And then the northward water vapor transport was stronger than normal. Cold airs met with the moist and warm water vapor and then caused abundant rainfalls in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.
    10  Analysis of Anomalies of Autumn Rain in West China in 2011 and Its Possible Mechanism
    LIU Yanju SUN Leng SUN Chenghu WANG Zunya WANG Yanjiao YUAN Yuan
    2012, 38(4):456-463. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.010
    [Abstract](1529) [HTML](85) [PDF 3.52 M](1564)
    The characteristics of anomalous precipitation in the autumn of 2011 and its possible mechanism were investigated. The results showed that autumn rain of 2011 in West China was very typical, with the following features, namely the easterly and northerly being more precipitation areas, more overcast or rainy days, prominently concentrated precipitation phases, and strong extremeness. The anomaly of autumn rain in West China was featured mainly by a response to the typical La Nina event which started in September 2011. Furthermore, the decadal variation may be one of the important causes for the anomalous autumn rain in West China.
    11  Climatic Characters over China in 2011
    LI Ying GAO Ge YE Dianxiu CHEN Yu ZOU Xukai AI Wanxiu ZHANG Peiqun WANG Pengling
    2012, 38(4):464-471. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.011
    [Abstract](1380) [HTML](341) [PDF 3.00 M](1265)
    The general outline of China climate in 2011 can be characterized by words warm and dry. The annual mean temperature was 0.5℃ higher than normal, which ranked the 15th consecutive warm year since 1997. The mean annual total precipitation over China was 556.8 mm, 9% less than normal, which ranked the least since 1951. In 2011, there had no severe largescale persistent droughts and basin flood disasters occurring in China, the losses related with low temperature and snow disasters, local strong convection weather, and tropical cyclones were less than normal. However, the regional and period meteorological hazards were abrupt and frequent in 2011. In early 2011, North China, Yellow River and Huaihe River Basin (Huanghuai) experienced the most serious autumnwinter droughts in recent 41 years. The Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River experienced the most serious winterspring droughts in recent 60 years, and abrupt transition from drought to flooding appeared in June. The Southwest China experienced the most serious summerautumn droughts in recent 60 years. The Huaxi (West China) and Huanghuai experienced the obviously regional distinct floods in autumn. The southern part of South China experienced comparatively serious rainstorm disasters in October. The heavy rainfall caused water logging and inundation in big cities such as Beijing during the summer and autumn. The persistent hot waves hit most parts of South China in summer, meanwhile the maximum temperature in multiareas broke the historical record. The Typhoon Nesat and Muifa influenced wide areas in China and brought serious losses. In a word, the year 2011 has been a normal and relatively slight year in terms of meteorological disasters with relatively more direct economic losses and the least death toll and affected areas since 1990.
    12  Anomalies of Ocean and Atmospheric Circulation in 2011 and Their Impacts on Climate in China
    WANG Pengling ZHOU Bin HAN Rongqing SUN Leng WANG Zunya SI Dong SUN Chenghu
    2012, 38(4):472-479. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.012
    [Abstract](1050) [HTML](100) [PDF 2.21 M](1323)
    Based on the realtime and historical observation data, the climatic anomaly of 2011 in China and its causes were analyzed by climate statistics and climate diagnostic methods. The result showed that global ocean sea surface temperature forcing and the atmospheric circulation abnormality features attributed to the internal atmospheric dynamic processes, may lead to the climatic anomalies and major climate events in China, with such significant anomalies of climatic features as less precipitation, higher air temperature and warmdry type in 2011. Results manifested that the eastern and central equatorial Pacific entered the La Nina conditions again in September 2011, with the La Nina event of 2010/2011 starting at July 2010 and ending in April 2011; The subtropical high over the West Pacific (SHWP) was abnormally weaker than normal and further east to its normal position before May 2011, which resulted in severe meteorological drought in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River during spring, while SHWP stronger than normal from then on, especially abnormally stronger in June, which led to more Meiyu precipitation amounts and rapid transition between drought and flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River; The SHWP was further north to its normal position in autumn, together with the phased cold air activities, those resulted in more precipitation during the season in the area of Huaxi and Huanghuai. The tropical Indian Ocean SSTA firstly experienced negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode in 2011, then turned into the basinwide warming mode in summer. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity was stronger than normal in 2010/2011 winter, while intensity of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (June-August) was near normal. The intensity of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon was weaker than normal on the whole, with the earlier onset and later ending. In accord with the decadal background, tropical cyclone generated number was less than the normal in the SCS and West Pacific in 2011.
    13  Global Significant Weather and Climate Events in 2011 and the Possible Causes
    SI Dong LI Xiucang REN Fumin XU Liangyan YUAN Yuan GONG Zhiqiang
    2012, 38(4):480-489. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.013
    [Abstract](973) [HTML](169) [PDF 8.89 M](1358)
    Year 2011 has been the tenth warmest year on record, and has likely been warmer than any previous La Nina years. Global tropical cyclone activity was below average in 2011. The La Nina event came to the end in April 2011, and a new event occurred in September 2011. In early 2011, extreme low temperature and cold waves blanketed most Asian and consecutive snow storms hit North America. Severe droughts occurred in West Europe and East China in spring. During summer, eastern Africa suffered the most severe drought since the 1980s, while rain storms and floods raided Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Central and South America. The central type La Nina event, together with the frequent typhoon activities, resulted in the flood in Southeast Asia. And the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be an important external forcing impacting the flood in Pakistan.
    14  Variations of Extreme Precipitation Days During the Main Flood Season in Southern Gansu Province and Its Possible Causes
    ZHANG Xiakun GUO Pinwen ZHANG Shuyu WANG Baojian
    2012, 38(4):490-494. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.014
    [Abstract](993) [HTML](102) [PDF 1.26 M](1342)
    By using the daily precipitation data at 24 surface synoptic stations in southern Gansu Province during 1971-2010, the upperair sounding data in Wudu and NCEP reanalysis data, the changes in the extreme precipitation during the main flood season in southern Gansu Province and their causes are diagnostically analyzed. The results showed that extreme precipitation days in southern Gansu Province during the main flood season have interannual and interdecadal differences. Its possible causes include differences in atmospheric potential instability, caused by differences in atmospheric temperature and humidity fields, differences in moisture conditions, and differences in atmospheric dynamics. In years of more heavy precipitation days in main flood season in southern Gansu, temperature and relative humidity are higher in the lower atmosphere in this area, and lower in the upper atmosphere, the instability index K is greater, meaning that the potential instability of the atmosphere is stronger. And the lower level convergence and upper level divergence are stronger, which is conducive to upward motion, leading to a stronger probability of extreme precipitation occurrence.
    15  Analysis of the January 2012 Atmospheric Circulation and Weather
    LI Yong
    2012, 38(4):495-500. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.015
    [Abstract](937) [HTML](91) [PDF 3.46 M](1303)
    The following are the main characteristics of the general circulation of atmosphere and weather over  China in January 2012. There were two polar vortex centers in the Northern Hemisphere, which were respectively located to the north in Canada and the eastnortheast in Asia. The circulation presents meridional patterns in middlehigh latitudes. The East Asia major trough is stronger than the trough in average condition, and the average south branch trough is located at 80°E nearby and stronger than the normal years. The average temperature (-7.2℃) is 1.7℃ lower than and the average precipitation(16.8 mm) is 3.9 mm more than the same period of normal years in January 2012. There were two clod air processes and four rainfall processes in the month. The extreme low temperature event occurred in Xinjiang and InnerMongolia, etc. A largescale persisting overcast and rainy (snowy) weather happened in the southern China.
    16  A New Automated Dewgauge and Experiment
    LI Xiaoxia MA Shuqing WU Kejun ZHANG Xuefen DU Bo ZHUO Wen
    2012, 38(4):501-507. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.016
    [Abstract](702) [HTML](71) [PDF 2.62 M](1041)
    A new automated dewgauge is proposed. It consists of CCD image sensor, dew collector and processor, in which dew collector comprises three set glasses installed at different height, and each glass set consists of transparent glass and ground glass. The brightness of the glass would change when condensation occurs. The images of three set glasses are transmitted to the processor to determine whether moisture condensation occurs. The humidity is measured using hygrothermograph to test the dew automated data. Research has shown that it is possible to discriminate the moisture condensation. The normalized brightness difference of the glass decreases rapidly when the relative humidity is greater than 97.9%. The measured method and the algorithm have good performance. The dew acquisition can be a hundred percent and the automatic identification rate arrives more than 85%. Thus it can be applied to meteorological observation.
    17  JMSBased City Forecast Data Transmission Framework
    XUE Feng LIU Lei
    2012, 38(4):508-512. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.017
    [Abstract](1141) [HTML](120) [PDF 692.19 K](1354)
    To improve the application of city forecast data, this paper proposes a city forecast data transmission framework based upon JMS (Java Message Service), and describes key technologies. JMS message queuing is applied in the data transfer between NWFD (National Weather Forecast Database) and LWFD (Local Weather Forecast Database), to achieve a reliable and efficient data transmission service. It is verified by application that the framework has obvious advantages in improving the performance of city forecast data transmission.

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