ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 36,Issue 9,2010 Table of Contents
2010, 36(9):1-8.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.001
Abstract:
The abrupt recurved severe typhoon Chanchu and its inner core structure evolution are documented by using FY2 TBB images, NCEP final analysis and the new generation mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that the surrounding largescale steering flow and potential vorticity tendency play important roles in Chanchu movement. The rightward deflection of Chanchu is indicated by the surrounding largescale steering flow in advance. Chanchu is likely to move toward an area of maximum wavenumber1 potential vorticity tendency. The evolution of inner core asymmetric structure is closely related to the environmental vertical wind shear. The shearinduced tilt of the vortex has a dominant influence on the maximum upward motion in the southerly quadrant of Chanchu.
The abrupt recurved severe typhoon Chanchu and its inner core structure evolution are documented by using FY2 TBB images, NCEP final analysis and the new generation mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that the surrounding largescale steering flow and potential vorticity tendency play important roles in Chanchu movement. The rightward deflection of Chanchu is indicated by the surrounding largescale steering flow in advance. Chanchu is likely to move toward an area of maximum wavenumber1 potential vorticity tendency. The evolution of inner core asymmetric structure is closely related to the environmental vertical wind shear. The shearinduced tilt of the vortex has a dominant influence on the maximum upward motion in the southerly quadrant of Chanchu.
2010, 36(9):9-13.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.002
Abstract:
A US FedEx cargo plane crashed and burst into flames as it landed at Tokyo Narita airport on March 23, 2009. The weather conditions of the crash are simulated and analyzed in this article. A new generation of WRF(Weather Research & Forecasting，designed in the United States) nonhydrostatic model 2.2 is used in simulating this process. The horizontal and vertical distributions of several critical physical elements before and after the crash are analyzed. Particularly, the horizontal distribution of potential temperature is diagnosed and analyzed. The result shows that strong surface wind is formed in the region of potential temperature advection gradients, and that the strong surface wind, the strong downdraft caused by the surface wind in the low level and the lowlevel windshear are the main meteorological causes of this accident.
A US FedEx cargo plane crashed and burst into flames as it landed at Tokyo Narita airport on March 23, 2009. The weather conditions of the crash are simulated and analyzed in this article. A new generation of WRF(Weather Research & Forecasting，designed in the United States) nonhydrostatic model 2.2 is used in simulating this process. The horizontal and vertical distributions of several critical physical elements before and after the crash are analyzed. Particularly, the horizontal distribution of potential temperature is diagnosed and analyzed. The result shows that strong surface wind is formed in the region of potential temperature advection gradients, and that the strong surface wind, the strong downdraft caused by the surface wind in the low level and the lowlevel windshear are the main meteorological causes of this accident.
2010, 36(9):14-20.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.003
Abstract:
COSMIC （Constellation Observation System for Meteorology， Ionosphere and Climate）， a spacebased GPS constellation observing system of six lowearthorbit satellites, provides approximately 2000 to 3000 profiles of atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity from 40 km to the ground each day, and greatly enhances the atmospheric observation in spatial and temporal resolution. To evaluate the accuracy, the COSMIC observations were compared with the L band radiosonde from May 20 to November 26, 2008. The comparison of the wet profiles below 10 km showed that the deviation is -0.5 ℃ for temperature, 1.4N for refractivity index, 2.0 hPa for pressure, 0.1 hPa for vapor pressure; while their root mean square errors （RMS） are 1.5 ℃, 5.9N, 4.7 hPa, 1.1 hPa, respectively. As for the dry profiles, between 10 km and 30 km, the deviations are -0.3 ℃ in temperature, 0.4N in refractivity index, 1.4 hPa in vapor pressure, while the RMSs are 1.9 ℃, 0.9N and 2.6 hPa, respectively, which implies their potential applications in numerical weather prediction owing to the high spatial and temporal resolution and high accuracy.
COSMIC （Constellation Observation System for Meteorology， Ionosphere and Climate）， a spacebased GPS constellation observing system of six lowearthorbit satellites, provides approximately 2000 to 3000 profiles of atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity from 40 km to the ground each day, and greatly enhances the atmospheric observation in spatial and temporal resolution. To evaluate the accuracy, the COSMIC observations were compared with the L band radiosonde from May 20 to November 26, 2008. The comparison of the wet profiles below 10 km showed that the deviation is -0.5 ℃ for temperature, 1.4N for refractivity index, 2.0 hPa for pressure, 0.1 hPa for vapor pressure; while their root mean square errors （RMS） are 1.5 ℃, 5.9N, 4.7 hPa, 1.1 hPa, respectively. As for the dry profiles, between 10 km and 30 km, the deviations are -0.3 ℃ in temperature, 0.4N in refractivity index, 1.4 hPa in vapor pressure, while the RMSs are 1.9 ℃, 0.9N and 2.6 hPa, respectively, which implies their potential applications in numerical weather prediction owing to the high spatial and temporal resolution and high accuracy.
2010, 36(9):21-28.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.004
Abstract:
With the conventional observational data and the functions of FY2 satellite cloud image analysis system the tropical cyclone Kammuri is studied including weather situation, cloud evolution, path changes, rainfall and winds, etc. The results showed that the routes of “Kammuri” were twice northward and once southward, all these were closely related to the swing of the subtropical high, the eastward shift of the small westerly trough in the midlatitude and the strengthening and weakening of lowlevel southwest flows; while the development and reduction of convective cloud cluster were better corresponding to the strengthening and weakening of lowlevel southwest airflows. There is a good relationship between the heavy precipitation and the center of cloud top brightness, as well as its lowest intensity, and it is also closely related to the cloud size and cloud top brightness temperature with heavy precipitation, in which the development of cloud systems is a good signal to heavy precipitation. The FY2 satellite image analysis system is a good supporting tool for the shortterm nowcasting due to its better analyzing the characters of “Kammuri”.
With the conventional observational data and the functions of FY2 satellite cloud image analysis system the tropical cyclone Kammuri is studied including weather situation, cloud evolution, path changes, rainfall and winds, etc. The results showed that the routes of “Kammuri” were twice northward and once southward, all these were closely related to the swing of the subtropical high, the eastward shift of the small westerly trough in the midlatitude and the strengthening and weakening of lowlevel southwest flows; while the development and reduction of convective cloud cluster were better corresponding to the strengthening and weakening of lowlevel southwest airflows. There is a good relationship between the heavy precipitation and the center of cloud top brightness, as well as its lowest intensity, and it is also closely related to the cloud size and cloud top brightness temperature with heavy precipitation, in which the development of cloud systems is a good signal to heavy precipitation. The FY2 satellite image analysis system is a good supporting tool for the shortterm nowcasting due to its better analyzing the characters of “Kammuri”.
2010, 36(9):29-35.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.005
Abstract:
A statistical analysis of the causes, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics for unusual tracks of tropical cyclones (TC) passed or close to Taiwan is performed, from 1949 to 2008, using tropical cyclone data and observational data, such as synoptic chart, satellite cloud picture and so on. The result reveals that the consociation of ambient fields and the Taiwan topographic forcing results in unusual tracks. In specific ambient fields, the Taiwan topographic forcing leads to changes in the structure of TC entering into this area , as well as the fields of pressure and wind around, and probably causes induced topographic trough or depression. The topographic forcing and the ambient fields play different roles in the unusual track, primary or secondary, when the TCs turn left, turn right, loop or are replaced by the induced depression, while the abnormality occurs in different regions.
A statistical analysis of the causes, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics for unusual tracks of tropical cyclones (TC) passed or close to Taiwan is performed, from 1949 to 2008, using tropical cyclone data and observational data, such as synoptic chart, satellite cloud picture and so on. The result reveals that the consociation of ambient fields and the Taiwan topographic forcing results in unusual tracks. In specific ambient fields, the Taiwan topographic forcing leads to changes in the structure of TC entering into this area , as well as the fields of pressure and wind around, and probably causes induced topographic trough or depression. The topographic forcing and the ambient fields play different roles in the unusual track, primary or secondary, when the TCs turn left, turn right, loop or are replaced by the induced depression, while the abnormality occurs in different regions.
2010, 36(9):36-41.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.006
Abstract:
Based on the NCEP data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data provided by NOAA satellite observations, the paper analyzed the abnormal characteristics of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during the storm rainfall over the Huaihe Valley and abnormal high temperature in the south of China from June to July in 2007. It is shown that the WPSH is stronger than normal and relatively stable in the northsouth movement.The shift in the eastwest direction is more obvious than in the southnorth direction. By analyzing the characteristics of vertical circulation field and wind vector on meridional plane, we find that the upward currents can be stimulated in the south and north of WPSH. The upward current in the north of WPSH stimulated the downward current in the center of WPSH at 700 hPa over the region. While the upward current in the south of WPSH plays a minor role on the downward current in the center of WPSH.The establishment of a blocking anticyclone in the midhigher latitude can intensify the WPSH. The strong and stable westerly jet in the middle latitude and the abnormal actively convection in the tropical region are conducive to the relative stability of the WPSH.
Based on the NCEP data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data provided by NOAA satellite observations, the paper analyzed the abnormal characteristics of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during the storm rainfall over the Huaihe Valley and abnormal high temperature in the south of China from June to July in 2007. It is shown that the WPSH is stronger than normal and relatively stable in the northsouth movement.The shift in the eastwest direction is more obvious than in the southnorth direction. By analyzing the characteristics of vertical circulation field and wind vector on meridional plane, we find that the upward currents can be stimulated in the south and north of WPSH. The upward current in the north of WPSH stimulated the downward current in the center of WPSH at 700 hPa over the region. While the upward current in the south of WPSH plays a minor role on the downward current in the center of WPSH.The establishment of a blocking anticyclone in the midhigher latitude can intensify the WPSH. The strong and stable westerly jet in the middle latitude and the abnormal actively convection in the tropical region are conducive to the relative stability of the WPSH.
2010, 36(9):42-46.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.007
Abstract:
Air upglide motion on the frontal surface is the important cause for the frontal precipitation. That the mechanism of air upglide motion and downglide motion on the frontal surface is understood is necessary to forecast frontal precipitation. Based on the dynamics of atmosphere, the cause for air upglide motion and downglide motion on the frontal surface was studied. The glide motion of warm air on the frontal surface is related to the difference between the wind speed of warm air in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface and the moving speed of the frontal surface. Warm air upglide occurs when the wind speed of warm air in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface is less than the moving speed of frontal surface (uwc). Because the moving speed of frontal surface is less than the wind speed of cold air in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface (c0 in the frontal zone; however,
u/x<0 in the frontal zone is the necessary condition of upglide motion of warm air. Based on the dynamics of atmosphere, this article shows the formula of the frontal slope. Deduction of this formula works out the formula for analyzing u/x. The following conclusions can be drawn. First, air is upglide motion on the frontal surface when the frontal slope increases, on the contrary, downglide. Second, air is upglide motion when frontal intensity increases, on the contrary, downglide. Third, air is upglide motion when it flows from warm to cold; air is downglide motion when it flows from cold to warm. Fourth, air is upglide motion when the cyclonic vorticity develops on the frontal surface,on the contrary,downglide. Fifth, air is upglide motion when the speed of geostrophic wind in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface is rising from lower to upper frontal surface,on the cotrary,air is downglide motion.
Air upglide motion on the frontal surface is the important cause for the frontal precipitation. That the mechanism of air upglide motion and downglide motion on the frontal surface is understood is necessary to forecast frontal precipitation. Based on the dynamics of atmosphere, the cause for air upglide motion and downglide motion on the frontal surface was studied. The glide motion of warm air on the frontal surface is related to the difference between the wind speed of warm air in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface and the moving speed of the frontal surface. Warm air upglide occurs when the wind speed of warm air in the direction perpendicular to the frontal surface is less than the moving speed of frontal surface (uw
2010, 36(9):47-54.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.008
Abstract:
Daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2006 of Chongqing area have been employed to diagnose the impact of climate changes on hightemperature,drought and flood disasters of Chongqing. Results show that significant warming of Chongqing area began at late 1990s. The abrupt temperature change occurred in 1997. During warming period, extreme high temperature event increased obviously, the risk of heat wave rose significantly, meanwhile extreme precipitation event also increased obviously, the risk of flood rose significantly. Furthermore, the trends of each grade regional average precipitation days have been analyzed, the precipitation days of light and moderate rain decrease obviously, which may lead to the risk of drought to increase significantly. Put regional temperature anomalies into two parts, one is the impact of global climate changes on it, the other is regional selfvariability. It was found that the contribution of global climate changes to regional temperature variations increased significantly during warming period. Then we calculated the contributions of global climate changes and regional selfvariability in 2006, respectively, results suggest that global climate changes and regional selfvariability may cause the abnormal high temperature of 2006, but regional self-variability is the main contributor.
Daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2006 of Chongqing area have been employed to diagnose the impact of climate changes on hightemperature,drought and flood disasters of Chongqing. Results show that significant warming of Chongqing area began at late 1990s. The abrupt temperature change occurred in 1997. During warming period, extreme high temperature event increased obviously, the risk of heat wave rose significantly, meanwhile extreme precipitation event also increased obviously, the risk of flood rose significantly. Furthermore, the trends of each grade regional average precipitation days have been analyzed, the precipitation days of light and moderate rain decrease obviously, which may lead to the risk of drought to increase significantly. Put regional temperature anomalies into two parts, one is the impact of global climate changes on it, the other is regional selfvariability. It was found that the contribution of global climate changes to regional temperature variations increased significantly during warming period. Then we calculated the contributions of global climate changes and regional selfvariability in 2006, respectively, results suggest that global climate changes and regional selfvariability may cause the abnormal high temperature of 2006, but regional self-variability is the main contributor.
2010, 36(9):55-59.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.009
Abstract:
This article first analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of abnormal summer temperature in Shanxi Province. And it explores the factors in the previous and concurrent periods that result in the summer temperature anomalies by using NCEP to analyze the data of the temperature of the northern Pacific.The results show that: it is not obvious in the changes of summer temperature in Shanxi Province over the past 46 years, whose rising trend is only 0.04 ℃ per 10 years, but the decadal variation is obvious. It was the Warmer Period in the 1960s and the mid1970s, while it was the Cooler Period in the late 1970s and 1980s, and it turned to the Warmer Period in the late 1990s. There are great differences in the trend of the summer temperature changes in Shanxi. The trend in the northern and central parts is warmer and warmer, while that in most of the southern part is cooler and cooler. The circulating airflow differences are significant between hot and cool summer in the previous and concurrent periods. The critical systems that influence the summer temperature anomalies in Shanxi Province are the polar vortex,the blocking high in the high latitude region and the subtropical high. The La Nina event in prewinter and spring may be a precursor of the summer temperature anomalies in Shanxi.
This article first analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of abnormal summer temperature in Shanxi Province. And it explores the factors in the previous and concurrent periods that result in the summer temperature anomalies by using NCEP to analyze the data of the temperature of the northern Pacific.The results show that: it is not obvious in the changes of summer temperature in Shanxi Province over the past 46 years, whose rising trend is only 0.04 ℃ per 10 years, but the decadal variation is obvious. It was the Warmer Period in the 1960s and the mid1970s, while it was the Cooler Period in the late 1970s and 1980s, and it turned to the Warmer Period in the late 1990s. There are great differences in the trend of the summer temperature changes in Shanxi. The trend in the northern and central parts is warmer and warmer, while that in most of the southern part is cooler and cooler. The circulating airflow differences are significant between hot and cool summer in the previous and concurrent periods. The critical systems that influence the summer temperature anomalies in Shanxi Province are the polar vortex,the blocking high in the high latitude region and the subtropical high. The La Nina event in prewinter and spring may be a precursor of the summer temperature anomalies in Shanxi.
2010, 36(9):60-67.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.010
Abstract:
By using T639 model, conventional observation data and NCEP reanalysis data (1°×1°), the model ability in predicting heavy rain events, together with the governing weather systems, over the Yangtze River Basin in 2008, is validated in the paper. The results showed that T639 model has made a correct prediction for the precipitation area, location and moving trends, the threat score of 24 h rainfall forecast is 56. The primary affecting systems such as the plateau trough, lowlevel southwest jet, southwest vortex and Eurasia largescale circulation background in the high latitudes have obtained a more accurate portrayal. In the test field of various physical quantities, reflecting the heavy rain power structure, the model had a good prediction for the specific humidity and water vapor flux, but a bit weaker for the vorticity, divergence field and wind speed. The work will be helpful in better utilizing the model results in conventional weather prediction, as well as in providing valuable suggestions to further improvement of the model.
By using T639 model, conventional observation data and NCEP reanalysis data (1°×1°), the model ability in predicting heavy rain events, together with the governing weather systems, over the Yangtze River Basin in 2008, is validated in the paper. The results showed that T639 model has made a correct prediction for the precipitation area, location and moving trends, the threat score of 24 h rainfall forecast is 56. The primary affecting systems such as the plateau trough, lowlevel southwest jet, southwest vortex and Eurasia largescale circulation background in the high latitudes have obtained a more accurate portrayal. In the test field of various physical quantities, reflecting the heavy rain power structure, the model had a good prediction for the specific humidity and water vapor flux, but a bit weaker for the vorticity, divergence field and wind speed. The work will be helpful in better utilizing the model results in conventional weather prediction, as well as in providing valuable suggestions to further improvement of the model.
2010, 36(9):68-73.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.011
Abstract:
Using MICAPS realtime sounding data, the atmospheric inversion layers of single stations were converted into atmospheric horizontal inversion zone and the automatic diagnostic analysis of the latter was achieved， by researching the relationship of atmospheric horizontal inversion zone and freezing rain falling zone. Afterwards, the atmospheric horizontal inversion zone, highaltitude wet areas, the ground air 0 ℃ line, and the 0 ℃ line of extreme temperature of inversion layer, were used to constitute the basic conceptual model of freezing rain falling zone; furthermore, on the basic conceptual model, the automatic diagnostic analysis method of freezing rain falling zone was developed and was tested in the severely freezing weather in southern China early 2008. The method shows the strong diagnostic analysis ability and has good prospects for operational applications.
Using MICAPS realtime sounding data, the atmospheric inversion layers of single stations were converted into atmospheric horizontal inversion zone and the automatic diagnostic analysis of the latter was achieved， by researching the relationship of atmospheric horizontal inversion zone and freezing rain falling zone. Afterwards, the atmospheric horizontal inversion zone, highaltitude wet areas, the ground air 0 ℃ line, and the 0 ℃ line of extreme temperature of inversion layer, were used to constitute the basic conceptual model of freezing rain falling zone; furthermore, on the basic conceptual model, the automatic diagnostic analysis method of freezing rain falling zone was developed and was tested in the severely freezing weather in southern China early 2008. The method shows the strong diagnostic analysis ability and has good prospects for operational applications.
2010, 36(9):74-80.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.012
Abstract:
The cloud microphysical data sampled with probes of Particles Measuring System ( PMS) on 3 March 2007 in Henan Province are analyzed. The results show that the maximum number concentration of small particles sampled with FSSP100 probe is 125 cm-3 at altitudes of 2875 m to 4600 m. The mean concentration is 21.3 cm-3. The mean diameter is around 6-20 μm. The data of 2DC probe show that the maximum number concentration of large particles changes from 5. 24 L-1 to 192 L-1. The maximum water content explored with KingLWC probe is 0.035-0.118 g·m-3. The inversion is detected by aircraft ascending and descending on 3 March 2007. There is a peak value of liquid water content (LWC) below the top of the inversion layer. The cloud droplet spectra are analyzed. Both vertical and horizontal distributions in stratiform clouds show obviously inhomogeneous features.
The cloud microphysical data sampled with probes of Particles Measuring System ( PMS) on 3 March 2007 in Henan Province are analyzed. The results show that the maximum number concentration of small particles sampled with FSSP100 probe is 125 cm-3 at altitudes of 2875 m to 4600 m. The mean concentration is 21.3 cm-3. The mean diameter is around 6-20 μm. The data of 2DC probe show that the maximum number concentration of large particles changes from 5. 24 L-1 to 192 L-1. The maximum water content explored with KingLWC probe is 0.035-0.118 g·m-3. The inversion is detected by aircraft ascending and descending on 3 March 2007. There is a peak value of liquid water content (LWC) below the top of the inversion layer. The cloud droplet spectra are analyzed. Both vertical and horizontal distributions in stratiform clouds show obviously inhomogeneous features.
2010, 36(9):81-86.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.013
Abstract:
The grid data of numerical weather prediction (NWP) are used to forecast the 2min wind velocity and direction at fixed time for the station affected by typhoon. Integrating and analyzing the station data of MICAPS, we select the relatively complete observational materials of more than 400 stations in coastal regions and islands as the raw data for prediction. Meanwhile， the nine suitable forecast factors are fixed by the correlation analysis with the NCEP reanalysis grid data. Based on the back propagation (BP) network, latitudinal and longitudinal artificial neural network models are developed for each station respectively. The absolute error of fitting wind velocity is 1.3 m·s-1. The test of independent samples shows that the absolute error of wind velocity is less than 2.0 m·s-1. This is a statistical interpretation of NWP, and it can pre-estimate the wind velocity effectively in landfall typhoon-affected areas.
The grid data of numerical weather prediction (NWP) are used to forecast the 2min wind velocity and direction at fixed time for the station affected by typhoon. Integrating and analyzing the station data of MICAPS, we select the relatively complete observational materials of more than 400 stations in coastal regions and islands as the raw data for prediction. Meanwhile， the nine suitable forecast factors are fixed by the correlation analysis with the NCEP reanalysis grid data. Based on the back propagation (BP) network, latitudinal and longitudinal artificial neural network models are developed for each station respectively. The absolute error of fitting wind velocity is 1.3 m·s-1. The test of independent samples shows that the absolute error of wind velocity is less than 2.0 m·s-1. This is a statistical interpretation of NWP, and it can pre-estimate the wind velocity effectively in landfall typhoon-affected areas.
2010, 36(9):87-93.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.014
Abstract:
Preevaluation method of disastrous weather progress based on multifactor comprehensive index is put forward，and proposes that estimate should contain a degree of severe weather progress and disaster impact in two parts. It takes process of low temperature, raining and snowing, icing in Hubei Province in the beginning of 2008 for example. Firstly, the multifactor comprehensive index quantitatively describes the process of low temperature, raining and snowing. The comprehensive indexes of historical sleet process are calculated with meteorological data of every observation station in Hubei. And the index of most seriously process per year forms a historical sequence. The recurrence of the annual index and the index of different recurrent are computed with Gumbel extreme distribution. Rank of yearly low temperature and sleet process is assessed. Secondly, progressive daily comprehensive index of sleet process in 2008 is calculated with multiple meteorological factors. By comparing with the rank and the recurrence period of the comprehensive index, the process in 2008 was evaluated. Finally, by analogy of comprehensive index, historical disaster scenario analysis and short and medium range weather forecasts, the progress to future development degree can be preevaluated. Different combination of multiple meteorological factors can be used in the analysis character of disaster.
Preevaluation method of disastrous weather progress based on multifactor comprehensive index is put forward，and proposes that estimate should contain a degree of severe weather progress and disaster impact in two parts. It takes process of low temperature, raining and snowing, icing in Hubei Province in the beginning of 2008 for example. Firstly, the multifactor comprehensive index quantitatively describes the process of low temperature, raining and snowing. The comprehensive indexes of historical sleet process are calculated with meteorological data of every observation station in Hubei. And the index of most seriously process per year forms a historical sequence. The recurrence of the annual index and the index of different recurrent are computed with Gumbel extreme distribution. Rank of yearly low temperature and sleet process is assessed. Secondly, progressive daily comprehensive index of sleet process in 2008 is calculated with multiple meteorological factors. By comparing with the rank and the recurrence period of the comprehensive index, the process in 2008 was evaluated. Finally, by analogy of comprehensive index, historical disaster scenario analysis and short and medium range weather forecasts, the progress to future development degree can be preevaluated. Different combination of multiple meteorological factors can be used in the analysis character of disaster.
2010, 36(9):94-99.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.015
Abstract:
The offing typhoon in west of 130°E and major flooding events in Shaanxi during the past 35 years (1970-2004) were analytically studied by applying methods of statistics, synoptic, satellite cloud image analysis and physical diagnosis. Results show that the correlation is close to 90%. Major flooding events are concentrated in July and August, occupying nearly 88% of the total. When a typhoon originates in 130°E or moves westwards from the West Pacific across 130°E, it has more obvious influences on major flooding events in Shaanxi. The required water vapor and energy are transited through easterly winds around the typhoon center, especially in 850 hPa level. The offing typhoon provides necessary water vapor and energy to the occurrence and enhancement of floodcausing torrential rain in Shaanxi, and typhoon influence is an important factor to induce major flooding events in Shaanxi.
The offing typhoon in west of 130°E and major flooding events in Shaanxi during the past 35 years (1970-2004) were analytically studied by applying methods of statistics, synoptic, satellite cloud image analysis and physical diagnosis. Results show that the correlation is close to 90%. Major flooding events are concentrated in July and August, occupying nearly 88% of the total. When a typhoon originates in 130°E or moves westwards from the West Pacific across 130°E, it has more obvious influences on major flooding events in Shaanxi. The required water vapor and energy are transited through easterly winds around the typhoon center, especially in 850 hPa level. The offing typhoon provides necessary water vapor and energy to the occurrence and enhancement of floodcausing torrential rain in Shaanxi, and typhoon influence is an important factor to induce major flooding events in Shaanxi.
2010, 36(9):100-105.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.016
Abstract:
In the Ps score assessment, the forecast skills are determined by the difference between Ps score of operational forecast and random forecast accuracy over a period of time. The paper attempts to make quantitative evaluation of the random forecast accuracy among all the provinces and regions in China， and the statistical results are as follows. (1) Owing to the obvious difference of the random forecast accuracy about station elements determined by climate probability in each grade in every province, the maximum difference of precipitation score is 14, and the maximum difference of temperature score is 7. (2) Since the judging standard of forecast accuracy has been designed vulnerably, the accuracy of two grade forecast and continuous forecast may be higher than random forecast accuracy, it brings uncertainty to the quantitative evaluation of random forecast accuracy; (3) The score of random forecast might be higher than that of the actual forecast if these factors affecting the score are applied to quantitative assessment. The result shows that the current scoring methods could not access the forecast skills in various provinces properly.
In the Ps score assessment, the forecast skills are determined by the difference between Ps score of operational forecast and random forecast accuracy over a period of time. The paper attempts to make quantitative evaluation of the random forecast accuracy among all the provinces and regions in China， and the statistical results are as follows. (1) Owing to the obvious difference of the random forecast accuracy about station elements determined by climate probability in each grade in every province, the maximum difference of precipitation score is 14, and the maximum difference of temperature score is 7. (2) Since the judging standard of forecast accuracy has been designed vulnerably, the accuracy of two grade forecast and continuous forecast may be higher than random forecast accuracy, it brings uncertainty to the quantitative evaluation of random forecast accuracy; (3) The score of random forecast might be higher than that of the actual forecast if these factors affecting the score are applied to quantitative assessment. The result shows that the current scoring methods could not access the forecast skills in various provinces properly.
2010, 36(9):106-110.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.017
Abstract:
Based on the clinical data of Jilin Province several hospitals and the corresponding meteorological data, this study has analyzed the relationship between CVD(cardiocerebral vascular disease) and the weather conditions in Jilin Province. Results show that the recurrence and the aggravation of CVD have a certain relationship to the weather conditions, and different patients have different sensitivities to the weather changes. Among all the weather conditions, the impact of low air pressure and feeling of sultriness over the CVD are the most significant, with a confirmation rate of 74%. Whether in winter half year or summer half year, in Changchun City, both the sharp changes in air pressure and temperature are prone to cause coronary heart disease relapse, the relatively huge rise of air pressure and fall of air temperature are unfavorable to cerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction, a〖JP2〗nd the high blood pressure is mainly related to air pressure fluctuations and relatively humid weather. In Liaoyuan City, the incidence of CVD increases along with the falling of average daily temperature, dropping of extreme temperature and rise of air pressure. Through the analysis of meteorological factors in the development of CVD, we also found that hightemperature and high humidity weather can lead to the increase of cardiac output and cardiac load, eventually result in the falling of cardiac function. Besides, strong temperature drop can cause the rise of body’s adrenaline level, resulting in accelerated heart rate and blood pressure, and the stimulation of coldness can induce the overexcitement of sympathetic nerve, producing coronary spasm or even myocardial infarction. Finally, the medical weather forecasting model was established in Changchun and Liaoyuan City.
Based on the clinical data of Jilin Province several hospitals and the corresponding meteorological data, this study has analyzed the relationship between CVD(cardiocerebral vascular disease) and the weather conditions in Jilin Province. Results show that the recurrence and the aggravation of CVD have a certain relationship to the weather conditions, and different patients have different sensitivities to the weather changes. Among all the weather conditions, the impact of low air pressure and feeling of sultriness over the CVD are the most significant, with a confirmation rate of 74%. Whether in winter half year or summer half year, in Changchun City, both the sharp changes in air pressure and temperature are prone to cause coronary heart disease relapse, the relatively huge rise of air pressure and fall of air temperature are unfavorable to cerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction, a〖JP2〗nd the high blood pressure is mainly related to air pressure fluctuations and relatively humid weather. In Liaoyuan City, the incidence of CVD increases along with the falling of average daily temperature, dropping of extreme temperature and rise of air pressure. Through the analysis of meteorological factors in the development of CVD, we also found that hightemperature and high humidity weather can lead to the increase of cardiac output and cardiac load, eventually result in the falling of cardiac function. Besides, strong temperature drop can cause the rise of body’s adrenaline level, resulting in accelerated heart rate and blood pressure, and the stimulation of coldness can induce the overexcitement of sympathetic nerve, producing coronary spasm or even myocardial infarction. Finally, the medical weather forecasting model was established in Changchun and Liaoyuan City.
2010, 36(9):111-115.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.018
Abstract:
The applications of satellite data are effective methods for solar energy resources assessment. These methods were applied in China from the 1980s at two aspects, one is using satellite remote sensing data directly (Statistical Methods), and the other is using satellite remote sensing data indirectly (Physical Methods). With the summary of these two aspects, the advantages and difficult points of the satellite data application in solar energy resources assessment are discussed. It is considered that the observation method from above to below and the high resolution are the main advantages. However, the calculations of the influences of cloud and aerosol on surface radiation are the two difficulties.
The applications of satellite data are effective methods for solar energy resources assessment. These methods were applied in China from the 1980s at two aspects, one is using satellite remote sensing data directly (Statistical Methods), and the other is using satellite remote sensing data indirectly (Physical Methods). With the summary of these two aspects, the advantages and difficult points of the satellite data application in solar energy resources assessment are discussed. It is considered that the observation method from above to below and the high resolution are the main advantages. However, the calculations of the influences of cloud and aerosol on surface radiation are the two difficulties.
2010, 36(9):116-119.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.019
Abstract:
Calibration measurements of pyranometers at the Shang Dianzi Regional GAW ( Global Atmospheric Watch) Station are presented in this manuscript. The results show that the sensitivity of pyranometer determined by the CM22 is very agreeable to those determined by HF cavity radiometer which is used as a standard for pyranometers. The difference of the sensitivities determined by two standards is no more than ±0.1 μV·W-1·m2, and the difference of their induced solar shortwave irradiances is generally within ±5 W·m-2.In summery, the portable CM22 pyranometer can be used as the reference of pyranometer in GAW field calibration, and their calibration sensitivities satisfy with accuracy requirement of the BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) operations.
Calibration measurements of pyranometers at the Shang Dianzi Regional GAW ( Global Atmospheric Watch) Station are presented in this manuscript. The results show that the sensitivity of pyranometer determined by the CM22 is very agreeable to those determined by HF cavity radiometer which is used as a standard for pyranometers. The difference of the sensitivities determined by two standards is no more than ±0.1 μV·W-1·m2, and the difference of their induced solar shortwave irradiances is generally within ±5 W·m-2.In summery, the portable CM22 pyranometer can be used as the reference of pyranometer in GAW field calibration, and their calibration sensitivities satisfy with accuracy requirement of the BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) operations.
2010, 36(9):120-125.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.020
Abstract:
The following are the main characteristics of the general circulation of atmosphere in June 2010. There are two polar vortex centers apart from the polar area. The north branch frontal zone lies northward, so the cold air is weaker. The geopotential height in the Eurasian area is higher. More troughs occur in the low latitude. The West Pacific subtropical high extends to the west of its normal position and its intensity is stronger. The average rainfall is 95.0 mm, near normal. The average temperature is 20.5 ℃ and is higher than normal year for 1.0 ℃. In this month, consistent heavy rainfall processes hit the Southern China. Exceptional high temperature appears in Northeastern China and some areas in Xinjiang. Strong wind and hail disaster hit Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu etc.
The following are the main characteristics of the general circulation of atmosphere in June 2010. There are two polar vortex centers apart from the polar area. The north branch frontal zone lies northward, so the cold air is weaker. The geopotential height in the Eurasian area is higher. More troughs occur in the low latitude. The West Pacific subtropical high extends to the west of its normal position and its intensity is stronger. The average rainfall is 95.0 mm, near normal. The average temperature is 20.5 ℃ and is higher than normal year for 1.0 ℃. In this month, consistent heavy rainfall processes hit the Southern China. Exceptional high temperature appears in Northeastern China and some areas in Xinjiang. Strong wind and hail disaster hit Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu etc.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P