ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 36,Issue 7,2010 Table of Contents
2010, 36(7):1-4.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.002
Abstract:
Reviewing the past 60year developmental course of weather forecast and summarizing its successful experiences we can point out that the modernization development of weather services is basically characterized by the more fineness of weather forecast, and meantime it has taken the forecast accuracy as fundamental requirement on the basis of the strengthening forecast fineness at time and space scales. The 60year practical experiences of weather forecast have indicated that the modernization process of weather services receives benefits from the following aspects: (1) the development of theories in atmospheric sciences; (2 ) the progress in modern meteorological science and technology; (3) the improvement of meteorological operation system; and (4) the increasing needs of weather services. Facing the further development of modern weather forecast, we put forward the four key problems needed for consideration:（1) the key role played by numerical weather prediction technique; (2 ) the professional system of forecast technique; (3) the integrated forecast operational procedures; and (4) the forecaster team with expert characteristics. All the aspects mentioned above should be the main tasks for developing the modern weather forecast.
Reviewing the past 60year developmental course of weather forecast and summarizing its successful experiences we can point out that the modernization development of weather services is basically characterized by the more fineness of weather forecast, and meantime it has taken the forecast accuracy as fundamental requirement on the basis of the strengthening forecast fineness at time and space scales. The 60year practical experiences of weather forecast have indicated that the modernization process of weather services receives benefits from the following aspects: (1) the development of theories in atmospheric sciences; (2 ) the progress in modern meteorological science and technology; (3) the improvement of meteorological operation system; and (4) the increasing needs of weather services. Facing the further development of modern weather forecast, we put forward the four key problems needed for consideration:（1) the key role played by numerical weather prediction technique; (2 ) the professional system of forecast technique; (3) the integrated forecast operational procedures; and (4) the forecaster team with expert characteristics. All the aspects mentioned above should be the main tasks for developing the modern weather forecast.
2010, 36(7):5-11.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.003
Abstract:
The Central Meteorological Office (CMO) has experienced an extraordinary, 60year development course since its establishment in 1950. Reviewing the past development course of weather operational forecasts at the CMO, summarizing the present achievements obtained from weather operational forecasts and looking to the future goals, we have even more strengthened our confidence in the development of weather operational forecasts.
The Central Meteorological Office (CMO) has experienced an extraordinary, 60year development course since its establishment in 1950. Reviewing the past development course of weather operational forecasts at the CMO, summarizing the present achievements obtained from weather operational forecasts and looking to the future goals, we have even more strengthened our confidence in the development of weather operational forecasts.
2010, 36(7):12-15.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.004
Abstract:
The 60year development course of NWP operational system has been reviewed since the establishment of the Central Meteorological Office. It is pointed out that NWP is a sysytem construction of meteorological engineer and the result of multidisciplinary integration and theorytechnology combination. The decisionmaking scientifically and the practical processes are reviewed from the aspects of targets,technical line,working pattern, personnel training and engineering construction etc. It is illustrated that the decisionmaking scientifically is the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of meteorological operation system construction. It can be seen from the above engineering construction that the history in the 30year successful development of NWP has demonstrated the correctness of the scientific outlook on development.
The 60year development course of NWP operational system has been reviewed since the establishment of the Central Meteorological Office. It is pointed out that NWP is a sysytem construction of meteorological engineer and the result of multidisciplinary integration and theorytechnology combination. The decisionmaking scientifically and the practical processes are reviewed from the aspects of targets,technical line,working pattern, personnel training and engineering construction etc. It is illustrated that the decisionmaking scientifically is the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of meteorological operation system construction. It can be seen from the above engineering construction that the history in the 30year successful development of NWP has demonstrated the correctness of the scientific outlook on development.
2010, 36(7):16-20.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.005
Abstract:
This paper reviewed briefly the development of operational weather forecast and service in the Central Meteorological Office since its founding in 1950 to the end of 1979. It could be divided into 3 stages. The first stage was from its founding to the late 1950s. The main difficulties in this stage were lack of observation data for constructing synoptic weather maps and lack of qualified forecasters. Thanks to the National First 5 Year Plan, a large amount of surface weather stations and radiosound stations were set up. A joint weather forecasting center was operating during 1950—1955, jointly by the Central Meteorological Office and the Geophysical Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, which promoted the growth of weather forecasters and the development of operational work as well. The second stage was from late 1950s to early 1970s. Disturbed seriously by ‘culture revolution’ and wrong technical policies adopted by Meteorological Service, no significant progress has been made during the stage. Fortunately, the whole works were not paralyzed. However, the technical gaps between China and developed countries in these respects were widen greatly. The third stage was from middle of 1970s to end of 1970s. Having restored its legal seat in WMO 1973, China soon jointed the WWW program of WMO. In the program, China was recommended to be a Regional Meteorological Center and a Regional Telecommunication hub in the WWW frame work. In later years the Central Meteorological Office main works were to do the preparation for this purpose: purchase appropriate equipments including computers; training the technical personnel; software development and bilateral talks between China and other countries to establish telecommunication line, etc. By the end of 1970s, all the preparation has been done, the Central Meteorological Office then changed its title as Regional Meteorological Center and ready for a new development in later years.
This paper reviewed briefly the development of operational weather forecast and service in the Central Meteorological Office since its founding in 1950 to the end of 1979. It could be divided into 3 stages. The first stage was from its founding to the late 1950s. The main difficulties in this stage were lack of observation data for constructing synoptic weather maps and lack of qualified forecasters. Thanks to the National First 5 Year Plan, a large amount of surface weather stations and radiosound stations were set up. A joint weather forecasting center was operating during 1950—1955, jointly by the Central Meteorological Office and the Geophysical Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, which promoted the growth of weather forecasters and the development of operational work as well. The second stage was from late 1950s to early 1970s. Disturbed seriously by ‘culture revolution’ and wrong technical policies adopted by Meteorological Service, no significant progress has been made during the stage. Fortunately, the whole works were not paralyzed. However, the technical gaps between China and developed countries in these respects were widen greatly. The third stage was from middle of 1970s to end of 1970s. Having restored its legal seat in WMO 1973, China soon jointed the WWW program of WMO. In the program, China was recommended to be a Regional Meteorological Center and a Regional Telecommunication hub in the WWW frame work. In later years the Central Meteorological Office main works were to do the preparation for this purpose: purchase appropriate equipments including computers; training the technical personnel; software development and bilateral talks between China and other countries to establish telecommunication line, etc. By the end of 1970s, all the preparation has been done, the Central Meteorological Office then changed its title as Regional Meteorological Center and ready for a new development in later years.
2010, 36(7):21-25.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.006
Abstract:
The history of the shortrange climate monitoring and prediction operation is reviewed in the paper. The operation feature and main advances are summarized. Based on the needs from economic and social development, the shortage of the prediction skill and operation ability to service need is analyzed. The seamless operation frame covering from the extended range (15-30 days), month, season, year, interannual to decadal timescales is presented as the aim for future operation.
The history of the shortrange climate monitoring and prediction operation is reviewed in the paper. The operation feature and main advances are summarized. Based on the needs from economic and social development, the shortage of the prediction skill and operation ability to service need is analyzed. The seamless operation frame covering from the extended range (15-30 days), month, season, year, interannual to decadal timescales is presented as the aim for future operation.
2010, 36(7):26-32.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.007
Abstract:
The developing course of national operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems since established in the National Meteorological Center is reviewed, mainly focusing on shortrange and mediumrange systems. The forecast level and essential features of the current systems are assessed. The major progress achieved in each stage of NWP development is outlined. Through analysis of the problems and shortage of current stage of NWP development, the near future key points of Chinese NWP development are discussed and the prospects are outlooked.
The developing course of national operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems since established in the National Meteorological Center is reviewed, mainly focusing on shortrange and mediumrange systems. The forecast level and essential features of the current systems are assessed. The major progress achieved in each stage of NWP development is outlined. Through analysis of the problems and shortage of current stage of NWP development, the near future key points of Chinese NWP development are discussed and the prospects are outlooked.
2010, 36(7):33-42.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.008
Abstract:
The shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather is to meet the demands of national preventing and mitigating disasters, major social activities, and fine weather service. Although great progresses in the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather were made in China in recent years, there are still many gaps between China and developed countries. The current development of technique and operation status on the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather are reviewed. The challenges in China are summarized and the corresponding measures are proposed. Currently, the main techniques on the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather can be classified as three types: the extrapolation forecast, numerical model forecast, and the knowledgebased forecast technique. However, the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast and the data of the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellites will play important roles in the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather. The surveillances, analyses, and mechanism research of the convective weather are the foundation of the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting. The advanced extrapolation forecast, the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast, and their blending forecast are the important development directions of the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting in future.
The shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather is to meet the demands of national preventing and mitigating disasters, major social activities, and fine weather service. Although great progresses in the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather were made in China in recent years, there are still many gaps between China and developed countries. The current development of technique and operation status on the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather are reviewed. The challenges in China are summarized and the corresponding measures are proposed. Currently, the main techniques on the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather can be classified as three types: the extrapolation forecast, numerical model forecast, and the knowledgebased forecast technique. However, the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast and the data of the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellites will play important roles in the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather. The surveillances, analyses, and mechanism research of the convective weather are the foundation of the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting. The advanced extrapolation forecast, the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast, and their blending forecast are the important development directions of the shortterm forecasting and nowcasting in future.
2010, 36(7):43-49.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.009
Abstract:
With continuous progresses and improvements in NWP and integrated observation systems, China operational tropical cyclone forecasting has made considerable progresses since the nineties of last century. Operational tropical cyclone track forecasting especially has made a significant level of progress and reached the international advanced level. By reviewing and analyzing the current situation of national and international operational tropical cyclone forecasting, the main problems, operational forecasting difficulties and urgent scientific issues to be solved in current China operational typhoon forecasting are analyzed. Then an overview on the challenge of China operational typhoon forecasting under the global climate change and the growing demand in national disaster prevention and preparedness is made, some considerations about the development of China operational typhoon forecasting in the future are given, and finally some measures for improving China operational typhoon forecasting are proposed.
With continuous progresses and improvements in NWP and integrated observation systems, China operational tropical cyclone forecasting has made considerable progresses since the nineties of last century. Operational tropical cyclone track forecasting especially has made a significant level of progress and reached the international advanced level. By reviewing and analyzing the current situation of national and international operational tropical cyclone forecasting, the main problems, operational forecasting difficulties and urgent scientific issues to be solved in current China operational typhoon forecasting are analyzed. Then an overview on the challenge of China operational typhoon forecasting under the global climate change and the growing demand in national disaster prevention and preparedness is made, some considerations about the development of China operational typhoon forecasting in the future are given, and finally some measures for improving China operational typhoon forecasting are proposed.
2010, 36(7):50-55.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.010
Abstract:
The history and the fecture of MICAPS, the implementation and architecture, and key technology of new version MICAPS (the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System) V3 are introduced, and the main functions and corealgorithm of MICAPS V3 are also presented. The open architecture is used in MICAPS version 3.0. The flexible basic framework is charged with main window, map projections, layer control etc., and the functions are implemented by extended modules. Therefore this architecture can support the extended development by local WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices). All kinds of data specified by MICAPS versions 1 and 2 can be redisplayed in MICAPS version 3. This new version software can additionally display CINRAD level Ⅱ and level Ⅲ data, GPF and AWX format meteorological satellite data, GPS/MET data, AMDAR data, and wind profiler data. It has five data searching modes: filename searching, parameter searching, composite chart file searching, menu searching and scrolling page searching. It provides accumulated precipitation calculation, weather consultation, and history data searching function.
The history and the fecture of MICAPS, the implementation and architecture, and key technology of new version MICAPS (the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System) V3 are introduced, and the main functions and corealgorithm of MICAPS V3 are also presented. The open architecture is used in MICAPS version 3.0. The flexible basic framework is charged with main window, map projections, layer control etc., and the functions are implemented by extended modules. Therefore this architecture can support the extended development by local WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices). All kinds of data specified by MICAPS versions 1 and 2 can be redisplayed in MICAPS version 3. This new version software can additionally display CINRAD level Ⅱ and level Ⅲ data, GPF and AWX format meteorological satellite data, GPS/MET data, AMDAR data, and wind profiler data. It has five data searching modes: filename searching, parameter searching, composite chart file searching, menu searching and scrolling page searching. It provides accumulated precipitation calculation, weather consultation, and history data searching function.
2010, 36(7):56-61.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.011
Abstract:
The Meteorological Information Communication System is an operation platform of collecting and distributing of information for supporting the services of weather forecast and the researches on atmospheric sciences. The development of CMA’s meteorological communication services passed through the stages of manual transmission evolving into automatic transmission, and the pointtopoint transmission to the integrated transmission system implemented based on network communication and broadcasting services. Currently, CMA’s meteorological information communication systems, consisting of domestic and international communication systems, have the capacities of collecting and disseminating global exchanged data, domestic observations and forecast products, as well as controlling and monitoring the data exchange flow. Its services cover all of the meteorological bureaus and observatories over China, as well as other relevant national agencies and users. The article gives a brief review to the development history of CMA’s meteorological communication services, an introduction to the technologies and services implemented in CMA’s current meteorological information communication systems, and a prospect to their future development.
The Meteorological Information Communication System is an operation platform of collecting and distributing of information for supporting the services of weather forecast and the researches on atmospheric sciences. The development of CMA’s meteorological communication services passed through the stages of manual transmission evolving into automatic transmission, and the pointtopoint transmission to the integrated transmission system implemented based on network communication and broadcasting services. Currently, CMA’s meteorological information communication systems, consisting of domestic and international communication systems, have the capacities of collecting and disseminating global exchanged data, domestic observations and forecast products, as well as controlling and monitoring the data exchange flow. Its services cover all of the meteorological bureaus and observatories over China, as well as other relevant national agencies and users. The article gives a brief review to the development history of CMA’s meteorological communication services, an introduction to the technologies and services implemented in CMA’s current meteorological information communication systems, and a prospect to their future development.
2010, 36(7):62-68.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.012
Abstract:
Weather service is being called the beginning and ending of the meteorological work. It is conducive to improve weather services effectively so as to promote the sustaining rapidly development of meteorological work by the benefit assessment of weather services effectively using scientific and objective methods. The situation and outlook on the benefit assessment of operational applications to weather services in China are described, and a standardized, normalized and humanized service of the benefit assessment operations of weather services is also stressed.
Weather service is being called the beginning and ending of the meteorological work. It is conducive to improve weather services effectively so as to promote the sustaining rapidly development of meteorological work by the benefit assessment of weather services effectively using scientific and objective methods. The situation and outlook on the benefit assessment of operational applications to weather services in China are described, and a standardized, normalized and humanized service of the benefit assessment operations of weather services is also stressed.
2010, 36(7):69-74.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.013
Abstract:
The developing course and the consequential achievement of the meteorological decisionmaking services were briefly reviewed. The content and character of the meteorological decisionmaking services as well as the meteorological disaster evaluating technique were described. By studying the meteorological service cases of some significant events, such as the landfalling typhoon, the floodinducing rainstorm, the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather, the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, as well as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Paralympic Games, the factors influencing the meteorological decisionmaking service benefit were analyzed, the successful experiences were summarized, and some ideas about further improving were put forward.
The developing course and the consequential achievement of the meteorological decisionmaking services were briefly reviewed. The content and character of the meteorological decisionmaking services as well as the meteorological disaster evaluating technique were described. By studying the meteorological service cases of some significant events, such as the landfalling typhoon, the floodinducing rainstorm, the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather, the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, as well as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Paralympic Games, the factors influencing the meteorological decisionmaking service benefit were analyzed, the successful experiences were summarized, and some ideas about further improving were put forward.
2010, 36(7):75-80.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.014
Abstract:
In the recent 50 years, nationallevel agrometeorological operation is developed and its domain of service also constantly expanded. The series service is formed, which includes agrometeorological information, crop yield and output forecasting, agrometeorological disaster monitoring, warning and assessing, ecological meteorological monitoring and agricultural weather forecast. The operational techniques are based on indices and supported by remote sensing and GIS. The techniques of index discrimination, statistic analyses and prediction,model simulation and comprehensive integration etc. are developed, for meeting the demands of agrometeorological service . In the future, agrometeorological operation will be more conformed to the standard, and will be more accurate and quantitative.
In the recent 50 years, nationallevel agrometeorological operation is developed and its domain of service also constantly expanded. The series service is formed, which includes agrometeorological information, crop yield and output forecasting, agrometeorological disaster monitoring, warning and assessing, ecological meteorological monitoring and agricultural weather forecast. The operational techniques are based on indices and supported by remote sensing and GIS. The techniques of index discrimination, statistic analyses and prediction,model simulation and comprehensive integration etc. are developed, for meeting the demands of agrometeorological service . In the future, agrometeorological operation will be more conformed to the standard, and will be more accurate and quantitative.
2010, 36(7):81-93.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.015
Abstract:
Several heavy rain cases in recent years and in history were analyzed. The results show that the downstream development effects caused by the energy dispersal of Rossby waves through Asia jet have important impacts on the formation and development of high level troughs and the path and long life period of landed typhoons in East Asia. If the energy of stationary Rossby waves through Asia jet could form an intensive upper level trough or deepen a preexiting one near 110°E, the strong upward motion induced by largescale forcing is in favor of the development of heavy rainfall in eastern China. When the downstream effects help developing an intense close anticyclone at high and middle levels of troposphere around 40°N in East Asia, and there is a typhoon or tropical storm from the West Pacific to mainland China, the landed tropical cyclone would tend to move towards west or northwest under the steering current around the anticyclonic edge. At the same time if the monsoon surges from the South China Sea are strong enough, the landed tropical cyclone will have a long journey over the land and produce heavy rainfall and floods. It was found that the global NWP models used in operation could, to some extent, forecast the downstream development of Rossby waves at mediumrange scale. Therefore, it is possible to monitor the abrupt changes or adjustment of large scale circulation caused by downstream effects at Asia jet in operational forecast process. The Hovmller diagram is a simple, intuitional, and effective tool for analyzing the Rossby wave downstream effects in forecast operation.
Several heavy rain cases in recent years and in history were analyzed. The results show that the downstream development effects caused by the energy dispersal of Rossby waves through Asia jet have important impacts on the formation and development of high level troughs and the path and long life period of landed typhoons in East Asia. If the energy of stationary Rossby waves through Asia jet could form an intensive upper level trough or deepen a preexiting one near 110°E, the strong upward motion induced by largescale forcing is in favor of the development of heavy rainfall in eastern China. When the downstream effects help developing an intense close anticyclone at high and middle levels of troposphere around 40°N in East Asia, and there is a typhoon or tropical storm from the West Pacific to mainland China, the landed tropical cyclone would tend to move towards west or northwest under the steering current around the anticyclonic edge. At the same time if the monsoon surges from the South China Sea are strong enough, the landed tropical cyclone will have a long journey over the land and produce heavy rainfall and floods. It was found that the global NWP models used in operation could, to some extent, forecast the downstream development of Rossby waves at mediumrange scale. Therefore, it is possible to monitor the abrupt changes or adjustment of large scale circulation caused by downstream effects at Asia jet in operational forecast process. The Hovmller diagram is a simple, intuitional, and effective tool for analyzing the Rossby wave downstream effects in forecast operation.
2010, 36(7):94-100.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.016
Abstract:
Status of FY series meteorological satellites of China is introduced. Comparisons between Chinese and international meteorological satellites are made in observation items, technical indicators, operation reliability, data sharing level and applications. With great efforts in the past 40 years, FY1/3 polar orbiting and FY2 geostationary meteorological satellites are now both in operation. Data and products from Chinese meteorological satellites on atmosphere and earth environment status have been broadly used in weather forecast, short range climate prediction, environmental/natural hazard monitoring, agriculture and other economical fields. Data and products from Chinese meteorological satellites are not only broadcasted in real time, but also accessed through Internet web site. But,quantitative accuracy of data from Chinese meteorological satellites, assimilation of data into numerical model and skills of forecaster at image interpretation need to be improved. Fundamental research at raising instrument accuracy, improving data preprocessing, processing and simulation levels and applications must be enhanced.
Status of FY series meteorological satellites of China is introduced. Comparisons between Chinese and international meteorological satellites are made in observation items, technical indicators, operation reliability, data sharing level and applications. With great efforts in the past 40 years, FY1/3 polar orbiting and FY2 geostationary meteorological satellites are now both in operation. Data and products from Chinese meteorological satellites on atmosphere and earth environment status have been broadly used in weather forecast, short range climate prediction, environmental/natural hazard monitoring, agriculture and other economical fields. Data and products from Chinese meteorological satellites are not only broadcasted in real time, but also accessed through Internet web site. But,quantitative accuracy of data from Chinese meteorological satellites, assimilation of data into numerical model and skills of forecaster at image interpretation need to be improved. Fundamental research at raising instrument accuracy, improving data preprocessing, processing and simulation levels and applications must be enhanced.
2010, 36(7):101-110.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.017
Abstract:
Major part of tropical meteorology can be divided into tropical cyclones and monsoons. Most acute calamities in tropics and extratropical regions were incurred by both of them. The other severe disaster in tropics is the serious drought and desertification, but those are the chronic disaster. Tropical meteorological serious disasters in recent years are described in this paper. Some unusual new findings are also introduced. All of them should be studied by some tropical meteorological research projects or relevant national meteorological research communities. In this paper, the state of the arts on tropical cyclone and monsoon research and some crucial scientific issues are reviewed. On the other hand, the relevant field programs and academic forums related to tropical meteorology are also referred.
Major part of tropical meteorology can be divided into tropical cyclones and monsoons. Most acute calamities in tropics and extratropical regions were incurred by both of them. The other severe disaster in tropics is the serious drought and desertification, but those are the chronic disaster. Tropical meteorological serious disasters in recent years are described in this paper. Some unusual new findings are also introduced. All of them should be studied by some tropical meteorological research projects or relevant national meteorological research communities. In this paper, the state of the arts on tropical cyclone and monsoon research and some crucial scientific issues are reviewed. On the other hand, the relevant field programs and academic forums related to tropical meteorology are also referred.
2010, 36(7):111-122.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.018
Abstract:
In the last decade, the 2-4 week extended range forecast (ERF) has become an important research area for operational developments of both weather forecast and climate prediction. Propagation of intraseasonal oscillation especially MJO (30-60 d oscillation) is a fairly effective method to be used for ERF at present. Internationally, preliminary achievements have been made in years of operational experimentation on weatherclimate forecasting. In this review, the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) as theory basis for ERF is firstly briefly introduced, including basic characteristics of ISO and interactions between ISO and weatherclimate in middle latitudes. Then, developments of predictability, methods and operational application of ERF are reviewed. And signals and relative predictability of ISO for ERF of China are further explored by taking Meiyu over the YangtzeHuaihe Basin as an example. Finally, the developing trend of ERF is described by pointing out some problems in dynamical models.
In the last decade, the 2-4 week extended range forecast (ERF) has become an important research area for operational developments of both weather forecast and climate prediction. Propagation of intraseasonal oscillation especially MJO (30-60 d oscillation) is a fairly effective method to be used for ERF at present. Internationally, preliminary achievements have been made in years of operational experimentation on weatherclimate forecasting. In this review, the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) as theory basis for ERF is firstly briefly introduced, including basic characteristics of ISO and interactions between ISO and weatherclimate in middle latitudes. Then, developments of predictability, methods and operational application of ERF are reviewed. And signals and relative predictability of ISO for ERF of China are further explored by taking Meiyu over the YangtzeHuaihe Basin as an example. Finally, the developing trend of ERF is described by pointing out some problems in dynamical models.
18 Quality Control Procedures for Hourly Precipitation Data
from Automatic Weather Stations in China
REN Zhihua
,
ZHAO Ping
,
ZHANG Qiang
,
ZHANG Zhifu
,
CAO Lijuan
,
YANG Yanru
,
ZOU Fengling
,
ZHAO Yufei
,
ZHAO Huimin
,
CHEN Zhe
2010, 36(7):123-132.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.019
Abstract:
Hourly precipitation data of regional automatic weather stations (AWS) is very vital to meteorological operation in disaster alert, decisionmaking service, forecast validation, etc. Quality status of any data should be knowable before being used. Based on all the hourly precipitation data of regional AWS and national AWS in China from 2002 to 2009 and the characters of its error data, quality control procedures have been developed for real time and nonreal time hourly precipitation data from all of above AWS. In the end, it is presented the quality assessment results on real time hourly precipitation data of regional AWS and national AWS in China from 2006 to 2009 using the above quality control procedures.
Hourly precipitation data of regional automatic weather stations (AWS) is very vital to meteorological operation in disaster alert, decisionmaking service, forecast validation, etc. Quality status of any data should be knowable before being used. Based on all the hourly precipitation data of regional AWS and national AWS in China from 2002 to 2009 and the characters of its error data, quality control procedures have been developed for real time and nonreal time hourly precipitation data from all of above AWS. In the end, it is presented the quality assessment results on real time hourly precipitation data of regional AWS and national AWS in China from 2006 to 2009 using the above quality control procedures.
2010, 36(7):133-142.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.020
Abstract:
The precipitation forecasts of three prediction ensemble systems (ECMWF, NCEP and CMA) from the TIGGECMA archiving center (TIGGE, THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) were assessed against observations of 19 stations located in the DapolingWangjiaba subcatchment of Huaihe Basin. It covers a period of 37day beginning on July 1st, 2008. The Threat Scores（TS）, the Brier Score and a percentile method were employed to assess the performance of the three ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) and their grand ensemble . The skills of probabilistic prediction of the heavy rain events occurring during 22-23 July 2008 were also investigated. The verifications of TS and Brier Scores showed that grand ensemble usually gives the best scores in any of the three EPSs. The verification of Brier Scores showed some members of any three EPSs captured the extreme events even a lead of 10 days. However, the probability skills were usually decreased by a simple ensemble mean. Grand ensemble increased the skill of probabilistic precipitation prediction. Whereas the simulation tends to more underestimate in comparison to the observation as the lead days range from 1 to 10 days. That means the probability forecasts are more skillful with a grand ensemble in comparison to a single EPS. The skills of probabilistic prediction with the grand ensemble were improved not only in space distribution of precipitation, but also in the intensity of it.
The precipitation forecasts of three prediction ensemble systems (ECMWF, NCEP and CMA) from the TIGGECMA archiving center (TIGGE, THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) were assessed against observations of 19 stations located in the DapolingWangjiaba subcatchment of Huaihe Basin. It covers a period of 37day beginning on July 1st, 2008. The Threat Scores（TS）, the Brier Score and a percentile method were employed to assess the performance of the three ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) and their grand ensemble . The skills of probabilistic prediction of the heavy rain events occurring during 22-23 July 2008 were also investigated. The verifications of TS and Brier Scores showed that grand ensemble usually gives the best scores in any of the three EPSs. The verification of Brier Scores showed some members of any three EPSs captured the extreme events even a lead of 10 days. However, the probability skills were usually decreased by a simple ensemble mean. Grand ensemble increased the skill of probabilistic precipitation prediction. Whereas the simulation tends to more underestimate in comparison to the observation as the lead days range from 1 to 10 days. That means the probability forecasts are more skillful with a grand ensemble in comparison to a single EPS. The skills of probabilistic prediction with the grand ensemble were improved not only in space distribution of precipitation, but also in the intensity of it.
ZHANG Xiaoling
,
ZHANG Tao
,
LIU Xinhua
,
ZHOU Qingliang
,
CHEN Yun
,
ZHOU Xiaoxia
,
ZHENG Yongguang
,
ZHAO Surong
2010, 36(7):143-150.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.021
Abstract:
Mesoscale severe weather forecasting ability is limited, in some sense for a lack of valid analysis on mesoscale convective systems and its favorable environments. This paper introduces the mesoscale weather chart analysis techniq ue which was tested in the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Mesoscale weath er chart analyzes the favorable environmental conditions of mesoscale convective systems based on observational data and numerical weather forecast outputs. It includes upperair composite chart and surface chart. In the upperair composite ch art, by analyzing wind, temperature, moisture, temperature change and height change, the diagnostic systems and features in all the lower, middle and upper t roposphere isobaric layers are combined into one plot, which can clearly displa y the available environments and synoptic pattern of severe convective weather. In the surface chart, the analysis contents are pressure, wind, temperature, moi sture, convective weather phenomena and all kinds of boundaries (fronts). The te st in NMC shows that mesoscale weather chart analysis is a dependable means for severe convective weather outlook forecasting.
Mesoscale severe weather forecasting ability is limited, in some sense for a lack of valid analysis on mesoscale convective systems and its favorable environments. This paper introduces the mesoscale weather chart analysis techniq ue which was tested in the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Mesoscale weath er chart analyzes the favorable environmental conditions of mesoscale convective systems based on observational data and numerical weather forecast outputs. It includes upperair composite chart and surface chart. In the upperair composite ch art, by analyzing wind, temperature, moisture, temperature change and height change, the diagnostic systems and features in all the lower, middle and upper t roposphere isobaric layers are combined into one plot, which can clearly displa y the available environments and synoptic pattern of severe convective weather. In the surface chart, the analysis contents are pressure, wind, temperature, moi sture, convective weather phenomena and all kinds of boundaries (fronts). The te st in NMC shows that mesoscale weather chart analysis is a dependable means for severe convective weather outlook forecasting.
2010, 36(7):151-159.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.022
Abstract:
The three squall lines happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Huaihe River in June 2009. The conventional and nonconventional data， radar and satellite observations， NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis and NCEP/GFS analysis data are used in the paper, to contrast and explore the genesis conditions and mechanisms for these squall lines. The results show that the three squall lines have similar circulation pattern at 500 hPa, the stronger accumulating unstable energy， the suitable transfer of water vapor in the low level, and thus forming the similar unstable atmospheric stratification. In the above situations the convergence rising occurred in low levels, the dry and cold air intruding in high levels and the stronger wind vertical shear made the cold and warm air writhing upper and down， the unstable energy was released, thus organized squall line systems were formed. The influence of the squall lines can be monitored and forecasted by the satellites and radars.
The three squall lines happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Huaihe River in June 2009. The conventional and nonconventional data， radar and satellite observations， NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis and NCEP/GFS analysis data are used in the paper, to contrast and explore the genesis conditions and mechanisms for these squall lines. The results show that the three squall lines have similar circulation pattern at 500 hPa, the stronger accumulating unstable energy， the suitable transfer of water vapor in the low level, and thus forming the similar unstable atmospheric stratification. In the above situations the convergence rising occurred in low levels, the dry and cold air intruding in high levels and the stronger wind vertical shear made the cold and warm air writhing upper and down， the unstable energy was released, thus organized squall line systems were formed. The influence of the squall lines can be monitored and forecasted by the satellites and radars.
2010, 36(7):160-167.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.023
Abstract:
Using multiple intensified observation data, detailed mesoscale and microscale analyses are undertaken on the severe convective systems in the early hours of September 7, 2008 over Beijing. Results show that, before the thunderstorms develop, Beijing lay in the right rear quadrant of 200 hPa jet streams and also in the southwesterly on the south side of the 850 hPa warm shear. Combined with the accumulation of unstable energy due to the low level warmmoist air advection, appropriate low level lifting mechanism or triggering would raise severe convective systems therein. Those MCSs, which moved eastward into Beijing, developed into severe convective systems again, after encountering the surface convergence line caused by urban heat island effect and the boundary layer disturbance caused by uplift and back roll of the topographic convergence, leading to a torrential rain event in the urban area of Beijing. Moreover, in northern Beijing, new thunderstorms were triggered by the surface convergence line, which was formed by the colliding between the outflow in front of surface high and the mountain breeze.
Using multiple intensified observation data, detailed mesoscale and microscale analyses are undertaken on the severe convective systems in the early hours of September 7, 2008 over Beijing. Results show that, before the thunderstorms develop, Beijing lay in the right rear quadrant of 200 hPa jet streams and also in the southwesterly on the south side of the 850 hPa warm shear. Combined with the accumulation of unstable energy due to the low level warmmoist air advection, appropriate low level lifting mechanism or triggering would raise severe convective systems therein. Those MCSs, which moved eastward into Beijing, developed into severe convective systems again, after encountering the surface convergence line caused by urban heat island effect and the boundary layer disturbance caused by uplift and back roll of the topographic convergence, leading to a torrential rain event in the urban area of Beijing. Moreover, in northern Beijing, new thunderstorms were triggered by the surface convergence line, which was formed by the colliding between the outflow in front of surface high and the mountain breeze.
2010, 36(7):168-173.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.024
Abstract:
Public outreach on natural hazards can increase public awareness of natural disasters, help them to accumulate disasterrelated knowledge, and improve their ability to help themselves as well as others out of devastating situations, thus to minimize damages caused by natural hazards. In order to make the best use of TV in popularizing disaster prevention and mitigation related science, we designed a science outreach column, with the name Disasters Records. This column is based on recorded hazardous images and onthespot shooting of newlyhappened disasters, and it makes the most of digital media technologies. Programs in this column tell stories, show great concern with disasterstricken people, and analyze some interwoven natural, social and cultural reasons behind natural hazards. They put natural changes in a social context, and include interpretations by meteorologists, experts on hazards and sociologists, thus to present a more comprehensive and more profound understanding of the disasters to the public. As for some abstract concepts and theories, animation displaying techniques are used to make them more acceptable. Disaster images, interviews with disasterstricken people, and presenting skills like animation, comments, music, and musical effects are wellbalanced by digital editing techniques, which make the programs vivid and endow them with science popularization values. Under the guidance of the column design, we have finished shooting of more than 200 programs since 2003. They are broadcasted through several kinds of media and their science outreach values are well exerted, as well as pave the way for accumulating experience on public education on natural hazards.
Public outreach on natural hazards can increase public awareness of natural disasters, help them to accumulate disasterrelated knowledge, and improve their ability to help themselves as well as others out of devastating situations, thus to minimize damages caused by natural hazards. In order to make the best use of TV in popularizing disaster prevention and mitigation related science, we designed a science outreach column, with the name Disasters Records. This column is based on recorded hazardous images and onthespot shooting of newlyhappened disasters, and it makes the most of digital media technologies. Programs in this column tell stories, show great concern with disasterstricken people, and analyze some interwoven natural, social and cultural reasons behind natural hazards. They put natural changes in a social context, and include interpretations by meteorologists, experts on hazards and sociologists, thus to present a more comprehensive and more profound understanding of the disasters to the public. As for some abstract concepts and theories, animation displaying techniques are used to make them more acceptable. Disaster images, interviews with disasterstricken people, and presenting skills like animation, comments, music, and musical effects are wellbalanced by digital editing techniques, which make the programs vivid and endow them with science popularization values. Under the guidance of the column design, we have finished shooting of more than 200 programs since 2003. They are broadcasted through several kinds of media and their science outreach values are well exerted, as well as pave the way for accumulating experience on public education on natural hazards.
2010, 36(7):174-179.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.7.025
Abstract:
The following are the main characteristics of the general circulation of atmosphere in April 2010. There are two polar vortex centers in the Northern Hemisphere. The circulation presents four wave patterns in middlehigh latitudes. The intensity of the main deep troughs is weaker than that of troughs in average conditions. The position of south branch trough is close to normal years, but its intensity is weaker. And the subtropical high shows belt figure and much weaker than the same time of normal years. The monthly mean temperature over China (9.1 ℃) is 1.2 ℃ lower than the same time of normal years and the monthly mean precipitation over China (56.1 mm) is 12.3 mm more than the same time of normal years during April 2010. During the month, the drought of arid southwest has relieved because of the repeated precipitation. There are five sanddust weather processes in the month and convective storms invaded some provinces and regions.
The following are the main characteristics of the general circulation of atmosphere in April 2010. There are two polar vortex centers in the Northern Hemisphere. The circulation presents four wave patterns in middlehigh latitudes. The intensity of the main deep troughs is weaker than that of troughs in average conditions. The position of south branch trough is close to normal years, but its intensity is weaker. And the subtropical high shows belt figure and much weaker than the same time of normal years. The monthly mean temperature over China (9.1 ℃) is 1.2 ℃ lower than the same time of normal years and the monthly mean precipitation over China (56.1 mm) is 12.3 mm more than the same time of normal years during April 2010. During the month, the drought of arid southwest has relieved because of the repeated precipitation. There are five sanddust weather processes in the month and convective storms invaded some provinces and regions.
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