ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 36,Issue 1,2010 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts in View of Public Criticism
    DU Jun CHEN Jing
    2010, 36(1):3-6. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.001
    [Abstract](1664) [HTML](163) [PDF 708.81 K](1548)
    An example of public criticism about the accuracy of TV weather forecasting was represented and analyzed. What can meteorologists learn from it to better serve public and endusers on a solid scientific basis? Given the chaotic nature of atmospheric system and imperfect observations and numerical models, it is scientifically impossible to predict the weather in 100% accuracy. How to evaluate weather forecasts is also problematic and confusing in many ways. Reform is needed in both the ways of producing and providing weather forecast information. A forecast without explicitly describing quantitative uncertainty information is incomplete. Inclusion of forecast uncertainty can, instead, maximize the economical value of a forecast and satisfy the needs for a wider range of users. It is time to quantitatively communicate forecast uncertainty to weather, climate, water and any kind of environmental prediction. Training and education to forecasters, endusers and public is the key to the success of this revolutionary transition from a deterministic to a stochastic point of view about weather forecasting. 
    2  Diagnostic Analysis and Mesoscale Numerical Simulation of Extremely Heavy Rainstorm on 2 July 2008 in Middle Yunnan
    YOU Hong XIAO Ziniu WANG Man CAO Zhonghe
    2010, 36(1):7-16. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.002
    [Abstract](1489) [HTML](98) [PDF 4.23 M](1486)
    Using the conventional observed data, the NCEP 1°×1° grid point material, cloudimages and CINRADCC Doppler weather radar data, and the mesoscale numerical model WRF, an extremely heavy rainstorm occurring in the middle of Yunnan Province on 2 July 2008 has been diagnosed and simulated. The result shows that the heavy rain is caused by the dry intrusion from the upper troposphere,cold and warm advection confluence in the low middle layer and abundant vapors from the Bay of Bengal. In this extremely heavy rain process, the most effects of vertical helix are in the middle layer, supreme positive potential vorticity (PV) exists on the tropopause, the subsupreme positive PV is 〖HJ〗under 300 hPa, and between the two layers present columnar distributing characteristics. Meanwhile, the subsupreme positive PV can affect its lower layers. The simulated rain and reflectivity distributions by WRF mesoscale numerical model show that the characteristic of rain belt and generant time in Yunnan Province are well reproduced. The change trend of simulated maximum convective available potential energy (CAPE) can well indicate the rain occurrence. The simulation result is better within 30 hours.
    3  Analysis of Environmental Conditions of Continuous Severe  Convective Weather Events Caused by LongLife Cold Vortex
    YI Xiaoyuan LI Zechun LI Yun ZHU Leilei YU Lili YU Wentao
    2010, 36(1):17-25. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.003
    [Abstract](1777) [HTML](126) [PDF 4.54 M](1429)
    Using the data of satellite images and NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis data , the characteristics on cloud images, track, intensity and the subsisting reaso n for a 9day longlife cold vortex are studied, and the cold air activity, humidity verti cal structure, water vapor condition and the change of thermodynamic, dynamic co nvective instability parameters related to continuous severe convective weather eve nts over the western coast of the Bohai Bay are analyzed. In addition, the key o f forecast and the threshold of severe convective weather events are approached. The mai n results show that, firstly, during 9day period the convective weather even ts appeared at south or southeast of cold vortex and their TBB values were between -40℃ to -72℃ in the severe convective process, and above -40℃ in the weak convective process. Secondly, the reason f or cold vortex subsisting is due to the transport of vorticity advection from two si des of blocking high in eastern Asia. Thirdly, the cold vortex was dynamic during longlif e cycle and the distance from the center of cold vortex to the areas studied was related to the intensity of severe convective activity. The V vector at 70050 0hPa responded sensitively to the change of shallow trough or cold air activity. Fourt hly, humidity layer at low levels becomes thicker as persistence of severe convective events, and the water vapor flux at 975hPa plays an important role in transporti ng water vapor from the Bohai Bay. Fifthly, indices SWEAT and SREH are better pa rameters than others used in the current forecast.
    4  Research of Urban Heat Island in Guangzhou Based on Landsat/TM Data
    DENG Yujiao KUANG Yaoqiu HUANG Feng
    2010, 36(1):26-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.004
    [Abstract](1219) [HTML](173) [PDF 1.29 M](1884)
    Based on the monowindow algorithm of Qin et al. (2001,2003), the land surface temperature of Guangzhou City from Landsat/TM data and meteorological measurement data are retrieved, and the heatislandintensityindex and heatislandareas are calculated. The result shows that from 2000 to 2005, the urban heat island in Guangzhou is definitely increased with regard to the influences of initiative temperature, whole radiance flux and vegetation status. The heatislandintensityindexes on November 1, 2000, November 7, 2002 and November 23, 2005 are 1.15, 1.20 and 2.89, respectively. The heatislandareas on the above three days are 235.44 km2, 261.09 km2 and 381.42 km2, respectively. The main causes for the enhanced urban heat island in Guangzhou are the population increment and the enhanced greenhouse effect.
    5  Application Test of TREC Algorithm to Severe Convective Storm Nowcasting
    ZENG Xiaotuan LIANG Qiaoqian NONG Mengsong FENG Yerong XU Xiangchun CHEN Yeguo
    2010, 36(1):31-40. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.005
    [Abstract](1403) [HTML](169) [PDF 1.51 M](1531)
    Using radar echo extrapolation method of the GRAPESbased Severe Weather integrated Forecasting Tools (GRAPESSWIFT) of the nowcast system, the 0-1 h ahead extrapolation and forecast are made for the radar products such as reflectivity factor,echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content in three cases of severe convective storms, and we try to forecast the severe convection weather early warning area by comparing with the forecast outcome of the radar data to the threshold. The data come from the radar products derived from the CINRADSB radar based data which were processed by PRG algorithm. The method is based on the TREC algorithm to get the moving forecast of radar echoes. The result shows that radar products such as 3 km CAPPI reflectivity factor, echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content are approximately coincident with the actuality, which can forecast the shape, change trend and moving direction of the echo, and the range, location and intensity center of the echo are similar to the actuality. The shorter the time of extrapolation is, the better the forecast is. The extrapolated radar echo from the TREC Algorithm is available within 0-1 h, and the forecast to the convection weather early warning area by the extrapolated result which gets through making up the threshold is also feasible, and they all can be used for the severe convective storm nowcasting.
    6  Application of Surface Automatic Meteorological Station Datato Detecting Rainstorm Processes
    MA Wenyan FENG Xin YANG Furong
    2010, 36(1):41-48. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.006
    [Abstract](1351) [HTML](96) [PDF 1.70 M](1474)
    The distribution of the surface elements of two rainstorm processes is analyzed during 6-7 and 9-10, July 2005 by using the surface automatic meteorological station data and satellite data. It shows that the strong rainfall belt lies near the nonfrontal baroclinic zone and baroclinic troughs. Using the NECP data, the dynamic mechanis of the nonfrontal baroclinic zone and baroclinic troughs causing strong precipitation are revealed by the thermal wind helicity of the second kind and the ageostrophic wet Qvector, it indicates that frontogenesis and baroclinic zone easily occur in the surface nonfrontal baroclinic zone and baroclinic troughs, and then they may induce the strong precipitation.
    7  Study on the Forecasting Method of Drought Intensity over Chifeng, Inner Mongolia in Summer
    CHENG Yuqin ZHANG Shaowen XU Yuqiang
    2010, 36(1):49-53. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.007
    [Abstract](1234) [HTML](131) [PDF 326.74 K](1290)
    The main circulation patterns of the drought can be concluded as follows: the subtropical high weakening and its position northward shifted compared to normal, the midlatitude zonal circulation prevailing and Mongolia cold vortex scanty. Using the Asian circulation index, the northern polar vortex position and climatic characteristics of summer precipitation, based on the data of summer (June to August) precipitation from 1959 to 2000 at 10 meteorological stations in Chifeng, according to local climatic characteristics, the drought intensity was divided into two grades of slight drought and severe drought, and then by the stepwise correcting method, the drought intensity is predicted by use of the above three series of factors. Results verify that the method has the definite ability of forecasting summer drought intensity through the practical utilization from 2001 to 2007.
    8  Storm Series Algorithms in the SWIFT and  Application in the Second FDP Trial
    HU Sheng LUO Bing HUANG Xiaomei LIANG Qiaoqian WO Weifeng
    2010, 36(1):54-58. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.008
    [Abstract](1692) [HTML](316) [PDF 808.67 K](1390)
    The storm series algorithms in the SWIFT (Severe Weather Integrated Forecastin g Tools), including storm cell identification, storm tracking and storm forecast , are discussed. Storm cell identification algorithm tests the intensity and con tinuity of the objective echoes by multipleprescribed thresholds to build 3D storms. It uses multiple reflectivity thresholds, newly designs the techniques of cell nucleus extraction and closespaced storms processing, and therefore is capable of identifying embedded cells in multicellular storms. The strong area components at a long distance are saved as 2D storms. Storm cells identified in two consecutive volume scans are associated temporally to determine the cell tracking. The distance between the centroid of each cell detected in the current volume scan and each of the firstguess location is calculated to check distanc e correlation. Those similar storms with distance correlation are matched. The m otion vector for each storm is computed by using the technique of TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation), and storm locations in the next hour are provided . During the second trial of the FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) in 2007, t hese algorithms have been applied. It is found that 3891 storms are identified a nd the mean absolute errors in the X-axis and Y-axis for 30min storm fore cast are 7.1 and 6.2 km respectively. With the increase of forecast time length, the mean absolute errors of the storm product become larger, and the X-axis error is greater than that in the Y-axis. The statistical analysis also shows t hat the mean forecast velocity in the X-axis is less than the mean actual veloc ity of storms, but the conclusion is contrary in the Y-axis.
    9  Characteristics of Sand and Dust Weather in China  and Cause Analysis in the Spring of 2006
    ZHANG Jinyan LI Yong CAI Xiangning ZOU Xukai QIAO Lin
    2010, 36(1):59-65. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.009
    [Abstract](1376) [HTML](156) [PDF 1.77 M](2600)
    The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of sand and dust weather in China in the spring of 2006 are analyzed on the basis of the data fr om surface synoptic maps (8 times daily) and T213 model products. The results show that the intensity of sand and dust weather is strong in 2006. There are 17 major sand and dust weather processes, among them there are 5 severe sand and d ust storm processes, and the number of severe sand and dust storm processes in the spring of 2006 is the most since 2000. The severe sand and dust storm proces s from 9 to 11, April of 2006 ranks the third in influence area and intensity s ince 1990. The high frequency period tends to be longer and ends later. Further research shows: the temperature is higher and the precipitation is less in most parts of northern China in the spring of 2006, which causes the rapidly thawing of soil and much dry soil, respectively. They are favorable to the formation of sand and dust weather. The East Asia major trough is strong in the spring of 200 6 which causes the cold air to influence China more frequently and the intensity of cold air is strong; at the same time there are more Mongolian cyclones. The cooperation of cold air and Mongolian cyclone is the main reason for the strong sand and dust weather intensity in the spring of 2006.
    10  Model for General Grade Division of Typhoon Disasters and Application
    WANG Xiurong WANG Weiguo MA Qingyun
    2010, 36(1):66-71. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.010
    [Abstract](1356) [HTML](67) [PDF 358.35 K](1804)
    Grade division of each typhoon disaster item in China region is conducted by selecting areas of crop suffered disasters, quantity of house collapsed and damaged, amount of died people, direct economic loss and then establishing the nondimension function transform. And by using the theory of grey association analysis, the general disaster grade division standard is confirmed. Based on the above study, a typhoon g〖HJ〗eneral disaster grade division model is put forward. In terms of this model, the disasters caused by typhoons landing China in 2000-2007 are compared each other, and the analysis results are reasonable.
    11  Evaluation of Wind Resources in Mountainous  Areas of Eastern Jining, Shandong
    MA Jinshan XIAO Hui KONG Lingjun
    2010, 36(1):72-78. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.011
    [Abstract](1208) [HTML](156) [PDF 1.02 M](1292)
    Using data from many surface weather observing stations and regional weather stations, the resources of wind energy are analyzed. The results indicate that different place of weather data has a tremendous influence on the evaluation of wind energy potentials for economic development in the eastern Jining. The conventional surface weather observations tend to underestimate wind energy resources in mountainous areas. However, the data from regional weather stations in mountainous areas especially near the summit (i.e. the site of automatic weather stations) track the mountainous resources of wind energy fairly well. According to data from the latter weather stations, it illustrates that Jining mountainous areas can be used to gather lots of wind energy and in the spring it is abundant in wind energy. And still harnessing the power of wind to make electricity for irrigation can alleviate spring drought in those areas.
    12  Research on Disasters and Temporal and Spatial  Distribution of Squal Lines Around Dafan Nuclear Power Plant in Tongshan, Hubei
    CHEN Zhenghong LIU Lailin YUAN Yechang
    2010, 36(1):79-84. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.012
    [Abstract](1209) [HTML](89) [PDF 614.15 K](1287)
    Dafan Nuclear Power Plant in Tongshan, Hubei is the first one situated at the mainland permitted by the national government in China. In order to abso lutely ensure the safety of that plant, the evaluation of the basic climatic pro perties (including the properties of disasters) and designed parameters of the squall lines is very important in the preceding period. Based on the primary dat a collected from the area of 80 km×80 km around the nuclear power plant in Tong shan, Hubei from 1956 to 2000 through many ways such as the record in meteorolog ical stations, the collection of disaster events, and the report of climate impa ct assessment, the characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions and disa sters of the squall line events are analyzed and compared with that of tornado e vents. It is revealed: (1) There is apparent temporal (daily, monthly, seasonal, d ecadal) distribution for the squall line events that are mainly concentrated in summer and spring especially in July, August and April, from midday to early e vening especially at afternoon, in the 1980s, all these are similar to that of tornado events, but the average lasting time for all squall line events is abou t 95 min that is longer than the average lasting time (17 min) for all tornadoes. (2) There are very apparant local properties for all squall line events, such as Hua ngshi at northeastern part of the plant and Xiushui at southern part of the plan t with the most frequent events, and Tongshan and Chongyang at the central part of the plant with no events at all in the recent 31 years, which are determined by the local position, topography and the moving paths of synoptic systems. (3) The moving direction is mainly concentrated from NNW to SSW, especially from WNW to WSW. (4) Apart from storms when squall line events occur, there are strong li ghtning and heavy rain together that will make the disasters more serious. (5) Co mpared with tornados, there are a little bit smaller wind speeds for squall line events, thus a wind scale of 12 is closed as the designed speed.
    13  Study of Quantitative Evaluation of Snow Disaster Caused Agricultural Loss in Anhui Province in 2008
    YAO Yun MA Xiaoqun XU Ying CHEN Jinhua
    2010, 36(1):85-90. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.013
    [Abstract](1216) [HTML](79) [PDF 743.92 K](1394)
    The characteristics of snow disaster in Anhui Province during January-February of 2008 have been analyzed. The extreme maximum temperature during snow disaster in 2008 was obviously higher than other snow disasters in history. The separate and total models of quantitative evaluation of agricultural loss in Anhui Province have been established, using realtime data of snow condition and disaster situation. The model error has been analyzed and the trial application of the model has also been made. The average relative error of separate model was about 30%, while that of total model was about 20%. The total model was more accurate.
    14  Effects of Climate Change on Bud Opening of Populus Simonii Carr. in Inner Mongolia
    HAN Fang LI Xinhua MIAO Bailing Ulan Bater GUO Ruiqing
    2010, 36(1):91-96. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.014
    [Abstract](1158) [HTML](81) [PDF 1.03 M](1334)
    With the help of statistical analysis, the changing trends between climate data from 1961 to 2006 and bud opening of Populus simonii carr.(1981-2006) were analyzed in the Inner Mongolia. Moreover, the relationships among bud opening and air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation as well as the comprehensive effects of climate factors were discussed. The results showed that there are significant regional differences.The difference of bud opening between the earliest (Luanjingtan) and the latest (Ewenki) region could be 39 days. There is a similar changing pattern in different regions with prolonged trend except Ergun, which shows an advanced trend. There is a significant negative relationship between bud opening and spring temperature. However, there are no obvious relationships between the opening and precipitation and sunlight. The air temperature and precipitation are interactive factors influencing the bud opening in the Inner Mongolia with abundant sunshine duration.
    15  Microclimate Characteristics Under Plastic Sunlight Greenhouse and Relationshi p with Macroclimate in Shijiazhuang Region in Winter
    WEI Ruijiang WANG Chunyi FAN Zenglu
    2010, 36(1):97-103. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.015
    [Abstract](1251) [HTML](101) [PDF 819.11 K](1260)
    Based on the observed data of plastic sunlight greenhouse microclimate and neighbouring weather stations during the two winter periods following as 20 06—2007 and 2008—2009, using the method of related statistical analysis, the characters of plastic sunlight greenhouse microclimate a nd the relationship between the microclimate and outside weather conditions in S hijiazhuang area during the winter are studied. The result indicated that the microclimatic factors have obvious diurnal variations under these weather condions such as sun ny day, slight cloudcloudy day. Persistent sunless days can result in lower t emperature and higher air humidity inside greenhouse, which could be harmful to the normal growth of cucumber. The main factors affecting the microclimate were as follows, sunshine hours, average temperature, lowest temperature, highest tem perature, air humidity, cloudage outside and the yesterday’s highest temperatur e inside. The correlation model of weather factors inside and outside the plasti c sunlight greenhouse has been set up, which has high accuracy verified by histo rical data and application. The model’s accuracies of lowest temperature, highe st temperature, air relative humidity, and largest solar radiation under differe nt weather conditions are within 1.1 ℃, 2.5 ℃, 6% and 58.3 W?m-2. Most of the average relative errors are below 10 percent.
    16  Difference Analysis Between Automatic and Manual  Atmospheric Pressure Measurements
    JU Xiaohui REN Zhihua CAO Lijuan LIU Xiaoning
    2010, 36(1):104-110. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.016
    [Abstract](1204) [HTML](162) [PDF 1.67 M](1653)
    Based on the atmospheric pressure data from 2001 to 2007 during parallel observation, analyses have been made on the differences between automaticobserved and manualobserved atmospheric pressure data, especially the cause of differences is discussed. The results show that most automaticobserved pressure data are less than manualobserved pressure data. And the higher the sea level elevation is, the more evident the differences are. Because of systematic error in manual pressure formula, the manual pressure data before 2004 are larger than that after 2004. There are obvious daily variation and annual variation in pressure differences. In the higher temperature of period or month, the pressure difference is great always. The statistic results show when the temperature is higher than 30 ℃ or below -30 ℃, the differences between manual and automatic pressure measurements are considerably obvious.
    17  Preliminary Analysis on Remote Sensing of Spring  Marine Pollution in Bohai Bay
    WANG Yunxiu WANG Xin LI Yueying ZHENG Yan
    2010, 36(1):111-114. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.017
    [Abstract](1495) [HTML](124) [PDF 832.30 K](1538)
    By using NOAA/AVHRR data of the polar orbit meteorological satellite from 1998 to 2007, the water pollution information was collected from remote sensing image translation, the water color conditions in the Bohai Bay in spring during these ten years reveal the water pollution situation evolution. The results show that the Bohai Bay waters began to display the largescale pollution in 1999, of which the most serious was in 2002, it was improved in 2003 and 2004, but between 2005 and 2006, the pollution area was extended, only in the recent two years the pollution has had a major improvement. However, since 2000 the turbid water color situation of the Yellow River mouth still has not been significantly improved. The major reasons for pollution situation in the Bohai Bay are analyzed in this paper, which would provide the objective basis effectively on reasonably controlling and high effectively treating water pollution for governmental departments concerned.
    18  Application of Time Synchronization Technology to Meteorology
    HE Wanwen XIAO Wenming CHEN Xiaoyu WANG Jia ZHANG Yonghua
    2010, 36(1):115-118. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.018
    [Abstract](1123) [HTML](85) [PDF 959.43 K](1666)
    The time synchronization is demanded in the meteorologic operation. In particular, the accurate simultaneous observation of a variety of meteorological data are very important in the research and applications. With the methods of observation and observation equipment increasing, the demand of the whole network time synchronization is also more urgent. The principle, working models and architecture of time synchronization protocol were introduced, and then the timesynchronization was designed and used in Guangdong meteorological business, and achieved very good results.

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