ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 35,Issue 6,2009 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Development of Forecasting Model of Typhoon Type Rainstorm by Using SMAT
    Li Bo Zhao Sixiong
    2009, 35(6):3-12. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.001
    [Abstract](887) [HTML](83) [PDF 2.53 M](1330)
    Abstract:
    Typhoon is one of the most important disasters in the southeast region along oce an in China, and it can cause strong rainstorm and heavy rainfall. Based on the opinion of stressing typhoon type rainstorm forecast importance, a new forecast technology SMAT (i.e. synthetic multilevel analogous forecast technology) is use d to study typhoon caused rainstorm in the southeast region of Zhejiang Province. Since it is seldom used as analogous elements in pr evious analogous forecast method, the numerical model integral products are used in the third level forecast in SMAT. In SMAT, similarity degree between samples is described by meteorological elements combination, which makes further progre ss than using single element to describe similarity in earlier analogous forecas t. Daytoday sounding data of National Meteorological Center, weather map dat a and surface observation data in study range during 1990-2002 are used, and f o recast model of typhoon rainstorm (SMATTyphoon) is completed. New forecast s ys tem’s research process,study result and key parameters are introduced, which c an demonstrate strong capability of forecast model. CSI (forecast successful ind ex) is a key index in evaluating rainstorm forecast level, and its mean value is 0.35 in the current field. The value will be declined in heavy rainstorm foreca st. Results show that CSI of rainstorm trial is larger than 0.7, and POD (lo st forecast rate) is 0 in exploiting model phase. In the test phase of forecast mod el, CSI can also be larger than 0.45. Moreover, according to COR (forecast p reci se rate, 0.72) and POD (0.26) of SMATTyphoon, they are also better than those from other work. According to effect analysis of trail and revision in establish ed model, it shows that the meteorological elements are very important while ana log range is less important to trail effect in describing analog degree. This can di rect the later similar trail: based on the prime evaluation of various elements , physical elements should be paid much more attention instead of study range. W hen selecting the key range, we should pay more attention to its weather type. M oreover, the main causing rainstorm system should be taken more account wether t he main system is deep or not when selecting analogous elements. In the end, some important physical elements are checked out to instruct operational foreca st. All of these show that SMAT model has strong forecast ability on the averag e.
    2  Design and Implementation of the CINRAD 3D Digital Mosaic System
    Wang Hongyan Liu Liping Xiao Yanjiao Zhuang Wei Wang Gaili
    2009, 35(6):13-18. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.002
    [Abstract](1093) [HTML](133) [PDF 1.07 M](1597)
    Abstract:
    The weather radar 3D mosaic data are useful in many ways. And today, th e CINRAD observational data are able to mainly real time transfer to the regiona l centre. To make full use of the radar observation network, the CINRAD 3D digita l mosaic system is developed based on recent related research results. The syste m focuses on data processing in the background, with simple and convenient con trolling interface. Multithreaded programming techniques improve the efficien cy of data processing, modularized management of multithreads is easy to expand new algorithm modules, and mixedlanguage programming technology shortened the p eriod of applying results of scientific research in operation. The s ystem works efficiently on PC, generating regional threedimensional mosaic reflectivit y and some derived products with high spatial and time resolution
    3  Exploration on Ensemble Model of Numerical Forecasting Based on Variableweight Superensemble Method
    Yan Mingliang Miao Qilong Shen Shuqin
    2009, 35(6):19-25. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.003
    [Abstract](974) [HTML](94) [PDF 1.81 M](1122)
    Abstract:
    The ensemble methods to get a better combined result from l arge quantities of numerical forecast model output products are investigated. S ome variableweig ht decisionmaking models based on superensemble methods are put forward. E vidences suggest that these models are simple, convenient and effective, which c an help forecasters to pick up enough highquality ensemble statistics informat i on from massive numerical products, such as circulation situation, fields of ph ysical elements, precipitation pre diction, cold air prediction, ensemble matrix, map of character. The ensemble m ethods are more perfect and refined, which can dyn amically reflect the abilities of charactering each numerical model. And this h elps to improve the effect and skill of refined numerical weather forecasting for different area and time to some exten t, and provides valuable reference to the operational prediction.
    4  Sensitive Experiments of Surface Observation Data in Numerical Weather Precipitation over Southwestern China
    Zhang Lihong Du Qin Chen Jing Xiao Yuhua
    2009, 35(6):26-35. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.004
    [Abstract](559) [HTML](192) [PDF 1.86 M](1100)
    Abstract:
    Numerical experiments about the surface observation dat a assimilation in southwestern China were carried out by use of the GRAPES 3.0 as similation and prediction system. 0-48 h precipitation forecasts of a whole mont h and a heavy rainfall process that occurred in southwestern China in July, 2005 were analyzed. The main conclusions were as follows: Firstly, the influence of s urface observation data assimilation on precipitation forecast varies with the density of surface observation data used and the assimilating information select ed in this region; Secondly, when numerical forecast model takes higher resolution, the results of rainfall predic tion with all surface observation data, are superior to th ose with spare surface observation data from GTS; Thirdly, in complex terrain of so uthwestern China, assimilating wind information of surface observation data can have obvious influence on forecast results, decreases false precipitation ratio and m akes little contribution to raising missing precipitation and TS in contrast wit h not assimilating; Lastly, the scheme of assimilating relative humidity and geopotential height is the best one among these assimilation schemes.
    5  A Numerical Study of Effects of Mineral Dust Particles  on Cloud and Precipitation in the Northwest China
    Kang Fengqin Yin Yan Zhang Yixuan
    2009, 35(6):36-45. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.005
    [Abstract](807) [HTML](110) [PDF 868.88 K](1240)
    Abstract:
    Previous studies show that the arid and semiarid regions of North China serve as one of the principal sources of tropospheric dusts. The po ssible impacts of the aerosol concentration upon the formation and de velopment of mixed clouds in the condition of different dry atmosphere was discu ssed based on the modeling simulation. The factorial analysis method was used to identify impacts of the major and minor factors. The evidence suggests that (1) increase in sand aerosol s would lead to reducing precipitation, suppressing hail particle genesis, prolonging the existence of clouds and altering their space structure and micro scop ic features; (2) factorial analysis shows that in the arid and semiarid climat e the accumulated rainfall from mixed clouds is more sensitive to the change in th e number concentration of aerosols than to that in atmosphere moisture; (3) the a ugmentation of the number concentration would reduce accumulated precipitation; (4) increase of atmospheric humidity would be responsible for more accumulated ra infall. The presented results can be employed to account for the observational f act of the reduced number of hailfall days during a dry period of North China.
    6  A Preliminary Research on Application of Models-3/CMAQ Model to a Strong Dust in North China
    Wang Yibai Fei Jianfang Huang Xiaogang
    2009, 35(6):46-53. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.006
    [Abstract](881) [HTML](134) [PDF 1.38 M](1337)
    Abstract:
    A strong sandstorm of North China in 2002 was simulated with the Models3/CMAQ system newly developed by US EPA. The pollution source data were based on the AC EAsia and TRACEP Experiments in 2002, and the particulate emission data were estimated by the visibility range from MICAPS observations. The results show th at, (1) the spatiotemporal evolvement and the mutual relationship of gas eous pollutants are consistent with the common regulation derived from observati ons. (2) The simulation of coarse PM also reflects the observational facts: The diurnal trend of both fine and coarse PM first falls and then raises; The PM so urce before SDS is near surface emission while the PM source after SDS becomes upperair’s transportation of dust; Pollution of coarse PM is dominant; (3) This air qual ity model system can be used for further development on dust aerosols.
    7  Multiscale Characteristics Analysis of Liuzhou Server Heavy Rainfall in June, 2007
    Yang Chun Chen Yun Fang Zhifang Li Zechun
    2009, 35(6):54-62. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.007
    [Abstract](1064) [HTML](213) [PDF 3.91 M](1179)
    Abstract:
    Based on multiple meteorological data, including NCEP 1°×1° reanaly sis data, routineobservational data, automatic weather station data, Doppler radar data and FY2C satellite TBB data, the multiscale characteristic of the s erver heavy rain happened in Liuzhou during 12-13 June 2007 was analyzed and its mechanism was also discussed. The results show that: because of the guidance func tion of east plateau low trough on 500hPa, the cold air gone south. The quasis tationary front moved from Guizhou to Guangxi and “the frontl oa better relation to the mesoβscale low vortex disturbance. The precipitati on systems were the convective cloud clusters from south Guangxi and MCC near t he frontal surface. Liuzhou heavy precipitation was created by two rain clusters . Because of the train effect of precipitation echo and ground mesoscale shear line, one of rain clusters had heavy intensity and long persistent time, this wa s a main reason which Liuzhou server heavy rainfall produced.w trough situation” formed at ground surface. The heavy rain developed in the 8 50hPa low trough, the center of heavy rain had
    8  Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Circulation  Features of High Temperatures in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei
    Shi Yinshan Gu Yongli Lin Yan
    2009, 35(6):63-69. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.008
    [Abstract](839) [HTML](180) [PDF 2.11 M](1086)
    Abstract:
    Based on the daily maximum temperature data of 165 stations in Hebe i Province, Beijing, and Tianjin from 1961 to 2007 (142 stations in Hebei, 23 st ations in Beijing, Tianjin), and by using the linear trend analysis, MK sudde n change test, wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, ttest and ot her methods, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of hig h temperatures over BeijingTianjinHebei region during recent 47 years are in vestigated. The interdecadal change and largescale circulation features of h igh temperatures are studied. The results show that: (1) High temperatures genera lly happened in June and July over BeijingTianjinHebei region, and 90 percen t of high temperatures above 37℃ and above 40℃ occurred at this period.(2) High temperatures showed a negative correlation with precipitation at the same time over BeijingTianjinHebei region, more high temperatures in the drought years, less in the wet years. (3) In the years with more or less hig htemperature days, the Northern Hemisphere circulation at 500 hPa had obvious difference. Such differences existed not only in the same period, but also had s ignificant differences in early circulation. The noticeable differences of early circulation provided a basis to predict the emergence of high temperatures.
    9  Impact of a Squall Line in Outer Periphery of Tropical Cyclone on Guangzhou Ba iyun Airport
    Zhong Jiajie Li Ping Liu Feng
    2009, 35(6):70-76. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.009
    [Abstract](1178) [HTML](158) [PDF 5.86 M](1184)
    Abstract:
    Based on NCEP reanalyzed data and Doppler radar products, a squall lin e process in outer periphery of tropical cyclone “KAMMURI” on August 4, 2008 w as analyzed. It showed that the establishment of the lowlevel jet and temperat ure rising caused by sinking and downdraft within subtropical high created the s ufficient water vapor and unstable condition in South China. The squall line weat her burst out under the action of the boundary convergence line which was caused by weak cold air. The appearance of the weak echo channel behind the arc echo s howed that the squall line attacking the airport was in the most powerful stage. Thunderstorm, gust front and downburst were together with the sudden change of the wind direction and the sudden decrease of the ground visibility. Vertical se ction and wind shear radar products were used to analyze the lowlevel wind shear threatening the safety of flights.
    10  Regional Snow Depth Increment Time Series with  Its Variation in the QinghaiTibet Plateau
    Zang Haijia Zhou Zijiang
    2009, 35(6):77-81. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.010
    [Abstract](674) [HTML](126) [PDF 680.42 K](1018)
    Abstract:
    Based on the snow depth observation data from 83 highelevation meteoro logy stations located in the QinghaiTibet Plateau during 1959-2007, the time s eries of regional snow depth increment that shows the snow depth variation with e very snowfall events has been constructed. The results show that (1) comparing w ith the monthly or annual maximum snow depth and the accumulated snow depth seri es, the new series can represent the two others, has excellent features in stati stics, and is the most stable one; and (2) the regional snow depth increment is keeping a negative phase during 1960-1966, a positive side during 1967-1998 and a negative phase again since 1999, and there is a significant jump point in the snow depth increment series that appears in 1998.
    11  Study on Predicting the Summer Precipitation in Northern  Xinjiang with Previous Circulation Index
    Mao Weiyi
    2009, 35(6):82-89. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.011
    [Abstract](544) [HTML](85) [PDF 868.10 K](1032)
    Abstract:
    Based on the summer (from June to August) precipitation data from 29 m eteorological stations distributed over Northern Xinjiang, the precipitation ind ex is calculated. Adopting assemble regression method constructed by two stepwis e regressions, including the initial factors constructed by slidingcorrelation method on account of the correlation coefficient stability, it is attempted to p redict the summer precipitation index along with the factors of the previous mon thly atmospheric circulation indexes. While the sample number is 47, the correla tion coefficient between the original data and the simulated data is as high as 0.7248. There are 10 prediction models to be set up with different sample size r espectively, and the independent test is analyzed. The summer precipitation is t o be lower in 2008, of which the index is 106.9. The results show that the stati stical predict model based on the integration of sliding correlation, stepwise r egression and assemble prediction has a certain prediction ability. The analys is method synthesizing regression and time series could be applied widely to sho rtterm climatic prediction operation.
    12  Statistical Analysis of the Weather System Types  Causing Strong Winds and Fishery Boat Windage Loss  Accidents in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in Winter
    Yin Jinyong Liu Tao Zhang Zenghai Zhao Wei
    2009, 35(6):90-95. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.012
    [Abstract](617) [HTML](105) [PDF 529.04 K](999)
    Abstract:
    The weather system which caused strong winds in Bohai Sea and Yellow S ea from 1987 to 2006 was analyzed by using the NCEP reanalysis data of 500hPa he ight and sea surface pressure distribution, the in situ ground observations in th e costal areas, oil platforms in the sea, islands and ship reports. Also the sta tistical data of fishery boat windage loss accidents from Analysis Report of Chi na Fishery Vessel Safety (1999-2005) were used. The conclusions are in the following. (1) In winter the number of cold air from the northwest direct ion was in the majority and accounted for 50.4 percent of total amount. (2) Among the weather system which caused strong winds in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, the nu mber of small trough developing type was 112, which was 50.0 percent of total number. And the number of the turning type from zonal to meridional direction was 61, which was 27.2 percent of total amoun t. (3) The frequency of cold air outbreak process in winter dropped in the last 20 years. (4) The number of windage loss accidents occupied 51.85% of the total n umber of fishery boat loss accidents. And the sudden strong winds in winter were the main causes that led to wooden fishery boat windage loss.
    13  Interpretation and Utilization of Numerical Prediction Products in Heavy Rainfall Prediction of the Three Gorges Dam Area in Early Summer
    Song Chunyuan Xiong Chuanhui Luo Jianqing Rao Chuanxin Yan Juling Li Fang
    2009, 35(6):96-99. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.013
    [Abstract](890) [HTML](200) [PDF 330.10 K](1261)
    Abstract:
    The good relativity prediction factors are found from the data which include Jap an’s numerical prediction products (FSFE02、FSFE03) of May and June during 1992 to 2001, Yichang singlesounding station, the atmospheric energy and the Three Go rges Dam Area precipitation. The mathematical statistics method based on Fisher discriminate analysis is applied. Heavy precipitation model of the Three Gorge s Dam Area in early summer (May to June) is established to interpretate and util ize the Japan’s numerical prediction products. Through the forecast test during 2002-2007, the forecasting model accuracy and generalization rate are 77% and 89 % respectively, the test result is satisfactory. The forecasting model has a cer tain practicability.
    14  Development Experiences of Some Foreign Weather  Channels and Development Path of China Weather TV
    Shi Yongyi Li Rubin Zhang Kairong
    2009, 35(6):100-108. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.014
    [Abstract](591) [HTML](106) [PDF 1.13 M](1249)
    Abstract:
    Launched in May 2006, China Weather TV has a short history of less tha n 3 years, while in some developed countries like the United States, weather c hannels have developed for more than 20 years. Some characteristics of its development are analyzed and summarized: intensive a nd brand development path, a udiencecentered program design, localized weather information provided to broa dcast channels as an important pillar of their programs, relying on the basic nat ional meteorological data and forecasts and developing their own early warning a lert service products, attaching great importance to the research, development a nd application of new technologies, etc. Also, it combines the above analysis wi th our contemporary situation and brings up 5 suggestions on the developme nt of China Weather TV.
    15  Systematic Information Resource Integration in Beijing 2008 Olympic Weather Service
    Wang Yubin Zhou Yong Liang Feng Su Debin Yu Dongchang Zhou Haiguang
    2009, 35(6):109-117. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.6.015
    [Abstract](633) [HTML](78) [PDF 1.83 M](1053)
    Abstract:
    With the successful weather service in Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, composite we ather observation integration and public weather service integration are discussed. Th e necessity, destination and difficulty of a systematic integrati on of various Olympic weather service information resources were analyzed, relat ive techniques and measurements and its successful application are also discusse d. This work can be served as a prototype in the organization and service for fu ture similar operational work.

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