ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 35,Issue 11,2009 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast  Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
    You Fengchun Wei Dong Wang Yu
    2009, 35(11):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.001
    [Abstract](1284) [HTML](68) [PDF 472.19 K](1281)
    Abstract:
    The GRAPES_MESO15km, MM5 and BJRUC (rapid assimilation forecast update cycle s ystem of Beijing) were used in the meteorological services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The prediction qualities of 24h quantitative precipitation fore cast products of these models were examined in detail. Firstly, some statistics were calculated, such as the correlation coefficient, TS, FAR, RMSE etc. Then, b y use of the multiple regression method, the integration test to the precipitatio n forecast products of multiple models was taken. The results show that GRAPES_M ESO15km model has a good forecasting performance in the aspect of forecasts for light rain and raining or not, while RUC has a good forecasting capability to the moderate and greater rain. The verification results have a good reference value for the futu re refinement precipitation forecast in Beijing.
    2  Analysis of a Severe Convective Storm Event in Beijing  Using the Thermodynamical Retrieval Method of Radar Data
    Fan Liqiang Wang Yingchun Chen Mingxuan
    2009, 35(11):9-16. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.002
    [Abstract](1294) [HTML](79) [PDF 18.33 M](2620)
    Abstract:
    A preliminary diagnosis on a severe convective storm (with hea vy rainfall, hail and strong wind) attacking Beijing urban zone on 1 August 2006 , by using the radar data retrieval method of lowlevel wind, temperature and r elative humidity based on the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) is s hown in this study with the results as follows. (1) The convective storm initiat ed in Hebei Province adjacent to the northwest mountainous area of Beijing, then it was organized and strengthened quickly while it moved into Beijing area under the condition of local thermodynamical forcing, and finally developed into a squall line. (2) A strong easterly flow persist ed at low levels in Beijing urban zone and southeast of great Beijing before the squall line initiated. The flow extended northwestward quickly and collided with across mountain northwesterly winds to trigger a boundary layer convergence line. The latter was the primary triggering factor of the squall line initiation. The inten sification, weakening and northsouth movement of the easterly flow at low levels had a distinct effect on initiation, enhancement and dissipation of the squall lin e, as well as persistence of the convergence line. (3) New storm cells initiated continually under the effect of the convergence line. (4) The intense convective storm went with a strong gust front.
    3  Distribution and Diurnal Variations of the MCS over  SichuanChongqing Area and YangtzeHuaihe River Basin During the Summer of 2007
    Qi Xiuxiang Zheng Yongguang
    2009, 35(11):17-28. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.003
    [Abstract](1159) [HTML](82) [PDF 3.81 M](1074)
    Abstract:
    The extremely heavy rainfall, persistent rainfall and severe convective weather events occurred frequently over SichuanChongqing Area and YangtzeHuaihe Riv er Basin during the summer of 2007. Based on the FY2C TBB (equivalent temperat ure of black body) dataset during 28 June-26 July 2007, the 570 MCSs (mesoscale convective systems) with life-cycle greater than 3 hours were investigated over the former two areas and adjacent areas (25°~38°N,100°~130°E). There were four activeMCS areas: the area from the western Sichuan Province to nort hwestern Yunnan Province, the eastern Sichuan Province and Chongqing City, the e astern YunnanGuizhou Plateau and the area from northern Guangxi Zhuang Autonom ous Region to Dongting Lake and the YangtzeHuaihe River Basin(YHRB), and the re were three minor activeMCS areas over the YHRB activeMCS area. The modal duration of the total MCSs and those over SichuanChongqing Area were approxima tely 3~5 hours, but the modal duration of the MCSs over YangtzeHuaihe River B a sin was about 5~8 hours. The MCSs were classified as three types by the time sc a le of MCS: the first type of MCS has a life cycle of 3~5 hours, the life cycle of the second MCS type is 6~11 hours and the life cycle of the third MCS type ≥12 hours. The trigger mechanisms of the three MCS types were different: the fi r st and second MCS type could occur inside and outside the mean location of the W est Pacific subtropical high, and their occurrence, development and movement wer e obviously influenced by the mesoscale weather systems and may be related to th e factors such as topography and mesoscale convergence lines; the third MCS type occurred outside the mean location of the West Pacific subtropical high, and it s occurrence, development and movement were obviously influenced by the larges cale synoptic systems. The diurnal variations of the three MCS types were also o bviously different. The peaks of the three MCS types all occurred in the afterno on. However, the first MCS type had no obviously nocturnal occurrence, but the s econd and third MCS type had a nocturnal occurrence characteristic. The most act ive peak of the first and second MCS type was both in the afternoon, but the mos t active peak of the third MCS type was after midnight (about 18UTC). Both the M CSs over SichuanChongqing Area and YangtzeHuaihe River Basin had multiple ac tive periods in a whole day, but the active periods of the MCSs over two areas w ere different. Finally, two typical MCSs causing heavy rainfall and one longdu ration MCS were presented.
    4  Comparative Analyses of Two Cold Wave Processes in December 2008
    Chen Yuying Chen Nan Shao Jian Nie Jingxin Ma Jinren
    2009, 35(11):29-38. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.004
    [Abstract](2004) [HTML](152) [PDF 3.32 M](1666)
    Abstract:
    Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products,two typical severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20-21, December 2008 have been analy ze d, utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from t h e cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia.The results showed that, based on the warming strongly before the twice cold wave,strong cold air was accumulated in West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward; the circulation pattern s showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia, dynamic  mechanisms were an upper rotating lowpressure trough and strong front zo ne, and the stream fields leading to outbreak of cold wave were the low trough rotating patt ern during twice cold wave; after the outbreak of cold air, strong cold advection controlled Ningxia and co ld high pressure entered into the key areas and reached cold wave intensity. How ever because of the differences of circulation background, the weather impact sy stem as well as the intensity, development and moving path of cold air currents, the cooling range and the impact on Ningxia of the two cold wave processes were different. The main forecast factors of winter cold wave in Ningxia were put f orward based on the above analyses. Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products,two typical severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20-21, December 2008 have been analy ze d, utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from t h e cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia.The results showed that, based on the warming strongly before the twice cold wave,strong cold air was accumulated in West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward; the circulation pattern s showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia, dynamic  mechanisms were an upper rotating lowpressure trough and
    5  Diagnostic Analysis of a Convection Torrential Rain in South of Cold Front
    Yin Jie Wu Jing Cao Xiaogang Chen Yunhui
    2009, 35(11):39-47. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.005
    [Abstract](1273) [HTML](110) [PDF 5.14 M](1320)
    Abstract:
    Based on the routine data, NCEP data, satellite images, radar data, and the dens ified observations, a dynamical diagnosis of the convect ion torrential rain in south of cold front on 28 May 2008 in the northern part o f Jingxi Province is ma de. The results show that (1) the convection torrential rain south of cold front was due to the several main reasons, such as, all nearly vertical troughs at various levels, precipitous front surfaces, forwardedtilting trou gh structure, extremely strong lower warm and wet air flows ahead of the cold front, greatly increased unstabl e energy of the convection formed by warm, wet below and dry, cold above convect ions, and the lowlevel southwest jet stream strengthening when the cold front moving closely and cyclone wave moving east. All of these factors resulted in t he unstable energy release from the convection. (2) This torrential rain showed the characteristics on obvious meso and small scales that had four mesoβ scale convection systems moving to the east along the ground cold front. The gr ound mesoscale cy clone, the mesoscale convergence line, the strong echo area, the head wind zon e, and the 850hPa mesoscale convergence line, all demonstrated the presence of the mesoscale perturbation. Furthermore, mesoscale perturbation was well corre lated to the convective rain cluster.
    6  A Comparison and Analysis of the Results of Three Methods for the Calculation of Water Vapor Resources 
    Xiang Yuchun Chen Zhenghong Xu Guirong Chen Bo Cheng Yaping
    2009, 35(11):48-54. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.006
    [Abstract](1592) [HTML](938) [PDF 474.90 K](2158)
    Abstract:
    Taking Hubei Province for example, based on the surface meteorological da ta, GPS/Met data and radiosonde data, the water vapor resources are calculated. Fu rthermore, the deviation of the first two kinds of methods from the third is evaluated by setti ng the radiosonde result as standards. The results show that as f ollows.(1)The values of water vapor resources based on the surface data are slig htly smaller than that on the radiosonde data, and the annual average values at Enshi,Yichang and Wuhan Stations are about 4.7%,2.9% and 5.4% less than those b y radiosonde data,respectively.But their monthly change trends are coheren t.(2)At Yichang Station the deviation value of the result based on GPS data is a little higher than that on surface data in the same period, and the water vapor content is 5.6% more than that on radiosonde data but the result on the surface data is 3.5% less than that on radiosonde data.(3)About the effective vapor wat e r in precipitation days,the deviation values of the first two methods are respec tively only -1.4% and 8.4%.Therefore the precision of the method based on surfac e data and GPS data are higher and they can make up for the lack of radiosonde stations due to the adequate surface stations.In the mass, the precision of the method based on GPS is slightly less than that on surface data and this inadequ acy can be amended.
    7  Analyses of Water Vapor Condition for Persistent Snowfall over the Southern Xinjiang Basin in Early 2008
    Zhang Junlan Liu Yongda Yang Liu Luo Ji
    2009, 35(11):55-63. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.007
    [Abstract](1096) [HTML](85) [PDF 3.50 M](1181)
    Abstract:
    Using the daily NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data (2.5°×2.5°lat/lon) in 2008 and dai ly rainfall data of 29 meteorological stations from January to February between 1970 and 2008 in the southern Xinjiang Basin, the variation of atmospheric circ ulation circumstances, water vapor source, water vapor transfer and the effect o f low level jet were analyzed. The results showed that the distribution of the precipitable water field was different from the vector field of water vapor flux . In the water vapor transfer, the contribution of Beihai was the most, w ith water vapor transfer in middle and lower layers by west and east routes, res pectively. Both water vapor transfers of the west route and east route were changed into th at of southwest airflows in the westside of the Tibetan Plateau, with vapor tran sfer in 700 hPa obviously more than 500 hPa, thus the low level jet plays an imp o rtant role in the long distance transportation of water vapor to the southern X injiang Basin.
    8  Climate Characteristics of Thunderstorm and  Its Change in Qinghai Plateau
    Hu Ling Guo Weidong Wang Zhenyu Wang Qingchun
    2009, 35(11):64-70. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.008
    [Abstract](1741) [HTML](83) [PDF 1.70 M](1925)
    Abstract:
    Using the thunderstorm data of 41 meteorological stations in the Qinghai Plate au during 1961-2007, and the statistical methods of trend coefficient, the rate of tendency, absolute rate of change and sliding ttest, the temporal and spat ial d istribution characteristics, the trend of climate change and oscillation cycle o f the thunderstorm are analyzed. The results have shown that: ① The total trend of t hunderstorm has been decreasing in the Qinghai Plateau in the recent 47 years, b ut there exist the differences in some areas. When the thunderstorm in some area s o ccurs frequently, the decrease trend is more obvious there. However, it is not o bvious in the Qaidam Basin with the least thunderstorm activity, even a slight increase. ② The begin ning day of thunderstorm is delayed sig nificantly, the last day of thunderstorm is significantly ahead of normal condit ion, thus the period of annual thunderstorm is shortened. ③ The thunderstorm oc curs earliest in southern Qinghai Plateau, and ends latest, while it occurs late st in the Qaidam Basin and ends earliest. ④ The d ays of annual thunderstorm show an abrupt change in 2000, it has a quasiperiod i c oscillation of 5 years, lightning and rainstorm disasters have been increasing after the mid1980s.
    9  Climatic Characteristics of Gale Events in Northern and  Southern Coastal Zones of the Qiongzhou Strait
    Xin Jiwu Weng Xiaofang Xu Xiangchun Xing Xuhuang Feng Wen
    2009, 35(11):71-77. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.009
    [Abstract](1312) [HTML](145) [PDF 1008.14 K](1364)
    Abstract:
    The climatic statistical characteristics of gale events in northern and southern coastal zones of the Qiongzhou Strait were described using data for stations Xu we n, Haikou, Qiongshan and Lingao from 1977 to 2006. Poten tial mechanisms for the development of gale events were examined. The data were a nalyzed in term of two criteria for a gale event based on sustained winds or a wind gust. During the last 30 years, annual high wind days show different trends in northern and southern coast zones of the Qiongzhou Strait. In the nort hern coast, the re exist obvious periods of 14 years and 2-4 years in the variation of tho se annual high wind days, which is in accordancewith the periods of tropical cyclone’s frequencies influencing Hainan Island. I n the southern coast, annual high wi nd days show a significantly linear decrease trend, the climatic abrupt decrea se periods are in the middle and late 1990s. The accelerated urbanization of cit y and the weakened strength of cold air are the main reason accounting for the decreas e of gale events. There exists a pronounced northeast quadrant directional preferen ce for high winds in the northern coast of the strait, while southerly direc tional preference in southern coast. On the average, high wind events in southern coast are stronger than that in northern one. Contrary to the common climatic char acteristics of gale events in most other parts of China, gale events are most freque nt in summer and rare in winter.
    10  Trend Analysis of Acid Rain Pollution in BeijingTianjin Area
    Xu Mei Zhu Qinglin Wang Lina Zhu Yuqiang
    2009, 35(11):78-83. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.010
    [Abstract](1205) [HTML](124) [PDF 810.84 K](1259)
    Abstract:
    The spatial and seasonal variation characteristics are discussed by using the data at three monitoring stations from 1993 to 2006 in Beijing and Tianjin. The MannKendall trend test was applied to examine the trend of ac id rain in recent 14 years.The results show that three stations have some resem bling characteristics, such as high level of pH value in autumn and winter,lo w lev el of pH value in spring and summer. However, the changing trend of three stati ons is very different. The acid rain frequency at Tianjin Station is serious at the beginning of the 1990s, but the state of acid rain has improved obviously recently. On the other hand, the value of MK method in Changping Station is -3.17,[JP2] indicating t hat the state of acid rain has deteriorated obviously[JP] during the last 14 years. As the suburb of Beijing, Shangdianzi Station was improved before 2002, but afterwards the state of acid rain has become increa singly serious.
    11  The Cloud Physical Characteristics of Extreme Freeze Catastrophic  Weather in Hunan Province and the Possibility of Suppression
    Fan Zhichao Gao Jilin
    2009, 35(11):84-92. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.011
    [Abstract](1292) [HTML](86) [PDF 4.06 M](1263)
    Abstract:
    The unprecedented disasters of low temperature, persistent rain, snow and ice st orms occurring in early 2008 in South China have exerted a significant social im pact, which causes great losses in Hunan and other provinces. The weather reason was analyzed by using conventional meteorological data, the atmospheric strati fication of freezing rain weather in Hunan was analyzed by using the L band radi osonde data and ground meteorological data at Changsha Radiosonde Station, and t he microphysical processes were simulated by using weather modification model. T h e analysis indicated that the freezing rain weather would form when the frontal inversion having a thicker melting layer (or higher temperature)and a thinner cooling layer(or not too lower temperature)constitutes a freezing rain strati fication.Mixing cloud precipitation is the main precipitation mechanism of the freezing rain, the threelayer model and the freezing rain st ratification could explain the entire mechanism and process of the freezing rai n formation completely and comprehensively. Further exploring the possibility of freezing rain suppression was carried out based on the ice crystal effect and explosion effect.
    12  Quality Control for Reactive Gases Observation at Longfengshan  Regional Atmospheric Background Monitoring Station
    Lin Weili Xu Xiaobin Yu Dajiang Dai Xin Zhang Zhonghua Meng Zhaoyang Wang Ying
    2009, 35(11):93-100. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.012
    [Abstract](1207) [HTML](60) [PDF 980.91 K](1313)
    Abstract:
    The implementation of operational monitoring atmospheric reactive gase s is one of the important goals of atmospheric composition observations sponsore d by the China Meteorological Administration. Quality control to meet the requir ements of reactive gas monitoring at regional atmospheric background stations ar e studied based on the twoyear practical experience at Longfengshan Station. Historical zero/span checks and multipoint calibrations are analyzed and the guide of their operating frequencies including zero/span a djustment is provided. The process of data correction based on the quality contr o l information, standard traceability process and instrument equipment testing, i nspection, and maintenance are also provided. The experience and problem related to the quality of monitoring in the operation are summarized. The necessity and measures for quality control during routine operation and data correction are d iscussed. Suggestions, especially the needs to strengthen the capability of the information analysis provided by quality control for people on duty, are given f or further improvement of the quality of observation.
    13  Evaluation Method and Software of Lightning Nowcasting and Warning Products
    Ma Ying Meng Qing Lv Weitao Yao Wen Zhang Wenjuan
    2009, 35(11):101-106. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.013
    [Abstract](997) [HTML](67) [PDF 7.19 M](1309)
    Abstract:
    In order to make an objective assessment of the effect of the Lightning N owc asting and Warning System (which is developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorol ogic al Sciences, CAMS_LNWS), the evaluation method of CAMS_LNWS products has been studied and a software has been developed by the Laboratory of Lightn ing Physics and Protect ion Engineering. Three indicators, POD (Probability of Detection), FAR (False Al arm Rate) and TS (Threat Score) are used in the evaluation method. They not only can assess the forecast effect of CAMS_LNWS products, but also can guide the im p roving of lightning nowcasting and warning methods partially. Owing to the reasonable design, comprehensive functions, easytouse interface an d rich products, the assessment software can meet the needs for evalution of ligh tning operational products.
    14  Recent Progress on the Observation Study of Wind Erosion in China
    Wang Cunzhong Niu Shengjie Zhou Yue
    2009, 35(11):107-116. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.014
    [Abstract](955) [HTML](99) [PDF 688.97 K](1311)
    Abstract:
    Winderoded dust is an essential issue in studying dust aerosol and dust weathe r. From several aspects, such as the mechanism of winderoded dust, configurati on of particle motion, condition for dust emission, and dust flux, the major res ults of the researches on winderoded dust in China have been reviewed and the difficult points and issues have been discussed. Different methods for calculating the threshold of critical friction velocity and comparing the c ritical friction velocity of the observation are described from different resear chers in different locations. Finally, three suggestions have been presented on how to improve the precision of research results based on observations and the c omparability of different research results. First, to establish a more detailed geography, topography and soil information system. Second, to ma ke use of the advantages of satellite observations, and to set up the groundba sed observing systems for the comparison and calibration of satellite remote sen sing results. The third is to standardize the observation methods and processes t o fully utilize the operational observational data to improve the comparability of observation.
    15  Analysis of the Boundary of the Fog Field  in the Early November,2008
    Wang Wei Huang Yufang Sun Jianling
    2009, 35(11):117-122. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.015
    [Abstract](1118) [HTML](94) [PDF 4.57 M](1183)
    Abstract:
    Based on the data from conventional observations and NCEP reanalysis, a synoptic analysis was carried out for the boundary of a rare large fog process occurring in the early November, 2008. The result shows that, at the boundary of the fog field, besides such basic conditions as temperature inversion, air humidity an d wind speed,the divergence field and vertical wind speed are related to the fog formation, and the boundaries of lowlevel convergence and highlevel diverge nce are also related to the fog boundary.
    16  On Meteorological Emergency Communication Technology: The Case of Wenchuan Earthquake
    Ma Yuyong Fang Guoqiang Liu Yiqian Lv Shuang
    2009, 35(11):123-130. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.016
    [Abstract](1262) [HTML](310) [PDF 949.94 K](1183)
    Abstract:
    The severe damage to meteorological communi cation network system and problems arising from the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sic huan Province are described. It also introduced the responses of me teorological information service to th e relief demand on meteorological communication system. By analyzing the emergen cy communication system and related applications from the technological perspect ive, it proposed more solutions based on the current applications in order to establish an improved emergency communication system which can be integrated into daily applications.
    17  Research on the Interpolation Algorithm for  Meteorological Precipitation Choroplethic Map
    Zhang Hongjie Ma Qingyun Wu Huanping Luo Bing Tang Wei
    2009, 35(11):131-136. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.017
    [Abstract](2011) [HTML](561) [PDF 1.09 M](5146)
    Abstract:
    After comparing various interpolation methods and analysis of the prac tical requirements in meteorological services, an interpolation method is propos ed to meet the requirements of both more accurate and higher quality visualizat ion of meteorological elements choroplethic map. The method is based on the basic C ress man algorithm, and optimized by some key issues. The applications demonstrate th at it w orks well in the meteorological service system, and improves the acuracy and obj ectivity of precipitation choroplethic map.
    18  Retrieving Atmospheric Temperature Profiles Using  Artificial Neural Network Approach
    Zhang Xuehui Guan Li Wang Zhenhui Han Jing
    2009, 35(11):137-142. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.018
    [Abstract](1157) [HTML](164) [PDF 1.59 M](1321)
    Abstract:
    Highspectralresolution Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data can be used to retrieve the small scale vertical structure of air temperature, which provid ed a more accurate and fine initial field for the numerical forecasting and the largescale weather analysis. In the previous studies, eigenvector regression algorithm in the IMAPP (International MODIS/AIRS Preprocessing Package) was ofte n used to process the data. Because of its simplicity, the inversion precision w as limited. Applying an artificial neural network to retrieve the clear sky atm ospheric temperature profiles from AIRS simulation radiation data and comparing with the eigenvector regression algorithm, the results indicate that the neural network consumed a same time as the eigenvector regression algorithm, but it red uced the atmospheric inversion error and made improvements in temperature measur ements at various levels. 
    19  The Synoptic Verification of MediumRange Forecast from T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Models During the Summer of 2009
    Kang Zhiming
    2009, 35(11):143-149. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.11.019
    [Abstract](1011) [HTML](106) [PDF 1.22 M](1397)
    Abstract:
    To better use the products of numeric model, the synoptic verificati on of mediumrange forecast from model T639 in the summer of 2009 is made in c om parison with ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the models have good p erformances in predicting the largescale circulation evolution and adjustment in the Asian middle and high latitude areas, but they all show a positive error in the westerly index forecast. Model T639 has certain ability in predicting the s ubtropi calhigh and the temperature of 850hPa. Compared with the EC and JP models, mod el T639 has a larger error and shows some systematic errors for the temperature forecast . For typhoon Morakot, model T639 performs well in its genesis forecast, but wors e in the typhoon track and landfall forecast. 

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