ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 34,Issue 9,2008 Table of Contents
2008, 34(9):3-9.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.001
Abstract:
Until the end of June 2008, China has successfully launched 4 FY1 polar orbit meteorological satellites, 1 FY3 polar orbit meteorological satellite and 4 FY 2 geostationary meteorological satellites. Now satellite FY1D, FY2C and D are put in operational use, and FY3A is in its testing period. Chinese Meteoro logical Satellites have primarily realized operation and series, firstly practic ed the goal presented by the Committee of Defense Science & Technology Industry, which is the changing of meteorological satellite from testing [KG*2]type to se rvice type. At the same time, China has become the nation that has both polar and geostationary meteorol ogical satellites series after Russia and US. WMO has put FY1, FY2 and FY3 meteorological satellites into global application meteorological satellite seri es, so chinese meteorological satellites became important number of Global earth observation system. Chinese meteorological satellites played a significant ro le in national defense construction and disaster prevention and mitigation and a lso made significant contribution to economic development of regional and many n ations in the world. The developing course of Chinese Meteorological Satellite a nd ground application system is reviewed. Also the achievement of meteorological satellite application is briefly summarized, and the developing trend and new t arget of Chinese meteorological satellite in the future is prospected.
Until the end of June 2008, China has successfully launched 4 FY1 polar orbit meteorological satellites, 1 FY3 polar orbit meteorological satellite and 4 FY 2 geostationary meteorological satellites. Now satellite FY1D, FY2C and D are put in operational use, and FY3A is in its testing period. Chinese Meteoro logical Satellites have primarily realized operation and series, firstly practic ed the goal presented by the Committee of Defense Science & Technology Industry, which is the changing of meteorological satellite from testing [KG*2]type to se rvice type. At the same time, China has become the nation that has both polar and geostationary meteorol ogical satellites series after Russia and US. WMO has put FY1, FY2 and FY3 meteorological satellites into global application meteorological satellite seri es, so chinese meteorological satellites became important number of Global earth observation system. Chinese meteorological satellites played a significant ro le in national defense construction and disaster prevention and mitigation and a lso made significant contribution to economic development of regional and many n ations in the world. The developing course of Chinese Meteorological Satellite a nd ground application system is reviewed. Also the achievement of meteorological satellite application is briefly summarized, and the developing trend and new t arget of Chinese meteorological satellite in the future is prospected.
2008, 34(9):10-21.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.002
Abstract:
“75.8" heavy rain is a disaster, which caused a large loss to the soci ety. Many meteorologists have done a lot of research works of this event, and pa id much attention to the predictability.“75.8"heavy rain in Henan Province was particularly chosen for the study of the mesoscale ensemble forecast. Two experiments were implemented. The first one especially focused on the relati ons between cumulus convective parameterizations and the heavy rain. For this pu rpose, the KainFristch ETA scheme was chosen. The interaction between the trig g er function and the mass flux calculations in large scale environment was taken into consideration. Some empirical factors have been perturbed in a reasonable r ange to construct the ensemble members to describe the uncertainty of model. The results indicate that different factors in cumulus convective parameterization have different impacts on the precipitation. The location of the rainfall is les s influenced by different factors, but the intensity of the heavy rain is improv ed, the precipitation forecasted by ensemble mean increased by 30%. Meanwhile, d ifferent factors would have different impacts on the time when the convection ha ppens, the rainy duration as well as the development of convection. The second e xperiment adopted different resolution of model and multiparameterization to f o rm ensemble members. The results prove that the ensemble mean would improve the intensity forecast to some extent. Compared with the results coming from model w ith high resolution, the precipitation forecasted by ensemble increases by 20%-3 0%. Ensemble forecast would decrease the uncertainties from the model itself. Th e differences among various cumulus convective parameterizations, empirical fact ors and model resolutions indeed have a certain impacts on the simulated results of model.
“75.8" heavy rain is a disaster, which caused a large loss to the soci ety. Many meteorologists have done a lot of research works of this event, and pa id much attention to the predictability.“75.8"heavy rain in Henan Province was particularly chosen for the study of the mesoscale ensemble forecast. Two experiments were implemented. The first one especially focused on the relati ons between cumulus convective parameterizations and the heavy rain. For this pu rpose, the KainFristch ETA scheme was chosen. The interaction between the trig g er function and the mass flux calculations in large scale environment was taken into consideration. Some empirical factors have been perturbed in a reasonable r ange to construct the ensemble members to describe the uncertainty of model. The results indicate that different factors in cumulus convective parameterization have different impacts on the precipitation. The location of the rainfall is les s influenced by different factors, but the intensity of the heavy rain is improv ed, the precipitation forecasted by ensemble mean increased by 30%. Meanwhile, d ifferent factors would have different impacts on the time when the convection ha ppens, the rainy duration as well as the development of convection. The second e xperiment adopted different resolution of model and multiparameterization to f o rm ensemble members. The results prove that the ensemble mean would improve the intensity forecast to some extent. Compared with the results coming from model w ith high resolution, the precipitation forecasted by ensemble increases by 20%-3 0%. Ensemble forecast would decrease the uncertainties from the model itself. Th e differences among various cumulus convective parameterizations, empirical fact ors and model resolutions indeed have a certain impacts on the simulated results of model.
2008, 34(9):22-27.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.003
Abstract:
The weather radar 3D mosaic products developed by State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences has put into th e operational trail in Beijing, Hebei and Guangdong province. Compared with one single radar products, the 3D mosaic products have wider coverage in time and sp ace, and they also have provided a powerful platform for application of weather radar products. But in the processing of radar 3D mosaic, the difference of inte nsity and positioning in different radar will greatly influence the effect of 3D mosaic. This article takes Beijing, Tianjin, Zhangbei, Shijiazhuang radar as a n example respectively, analyzes the intensity and localization uniformity among different ra dars. The result indicated that there is greatly consistency of detection positi on in four radars. Compared with Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Tianjin radars, the i ntensity has deep attenuation in Zhangbei radar. The analysis provided a good su pport for the further enhancement in the accuracy and uniformity of 3D mosaic.
The weather radar 3D mosaic products developed by State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences has put into th e operational trail in Beijing, Hebei and Guangdong province. Compared with one single radar products, the 3D mosaic products have wider coverage in time and sp ace, and they also have provided a powerful platform for application of weather radar products. But in the processing of radar 3D mosaic, the difference of inte nsity and positioning in different radar will greatly influence the effect of 3D mosaic. This article takes Beijing, Tianjin, Zhangbei, Shijiazhuang radar as a n example respectively, analyzes the intensity and localization uniformity among different ra dars. The result indicated that there is greatly consistency of detection positi on in four radars. Compared with Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Tianjin radars, the i ntensity has deep attenuation in Zhangbei radar. The analysis provided a good su pport for the further enhancement in the accuracy and uniformity of 3D mosaic.
2008, 34(9):28-33.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.004
Abstract:
VCP11 or VCP21 model lowest switched on 0.5° elevation angle is being applied i n mountaintop radar scanning ways in China now. Contrast analyses are made bet ween the two models and new generation radar of Kunming switched on 0° elevatio n angle through practical detection of a heavy rainstorm case. The preliminary result shows that some mountaintop radars can discover precipitating process e arlier on 0° elevation angle than on 0.5° elevation angle. Remotedetection ef fect of precipitation by mountaintop radar is obviously strengthened on 0° ele vation angle and negative elevation angle. The insufficient of detection ability of mountaintop radar for lowlevel radar echo in routine scan way can be reme died by being switched on negative elevation angle. By using the data obtained f rom other 4 mountaintop radars of Yunnan in experiment, quality comparative ana lysis of lowlevel echo detection is made between the clearday data o btained from mountaintop radar and data of mountaintop radar switched on low e levation angle and negative elevation angle. The results shows that the best low elevation detection angle of mountaintop radar is different owing to the influ ence of surrounding mountains. The suitable low elevation angle in practical wor k should be selected according to related topography.
VCP11 or VCP21 model lowest switched on 0.5° elevation angle is being applied i n mountaintop radar scanning ways in China now. Contrast analyses are made bet ween the two models and new generation radar of Kunming switched on 0° elevatio n angle through practical detection of a heavy rainstorm case. The preliminary result shows that some mountaintop radars can discover precipitating process e arlier on 0° elevation angle than on 0.5° elevation angle. Remotedetection ef fect of precipitation by mountaintop radar is obviously strengthened on 0° ele vation angle and negative elevation angle. The insufficient of detection ability of mountaintop radar for lowlevel radar echo in routine scan way can be reme died by being switched on negative elevation angle. By using the data obtained f rom other 4 mountaintop radars of Yunnan in experiment, quality comparative ana lysis of lowlevel echo detection is made between the clearday data o btained from mountaintop radar and data of mountaintop radar switched on low e levation angle and negative elevation angle. The results shows that the best low elevation detection angle of mountaintop radar is different owing to the influ ence of surrounding mountains. The suitable low elevation angle in practical wor k should be selected according to related topography.
2008, 34(9):34-39.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.005
Abstract:
The rainfallrunoff model TOPMODEL (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) is use d to simulate the hourly runoffs for Wenquan catchment (984km2) in Kaixian, Ch ongqing Municipality. The performance of TOPMODEL in the study area is addressed based on the rain gauge observations and 08:00 BST runoff data. It mani fests that the TOPMODEL performed well in the study catchment, and the Nash and Sucliffe efficiency criterion is 0.872 when calculated with 08:00 BST runoff dat a. Since the method is simple and the data are easily obtained, th is presentation is one of the foundational studies for the developments in the u se of rain gauge observations and radar rainfall estimates for flash flood analy sis and forecast.
The rainfallrunoff model TOPMODEL (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) is use d to simulate the hourly runoffs for Wenquan catchment (984km2) in Kaixian, Ch ongqing Municipality. The performance of TOPMODEL in the study area is addressed based on the rain gauge observations and 08:00 BST runoff data. It mani fests that the TOPMODEL performed well in the study catchment, and the Nash and Sucliffe efficiency criterion is 0.872 when calculated with 08:00 BST runoff dat a. Since the method is simple and the data are easily obtained, th is presentation is one of the foundational studies for the developments in the u se of rain gauge observations and radar rainfall estimates for flash flood analy sis and forecast.
2008, 34(9):40-46.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.006
Abstract:
An analysis on the heavy rain in central and southern Shaanxi fr om 8 to 9 A ugust 2007 is performed with the routineobservational data provided by MICAPS, surface data of intensive observation, FY2C satellite TBB. The results indicat e that the mesoscale shear line on 500hPa and the low vortex on 700hPa are its ma inly influencing systems, and it is directly caused by MCC. The spatial and temp oral variations of moist potential vorticity can give good indication for the de v elopment of heavy rain. Superimposition of the positive and negative moist poten tial vorticity is advantageous to the development of the rainstorm. The heavy ra in is located near the zero line of positive potential vorticity and in tensive belt of negative MPV1 on 700hPa. The strong convergence in the east side of low vortex on 700hPa and strong divergence in the right side of high altitud e jet stream at 200hPa supply strong and continuous ascending movement.
An analysis on the heavy rain in central and southern Shaanxi fr om 8 to 9 A ugust 2007 is performed with the routineobservational data provided by MICAPS, surface data of intensive observation, FY2C satellite TBB. The results indicat e that the mesoscale shear line on 500hPa and the low vortex on 700hPa are its ma inly influencing systems, and it is directly caused by MCC. The spatial and temp oral variations of moist potential vorticity can give good indication for the de v elopment of heavy rain. Superimposition of the positive and negative moist poten tial vorticity is advantageous to the development of the rainstorm. The heavy ra in is located near the zero line of positive potential vorticity and in tensive belt of negative MPV1 on 700hPa. The strong convergence in the east side of low vortex on 700hPa and strong divergence in the right side of high altitud e jet stream at 200hPa supply strong and continuous ascending movement.
2008, 34(9):47-56.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.007
Abstract:
A local heavy rainstorm in northeast and southern Hebei on July 18, 20 07 is analyzed by using conventional observation data, hourly data of automated weather station, TBB data and NCEP 6 hour reanalysis data. Conclusions are dra w n that although in the same synoptic system, the rainstorm formation mechanism i s different in different regions. It is revealed that the upperlevel and low le vel jet streams as well as the interaction between the positive feedback of the jets and rainstorm are the main reasons causing the northeast rainstorm in the m orning. The vapor is transported by lowlevel jet stream. There are roundli ke mesoα convective cloud clusters with TBB less than -70℃ in the image of th e FY-2C. The severe event in southern Hebei in the afternoon occurred under the f av orable conditions of the hightemperature, highenergy and unstable stratifica tion when instable energy was triggered and released by the co ld front and the lowpressure before the front. In the corresponding images there are quasitrans me ridian convective cloud clusters with minimum TBB less than -80℃. The streams a nd surface humidstatic energy calculated from automatic weather stations data h ave significant indication to prediction of this sort of summer strong convectio n weather.
A local heavy rainstorm in northeast and southern Hebei on July 18, 20 07 is analyzed by using conventional observation data, hourly data of automated weather station, TBB data and NCEP 6 hour reanalysis data. Conclusions are dra w n that although in the same synoptic system, the rainstorm formation mechanism i s different in different regions. It is revealed that the upperlevel and low le vel jet streams as well as the interaction between the positive feedback of the jets and rainstorm are the main reasons causing the northeast rainstorm in the m orning. The vapor is transported by lowlevel jet stream. There are roundli ke mesoα convective cloud clusters with TBB less than -70℃ in the image of th e FY-2C. The severe event in southern Hebei in the afternoon occurred under the f av orable conditions of the hightemperature, highenergy and unstable stratifica tion when instable energy was triggered and released by the co ld front and the lowpressure before the front. In the corresponding images there are quasitrans me ridian convective cloud clusters with minimum TBB less than -80℃. The streams a nd surface humidstatic energy calculated from automatic weather stations data h ave significant indication to prediction of this sort of summer strong convectio n weather.
2008, 34(9):57-64.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.008
Abstract:
For studying the evolution rules of the sea-land breeze, a statistical analysis of appearance and disappearance and evolution rules of PBL convergence line ass ociated with the sealand breeze along Bohai Gulf is done by using Tianjin wea ther radar CINRADSA and automatic meteorological station data. The corresponde nces between PBL convergence line and sealand breeze along Bohai Gulf are rese arched. The results show that: (1) The PBL convergence line forming along coastline is actually sealand breeze convergence line. (2) Sealand bre eze convergence line can be only monitored by radar from May to September each yea r, mainly in June to September. (3) On clear days, when a strong sealand breez e convergence line passes the radar or blows to the northwest of the radar, lan d breeze turns to sea breeze. (4) The stronger the intensity of sealand breeze convergence line and the higher sealand breeze convergence line stretches vert ically, the larger the speed of corresponding sea breeze.
For studying the evolution rules of the sea-land breeze, a statistical analysis of appearance and disappearance and evolution rules of PBL convergence line ass ociated with the sealand breeze along Bohai Gulf is done by using Tianjin wea ther radar CINRADSA and automatic meteorological station data. The corresponde nces between PBL convergence line and sealand breeze along Bohai Gulf are rese arched. The results show that: (1) The PBL convergence line forming along coastline is actually sealand breeze convergence line. (2) Sealand bre eze convergence line can be only monitored by radar from May to September each yea r, mainly in June to September. (3) On clear days, when a strong sealand breez e convergence line passes the radar or blows to the northwest of the radar, lan d breeze turns to sea breeze. (4) The stronger the intensity of sealand breeze convergence line and the higher sealand breeze convergence line stretches vert ically, the larger the speed of corresponding sea breeze.
2008, 34(9):65-72.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.009
Abstract:
MM5 model is used to simulate the process of snowstorm in Henan Province from Ja nuary 18th to 19th in 2006. High spacetime resolution data from mo del output are imposed to analyze vapor，temperature，instability，wind and othe r conditions of this process．Results show that the convergence of middlelow l ayer vapor is absolutely necessary condition．It is most favorable for snowstorm that upper boundary of inversion layer over Henan Province corresponds to sout hwest jet flow and lower boundary corresponds to northeast jet flow．The stead y maintaining of highlow jet flow generated two separate secondary circumfluence and the n orth of indirect circumfluence formd convergence ascending air at the exit of up perlevel jet flow．This situation quite favor the generation and development of precipitation．Total helicity changes have th e significant indication to changes of snow intensity．Moist potential vorticity was analyzed to find that MPV2 is more important than MPV1 in this event, where as in the case of rainstorm, MPV1 plays a dominant role．
MM5 model is used to simulate the process of snowstorm in Henan Province from Ja nuary 18th to 19th in 2006. High spacetime resolution data from mo del output are imposed to analyze vapor，temperature，instability，wind and othe r conditions of this process．Results show that the convergence of middlelow l ayer vapor is absolutely necessary condition．It is most favorable for snowstorm that upper boundary of inversion layer over Henan Province corresponds to sout hwest jet flow and lower boundary corresponds to northeast jet flow．The stead y maintaining of highlow jet flow generated two separate secondary circumfluence and the n orth of indirect circumfluence formd convergence ascending air at the exit of up perlevel jet flow．This situation quite favor the generation and development of precipitation．Total helicity changes have th e significant indication to changes of snow intensity．Moist potential vorticity was analyzed to find that MPV2 is more important than MPV1 in this event, where as in the case of rainstorm, MPV1 plays a dominant role．
2008, 34(9):73-80.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.010
Abstract:
Using the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature data from 550 statio ns for the period 1960-2000, the heat wave days index (HWDI) and the warm night index (Tn90) are calculated and their temporal and spatial variation are analyze d. The first two modes are able to represent the spatial distribution characteri stics. The spatial distribution of first eigenvector of the two indexes is gener ally similar, with the same increase and decrease trend. Their interannual and interdecadal variability in temporal characteristic is remarkable. The change s of heat index and warm night index can be divided into 11 and 10 districts by using REOF and CAST Clustering Analysis Method, which can overcome the subjectivity of the boun dary of the load values by REOF and the uncertainty of climate center by CAST an d make the division more objective.
Using the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature data from 550 statio ns for the period 1960-2000, the heat wave days index (HWDI) and the warm night index (Tn90) are calculated and their temporal and spatial variation are analyze d. The first two modes are able to represent the spatial distribution characteri stics. The spatial distribution of first eigenvector of the two indexes is gener ally similar, with the same increase and decrease trend. Their interannual and interdecadal variability in temporal characteristic is remarkable. The change s of heat index and warm night index can be divided into 11 and 10 districts by using REOF and CAST Clustering Analysis Method, which can overcome the subjectivity of the boun dary of the load values by REOF and the uncertainty of climate center by CAST an d make the division more objective.
2008, 34(9):81-88.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.011
Abstract:
With the data set obtained at 31 meteorological stations in 2005, spat ial distribution and seasonality of precipitation acidity over Chongqing area we re analyzed. Meanwhile, based on the statistics of longterm data set of 5 acid rain monitoring stations among the above meteorological stations (Shapingba, Fuling, Wanxian, Fengjie and Badong), the spatio-tempor al distribution and seasonal ity of acid rain in recent 10 years (from 1997 to 2006) were discussed. The resu lts indicate a large discrepancy of acidity and conductivity of precipitation ov er Chongqing area. The seasonality of precipitation acidity is obvious in Chongq ing area as a whole. pH value of precipitation in spring and summer higher than in autumn and winter. The acidity of precipitation in the southwest part of Chon gqing is stronger than other parts, and the conductivity also higher. However, t here was no significant trend in the acidity and conductivity of precipitation d uring last 10 years in the southwest part. The precipitation acidity aggravated and conductivity increased significantly in northeast part of Chongqing in recen t 10 years, although pH value and conductivity data sets showed the precipitatio n in this part less polluted. The seasonality of acidity and conductivity of pre cipitation in the northeast part of Chongqing is more pronounced. The trend of t he precipitation acidity in the northeast part of Chongqing is mainly caused by the decrease of pH value in summer and autumn. The pH value and conductivity of precipitation at Fuling are much higher than the surrounding areas, suggesting t he importance of local influences.
With the data set obtained at 31 meteorological stations in 2005, spat ial distribution and seasonality of precipitation acidity over Chongqing area we re analyzed. Meanwhile, based on the statistics of longterm data set of 5 acid rain monitoring stations among the above meteorological stations (Shapingba, Fuling, Wanxian, Fengjie and Badong), the spatio-tempor al distribution and seasonal ity of acid rain in recent 10 years (from 1997 to 2006) were discussed. The resu lts indicate a large discrepancy of acidity and conductivity of precipitation ov er Chongqing area. The seasonality of precipitation acidity is obvious in Chongq ing area as a whole. pH value of precipitation in spring and summer higher than in autumn and winter. The acidity of precipitation in the southwest part of Chon gqing is stronger than other parts, and the conductivity also higher. However, t here was no significant trend in the acidity and conductivity of precipitation d uring last 10 years in the southwest part. The precipitation acidity aggravated and conductivity increased significantly in northeast part of Chongqing in recen t 10 years, although pH value and conductivity data sets showed the precipitatio n in this part less polluted. The seasonality of acidity and conductivity of pre cipitation in the northeast part of Chongqing is more pronounced. The trend of t he precipitation acidity in the northeast part of Chongqing is mainly caused by the decrease of pH value in summer and autumn. The pH value and conductivity of precipitation at Fuling are much higher than the surrounding areas, suggesting t he importance of local influences.
2008, 34(9):89-96.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.009.012
Abstract:
In order to realize the situation of the surface humid in Jiangsu province，a dr ywet index，including the impact of both surface air temperature and precipit ation on the potential evaporation，is established by using monthly mean tempera ture and monthly precipitation data of 60 meteorological stations in Jiangsu pro vince from 1961-2005. The index is defined as Hi=P/Pe (P is the monthly total of precipitation，Pe is the potential evaporation from air temperature). Analysis of the index by MannKendall method，the interannual variation，decadal vari ation and the seasonal differences of the surface humid index，precipitation and temperature over Jiangsu province are analyzed．The warming impact on th e surface dryness/wetness state is studied．The geographical distribution and tr end of surface humid index are given in the areas．The results indicate that the inter-annual variation of surface humid index over northern Jiangsu is contrary to that of the south region of Jiangsu．There exists a relationship between the drying trend and the warming impact in north and middle part of Jiangsu provinc e. The obvious wetting trend doesn't occur in the regions where the precipitatio n increases in some part of south Jiangsu．Also，the results show that the dryi ng trend of Jiangsu province generally occurred in spring and autumn．
In order to realize the situation of the surface humid in Jiangsu province，a dr ywet index，including the impact of both surface air temperature and precipit ation on the potential evaporation，is established by using monthly mean tempera ture and monthly precipitation data of 60 meteorological stations in Jiangsu pro vince from 1961-2005. The index is defined as Hi=P/Pe (P is the monthly total of precipitation，Pe is the potential evaporation from air temperature). Analysis of the index by MannKendall method，the interannual variation，decadal vari ation and the seasonal differences of the surface humid index，precipitation and temperature over Jiangsu province are analyzed．The warming impact on th e surface dryness/wetness state is studied．The geographical distribution and tr end of surface humid index are given in the areas．The results indicate that the inter-annual variation of surface humid index over northern Jiangsu is contrary to that of the south region of Jiangsu．There exists a relationship between the drying trend and the warming impact in north and middle part of Jiangsu provinc e. The obvious wetting trend doesn't occur in the regions where the precipitatio n increases in some part of south Jiangsu．Also，the results show that the dryi ng trend of Jiangsu province generally occurred in spring and autumn．
2008, 34(9):97-103.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.013
Abstract:
It is important to evaluate the meteorological influences to industries in the m eteorological economic filed. Cointegration theory was used to research the im pact of temperature variation on the main industries in Nanjing. First, it was p roved that there was a cointegration relationship between temperature and indu stries′ production value. Then, on the basis of cointegration regression equation and error correction mode (ECM), the longterm and shortt erm impacts of temperature variation were investigated quantitatively. At last, the result of Granger test emphasized our outcomes. It shows that the temperatur e variation really could affect the main industries′ economic s: when temperature rose, the industries′ production values would increase in the longterm, but some industries would decline in the shortterm. So, coi ntegration theory is a reasonable way to evaluate industries′ meteorological se nsitivities.
It is important to evaluate the meteorological influences to industries in the m eteorological economic filed. Cointegration theory was used to research the im pact of temperature variation on the main industries in Nanjing. First, it was p roved that there was a cointegration relationship between temperature and indu stries′ production value. Then, on the basis of cointegration regression equation and error correction mode (ECM), the longterm and shortt erm impacts of temperature variation were investigated quantitatively. At last, the result of Granger test emphasized our outcomes. It shows that the temperatur e variation really could affect the main industries′ economic s: when temperature rose, the industries′ production values would increase in the longterm, but some industries would decline in the shortterm. So, coi ntegration theory is a reasonable way to evaluate industries′ meteorological se nsitivities.
2008, 34(9):104-111.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.09.014
Abstract:
By using the 44a (1961-2004) monthly precipitation data at 61 meteorological sta tions in Shanxi Province and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the unusual characterist ics of general circulation in drought and flood years of Shanxi are investigated . The results show that in the year of drought (flood), a positive (negative)n egative (positive)positive (negative) distribution of the 500hPa geopotentia l height anomaly is presented in the mid high latitudes over Europe and Asia i n spring and summer. In the area of mid high latitudes, a zonal circulation ( meridional circulation) is displayed primarily, and evidently weaker (stronger) activity of the cold air is also displayed. At the same time a distinctly nor therly (southerly) wind anomaly is presented in the wind field of 850hPa over ea stern area of China.
By using the 44a (1961-2004) monthly precipitation data at 61 meteorological sta tions in Shanxi Province and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the unusual characterist ics of general circulation in drought and flood years of Shanxi are investigated . The results show that in the year of drought (flood), a positive (negative)n egative (positive)positive (negative) distribution of the 500hPa geopotentia l height anomaly is presented in the mid high latitudes over Europe and Asia i n spring and summer. In the area of mid high latitudes, a zonal circulation ( meridional circulation) is displayed primarily, and evidently weaker (stronger) activity of the cold air is also displayed. At the same time a distinctly nor therly (southerly) wind anomaly is presented in the wind field of 850hPa over ea stern area of China.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P