ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 34,Issue 5,2008 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Book Comment and Introduction to 《Weather Analysis  and Forecasting,Applying Satellite Water Vapor  Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis》
    Xu Jianmin Fang Zongyi
    2008, 34(5):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.001
    [Abstract](657) [HTML](69) [PDF 375.37 K](1050)
    Abstract:
    Chinese translation of the book 《Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis》 writte n by Santurette and Georgiev is introduced. Santurette and Georgiev bring satellite water vapor imagery and numerical model products together in a logical way. The close relationship between satellite water vapor imagery and potentia l vorticity fields shown by their book helps not only on the interpretation of satellit e imagery, but also on the potential improvement of numerical model performance . This introduction paper analyzed the structure of the book and is favorable fo r Chinese forecasters to understand the book.
    2  Risk Degree Methods on Meteorological Risk  Resources of Xi'an General Public
    Luo Hui Li Liangxu Zhang Yanyu Liu Lu Li Shehong Li Cailian
    2008, 34(5):9-13. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.002
    [Abstract](727) [HTML](191) [PDF 470.19 K](886)
    Abstract:
    By taking the information of high impact weather events of Xi'an city from 2004 January to 2007 October as background, the Fuzzy Mathematics and Polyn omial Fit methods are applied to quantitatively analyze meteorological attention degrees on potential meteorological risks resources and responding people numbe rs of general public. Five potential meteorological risk resources closely relat ed to local general public, i.e. heat wave,thunderstorm,heavy shower,moderate shower and scattered precipitation, and dialing numbers of weather service phon e (named 12121) and other weather information as well are chosen to calculate th e exceedingprobabilities of meteorological risk resources. Then, the three att ention degrees, i.e. ordinary, moderate and high degree, and people numbers are c alculated through 4th degree polynomial fit. It's useful for quantitative judgme nt of policy decisionmaker and general public response to these meteorological risks.
    3  The Applications of Stochastic Decisionmaking to Meteorological Service
    Xiong Yajun Hu Haibo Wang Yingchun Guo Hu
    2008, 34(5):14-19. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.003
    [Abstract](476) [HTML](60) [PDF 538.90 K](728)
    Abstract:
    The applications of stochastic decisionmaking to meteorological service are in troduced primarily in two cases.The first case study shows that the meaning of s tochastic decisionmaking is uncertain when the probability of high impact weat her event is uncertain. In this case, the optimistic, pessimistic, or minimum re pentant value (MRV) decisionmaking can be chosen respectively according to the risk preferences of service. The second case shows that it is a certain meaning of stochastic decisionmaking when the probability of high impact weather even t is known. In this case, the best scheme could be setup up by the maximal expec tation value (ME) to provide meteorological service. Sensitivity analysis of sto chastic decisionmaking could be transformed as a mathematic question about calculating the critical probability and figured out d irectly by using graphical method.
    4  A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Typhoon Disaster
    Ma Qingyun Li Jiaying Wang Xiurong Wang Weiguo Gao Lanying
    2008, 34(5):20-25. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.004
    [Abstract](691) [HTML](98) [PDF 436.74 K](1052)
    Abstract:
    The disaster impact is tentatively evaluated for typhoons making landfall in Chi na. Ten factors are chosen as disaster impact factors, and weighted values of th ese impact factors are calculated by using weighted average programming method. T hen, the evaluation coefficient of typhoon impact and the corresponding disaster grade can be obtained by applying the fuzzy synthetic method. Evaluation tests have been carried out for landed typhoons during the years from 2000 to 2006. Th e results show that the model evaluation grade keeps in close agreement with the actual disaste r grade. The percentage of accuracy can reach 89%, 87%, 73%, and 78% , respectiv ely, for four disaster grades as especial great, great, heavy, and general, and about 90% for all samples. The results indicate that this model can evaluate ty phoon disaster well for typhoons making landfall in China. 
    5  Nonlinear Response of Daily Electricity Indexes to Air Temperature in Wuhan
    Li Lan Chen Zhenghong Hong Guoping
    2008, 34(5):26-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.005
    [Abstract](565) [HTML](125) [PDF 488.63 K](797)
    Abstract:
    In order to establish the relationship between the electricity indexes and air temperature, the influence of air temperature on electricity indexes is analyzed and the nonlinear statistic model is established by using the data of daily demand for electricity, daily maximum load, daily minimum load and the corresponding air temperature data. Compared with the linear model, the nonlinear model can better show the relationship between the electricity indexes and the air temperature. The daily maximum load, the daily demand for electricity and the daily minimum load are most in sensitive to the critical average air temperatures 15~16℃,14~15℃ and 13~14℃ respectively. When the air temperature is higher and lower than the critical temperature, the electricity indexes nonlinearly increase, and the larger the deviation to the critical temperature, the quicker the increase in the electrical load.
    6  The Impact of Composite Meteorological Factors on the Electrical Load in Guangxi
    Zhong Lihua Li Yong Ye Dianxiu Zhang Qiang Kuang Xueyuan Zhang Yuping
    2008, 34(5):31-37. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.006
    [Abstract](988) [HTML](150) [PDF 538.53 K](843)
    Abstract:
    The meteorological index-effective temperature (ET) is introduced to evaluate th e impact of various meteorological factors on electrical load in Guangxi on the basis that the latter is heavily influenced by the former. Analysis on the effe ct of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and ET on the electrical lo ad from April to October indicates that there is significantly a positive correl ation between the air temperature and electrical load, which implies that the ai r temperature is the main factor responsible for the variation of electrical loa d. Furthermore, in summer, the composite effect of the composite of air temperat ure and wind speed as well as that of air temperature and relative humidity on t he electrical load change is far larger than the composite of the relative humid ity and wind speed.The electrical load is linearly increased with the air temperature or the ET for June to September; whereas, the load is not fully incr eased with the ascending of temperature in the transition season of spring, summ er and autumn, in the stage of the temperature is not too high, the load has a d ownward trend with the increasing of relative humidity. However, when the temper ature is beyond a certain temperature, the load is increased with the ascending of air temperature and effective temperature.
    7  Analysis of Risks of Rice Yield Loss Caused by Natural Disasters and Meteorological Factors Affecting Rice Production in Panjin, Liaoning
    Jiang Hewen Li Chun Cao Shimin Yang Wenyan
    2008, 34(5):38-43. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.007
    [Abstract](447) [HTML](116) [PDF 415.97 K](758)
    Abstract:
    Moving average is applied to simulate the rice yield (kg·hm-2) of Panjin region, Liaoning in the past three decades (1977-2006). On this basis, the meteo rological yield in this period is estimated. A disaster year is defined as one w ith a rice yield reduction rate higher than 5%. Then the risks of rice yield los s in Panjin caused by natural disasters are comprehensively analyzed from aspect s of the yield reduction probability, the coefficient of variation, and etc. The correlation between rice yield and meteorological factors is also analyzed to f ind out the key factors and disasters that affect rice yield. Results show that the fluctuation of rice yield in Panjin decreases with the advancement in agricu ltural production. Panshan county has a higher risk of rice yield loss than the average level of the whole city. Heat condition is the main reason for fluctution of rice yield in Panjin, because data analysis shows significant correlatio n betwee n the yield of rice and the accumulated temperature of days with mean temperatur e ≥10℃ from May to October, the monthly mean temperature of May and June, and the mean maximum temperature of September. The major agricultural meteorological disaster in May, June and September in Panjin is low temperature. This is in go od agreement with the actual observation.
    8  A Comparative Study of Detection Precision and Capacity between  Phased Array Weather Radar and Doppler Weather Radar
    Yang Jinhong Gao Yuchun Cheng Minghu
    2008, 34(5):44-51. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.008
    [Abstract](1453) [HTML](119) [PDF 3.81 M](861)
    Abstract:
    Application of phased array technology to detecting atmosphere is a new subject. By using the data of phased array weather radar and Doppler weather radar, both obtained from a severe tornado and a squall line on 30 May and 2 June 2004 respectively, the radial detection precision, tangential detection precision, scanning time, sensitivity, and reflectivity, r adial velocity, the life time of supercell were compared to investigate their detecting abilit y and detecting precision. Results show that detection precision of phased array radar will change with the changes of scanning direction angle because of the c hanges of phase scanning antenna beam width. Detection precision of Doppler weat her radar will have a little change at the whole scanning coverage. Tangential r esolution of phased array radar is lower than that of Doppler radar. In order to improve its resolution and reduce the scanning time, an effective scanning meth od of phased array radar is provided, which uses a transmitted wider beam in pit ch and narrower in azimuth, and multi received beams to overlap transmitted beam . This scanning method can largely reduce scanning time, improve reflectivity si gnatures and detect the evolution of severe storm in detail. A simple dealiasing velocity ambiguity method can also eliminate the ambiguity of velocity from be am multiplexing scanning.
    9  Analysis of Lidar Measurements from a Dust Event
    Guo Benjun Liu Li Huang Danping Wang Lingling Li Xueli
    2008, 34(5):52-57. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.009
    [Abstract](581) [HTML](83) [PDF 6.57 M](800)
    Abstract:
    A typical dust event that passed over Dalian (121.63°E、38.90°N) on Apr. 28, 2 005 has been observed by a micropulse Lidar (MPL) in the framework of ChinaK orea Dust Monitoring Program. It is found that the dust layer located in 0~5km above the ground level is more than 5km in geometrical depth. Some typical ext inction coefficients of atmospheric aerosol distribution were obtained by analys is of Lidar measurements from this dust event. Vertical distribution and develop ing characteristic of aerosol extinction coefficient were analyzed and discussed in this sanddust process. This study shows that this dust air mass was transp orted to Dalian at long distance. The stable atmospheric stratification plays an important role in the diffuse and fallout of aerosol.
    10  Analysis on Continuous Rainfall in Early Summer of Shaanxi Province Through Evolution of Anticyclone
    He Hao Liu Yu Huang Baoxia
    2008, 34(5):58-63. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.010
    [Abstract](489) [HTML](76) [PDF 3.93 M](742)
    Abstract:
    As a major weather case, few continuous rainfall process happens in early summer (in June) in history of Shaanxi Province. The probability of continuous rainfa ll occurrences is much higher in the region of Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi Pr ovince about every three or four years than that is in the region of Shanbei Lo ess Plateau. In June, 2007, an abnormal continuous rainfall process occurred in the whole region of Shaanxi Province, which lasted for seven days. Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this continuous rainfall process was studied. The res ult showed that this was a process of occurrence, maintaining and disappearance of anticyclone circulation. In this process, Shaanxi Province was at the bottom of this anticyclone, and the east (southeast) wind provided favorable moisture f or the continuous rainfall maintaining. Vertical ascending motion happened throughout the whole process. The main synoptic systems were steady Mongolian trough and QinghaiTibet Plateau trough which caused the continuous rainfall.The south wind in the front of QinghaiTibet Plateau trough and north wind in the front of Mongolian trough converged on the Hetao Area, wh ich located in the north of 35°N.That was the main reason for the occurrence of the continuous rainfall in Shanbei drought region. Before the process of this c ontinuous rainfall, the establishment of “double blocking high" in East Asian w as the strong signal for the rainy period of Shaanxi Province.
    11  Research on Tropical Cyclone Fine Nowcasting System Based on Doppler Radar
    Zhao Fang Ji Chunxiao Ren Hongxiang Yang Jun Zhu Jing
    2008, 34(5):64-74. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.011
    [Abstract](924) [HTML](81) [PDF 13.21 M](1255)
    Abstract:
    Typhoon and local rainstorm are the primary meteorological disaster in summer fl ood season in Zhejiang. The principal method is based on the primary radar infor mation in the threedimensional variation assimilation for typhoon nowcasting t echnique and research. Automatic echo identification, echotracking and precipi tation estimation are developed by researching the radar information of last yea rs and modulating the parameter for local. The crosscorrelation technique and centroid method are used for strong convection echo identification and tracking. The moving direction tendency of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters and th e realtime data of autoprecipitation station are considered. The dynamic pre cipitation is evaluated by applying the bestprobabilitywindows to get the mo st suited ZI relationship. Through the retrieved variation correction, the rainstorm nowcasting within 1 hour is made by use of linear extrapolation. Cons idering the requirement of typhoon shorttime forecast service, the system cont ains the rapid diagnostic analysis for typhoon center and mesoscale circulation pattern based on GBVTD (Groundbase Velocity Track Display method). As a workin g platform,the system can be used for disaster weather forecasting and service.
    12  The Agricultural Drought Composite Monitoring Technique and Its  Operational Application in Anhui Province
    Ma Xiaoqun Liu Huimin Wu Wenyu
    2008, 34(5):75-81. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.012
    [Abstract](487) [HTML](138) [PDF 2.21 M](687)
    Abstract:
    Aiming at the operation and service demands of agricult ural drought in Anhui province, indices and methods of agricultural drought comp osite monitoring were studied by using agricultural drought indices that were ap plied for operation. These indices are soil moisture, accumulated humidity index , vegetation supply water index, period precipitation and precipitation days etc . The Analytic Hierarchy Price method was used to decide the weight of each fact or in the composite index. Four sequences of multifactor weight were determine d for clear sky and cloudy sky in the humid zone and semihumid zone, and coinc idence test were passed, corresponding composite models were established. T he grades of drought indices of four factors and five factors were confirmed. The composite models generally reflected moni toring results of each factor, which can give a synthetic judgment of drought si tuation and can be applied in the operational monitoring.
    13  Precipitation Variation Trend in Jiangsu Province From 1961 to 2005
    Qiu Xinfa Zhang Xiliang Zeng Yan Wu Jingang
    2008, 34(5):82-88. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.013
    [Abstract](688) [HTML](117) [PDF 2.19 M](938)
    Abstract:
    Based on the observational data of 62 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005, the spatial and temporal distributions and their trends for precipitation in Jiangs u Province are investigated. The conclusion can be drawn as follows: Although th e annual precipitation in Jiangsu has no significant change trend, the autumn pr ecipitation has an obvious decrease trend, but winter precipitation has a signif icant increase t rend. The annual precipitation days in Jiangsu have slightly decreased, which ar e mainly caused by the decrease of the annual days of the light rain, i.e. the d aily rainfall is less than 10.0mm. The extreme total rainfall and its frequency in summer appear a significant increase trend and the extreme precipitation inte nsity in autumn takes on a decrease trend.
    14  Doppler Radar Features for a Wind Decreasing Event  near Sailing Spots Caused by a Convective System
    Sheng Chunyan Diao Xiuguang
    2008, 34(5):89-93. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.014
    [Abstract](554) [HTML](77) [PDF 8.12 M](661)
    Abstract:
    With Huangdao Doppler radar products and the buoys data near sailing spots durin g Good Luck Beijing2006 Qingdao International Regatta, a case that the wind sp eeds near sailing spots decreased suddenly is analyzed to study the Doppler rada r features for the change of the surface wind speed. Results show that there is a shear layer of the wind field around the convective system. The height of the shear layer changes with moving and development of the convective system. When t he height of the shear layer falls and the wind speed near the shear layer decre ases,[KG*4/5] the wind speed near the sailing spots also decreases.Afte r the shear layer rises,the wind speed near the sailing spots increases too. T his phenomenon indicates that the height of the shear layer can affect the wind speed near the surface. The Doppler radar VAD Wind Profiler products can reflect the vertical change of the shear layer and wind speed, which is a good indicato r of the change of surface wind speed.
    15  Analysis of temperature index on growth and development of broad bean
    Wang Pengyun Zeng Yan Li Wanchun Tian Yan Zhang Qiusheng
    2008, 34(5):94-100. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.015
    [Abstract](479) [HTML](116) [PDF 588.36 K](788)
    Abstract:
    Based on broadbean yield data from 1971 to 2006, the meteorological yield of b road bean was calculated by use of smooth average method and furthermore the cli matic harvest patterns were classified into highyielding year, meanyielding year, and lowyielding years. By using the field observation data from 2001 to 2006,the mean growth period, and the relationship between daily mean temperatur e, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and growth of broadbea n was analyzed, and the temperature indexes of growth period of broadbean were determined, which include the upper limit of optimum temperature, lower limit o f lowest temperatures, extreme value of the upper limit of optimum temperatures, extreme value of lower limit lowest temperatures, the harmful temperature, the death temperatures of the development period from sowing to maturation of broad bean. On this basis, combining with other meteorological factors during the br oadbean growth period, the decision tables of meteorological service of broad bean growth season were established, which lay foundation for building the nor malized digital business process for meteorological services.
    16  The Performance Verification of the MediumRange Forecasting for  T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec.2007 to Feb.2008
    Tian Weihong
    2008, 34(5):101-107. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.016
    [Abstract](616) [HTML](64) [PDF 3.00 M](772)
    Abstract:
    In order to understand the efficiency of the products from a mediumrange forec asting model, the performance of T213 model for 96hr mediumrange numerical for ecasting was verified during the period of Dec. 2007 to Jan. 2008 comparing with ECMWF model and Japan model.The result shows that the three models all have go od performances for evolution and major adjustment of the largescale circulati on pattern in Asia high and middle latitude area. ECMWF model is better than the othe r two models for forecasting westerly index,the temperature of 850hPa,the circul ation of 500hPa and southern branch trough, especially the event occurred during 10th-16th Jan. 2008, but the T213 model and Japan model have errors in terms of the precision of the intensity,position of the main system.

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