ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 34,Issue 3,2008 Table of Contents

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  • 1  The Development of Integrated Meteorological Observation System
    Song Lianchun Li Wei
    2008, 34(3):3-9. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.001
    [Abstract](701) [HTML](327) [PDF 410.41 K](1176)
    Abstract:
    To review the history of meteorological observation development, close relationship between meteorological observation and weather forecasting has bee n analyzed, and the result shows that meteorological observation development has promoted weather forecasting development. Furthermore current development of me teorological observation is described, the prospect of new meteorological observ ation technology application and the future trend of meteorological instrumental development are analyzed and depicted. Finally some international integrated me teorological observation plans such as GCOS, GEOSS and WIGOS are introduced.
    2  A Review on Recent Researches on the First Rainy  Season's Onset and End Dates in South China
    Qiang Xuemin Yang Xiuqun Sun Chengyi
    2008, 34(3):10-15. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.002
    [Abstract](514) [HTML](87) [PDF 375.91 K](859)
    Abstract:
    A review on recent definitions of the onset and end dates of the First Rainy Season (FRS) in South China was made in this paper. To make an objective and significant definition, suggestions on the usage of the data, the selection of the appropriate region and the representative stations in South China, the pe riod of the rainy season, the threshold of each parameter quantity, such as prec ipitation, wind field and so on, and their synthesis are reasonably discussed un der the reference measures in defining Meiyu and the summer monsoon precipitatio n which are all related with the judgment on date definition.
    3  Effects of Underlying Surface Physical Process on a Severe Hail Event Occurred in Beijing Area
    Wang Hua Sun Jisong
    2008, 34(3):16-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.003
    [Abstract](914) [HTML](71) [PDF 3.67 M](1035)
    Abstract:
    The dual characteristics of its topography and urban boundary layer in Beijing area result in weather change diversity. The effects of s uch underlying surface physical process on the strong convective weather evoluti on are analyzed by combining a severe hail event occurred on May 31 2005 in Beij ing. Results indicate that the mountainous topography and urban boundary layer h ave great effects on the hailstorm evolvement, even on the hail falling area and intensity. The initial radar echoes of this case are sprung locally by the ther modynamic circulation and dynamical forcing induced by the mountainous topograph y in the west. The primary factors that intensify the convective radar echoes wh en it moves over the centre city downtown include the surfacemesoscale wind fie ld convergence line engendered by urban underlying surface thermodynamics effect s, as well as the air ascending and the congregating energy and water vapor. Als o, the trumpetlike topography in the north mountainous area and the windward s lope uplifting in the west have significant influence on the occurrence of local strong convective process and the development of those movingin cumulus.
    4  Research on Severe Convective Cloud Identificationby Using AMSUB Microwave Data
    Fang Xiang Qiu Hong Cao Zhiqiang Wang Xin Hong Gang
    2008, 34(3):22-29. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.004
    [Abstract](799) [HTML](83) [PDF 17.18 M](660)
    Abstract:
    Microwave remote sensing has a unique ability to penetrate the clouds and get th e distribution of ice. The brightness temperatures of the AMSUB three channels near to the water vapor absorption line have high sensitivity to frozen hydrome teors in convective cloud systems. As the ice contents ascend, the brightness te mperatures descend due to the ice scattering attenuation. Especially, the brightness temperature differences between the three channels ar e suggested as a criterion to detect the deep convective clouds. Based on the simulation of the influence of the water vapor, cloud and precipita tion particles on the three microwave brightness temperatures, and by analyzing the convective synoptic process occurred on 12 August 2005, the relationship bet ween the brightness temperatures and the convective intensity is studied. Furthe rmore, a measurable method is developed to estimate and identify the deep convec tive clouds and convective overshooting. This method is employed to investigate some typical convective systems. The results show that the convective cloud iden tified by AMSUB data well corresponds to the precipitation area, and even the convective overshooting region corresponds to the overshooting clouds structure.
    5  Retrieval of Sea Surface Temperature in Coastal Region by  Using MODIS Multichannel Data
    Zhang Chungui Chen Jiajin Xie Yifang Lin Jing Zeng Yindong
    2008, 34(3):30-36. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.005
    [Abstract](566) [HTML](254) [PDF 1.08 M](1202)
    Abstract:
    By using MODIS images of EOS satellite as data source,and taking coas tal region of Fujian as a demonstration site, the retrieval experiment of sea su rface temperature was carried out based on MODIS multichannel data,and the pr e cision of MODIS sea surface temperature was verified and analyzed with measureme nts of ten stations in coastal region of Fujian during 2003-2004. The average ab solute error of sea surface temperature calculated by MODIS data was 0.75℃ ,the standard error was 0.52℃,the samples of absolute error within 1.0℃ was 68% o f total samples. The results showed that the accuracy of sea surface temperature calculated by MODIS data in coastal region was equivalent with the accuracy of sea surface temperature calculated by NOAA/AVHRR data.
    6  Establishment and Application of Vegetation Index Sequences in Guangdong Based on MODIS Data
    He Quanjun Cao Jing Zhang Yuewei
    2008, 34(3):37-41. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.006
    [Abstract](609) [HTML](133) [PDF 574.97 K](852)
    Abstract:
    Vegetation index (VI) is an important criterion to evaluate vegetation condition. VI time series can be used to judge the spatialtemporal change rul e s of the vegetation coverage, land use and soil moisture, also they can be used to monitor drought and vegetation condition. Three kinds of vegetation indices, i.e ., ratio vegetation index (RVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) a nd enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were selected to establish the time series f or Guangdong province using maximum value composites (MVC) based on MODIS data i n 2004-2006. The rules of vegetation growth were analyzed in different vegetatio n cover type for the three vegetation indices. The vegetation coverage was compu ted by NDVI and classified to ana
    7  Study of Biascorrection and Consensus in Regional  Multimodel Superensemble Forecast
    Ma Qing Gong Jiandong Li Li Li Yinglin
    2008, 34(3):42-48. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.007
    [Abstract](868) [HTML](70) [PDF 1.26 M](1066)
    Abstract:
    Based on temperature forecasts of regional ensemble forecast models from six dif ferent operational centers and scientific research institutions, a study of bias correction and multimodel consensus has been done to reduce the system error and to improve the forecast precision. The objective and quantitative verificat ion results show that the forecast precision could be improved observably with t he biascorrection method. Both of the two methods used to be build the co nsensus forecast equations show a great improvement on forecast ability too. Cons ensus forecasts are more precise than any single model. And between the two kind s of consensus forecasts, the multiple regression analysis shows a better effect than the arithmetic average method.
    8  Diagnoses Analysis of Physical Characteristic Changes of  Tropical Storm Haima Before and after Its Transformation
    Zhang Yingxin Li Gene Zhang Shoubao
    2008, 34(3):49-55. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.008
    [Abstract](524) [HTML](124) [PDF 2.43 M](824)
    Abstract:
    By using the data of NCEP, the physical characteristics of tropical st orm ‘Haima' (0421) before and after its transformation are analyzed. The results show that before its transformation, ‘Haima' had a warm core and a sym me tric structure, and after transformation, the storm became more asymmetric and f rontal. In this process, the cold air invaded into storm from the southwestern p art at lowlevel layer. The relative vorticity changed from symmetric positive v alue at all levels beneath 200hPa to asymmetric structure. In the mean time, the mean relative vorticity and divergence in 24h in middle and low levels became b igger and layer became thicker. The height of vertical velocity center changed f rom 600hPa to 500hPa. There were two vaporchannels because of the eastward trough, one came with southwestern flow, and th e other came from the South China Sea with southern flow.
    9  The Synthetic Diagnostic Analysis of a Rainstormcausing MCC on Middle Yellow River
    Jing Yu Jing Xi Wang Rui Tu Nini Yu Xing Yang xin
    2008, 34(3):56-62. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.009
    [Abstract](543) [HTML](135) [PDF 18.10 M](681)
    Abstract:
    In order to improve the capability of forecasting and warning of rainstormcaus ing MCC, the diagnostic analysis was made on the synoptic cause and the 3dimen sional flow struc ture of MCC on 2 July 2006 on the Middle Yellow River by using the satellite ima ge, MICAPS and NCEP and Doppler radar data. The result shows that the MCC was t he direct influence system, the formation of warm and wet shear convergence in t he middlelow level, the αscale divergence in the higher level, and the lifting force from low level caused by the cold air mass frontogenesis, all thes e circulation background are favorable to the MCC. The MCC occurred on high ener gy and weak convective instability zone, where the southwest jet on 700hPa and s outh flow on 850 hPa provide plenty of water vapor and energy for MCC. The coupl ing of divergence field and vorticity field and the formation of updraft is the driving mechanism of MCC. The velocity images of Doppler radar show that the low southeast jet develops and maintains, the low jet to flow into the convergence line maintains and the bowlike αscale divergence belt on middle high le vel develops and maintains, all these constitute the 3dimensional flow structu re of the MCC.
    10  Echo Characteristics of Doppler Velocity in a Torrential Event
    Wang Yan Lv Jiangjin Zhou Haiguang Wang Lirong Wu Bingui
    2008, 34(3):63-68. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.010
    [Abstract](870) [HTML](135) [PDF 2.66 M](981)
    Abstract:
    Doppler radar, when used in detecting largescale intense precipitation, has it s echo features differing from the warm or cold advection alone (as an S or an tiS shape) and also differing from the largescale convergence or divergenc e (as a bowlike shape). The features of Doppler velocity resulting from the combination of warm or cold advection with c onvergence or divergence are called the complex windfield. Based on the Doppler weather radar data in Tanggu, AWS data and EVAD technique, analysis of Doppler weather radar data from an extensive, persistent strong rain fall event over the Hai river basin on August 16, 2005 was conducted and gave th e following results: (1) In the presence of a lowlevel complex windfield rel ated to the combination of warm advection and convergence, it can be seen from t he Doppler velocity products that, starting from the radar center, the clockwise curvature of a zerospeed line on one side toward the positive velocity zone i s more remarkable than the counterpart on the other side towards the negative ve locity zone, implying that when the negative speed zone is bigger compared to th e maximum positive area, rainfall is reinforced or maintained; (2) In the presen ce of a lowlevel complex windfield resulting from warm advection combined wit h divergence, the precipitation would be weakened or ceased. Therefore, the stud y on the convergence and divergence in the radar velocity field gives a good ind icator of nowcasting for the formation, development, maintenance and decay phases of a largescale rainfall event.
    11  Simulation of VIC Hydrologic Model During 2006 Flood Season
    Lin Jian Xie Zhenghui Chen Feng Xiao Ziniu Xue Jianjun
    2008, 34(3):69-77. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.011
    [Abstract](101) [HTML](99) [PDF 7.63 M](870)
    Abstract:
    The runoff and water content in soil and the discharge of hydrologic station in China during the flood season of 2006 are simulated by using the VIC (Variable I nfiltration Capacity) hydrologic model, with emphasis on the water logging disas ter produced by a heavy rainfall case from 28 June to 5 July 2006 in the valley of Huaihe River. Performance of the model in simulating the discharge over the H uaihe River basin is examined in different horizontal resolutions, e.g., coarse mesh and fine mesh(0.5°×0.5° and 0.1°×0.1°). Results show that patterns of simulated runoff and soil humidity are consistent with that of rainfall and t he model output for soil humidity is reasonable for reference. Temporal variation in the accumulated rainfall, runoff and soil humid ity can be used to monitor the water logging disaster. VIC land surface model and conflux m odel are able to reproduce the trend of realistic discharge in some degree. Disc harge simulation is sensitive to rainfall and is more realistic in the case of f ine mesh than in the case of coarse mesh. Model error likely comes from the unre asonable boundary of the drainage basin, calibration of parameters and atmospher ic forcing data.
    12  The Interannual and Interdecadal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Affecting Shandong Province
    Gao Xiaomei Jiang Jing Ma Shouqiang Xu Wenzheng
    2008, 34(3):78-85. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.012
    [Abstract](493) [HTML](59) [PDF 1.06 M](833)
    Abstract:
    Based on tropical cyclone yearbook data from 1949 to 2003, the climate character istics, such as interdecadal variation, period of tropical cyclone's frequency , rainstorm and strong wind, intensity characteristics, are analyzed. Main resul ts are as follows: Tropical cyclone affecting Shandong Province is from the last tenday of July to August and its interdecadal variation obeys the Student's ttest; The marked periodic variation of every 2.4 years and 5 years is found according to power spectrum analysis. It shows obvious weakening tendency about tropical cyclone's intensity by using Kendall test. It also shows that August is the strongest month in a year for rainstorm frequency and intensity, and floo d disaster is more easily occurred during this month. It is distinct for freque ncy's interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone causing rainstormand strong wind. Marked period exists about annual average precipitation and st rong wind. At the same time, the cause of the variation is discussed.
    13  Implement AHP to Evaluate Socioeconomic Benefit of Meteorological Service by Quantitative Analysis
    Hu Haibo Wang Yingchun Li Qingchun
    2008, 34(3):86-92. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.013
    [Abstract](534) [HTML](202) [PDF 1016.37 K](876)
    Abstract:
    A method to fill the weight coefficient of the index on cr iterion layer of the AHP model with voting by the public questionnaire is presen ted, and this could avoid complicated matrix calculating, purposed for the evaluating socioec onomic benefit of meteorological service with quantitative analysis. The evaluat ing model takes products of the routine meteorological service and that of the F orecasting Demonstration Projects (FDP) as candidate on the AHP scheme layer, and the weight coefficient is slightly apt to the requirement of the meteor ological service of Beijing 2008 OlympicGames. However, the result indicates that the FDP is much mo re satisfactory than the routine in the needs of the public and that of Olympic Game. It can be concluded that the spatial and temporal resolution of the presen t forecasting products should be promoted relatively according to the public's w ish, and it should enrich the way to transfer the information provided by short time forecasting products, enhance the timeliness of information transfer, and improve the meteorological service quality
    14  Methodology on Dynamical Prediction of Rape Yield in China
    Song Yingbo Wang Jianlin Chen Hui Yang Feiyun
    2008, 34(3):93-99. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.014
    [Abstract](468) [HTML](59) [PDF 352.40 K](892)
    Abstract:
    The rape is one of the most major oil plants. It is important to forecas t the yield of rape dynamically for agricultural production and national foodstuff secur ity. In this study, a dynamical prediction method has been established both for regionspecific rape yield and nationwide yield. The method utilizes the data o f rape yield, development stage, physiological meteorological index, daily maximu m and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and daily sunshine duration from individual major producing region and the whole china. The method involves with the calculation of composite diagnostic index from the correlation coefficient and Euclidean distance and the derivation of meteorological influence index for bumper or poor harvest in the prediction year from the historic meteorological i nfluence index. The results indicate that the method has high prediction accurac y of the bumper or poor harvest trend and the actual yield of rape on both trial and test of forecasting and can satisfy the needs of operational application. T he method not only can predict efficiency in advance, but also realize the capab ilities for dynamical tracking and prediction and has great potential in operati onal application. 
    15  Operational System of Monitoring and Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Pre cipitation
    Zhao Shanshan Gao Ge Ren Fumin Liu Qiufeng Sun Jiamin
    2008, 34(3):100-105. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.015
    [Abstract](401) [HTML](59) [PDF 1.52 M](745)
    Abstract:
    Originally Objective Method (OOM) and realtime dataset including trop ical cyclone path, strength and station precipitation are used to develop operat ional system of monitoring and impact assessment of tropical cyclone precipitati on. The system is composed of four functions: receiving of realtime tropical c y clone data, separating of precipitation caused by tropical cyclone, impact asses sment of tropical cyclone precipitation on water resource and social economy, an d display of figures. By introducing OOM technique and automatism of the operati onal system, the ability and efficiency of tropical cyclone assessment are impro ved greatly.
    16  Influence of Meteorological Factors on  Load Forecasting Based on the Decision Tree
    Gao Xia Zeng Xin Ma Cheng
    2008, 34(3):106-111. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.03.016
    [Abstract](602) [HTML](59) [PDF 1.07 M](871)
    Abstract:
    Based on the decision tree and combined with the meteorological factor s and the highest, lowest and average of electrical load, a model was establi shed to measure the influence of meteorological factors on the load. An effectiv e shortterm forecasting method was put forward to establish the forecasting mo del of dailycharacteristicload decision tree. Daily characteristic load is forecasted according to the model and the dateforecasted information such as wea ther,attributes (date, workday or weekend). The forecasted results show that the proposed method has highautomation and highaccuracy. The method applies the data of meteorological factors and load of Baoding in Hebei Province to train an d forecast,the results show that the new method can largely improve the precisi on of load forecasts.

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