ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 34,Issue 11,2008 Table of Contents

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  • 1  A Study on New Extreme Maximum Air Temperature in China
    Ye Chunhua Lv Jianzhou Lin Zhiguang
    2008, 34(11):3-6. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.001
    [Abstract](596) [HTML](106) [PDF 316.64 K](1098)
    Based on the air temperature contrast observations between Aiding lake bottom an d other 3 stations in Tulufan Basin, two new extreme values and three conclusion s are obtained. The two new extreme values are that(1).49.7℃, new extreme max imum air temperature record in China appeared in Aiding lake bottom on 3, August of 2008. (2)According to the temperature difference between Aiding lake botto m and Tulufan station, an extreme air temperature of 51℃ took place in Aiding l ake bottom in 1951. The three conclusions are that (1) the daily temperature ran ge of 24℃ in Tulufan Basin is much larger than that in the east mountain region of low height above sea level; (2) the maximum temperature lapse rate in Tulufa n Basin bottom of 1.7-1.9℃/100m is much larger than that in the east mountain ( 0.7-0.8℃/100m); (3) the appearance time of daily maximum temperature in Aiding lake bottom, 16-17 o'clock of local time, is 2 hours later than that in the east region (local time 14-15 o'clock).
    2  Contrast Analysis on Microclimate Characteristic of  Clear Day and Sanddust Day in Tazhong Station of  Desert Hinterland of South Xinjiang in Summer
    Wang Minzhong Wei Wenshou He Qing Yang Lianmei Liu Xinchun
    2008, 34(11):7-14. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.002
    [Abstract](1063) [HTML](182) [PDF 1.06 M](1255)
    By using the micrometeorology data and conventional observation data f rom the Taklimakan desert atmospheric environment observation station on 13~31 August 2006, and choosing the case of typical clear day and sand day, the microc limate characteristic and ground surface energy balance of two different weather conditions in Taklimakan desert hinterland were comparatively analyzed with Bow en Ratio Heat Budget Method. The results show that there has a obvious differenc e in microclimate characteristic and ground surface energy balance between clear day and sand day. The diurnal variation in air temperature,humidity and sand l ayer temperature on clear day was larger than that on sand day. The temperature inversion occurred near the surface layer at night of clear day, the temperature increasing with the height within certain altitude range. However, it presented isothermal during the night of sand day, the temperature changed little with in creasing height. Desert hinterland surface heat equilibrium was influenced great ly by sand weather. The global radiation, reflected radiation, net radiation and sensible heat flux of sand day were obviously smaller than those of clear day. But the atmosphere down long wave radiation was larger than clear day. No matter how for sand day or clear day, the latent heat variation difference was very sm all.
    3  Study on the 2nd Moment Spreadcorrection of  Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System
    Ma Qing Gong Jiandong Li Li Li Yinglin
    2008, 34(11):15-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.003
    [Abstract](988) [HTML](143) [PDF 1.09 M](1255)
    Based on 2m temperature forecast products from the mesoscale ensemble forecast models of NMC/CMA, a study of the 2nd moment biascorrection was conduct ed to correct the spread. The results show that the skill of various forecast mo dels could be improved, either the mean of ensemble forecast or probabilistic fo recast. The PDF of each forecast member is much more similar with the others. Th e CRPS of the corrected forecast is smaller than the raw forecast. The spread of forecast system is increased reasonably, and closer to the RMS, which means tha t the forecasts are much more reliable. What’s more, the talagrand diagram repr esenting for the reliability of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, the ROC and EV representing for the resolution of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, as well as the BS/BSS score of the ensem ble probabilistic forecast all reveal improvement of corrected ensemble forecast .
    4  Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Thunderstorm in China
    Lin Jian Qu Xiaobo
    2008, 34(11):22-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.004
    [Abstract](877) [HTML](790) [PDF 12.70 M](2475)
    By using 1970-2006 observed thunderstorm data from 847 stations in Chi na, the spatial and temporal characteristics of thunderstorm in China and the va riation of thunderstorm track in development and attenuation phases were demonst rated. Results show that thunderstorm in China were mainly concentrated over 4 r egions: south area, plateau area, north area and Xinjiang. Annual mean thunderst orm days decreased recent years, and the decreasing trend is obvious over south area and plateau area. Thunderstorms over south area were spread from the centra l part of south of Yangtze River to the westward and southward, and then to nort hward; thunderstorms of plateau stretched from south of Sichuan to the northwar d and westward; thunderstorms of north area stretched from the northeast of Nort h China to eastward and southward. In July the thunderstorm of the a bove 3 areas connected together and the extension and frequency of thunderstorm in China reached maximum due to the seasonal shift of subtropical high toward t he north. Thunderstorms began to withdraw along with the shift of subtropical hi gh toward the south from the second tendays of August to the first tendays o f October. Thunderstorms usually began at 12:00-24:00 from April to September with two maxima at 15:00-17:00 and 19:00-20:00, and the duration of thunderstorm ove r south area, especially over South China, is longest from March to September wi th three maxima, while over north area, including Xinjiang, the duration is shor ter concentrating in summer with later maximum time and lower frequency. Analysi s of the spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution of thunderstorm in C hina provides a macroscopically climatic background for the potential prediction of thunderstorm. The relationship between the evolution of thunderstorm and atm ospheric circulation and system will be studied in the near future.
    5  Assessment Analysis of Summer Temperature and Rainfall over China from Regiona l Climate Model
    Sun linhai Liu Yiming
    2008, 34(11):31-39. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.005
    [Abstract](813) [HTML](113) [PDF 4.46 M](1267)
    20-year hindcast experiments (1983-2002) and 5year forecasts of summer averag e temperature and rainfall over China are presented by using regional climate mo del (RegCM_NCC) that is a nested global atmosphere ocean coupled model (CGCM _NCC). The RegCM_NCC can reproduce the averaged pattern of average temperatu re and precipitation during the 20year hindcast summer. From the whole analysi s of the forecast score (P) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the RegCM _NCC has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal average temperatur e and rain belt, especially in some areas. The pattern of hindcasted 20year av erage temperature is very close to that of observed temperature, while there is some extent of difference between the patterns of hindcasted and observed precipitation. The forecast scores (P) of the hindcasted and forecasted 25year averaged summer temperature and precip itation are 67.9 and 67.6, respectively.
    6  A Multiindex Synthetic Assessment Method for Extreme Climate Events of Sleet ing and Freezing with Low Temperature
    Wan Suqin Zhou Yuehua Li Lan Shi Ruiqin Guo Guangfen Chen Bo
    2008, 34(11):40-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.006
    [Abstract](691) [HTML](207) [PDF 528.76 K](1247)
    Extreme climate elements such as torrential rain, extreme high temperature, extr emely low temperature and so on are always used to analyze and evaluate an extre me climate event. There was a continuous sleeting and freezing process with low temperature in the beginning of 2008. The process had the characteristics of l arge and sustained precipitation and snowfall, deep and longtime snow accumula tion, long time in daily lowtemperature with not so-low extreme low temperatur e. Therefore, it wasn't objective and accurate to choose any single one of these elements to analyze and evaluate this process. As a result, a comprehensive ind ex of sleet process was suggested,which takes largest number of days of rain and snow, total precip itation and snowfall as two indices to evaluate rain and snow, and takes largest number of days of continuous lowtemperature, average temperature and lowest t emperature as three indices to estimate low temperature. Meanwhile, in order to build a comprehensive index calculation model, these five indices were changed i nto dimensionless ones, and then summed with equal weight. The model was used to calculate the comprehensive index of the longest continuous sleeting and freezi ng process with lowtemperature of ten meteorological stations in Hubei provinc e. By comparing with the historical rank and recurrence period of the comprehens ive index, the process in 2008 was evaluated. The result showed that the model a nd method was objective, easy to be used and extended.
    7  Analysis on Extreme Freeze Catastrophic Weather of Hunan in 2008
    Huang Xiaoyu Li Zuxian Li Chao Zhang Hai Ju Jinglin
    2008, 34(11):47-53. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.007
    [Abstract](1034) [HTML](1968) [PDF 2.66 M](1277)
    At the beginning of 2008,Hunan province experienced an extreme freeze catastrop he that is rare since the complete meteorological record has been set. Analysis with conventional data indicates that the stable block high in the middle latitu de at high level of atmosphere, sustained strong subtropical high pressure, and stable Bengal trough kept Hunan in the southwest stream of the leading area of t rough. Warm and wet air mass brought by southwest jet at 700hPa sustained the pe rsistent precipitation and it was favorable for the temperature inversion. The s hear line at 850hPa oscillated within Hunan, the surface cold air invaded southw ards from Lake Dongting and led to large area precipitation. The macroscale circulation provided favori te background for the freeze disaster. Research on the relation among the air ve rtical structure, surface meteorological elements and freeze shows that the laye rs of inversion, melting layer and the surface temperature below 0℃ are key fac tors to form the freeze, the liquid precipitation played an important role, and the daily rainfall above 0.1mm was favorable for the formation and development o f freeze. The property of precipitation is an important factor. The persistent, large scale and stable drizzle and sleet are beneficial to the formation and dev elopment of freeze. Air temperature shows negative correlation with freeze devel opment. The temperature is the crucial for freeze when the vertical structure, p recipitation and geographic height are similar.
    8  Analysis on Characteristic and Forecast Model of Sanddusts Afecting Dalian
    Song Yu Qu Xiaobo Sui Hongqi Huang Zhen
    2008, 34(11):54-61. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.008
    [Abstract](586) [HTML](144) [PDF 2.03 M](1280)
    Based on meteorological observational data of seven years and the pattern of sanddust weather process affecting Dalian,t he characteristics and forecast model of sanddust invading Dalian were analyze d.The results show that sanddusts in Dalian occurred frequently in spring, si milar to other sites of China. There were four source locations and three transp ort paths of sanddust. The mean relative humidity was very low and the wind di rection was northwest mainly in sanddust weather. Most of the sanddusts move along the northwest paths invading Dalian.The north path corresponds to three w eather patterns, the west path corresponds to other three systems and the northw est path to four systems. Theforecast of sanddust should pay more attention to the sandrising in upstream region, then combine with analyzing the forecast m odelof three transportation paths.
    9  Technology and Application of Ecology Meteorological Synthetic Monitoring and Predicting for Northern Grassland in China
    Qian Shuan Mao Liuxi Hou Yingyu Wu Menxin Wang liangyu
    2008, 34(11):62-68. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.009
    [Abstract](782) [HTML](138) [PDF 2.08 M](1111)
    The grassland of more than 90% has degraded to some extent in recent decades i n China, especially the grassland in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, Xi njiang and Tibet degraded severely. The management department urgently needs to know how the meteorological influence on grassland vegetation growth,producti on, carrying livestock and ecological quality. The models about evaluating of me teorological conditions, predicting of grassland production and carrying livesto ck, and monitoring of ecological quality have been established by utilizing the fuzzy mathematics, collection operation, statistical analysis and “3S"technolog y. The used data in the model are grassland temperature, precipitation, sunlight hours, NOAA NDVI, grass biomass observation and so on. Theses models are used t imely in service. The good benefits are obtained. The application of northern gr assland ecological meteorological monitoring and predicting in 2007 is given. The result shows the models integrated many data resource and method advantage. The model results are close to the reality. The established synthetic technology can provide the scientific foundation for protection and restoration of grassland ecological environment.
    10  Calculation of the Wet Bulb Temperature Among Key Meteorological Parameters of Final Heat Sink of Inland Nuclear Power Station
    Yuan Yechang Chen Zhenghong
    2008, 34(11):69-73. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.010
    [Abstract](641) [HTML](129) [PDF 638.04 K](1184)
    The wet bulb temperature among key meteorological parameters of final heat sink of inland nuclear power is determined as air wet bulb temperature. According to daily maximum air wet bulb temperature of hottest month for last 10a and for las t 30a, and yearly maximum air wet bulb temperature for last 30a from Tongshan me teorological station near the Dafan Nuclear Power Plant, three kinds of curves i ncluding logarithm, Gumbel and polynomials curves are used to fit the distributi on of the probability with maximum air wet bulb temperature and to calculate the possible value once for different periods. The result suggests that yearly maxi mum air wet bulb temperature for more than 30a and Gumbel curve fitting are suit able for calculating of parameter,although polynomial curve fitting is best, a maximum value can’t be overpass that limits its further application. Accordin g to the yearly maximum fitted by Gumbel curve, the final extreme valueonce for 50a, 100a, 500a, 1000a are 30.3℃, 30.5℃, 31.1℃ and 31.3℃ respectiv ely for the Dafan nuclear power plant.
    11  Research on Influence of Meteorological Anomaly Indices to China’s Typical Industries
    Wu Xianhua Li Lianshui Guo Ji Cao Ling Ma Tinghuai
    2008, 34(11):74-83. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.011
    [Abstract](483) [HTML](194) [PDF 984.38 K](1098)
    In order to study the influence of meteorological factors to China’s typical in dustries, this article calculated and compiled the daily four point data of mete orological factors such as temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and atmosp heric pressure in 1999 to 2005, created the meteorological anomaly values and ab normal indices, collected data of typical manufacturing industries such as sales revenue, capital investment and labor input in the same period. By using the Co bbDouglas production functions, comparative analysis was made for the influenc e of these meteorological anomalies indices on the manufacturing industries.
    12  Analysis of Weather Characteristics for the Mirage
    Chen Lianyou Zhang Baogui Chen Xiaolei Jing Hua Zhou Jianxin Xu Jing
    2008, 34(11):84-88. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.012
    [Abstract](739) [HTML](124) [PDF 610.44 K](1322)
    Three mirages which took place in 1987 and 2006 were selected and some meteor ological elements during and before the mirage, such as weather situation, surfa ce pressure field, water vapor remotely sensed by GPS and local meteorological f actors were analyzed. The result shows that the mirage usually occurs in the rea r of upper trough. In the meantime, it is in the front of surface high pressure as dry and cold air just passed by. In the coastal region, if there would be the se circumstances, such as a light wind, sharp decrease of temperature , low humi dity, and the dew point deference is not lower than 6℃ at 700hPa, the layer of humid saturated air is in the transient state from an unstable condition to a st able situation of dry air,the wonderful view of mirage would have a high prob ability to take place.
    13  Design of Revisal Platform for Refined Forecast
    Ding Jianjun Luo Bing Zhao Guangping Liu Yong Liu Gaoping
    2008, 34(11):89-95. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.013
    [Abstract](970) [HTML](157) [PDF 1.55 M](1386)
    By analyzing the revisal platform’s characteristic and demand of elab orate forecast,the design idea,flow structure and main function of elaborate f orecast platform were described. Based on the similar area reasonably made by fo recast products and the connection of forecast element of the representative sta tion to the other stations in the similar area, and by referring to the objectiv e forecast of refined meteorological factors or the guidance forecast products b y higher levels, the platform completed modification and revisal in high space-t ime density and multiple forecast elemenst in the form of text and figure. At th e same time,the platform also offered technical support for developing elaborat e forecast and realized guidance level by level such as country,province and ci ty’s guidance to revisal of local operation flow.
    14  Analysis on the Case of Smoke Haze
    Zhang Hong Qiu Mingyan Huang Yong
    2008, 34(11):96-100. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.014
    [Abstract](654) [HTML](185) [PDF 13.97 M](1799)
    The burning of straw had a bad effect on the air quality, and increased the prob ability of smoke haze. The smoke haze is a meteorological phenomenon that the ai r is turbid and the visibility range decreases. By using remote sensing data and trajectory of pollutant, and taking the terrain and meteorological condition in to consideration, the meteorological cause of a case of smoke haze on 10 June 20 07 was analyzed. The results show that the decisive factors are the burni ng of straw, stable atmosphere and typical terrain of socalled “Zhengzhou gul f”.
    15  Climatic Regionalization of Citrus in the Middle Subtropical Monsoon Wetness Areas of Eastern Guizhou Province
    Chi Zhaixiang Long Xianju Yan Lihua Zhang Yanmei Liu Lijuan
    2008, 34(11):101-105. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.015
    [Abstract](563) [HTML](280) [PDF 637.57 K](1157)
    Based on 34 stations data in Eastern Guizhou from 1981 to 2005, fifteen climatic factors, including the annual mean temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, extreme minimum temperature, ≥35℃ extreme maxi mum temperature days, January and July monthly mean temperature, accumulated tem perature and precipitation in midApril to midMay and midJuly to midNovem ber, April to October monthly precipitation, March to May and July to October su nshine hours, were analyzed with EOF to identify the index of climatic regionali zation. Four types of climatic areas for citrus in the middle subtropical monsoo n wetness of eastern Guizhou were studied by fuzzy assemble analysis. The region alized results provide a scientific basis for citrus planting in Guizhou and sou thwestern area of China.
    16  The Performance Verification of the Mediumrange Forecast for T639  and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2008
    Cai Xiangning
    2008, 34(11):111-116. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.017
    [Abstract](700) [HTML](170) [PDF 3.48 M](1028)
    In order to better use the T639 products, some synoptic verifications about its mediumrange forecasting in 2008 summer are made in compariso n with the counterparts of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that three mo dels have good performances in the aspect of predicting the largescale circula tion evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude area. As a whole, ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T63 9 and Japan models. Especially, T639 model has a large error in predicting path and intensity of typhoon FUNGWONG, whereas ECMWF and Japan models are relative ly accurate.

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