ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 33,Issue 9,2007 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Some Problems on Setting up Mesoscale Synoptic Operational  Platform I: Scientific Problems and Basic Structure
    Ni Yunqi
    2007, 33(9):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.001
    [Abstract](849) [HTML](54) [PDF 1.63 M](818)
    Abstract:
    Several scientific problems related to setting up mesoscale synoptic operation al platform are discussed. A series of new techniques and new theories must be u sed to solve these proposed scientific problems. Therefore, the idea of setting up a mesoscale synoptic operational platform has been put forward.
    2  Verification of Weather Elements Objective Forecast in  Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center
    Qi Liangbo Cao Xiaogang Xia Li Chen Chunhong Liang Xudong
    2007, 33(9):9-18. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.002
    [Abstract](699) [HTML](56) [PDF 561.07 K](897)
    Abstract:
    Numerical model output's verification and interpretation are very important to m odel's development and maximum operational application. Shanghai Regional Meteor ological Center (SRMC)'s regional numerical model has been in operation for near ly 10 years. Evaluation on its forecasting capabilities must be conducted for it s scientific developing. On the other side, model output interpretation has been entering a new time of consensus theory. Applications of numerical model output interpretation based on Kalman filter and optimal consensus foreca st are introduced and verified in SRMC.  After detailed verification and comparison on Direct Model Output (DMO),Kalman f ilter interpretation(KLM),Optimal Consensus Forecast(OCF) for SRMC's regional nu merical model, it is found that (1) For temperature, relative humidity and wind , the performance of SRMC's DMO does not show a trend of improvement, but a litt le declination, though it has had a more stable wind speed forecast since 2005. (2) The comparison of KLM and DMO shows that the forecast stability of KLM behav es much higher than that of DMO in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed . But its forecast on wind direction shows no advance with a slightly lower accu racy than DMO. (3) OCF performs better than KLM. For temperature, relative humid ity and wind direction's accuracies, it shows an improvement of 2%. As to wind s peed, though its accuracy is nearly equal to KLM's, it has a lower average error than the latter. In the spring and winter, the OCF stands at the same accuracy level with official forecast. With the guidance of OCF, the weakness of official forecast, “Which is error in the spring and winter than other seasons”, can b e mended. The verification results could be good references for numerical model' s development and transplantation. The success of OCF in SRMC's routine operatio n projects a bright prosperity for the application of consensus theory on numeri cal model objective interpretation.
    3  A Display System of CINRAD 3D Mosaic Products
    Zhang Zhiqiang Liu Liping Xie Mingyuan Wang Hongyan Xiao Yanjiao
    2007, 33(9):19-24. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.003
    [Abstract](762) [HTML](132) [PDF 5.25 M](938)
    Abstract:
    The display system of weather radar 3D mosaic products, which combined with the Volume Rendering Algorithm is a displaying platform on VTK (Visualization Toolki t). The platform aimed at weather radar 3D mosaic products, which is developed b y State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sc iences. By taking into account the demand of realtime processing and postana lysis, it realized the radar reflectivity display of any plane, including the X, Y, Z planes. Using raycasting algorithm, it realized the three dimensional re construction of radar reflectivity. Combining with 2D display of products and in teraction function of 2D and 3D, it comprehensively displayed the spatial distri bution of the radar echo, and made the advantages of 3D mosaic products into ful l play.
    4  Numerical Experiments and Diagnosis on a Heavy  Snow of Returnflow Events
    Zhang Yingxin Hou Ruiqin Zhang Shoubao
    2007, 33(9):25-32. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.004
    [Abstract](1623) [HTML](89) [PDF 2.20 M](923)
    Abstract:
    It is difficult to forecast the returnflow weather which occurred over North C hina. In order to reveal the mechanism of returnflow weather, such as the character o f returnflow, a heavy snow of returnflow weather which occurred over North C hina was diagnosed and investigated by using NCEP data and the Pennsylvania State Univers ityNCAR FifthGeneration Mesoscale Model (MM5), version 3. The results show t hat the start and end time of precipitation was closely related to the wind direct ion, including the upper warm and humid air and lower cold air. The lower layer air from Northeast Plain through Bohai Sea was drier and colder than the upper air f rom southwest. The moisture of returnflow weather mainly came from southwest w ith southwestern flow.
    5  The Relationship Between the Landslide and Debris Flows and the Precipitation in Yunnan Province Under Conditions of Different Geology and Geomorphology
    Duan Xu Tao Yun Liu Jianyu Peng Guifen
    2007, 33(9):33-39. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.005
    [Abstract](580) [HTML](96) [PDF 1.17 M](898)
    Abstract:
    Using day by day precipitation data from May to October during the period of 200 1—2005, the landslide and debris flow cases and the grades data of geology and geomorphology feature, the relationship between the landslide and debris flows a nd precipitation in Yunnan Province under the different geology and physiogn omy conditions was investigated. The results indicated that there is close relat io n between the landslide and debris flows and the preceding cumulative precipit ation. The most sensitive rainfall conditions are 8days cumulative precipitati on(40~50mm), 9days cumulative precipitation(70~80mm), 10days cumulative prec ipitation(100~110mm) and 1~2days cumulative precipitation(30~40mm), etc. Un der the conditions of the deficiency of precipitation observation spatial densit y, it is very important that preceding cumulative precipitation was applied to a nalyzing the relationship between the landslide and debris flows and the precipi tation. Under the conditions of various geology and geomorphology, the landslide and debris flows respond well to precipitation. It is very useful for reducing empty prediction ratio to synthetically con sidering various geology and geomorphology in the course of prediction.
    6  Statistical Forecast Model of Storm Surge on West Coast of the Bohai Sea
    Wang Yuebin
    2007, 33(9):40-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.006
    [Abstract](475) [HTML](127) [PDF 1.04 M](748)
    Abstract:
    Storm surge occurs frequently in the west coast of the Bohai Sea. Its frequency and disaster losses have shown an obvious tendency to increase sin ce 1990. Based on the tide data obtained at Huanghua harbor, the feature of storm surge in the wes t coast of the Bohai Sea was statistically analyzed by means of a combined techn ique of meteorological and marinehydrological sciences. The results show that the [JP] typhoon and strong cold air matching with cyclone are most synoptic systems wh ich result in the storm surge of Bohai Sea. The rising water with strong easterl y wind, together with astronomic tide, are the direct factors. Both the storm su r ge and the astronomic tide occur in the form of semidiurnal tide. On the basis o f above results, a forecast model of storm surge was set up, then the rising wat er value caused by typhoon or cold cyclones was calculated, the maximum tide is forecasted through superposition of astronomical tidal data. The forecast method is applied to the hindcast experiments of 7 storm surges that occurred in the w est coast of Bohai Sea, and the result is more satisfactory. The method is very useful for coastal stations.
    7  Analysis of FY-2C Satellite Images of theThunderstorm 060610 in Zhejiang
    Hong Yi Li Yuzhu Chen Zhiyuan Li Xinfang
    2007, 33(9):47-51. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.007
    [Abstract](822) [HTML](71) [PDF 17.13 M](687)
    Abstract:
    By using FY-2C geostationary weather satellite cloud images, the ground meso scale weather monitoring data and a series of techniques, such as WeissSmith method, layering of brightness temperature of cloud top and combination of mult iple channel brightness temperatures, a quantitative analysis was performed for the hail and thunderstorm strong wind weather process that occurred in northern region of Zhejiang on June 10, 2006. The results of cloud image analysis show that th e TBB is lower than 230K(-44°C) when the convection grows most prosperouslyand the area with the brightness temperature difference of lower than -4°C cor responds to the place where is most affected by the strong thunderstorm. The ce nter of low value with Tc≤-7°Ccorresponds to the strong echo of rad ar. There is a good correspondence between the strong convective weather and ma ximum gradient of TBB, which distributes along the moving cloud cluster . The moving path of strong storm is similar to that of the maximum positive gradient of TV.
    8  A Study on a Heavy Fog Process after Snowfall in the Beginning of 2007
    Cao Zhiqiang Fang Xiang Wu Xiaojing Li Xiaolong
    2007, 33(9):52-58. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.008
    [Abstract](915) [HTML](81) [PDF 2.93 M](980)
    Abstract:
    Heavy fog is one of the main disaster weather. From January 1 to 5,2007, a heavy fog formed over north China plain. Multipledata was used to analyses the weat her background, including temperature and humidity condition and the stratificat ion of atmosphere. The results showed that during the days of heavy fog, the syn optic situation was stable. There was no cold air outburst. The circulation situ ation of the middle and high levels in Asia and Europe was one ridge two troughs circulation pattern, and the south branch air flow was straight. North China pla in was situated at the rear of high pressure moving to the sea and there was wea k wind blowing from northeast or east. The weak wind was not only favorable to t he advection transfer of the moist and warm air, but also didn't destroy the for mation conditions of heavy fog. At the same time, the stratification of atmosphe re was absolutely stable and there was a deep inversion layer. When the moist an d warm air advected onto this cold ground, they was cooling down and forming hea vy fog. So this fog belonged to advection cooling fog. The heavy fog lasted 5 da ys because of the maintenance of the stable synoptic situation and the air advec tion. In addition, the low sea level elevation of North China plain was another important reason of the formation of heavy fog because it was favorable to the a dvection.
    9  Flight Weather Conditions in Nyingchi Airport in Tibet
    Fan Bo Wang Jie Dan Zeng Hong Mei Chen Gongyan Tan Bo
    2007, 33(9):59-63. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.009
    [Abstract](576) [HTML](572) [PDF 496.19 K](1173)
    Abstract:
    The third tour branchline civil airport in Nyingchi Prefecture had b u ilt in March 2006 in Tibet. The flight adjustment and experiment were delayed du e to the complex geographical environment and severe weather condition. In the c omplicated climate background over QinghaiTibet Plateau and based on the meteo r ological data which was achieved before airport construction and during the flig ht adjustment, the flight weather influencing factors has been studied and the w eather adjustment condition in Nyingchi airport has been discussed. The results have great reference value for aviation meteorological information service over plateau region.
    10  Anatomy of the Evolution of Radar Echo at “7.7” Heavy Rain in the Western Panzhihua
    Deng Bo Gu Qingyuan Luo Jufang
    2007, 33(9):64-68. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.010
    [Abstract](687) [HTML](57) [PDF 6.65 M](793)
    Abstract:
    The general circulation and the evolution characteristics of newgene ration radar echo of the heavy rain on Jul. 7,2006 (simply called as “7.7" r ainstorm) in the western Panzhihua (called Panxi) are analyzed in detail. The res ult shows that before raining, there was a plenty of unstable energy, and a vert ical westerly shear in the atmosphere. Nearsurface cold air and a shear line o ver the Tibetan Plateau triggered an intensive convection and led to a heavy rai n in a large area. The echo intensity of the super cell storm could reach to 60dBz . Longsustained radar echo was the result of new genesis and merging of the ec ho. During the mature stage of radar echo, significant ascending movement took pl ace within the strong echo area. The height of strong echo over 40dBz could be a s high as 9,000 meters with its top height above 12,000 meters. Meanwhile, the a mount of liquid water in the air column reaches 45kg·m-2and there were r everse wind, smallsize cyclone and convergence as seen in the velocity chart.
    11  Analysis of a Dust Weather Process in Lhasa
    He Xiaohong Cirendeji Lin Zhiqiang
    2007, 33(9):69-73. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.011
    [Abstract](564) [HTML](90) [PDF 1.06 M](868)
    Abstract:
    From January 15 to 17,2007, a dusts weather process occurred around the region of Lhasa, which caused the pollution of air and the decrease of visi bility.It brought bad influence to the Lhasa's production, transportation and r esident life. The weather and climate characteristics are analyzed to depict the local meteorological conditions which cause the dust and air pollution. The r esults indicated that the causes of the dusts were the hot air confronted cold a ir on the plateau region, temperature gradient and front increasing. The st rong wind blew in the western region of Lhasa and arose the floating dusts f rom the dry and incompact surface land. A great deal of thin sand in the weak conve rgence zone went to Lhasa along with the western highlevel air current. Meanw hile, th e Lhasa's local low altitude had the steady atmosphere layer and weak wind. This weather and orographic conditions are favorable to the invasion 〖JP2〗of float ing sand, which caused the dusts breaking out, air polluting and visibility decreasing. F inally, some ideas are put forward for the forecast of dust weather in Lhasa.
    12  Analysis of a Severe Convection Event in Plain of Hebei in Late Spring
    Li Jiangbo Yan Jusheng Ma fenglian
    2007, 33(9):74-82. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.012
    [Abstract](519) [HTML](55) [PDF 3.65 M](771)
    Abstract:
    A severe convection event in the plain of Hebei on May 10, 2005 is investigated from such aspects as synoptic situation,physical mech anism,radar echo and satellite image evolution,and the Taihang Mountain forcin g, etc. by using the NCEP reanalysis data, conventional observations and the dat a from automatic weather stations,Doppler radar,Fengyun2C satellite images. The result shows that the severe convection weather arise in the transition from verticality to forward slant of the upper trough,so there was a different advec tion between the mid(cold and dry) and lower (warm and wet) troposphere,whi ch was quite important to the formation and development of convective instability. The event was triggered by the surface low and mesoscale convergence line,an d the squall line was direct influencing system.. It is also found t hat the severe convection area had a better corresponding relation to the high potential pseudoequivalent temperature (θse) at lower level,large water vapor fl ux,strong convergence and upward current,and high convective available potential energy ( CAPE) during this event.
    13  Diagnosis of Autumn Rainstorm in Liaoning:A Case Study
    Sun Xin Cai Xiangning Huang Ge
    2007, 33(9):83-93. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.013
    [Abstract](663) [HTML](59) [PDF 1.22 M](854)
    Abstract:
    Using 1.0×1.0° NCEP reanalyzed data and based on the analysis of the synoptic situation of a rainstorm in late autumn, physical quantity diagnosis w as carried out. The results indicate that under the advantageous environmental b ackground situation, high potential vorticity extends from upper troposphere to low level and forms moist potential vorticity column, which causes the superposi tion of the cyclonic circulation and the low vortex circulation. The enhancement of moist baroclinity in the low troposphere causes the strengthening of the fro ntal zone in the low level and the development of vertical vorticity; the dry an d cold air invaded from upper level enters into the bottom layer, and the warm a nd wet air in the low level is forced to lift, which causes the surface cyclone to develop. The coupling of high and low level jet produces the upward curstronger compensation sinking movement excites the strengthening of lifting move ment, which produces the secondary circulation and triggers the release of unsta ble energy. The low and superlow level jets transport warm and wet air and ene r gy to Liaoning, so the moist air column is formed in the middle and low troposph ere and high unstable energy is accumulated. The appearance time, intensity, pos ition and structure of mesoscale cyclone, high and low level jets, moist poten tial vorticity column, the rising branch of secondary circulation, the surface we t area with high moisture content and high potential pseudoequivalent temperatu re decide occurring time and falling area of rainstorm.
    14  Experimental Investigation on the Improved Prediction Models with  AverageGeneration Functions
    Tang Yuyong Jiang Guoxing Zhou Lixing Huang Shujuan
    2007, 33(9):94-97. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.014
    [Abstract](514) [HTML](59) [PDF 392.84 K](701)
    Abstract:
    In order to increase the forecasting accuracy, techniques of sh ortseries modeling and residual correction are improved and the prediction mod els of original series, shortseries and corresponding residual correction are developed on the basis of prediction technique of averagedgeneration functions. The used data are the precipitation data of Baishe City from June to August in 195120 06. The results show that the forecasting accuracy and precise of these improve d models have raise to some extent, especially the Ts of MGFAFM model is 25% hig her than MGFFM. The operational use of a consensus forecast with four models to the monthly rainfall amount is a good choice.
    15  An Operational Monitoring and Diagnostic System for East Asian Summer Monsoon
    Zhu Yanfeng Li Wei Wang Xiaoling Jiang Ying
    2007, 33(9):98-102. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.015
    [Abstract](506) [HTML](75) [PDF 1.58 M](627)
    Abstract:
    The East Asian monsoon diagnostic and monitoring operational syste m was introduced, which is one of the important operational systems of National Cl imate Center. The atmospheric data, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and China station precipitation data were received realtimely by this system. The system archived realtime monitoring for variation of rain belt over China and the activity of East Asia monsoon (including the break out, advance and intensi ty of summer monsoon, etc). The East Asia monsoon diagnostics and monitoring ope ration system provides multifold monitoring products, as well as the East Asia M onsoon monitoring bulletin.
    16  Achievement of Remote Seeding on Precipitation Enhancement by Airplane
    You Jiping Feng Yongji Lin Junjun Zhao Bo Jiang Zhengyong
    2007, 33(9):103-106. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.016
    [Abstract](537) [HTML](58) [PDF 707.34 K](711)
    Abstract:
    A remote seeding system for precipitation enhancement was set up. New technology such as remote wireless radio and airground transmission has been u s ed in this system to control precipitation enhancement in real time. It has deve loped the technique of controlling flue catalytic devices in airplane via grou nd instruction. It is the first success in China to enhance precipitation by air plane through remote automatic system.
    17  Analysis of Electromagnetic Radiation Pollution of CINRAD
    Wang Feng Cheng Xiaoquan Xu Nong
    2007, 33(9):107-111. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.017
    [Abstract](873) [HTML](97) [PDF 371.34 K](919)
    Abstract:
    To aim at analyzing the new generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD ) electromagnetic radiation environmental impact,based on the technical parameters and operation mode of the CINRAD, and combined with the achievement of envir onmental impact assessment in Anhui,the electromagnetic radiation distribution o f the radar calculated, the impact of radar is estimated, and the safety distanc e around it is calculated. It is beneficial to optimizing the distribution of ra dars.
    18  Study on the Grade Classification of Pollen Concentration
    Bai Yurong Duan Liyao Wu Zhenling Liu Yan Meng Yaqin
    2007, 33(9):112-117. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.018
    [Abstract](483) [HTML](619) [PDF 479.47 K](1148)
    Abstract:
    With the extension of environmental meteorological services, pollen forecast has been implemented in a lot of province. Because grad of pollen prediction has no uniform standard and the results of service have been influenced at present. In order to standardize pollen concentration prediction objectively, the seasonal change character of pollen was analyzed based on the data of twentynine provin ce of China. A correlation between the pollen concentration and the pollen anaph ylaxis was statistically analyzed based on the data of pollen observations achie ved in 20012005, Tianjin and in 1994-1995, Wuhan, and the data of patients who are sensitive to the pollen. According to pollensensitized intensity of differen t kind of plant, including woody plant and herbaceous plant, five grades of poll en concentration were classified: low, lower, medium, higher and high, respectiv ely. The classification shows a good consistency between the pollen concentratio nand the pollen anaphylaxis.Although the pollen concentration does not accurately describe the change of incidence of pollinosis, it can indicate evolution trend . The grades are convenient and practical to the operation service.

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