ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 33,Issue 3,2007 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Polar Meteorology and Global Change
    Bian Lingen Chen Bailian Xin Yufei
    2007, 33(3):3-9. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.001
    [Abstract](558) [HTML](204) [PDF 419.30 K](1309)
    The polar regions are presently changing faster than any other regions of the Ea rth, with both regional and global implications for societies, economics and eco systems. This is particularly evident in globally shrinking snow and ice, inclu ding reductions in the extent of glaciers and ice sheets, reductions in area, di minishing and warming permafrost and reductions in the extent and thickness of A rctic sea ice. Changing polar environments are closely linked to environmental change elsewhere on our planet,examples of the formation of the ozone hole by t he processes of the accumulation of pollutants from lower latitudes. Within the polar regions lie important scientific challenges yet to be investigated as wel l as unique vantage points for science. The regions beneath the polar ice sheets and under the icecovered oceans remain largely unknown. Many of the new scient ific frontiers in the polar regions are at the intersection of traditional scien tific disciplines. Therefore, International Polar Year(IPY) in 2007-2008 will s t art from 1 March 2007 cosponsored by the International Council of Scientific Un ions (ICSU) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for making a great c ontribution to the study of polar meteorology, oceanography, glaciology, hy drology.
    2  Correlation between Monsoon Surge and Heavy Rainfall Causing Flashflood in Southern China in Summer
    Tao Shiyan Wei Jie
    2007, 33(3):10-18. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.002
    [Abstract](711) [HTML](128) [PDF 4.46 M](1447)
    During summer the southern part of China to the south of the Huaihe R iver is vulnerable to the threat of the heavy rainfall causing flood damages. Th e rainstorms usually appear on a stationary front which is situated along the ri ver basins. There is a monsoon surge to the south of the stationary front bringi ng moisture into the rainstorms. The relation between the monsoon surge and the heavy rainfall causing flood damages in southern China is studied . It is found that the intraseasonal variability of the general oscillation from the equatorial Indian Ocean named the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) is most p rominent in Asian and Australian monsoon sectors. When MJO propagates to the Sou th China Sea sectors, the west winds (monsoon) at 850hPa will strengthen and the sector convection will be enhanced. At the same time, there is a monsoon surge in the southern part of China. When the monsoon surge meets with cold air from northern China, there will be severe rainstorms along the stationary front.
    3  Methane Emissions from the Early and Late Rice Fields of Qingyuan, Guangdong
    Xu Li Ren Wanhui Yang Ning Wang Tianlong Liu Jinluan Ma k Khalil R. Rasmussen and M. Shearer
    2007, 33(3):19-27. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.003
    [Abstract](599) [HTML](88) [PDF 702.95 K](921)
    CH4 emission fluxes from early and late rice fields in Qingyuan suburb s of Guangdong Province during the period of 2003—2004 were analyzed. The exper imental site is located in the villages of Longjing and Liwei of northwest of Gua ngzhou City. A static chamber method is used for the measurement of CH4 emissi on. Air samples in the field box were analyzed using a gaschromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector (GC/FID GOWMAC, series 350) in a laboratory o f Qingyuan Meteorological Station. The average fluxes of CH4 emission for rice crop acreage during the early and late rice growing seasons were 4.38 and 6.09mg? m-2?h-1 in 2003, 5.17 and 8.3mg?m-2?h-1 in 2004. CH4 emission and the rice yield had some differences for different rice cultivar. Rice variety “Qisijian" has n ot only higher CH4 emission (higher by 1.08mg?m-2?h-1) but also a lower yield (0.64 times yield) compared with rice variety “Jinyou 99". Therefo re, the choice of the rice variety which has less CH4 emission and more yield is a good way to mitigate CH4 emission.
    4  Improvement of Convective Weather Forecasting with Enhanced 1400 BST Sounding Data
    Liao Xiaonong Yu Xiaoding Tan Yizhou
    2007, 33(3):28-32. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.004
    [Abstract](648) [HTML](164) [PDF 445.01 K](973)
    Eleven year (1995—2005) data from 22 observation stations are used in the statistic analysis in order to get the diurnal variation characteristics of convective weather events in Beijing area. The results show that 41.6% thunder s howers, 61.3% hail events and 58.5% gale wind gust events occurred in the period from 1500 BST to 2000 BST. Seven cases in July and August, 2006 are selected to test whether or not the 1400 BST sounding data are useful for the improvement i n forecasting thunderstorms after 1400 BST. Some convection diagnostic parameter s such as CAPE, DCAPE and CIN are calculated based on the sounding data of both 0800 BST and 1400 BST. The results of comparison indicate that 1400 BST sounding data are more helpful than 0800 BST sounding data in forecasting convective wea ther.
    5  The Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data of QuikSCAT and Its Application in Tropical Cyclone Analysis
    Fang Xiang Xian Di Li Xiaolong Wang Xin
    2007, 33(3):33-39. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.005
    [Abstract](650) [HTML](343) [PDF 10.91 M](1925)
    Wind vectors can be observed by the QuikSCAT/SeaWinds(QSCAT) satellite mission, which are at a height of 10m above the local mean sea surface. It plays an impor tant role in the monitoring and further theoretic analysis of tropical cyclones (TCs). Based on the introduction of status and development of ocean wind satell ites, the wind vectors products processing methods and the application for TCs d etection is expatiated. Then, the worked QSCAT wind vectors are va lidated by comparing with the QSCAT original data and the winds with in situ obs ervations by ocean buoys. It was found that the accuracy varied across the swath, with average absolute errors in speed of 0.71m.s-1 and in the direction of 26.29°, whi le the rootmeansquared differences are 1.2m?s-1 and 29.33°, respecti vely. For the more convenient using the database, the researchers in National Sa tellite Meteorological Center (NSMC) treat with the wind vectors to regular grid ded data even in the 0.1°×0.1° area, also to MICAPS format. In research app lications, the QSCAT wind vectors token directly the location and intensity of T Cs, especially earlier detection, with the distinguishing the powerful wind area . In addition, it also allows the study of determining what promotes tropical cy clogenesis, due to the analysis of air stream fields.
    6  A Case Study on the Effects of Cold Air from the Southern Hemisphere on the Continuous Heavy Rains in South China
    Zhao Yuchun Li Zechun Xiao Ziniu
    2007, 33(3):40-47. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.006
    [Abstract](505) [HTML](100) [PDF 3.14 M](992)
    A lastingseveralday heavy rain, which leads to severe floods and dis asters, occurred from June 17 to 24, 2005, when there exists strong cold air act ivity in the Southern Hemisphere. In order to investigate the effects of cold ai r from the Southern Hemisphere on the continuous heavy rain and its related phys ical way, taking the continuous heavy rain process as an example, the role of th e cold air in the formation of heavy rain is preliminarily analyzed with NCEP 6  hourly reanalysis data, hourly TBB and rainfall data in South China. The results are as follows: The Mascarene high moves eastward and lands in Australia under the steering of 500hPa westerly trough, which leads to the outbreak of cold air in the Southern Hemisphere and strengthens the crossequatorial flows at the longitudes of 40~60°E, 60~70°E and 85~95°E. Then the crossequatorial flows move toward South China, enhance the low l evel jet in the southern part of South China and the north of South China Sea an d increase the moisture transportation in heavy rain area. It is one of the main reasons in the formation of lastingseveralday heavy rains.
    7  A Comparative Analysis of Doppler Radar Products in Hail, Gale and Shorttime Heavy Rainfall in Jiangxi
    Yin Dongmei Xu Aihua Huang Zuhui
    2007, 33(3):48-53. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.007
    [Abstract](1198) [HTML](93) [PDF 6.09 M](1409)
    To fully apply Doppler radar data in detecting and warning the convective weathe r events such as hail, intense gust and shorttime heavy rainfall wit h thunderstorm and high resolution nowcasting, 8 typical events featured by inte nsive convection are selected for a comparative analysis of the echo features o f hail and intense gust and shorttime heavy rainfall with the particular emp hasis on the differences between the echo features of hail and intense gust and short time heavy rainfall from seven aspects. The results show that the average e cho height with reflectivity from 45 to 55dBz is 12.5km high when the hail or gu st with thunderstorm occurs. It reaches or even exceeds the height of the layer with the temperature of -25℃ and is 5.6km higher than that of the short-time he avy rainfall. As for hail, the typical echo characters include WER (Weak Echo Re gion) or BWER (Boundary WER), TBSS (ThreeBody Scatter Spider), sustaining high VIL, high humidity in lower layer and low humidity in high layer, mesocyclone a nd strong vertical wind shear. On the other hand, when the shorttime heavy rai n fall occurs, the typical echo characters corresponding to Doppler radar products as SRM (stormrelative map) velocity include warm advection Sshaped, lowla yer airflow shaped like the eyes of cattle and the thick layer of humidity. Those ch aracters can provide some valuable references to nowcasting convective weather o f two types of hail and shortly heavy rainfall.
    8  Variation Features of Meteorological Elements at Namco Station, Tibetan Plate au
    You Qinglong Kang Shichang Li Chaoliu Li Maoshan Liu Jingshi
    2007, 33(3):54-60. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.008
    [Abstract](786) [HTML](288) [PDF 1.03 M](902)
    According to the climatic data from an automatic weather station (AWS) and the meteorological tower at Namco Station (30°46.44′N,90°59.31′E,4730 m asl.) during July 14,2005 to July 13,2006,seasonal and diurnal variations o f air temperature,air pressure,relative humidity, precipitation,wind speed an d wind direction were analyzed. Some preliminary knowledges on climatic features of this area were obtained: The average annual temperature is 0℃,the minimum temperature appears in December and the maximum temperature in July. The annual rainfall is 281.8 mm,mainly taking place from May to October. The average annual relative h umidity is 52.6%, and the wet and dry seasons are distinct,the precipitation ha ppening at night (20:00—8:00) accounts for 78.6% of the total. The a verage annual air pressure is 571.2 hPa,the minimum pressure occurs in January and the maximum pressure in September;Mean annual wind speed is 4 m?s-1 ,the maxi mum wind speed occurs in January (6.1m?s-1),there are strong winds in the afternoo n and weak winds in the morning. The annual gale days are 53 d,and 36% of it ha ppens in January. The dominant wind direction is from SE to S(135°-270°),wi nd cycle between the land and lake area is remarkable in summer.
    9  Analysis of Anomaly Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Flood Season i n the Midlower Reaches of theYangtze River
    Zhang Wen Shou Shaowen Yang Jinhu
    2007, 33(3):61-67. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.009
    [Abstract](780) [HTML](95) [PDF 1.75 M](1035)
    By using the 1960—2004 flood season (from May to September) daily prec ipitation data of 87 stations in six provinces and one city in the midlower re aches of theYangtze River, with EOF, REOF, tendency analysis and Morlet wavelet a nalysis, it is analyzed that the annual extreme precipitation of various station s and its spatial distribution for the recent 45 years. The results show that th e average spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation display clear differences in flood season in the region. The consistently abnormal characteris tic i s the main spatial distribution mode of extreme precipitation in flood season in the region, and it is also the important mode that the south and the north are as are reverse change feature. The extreme precipitation of flood season is divi ded into four spatial distribution types, i.e., the two lakes and plain type, th e northern type, the coastland type and the southern type. The difference of the interannual change is clear in every subarea and from the longrange change te ndency to see, except the northeast of the region, the extreme precipitation sho ws increasing tendency. For the recent 45 years, the periodic oscillations of th e extreme precipitation are not well consistent in every distribution type.
    10  Reason for Extreme High Temperature in Zhengzhou, Henan Province
    He Zhe Li Ping Qiao Chungui Wang Rui Liang Yu Gu Xiujie
    2007, 33(3):68-75. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.010
    [Abstract](1006) [HTML](555) [PDF 3.06 M](905)
    The extremely high temperature(≥40℃) that occurred in Zhengzhou duri ng 22—23, June 2005 is analyzed by utilizing the 1°×1°grided data of NCEP/NC A R. The results show that the Hetao high is an important synoptic system that cau sed the extreme hot weather in Zhengzhou and even the western part of the Huang- Huai region. The generation of the Hetao high is concerned with the warm advecti on at various levels. The appearance of the extremely high temperature is also r elated to the upper level subtropical jet stream. The strong descending air flow in the southeastern part of the Hetao high is caused by both thermodynamic and dynamic factors. That is, when the southeastern part of Hetao high lies in the l eft side of entrance region of the upper level subtropical jet stream, dynamic c onvergence makes the descending movement of air flow in this region more powerful. The consequential clear radiation heating and adiabatic warming because of ai r sinking benefit the occurrence of extremely high temperature. In addition, the foehn effect generated by topography can be of a role of intensifying the extre me high temperature.
    11  Application of GRAPES Model to Arearainfall Forecast in  the Huaihe River Basin
    Zhu Hongfang Wang Dongyong Zhu Pengfei Zhou Kun
    2007, 33(3):76-82. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.011
    [Abstract](676) [HTML](100) [PDF 1.41 M](942)
    The Huaihe River Basin arearainfall forecast, produced by using the output pre cipitation forecast of the new generation NWP model—GRAPES, is introduced. The t estification with the observation and forecast of forecaster is also made. The co mparison analysis between the two methods and discussions is focused on two per iods when the heavy rainfall led to severe floods in the Huaihe River Basin. One of the periods is from 4 to 11 July 2005, the other from 27 July to 4 August, 2 005. Furthermore, the research on the verification with the observation from rai n gauges is also described. The results show that the GRAPES output precipitatio n forecast is suitable and efficient for making the basin arearainfall for ecast. And by using the high resolution rain gauges data, it is propitious to improve the precision of assessing the basin arearainfall.
    12  Study on the Meteorologicallydriven Ecological Monitoring and Assess ment of High Temperature and Drought of SichuanChongqing Area in Summer 2006
    Mao Liuxi Qian Shuan Hou Yingyu Li Chaosheng
    2007, 33(3):83-88. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.012
    [Abstract](649) [HTML](76) [PDF 64.36 M](3609)
    In order to monitor and evaluate objectively the impact of rare high t emperature and drought on meteorologicallydriven ecological environment occurr ing in SichuanChongqing area in summer 2006.The meteorologicallydriven ecolo gical assessment index (EMI) model which was established based on the estimate o f the net primary productivity (NPP) was used to calculate the EMI and its rank . The results show that the ecological and meteorological conditions were worse than the perennial summer in the region of Sichuan and Chongqing, and the EMI ra nk was worse or very worse in 33% areas of Sichuan Province and 43% areas of Cho ngqing City. The worse area of EMI of Sichuan and Chongqing in June and August w a s larger than that in July. In different ecosystems, the EMI of city and town wa s very worse, and the EMI of cropland and grass and shrub land was obviously wo rse, but the EMI of woodland was nearly normal. The ecological effect of drought is reversible, and it can be restored after the weather condition improved the ecosystems service function. Therefore the effective measures should be adopted to restore the ecosystem service functions and to decrease greatly the various o f the loss.
    13  Evaluation of Socioeconomic Benefit on Olympic Weather  Service: a Case Study
    Luo Hui Xie Pu Yu Xiaoding
    2007, 33(3):89-94. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.013
    [Abstract](773) [HTML](90) [PDF 517.51 K](1114)
    It is very important to have scientifically and quantitatively socioeco nomic impact studies during 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Olympic trial meanwhi le, it is a weakness at present. Based on reviews of relative literatures, it integrates the s ocial survey and depth interview with VIP customers like BOCOG (Beijing Organization Committee of Olympic Games) and so on bycombining with qualitative and qua ntitative methods. It constructs customer's satisfaction indices, which includes eight multiitems to measure the satisfaction degree of fixed customer group, i.e. realizing and meeting the needs of BOCOG, time and efficient of weather s ervice, social benefit judgment by customers, customer's meteorological manual and dissemination approaches, meteorologist's ability, forecast ac curacy of different meteorological factors, future choice after competitions an d comprehensive impression on meteorological sections etc. It is the first time to put forward the Customer Satisfaction Index of Weather Service (CSIWS). Taking 2006 women's fast pitch world championship as a case study, some quantitatively results are measured. They show that customers satisfy with comprehensive impres sion and endeavors of meteorological bureau. Some disadvantages show that we sho uld try our best to lead and exploit customers' needs, produce various customers' manual and genera l public's weather guidebooks, to improve the hit rate of our official meteorolo gical websites of OG.
    14  Causation analysis of DryHot Wind Formation in Hebei  Province Winter Wheat Region
    You Fengchun Hao Li sheng Shi Yinshan Duan Sulian Kong Fanchao
    2007, 33(3):95-100. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.014
    [Abstract](562) [HTML](78) [PDF 605.40 K](1002)
    Based on daily precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction and 500hPa height data during 10,May to 10,June from 1971 to 2005, by using trend analysis ,wavelet analysis, slidingt test and othe r met hods, the temporalspatial distribution,change period, abrupt change and other f eature of dryhot wind are analyzed in Hebei province winter wheat region durin g recent 35 years.The results indicate that annual average days of light dryho t wind are consistent with those of the severe; but the period and interannual v ariabilit y between the light and the severe dryhot wind are different. In addition, the number of annual days of the dryhot wind is related with temperature, prec i pitation and 500hPa circulation pattern at same time.These results set up a foun dation to forecast later dryhot wind.
    15  Comparison of Estimation of Wind Speed ExtremeI Distribution Parameters in G uangdong Province
    Huang Haohui Song Lili Zhi Shiqun Liu Aijun
    2007, 33(3):101-106. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.015
    [Abstract](695) [HTML](282) [PDF 383.63 K](939)
    On the basis of the series of annual maximum wind velocity at 86 natio nal weather stations in Guangdong Province from 1951 to 2003, the return periods of annual maximum wind velocity of every station are calculated with the functi on of extremeI using three methods of estimation of parameters, i.e., squares method, Gumbel's method and the method of maximum likelihood. The fitting result s show that Gumbel's method is the best in most cases, even in the case that the squares method or the method of maximum likelihood seems better and its choicene ss index is closer to that of the best method.
    16  Change of Extreme Weather Events in Hainan Island for Last 39 Years
    Yang Fuzhen Wu Sheng’an
    2007, 33(3):107-113. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.016
    [Abstract](1082) [HTML](188) [PDF 2.17 M](945)
    Based on the data of annual gale days, rainstorm, thunderstorm, hail, high/low temperature, fog, and frost in the Hainan Island from 1966 to 2004, the variation characters are diagnosed using the least squares method, MannKendal l method and Morlet Wavelet method. The results show that annual gale days, and d ays for fog and thunderstorm weather decreased notably, especially in 1992, 1984 -1985 and 1983-1984. Annual high temperature day, and days of rainstorm weather increased, while days of low temperature, hail, frost decreased slightly. Annual hail and frost days are stable. High temperature and thunderstorm weather days are in the high and middle frequency stage, while the other extreme weather appe ars in low, middle and longrange frequency period besides stage periods. The v ariational period of annual hail days turns to short. And the periods of annual d ays of the other extreme events prolonged. It indicates that the extreme weather events in the Hainan Island have relationship with the global warming.
    17  Development of a MODIS Snow Remote Sensing Monitoring System
    Fu Hua Sha Yiran Huang Zhen Li Cong Wang Lei
    2007, 33(3):114-118. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.03.017
    [Abstract](627) [HTML](118) [PDF 6.11 M](1029)
    On the basis of the mathematical model and Bayes distinction principle, with the objectoriented method of exploitation, under the Windows 2000 operating syste ms, an EOS/MODIS snow remote sensing monitoring system is successfully developed by using the Microsoft Visual C〖JP9〗++〖JP〗. NET. With 3S technolo gy, the syste m has realized the seamless connection between various modules as well as the mu ltiplex snow identification (automatic and manmachine interaction). The system runs well, and may provide the high grade and abundant snow products for the use r.

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