ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 33,Issue 12,2007 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model  for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression
    Xu Jing Zhang Guoping Zhang Fanghua Qi Dan
    2007, 33(12):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.001
    [Abstract](737) [HTML](169) [PDF 753.66 K](934)
    Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for G eological Hazards is constructed based on Logistic regression of the probabiliti es of geological hazard occurrences. Dynamic forecasting of the probability of r ainfallinduced geological hazard occurrence is thus realized. Rainfall observa t ions and numerical rainfall forecasts are used as dynamical inputs of the model. Total information produced by information model that integrates factors of geos ciences is used as the static predictor of the model. The model forecasts probab ilities of geological hazard occurrences on a grid, and releases warning message s in the form of a 5level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observationa l data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year hav e been identified as Warning Level 3 or above. The operation of the model during the rainy season of the year 2006 has made forecasts and warnings with high acc uracy for geological hazards triggered by Typhoon Bilis. All these show that the model can satisfy the requirements of warning operations, and is an effective w ay to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.
    2  Product Development for the Operational Ensemble Prediction  System Based on Ward Analysis in China
    Jin Ronghua Tian Weihong Jiao Meiyan
    2007, 33(12):9-15. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.002
    [Abstract](504) [HTML](120) [PDF 3.07 M](709)
    In order to develop the cluster products for Chinese new generation op erational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the cluster analysis techniques for EPS used in foreign developed country are introduced, and the Ward analysis is a pplied to interpret the products of Chinese EPS. The case study for operational application capacity of Chinese EPS cluster products indicates that the Ward ana lysis can classify the circulation situation efficiently, and the cluster produc ts are very helpful and convenient for the weather forecaster to make use of the EPS information.
    3  Application of the Groundbased GPS/PW Data to Investigate  the “7·10" Heavy Rainfall Event in Beijing
    Chu Yanli Guo Yinghua Zhang Chaolin Wang Yingchun
    2007, 33(12):16-22. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.003
    [Abstract](815) [HTML](52) [PDF 2.64 M](912)
    The precipitable water vapor (PW) data at 30min intervals are analyzed and ass imilated into the WRF model for the “7·10” Beijing heavy rainfall event that occurred in the period of 911 July, 2004. Observational results show that the temporal variation of the GPS/PW is an instructive factor for the analysis and p rediction of this heavy rainfall event. Using the WRF model and its 3DVar system with twoway and twonested grids of 12/4km, three 36h numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the impacts of PW with the va riation analyses at 1200 UTC of July 9 as the initial fields. Numerical experime ntal results show that the assimilation of GPS/PW observations significantly hel ps to improve the moisture analysis at the initial time, then helps  to improve forecasts of the location, intensity and evolution of this heavy rainfall event
    4  Relation Between Flood Season Precipitation Anomalies in South China an d East Asian Atmospheric Low Frequency Oscillation in 1997
    Xin Fei Xiao Ziniu Li Zechun
    2007, 33(12):23-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.004
    [Abstract](707) [HTML](104) [PDF 3.49 M](799)
    By using the daily precipitation data from CMA and NCEP reanalysis daily data, the relation between flood season precipitation anomalies in South China and E ast Asian atmospheric low frequency oscillation in 1997 was analyzed. Results s how that flood season precipitation in South China reveals different low frequen cy oscillation in preflood season and latter flood season. The preflood sea son precipitation is mainly controlled by the oscillation of 1020 days, but th e relation between latter flood season precipitation and low frequency oscillati on is not very clear. The further study shows that the preflood season precipi tation in South China obviously connects withlow frequency oscillation of west wind and the precipitation substantially agree s with the low frequency oscillation of wind. Meanwhile, one reason of the heav y rain may be the transfer of wind from high and low latitude to South China dur ing this period. Besides, another reason of the heavy rain may be that the kinet ic energy perturbation is released concentrically in South China.
    5  Mesoscale Structure and Evolution of the Lowlevel Jet and Its  Relationship with the Heavy Rainfall During a Torrential Rain Process
    Jin Wei Qu Yan Yao Xiuping Huang Suwen
    2007, 33(12):31-38. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.005
    [Abstract](938) [HTML](99) [PDF 2.10 M](1009)
    Using the data of the wind profile delivered every six minutes by the new genera tion of weather radar of Yingkou,the detailed analysis is made for the lowlev el wind field structure duringthe heavy rain periods of torrential rains on 29 June 2006 in the w est of Liaoning Province. The conclusion is as follows: The incidence of the heavy rain is corresponding to the rapid strengthening of l owlevel jet and its downward expansion. The southwest lowlevel jet in advan ce of two hours before the shortterm heavy rain starts to move downward rapidl y . The fluctuation in the low level and its degree of expansion towards the grou nd has a close relation to the strong shortterm rainfall. The lowlevel jet w ill not certainly immediately cause a strong rainfall when it arrives at the sta tion,sometimes this process will be delayed one or two hours. The emergence of the strong rainfall or the strong weather has definite momentum transmission. It strengthens the lowlevel disturbance and the strength of lowlevel jet. The extended height and the magnitude of the momentum transmission restrict directly the strength of the strong rainfall. The degree of increase in the lowlevel j et index (I) and the intensity of rainfall has a direct proportional relationsh ip. Index (I) not only indicates that the fluctuation of lowlevel jet and the intensity of ground expansion have a close relationship with the strong rainfall of meso scale,but also indicates the occurrence of strong rainfall a nd the magnitude of rainfall intensity.
    6  Wavelet Analysis of Variation of Rainstorm Days in Guangxi in Recent 50 Years
    Liao Xueping Qin Weijian Tang Bingli Qiu Pingzhu
    2007, 33(12):39-45. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.006
    [Abstract](885) [HTML](76) [PDF 908.21 K](995)
    Based on the analysis of interannual variation of rainstorm and heavy rainstor m days in Guangxi from 1951 to 2005 with the Morlet wavelet method, it shows tha t both exist significant periodic oscillations, with strong 2, 4, 8,14ye ar periods and 2year period as the strongest. Moreover, the distributions of t he frequencies and intensities are so different that the shortperiod oscillati ons are stronger than the longer ones. The rainstorm days in Guangxi exhibit an increasing tendency on a longterm basis. There are four main synoptic systems that influence the occurrence of Guangxi rainstorm: tropical cyclone, southwest vortex, lowlevel jet and uppertroposphere trough, and the main influencing s ystem contributing to the excessive rainstorm in Guangxi is tropical cyclone and southwest vortex.
    7  A Numerical Simulation Study on the Hailstorm in Guangxi
    Zou Guangyuan
    2007, 33(12):46-52. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.007
    [Abstract](537) [HTML](52) [PDF 773.07 K](716)
    The hailstorm process in the northwest Guangxi is simulated with 3D convective cloud model. The results show that the model is capable to simulat e the case to some extent. A series of seeding experiments indicate that the cum ulus cloud has some potential to be artificially modified. Effect can be optimiz ed by proper seeding at the base of the supercooled water area as natural crys t al concentration is still at a low level. Seeding may somewhat cause the rainfal l enhancement as well as the hail suppression. Meanwhile over seeding may lead t o the rainfall decrease as well as the hail suppression.
    8  Effect of Different Verification Schemes on Precipitation Veri fication and Assessment Conclusion
    Wang Yu Yan Zhihui
    2007, 33(12):53-61. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.008
    [Abstract](760) [HTML](206) [PDF 505.16 K](947)
    Multitudinous precipitation predictions are verified and assessed during July an d August 2005. These products include the forecast of forecasters in Central Meteorologi cal Office and NWP models, such as T213l31, HLAFS25, MM5, MESOGRAPES 60km and 30km model,WRF20km, as well as Japanese and German global model outputs. Differ ent kinds of rainfall verification schemes and statistical verification variable s are used. The results show that the verification conclusions of different veri fication schemes on 8 kinds of NWP models and forecaster’s rainfall prediction from light rain to heavy rain are near each other, whereas there are obvious dif ferences on observation stations distribution between dense verification and sta ndard verification. TS of dense verification system is lower than that of standa rd verification system. But for torrential rain and severe rain, bias of two ver ification systems are obviously different. The reason is that most of the weathe r systems resulting in torrential rain are mesoscale or microscale weather s ystems, their frequency is similar with dense verification observation. For whole country, ETS is less than TS for the rainfall under heavy rain, and is near for the rainfall over torrential rain. However, the sort of verification r esults on ETS for kinds of models is similar with TS or SS score except for ligh t rain. Not only for dense verification, but also for standard verification, the best product of all verified forecasts is the same for all classes. If the area is the same, but the forecasts are different, the differences between dense ver ification and standard verification are different. For T213L31 model, the dense verification biases of some areas for torrential rain are obviously different fr om standard verification, but for forecaster’s prediction, the results of two v erification systems are similar.
    9  Case Analysis of Precipitable Water and Cloud Liquid Water  Measured by DualFrequency Microwave Radiometer
    Li Tielin Liu Jinhua Liu Yanhua Zhang Yunping Zheng Hongwei Ma Xinxin
    2007, 33(12):62-68. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.009
    [Abstract](636) [HTML](55) [PDF 23.91 M](740)
    By using the data from the groundbased dualfrequency microwave radio meter of 23.8 and 31.65 GHz, satellite cloud picture, the data from weather rada r, radiosounding and selfrecording rain gauge, analyzed was the evolution of a t mospheric integrated precipitable water (V) and cloud liquid water content ( L) o btained in different cloud conditions in April of 2005 in Xingxiang, Henan. Spe cial analysis was focused on the effect of low trough cloud system on April 8. T he results showed that the radiometer is sensible to the water vapor and liquid water in clouds, and different V and L correspond to different weather b ackgroun d. The variation in L is related to the increasing or decreasing of cloud wa ter content. There is an obvious fluctuation in L before rain and increase sig nifica ntly during rain. Generally when L reaches 0.4 mm, the precipitation happen s. This reveals that cloud is developing and will rain. In addition, the relations hip among the three kinds of atmospheric water, i.e., precipitable water, cloud water and precipitating water, was analyzed based on the observation data. The results showed the ratio of L and V is 0.0087, whereas the rainfall amou nt is only 18% of precipitable water.
    10  Short-range Forecast of the Conditions of Artificial Precipitation  Enhancement from Stratiform Cloud and Wave Cloud in Henan Province
    He Zhe Liu Jinhua Bu Yalin
    2007, 33(12):69-74. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.010
    [Abstract](451) [HTML](128) [PDF 627.17 K](740)
    The analysis of precipitation and cloud form in spring and autumn in Henan Province shows that the rainfall in these two seasons is mostly generated from s tratiform cloud and wave cloud. So the method of precipitation classification fo recast for subregions in Henan Province can be used to ascertain the time and region that are fit for artificial precipitation enhancement by aircraft. By usi ng the products from NWP model T213 and successive regression, predictive equati ons for precipitation classification forecast in different subregions are set up. In addition, a postprocessing method is used to improve the forecast of th e subregion which is of low accuracy. The results show that this method can be a guidance for artificial precipitation enhancement.
    11  Evaluation of Results of Station Intercomparison with Blind Samples  in Acid Rain Monitoring Network in China
    Tang Jie Cheng Hongbing Yu Xiaolan Wang Shufeng Yao Ping Lv Bo Xu Xiaobin Ding Guoan
    2007, 33(12):75-82. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.011
    [Abstract](981) [HTML](80) [PDF 742.94 K](1009)
    The results of interstation comparison of 7 pH measurements and two conductanc e measurements of blind samples from the Acid Rain Monitoring Network of China M eteorologicalAdministration (ARMN/CMA) since 1992 are presented. The diluted and pH modulat ed buffer solution was used as blind samples to prevent the changes during the t ransportation. The standard deviations of reported pH values were below 0.2 pH u nits, and its correlation with pH value of the sample was not significant. Stati stics showed the significant improvements of the error level of pH measurement o f blind samples corresponding to the system upgrading/quality control activities , such as the instrument renewal, personal training, and the enforcement of new technical regulation. Statistics also showed that bias of pH measurement of smal l part of stations with poor technical condition was featured with a relatively large negative value. To evaluate overall precision for both pH and cond uctance measurements of ARMN /CMA, Modified Median Absolute Difference (M.MAD) were cal culated according to the WMO recommended method. The M.MAD of pH measurement was in a range of 0.03~0.10 pH units, and that of conductance in 4%~5%.
    12  Vulnerability Analysis and Zoning of Lightning Disaste r in Yunnan Province
    Wang Hui Deng Yong Yin Liyun Xu Yingjie Jing Yuanshu
    2007, 33(12):83-87. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.012
    [Abstract](558) [HTML](219) [PDF 657.46 K](806)
    The number of annual average thunderday of 124 meteorological statio ns in Yu nnan Province from 1971 to 2005 and the data of lightning disaster form 2001 to 2005 were collected. Lightning disaster was systematically analyzed in view of vulnerability. Lightning striking density, lightning disaster frequency, econ omic vulnerability indices and life vulnerability indices exposed to lightning d isaster were calculated. After comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of lightning, the vulnerability zoning in Yunnan Province was also concluded. The r esult showed that the lightning occurrence and induced losses is not only relate d to the geographical position, atmospheric environment, but also to the populat ion density and economic development situation. The given zoning provides some o bjective references for lightning prevention, disaster mitigation and taking eff ective measures.
    13  GIS-based Assessment of Thermal Resources in the Sanjiang Plain
    Yu Hongmin Wang Bo Guo Shiyou Liu Chunsheng
    2007, 33(12):88-92. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.013
    [Abstract](539) [HTML](137) [PDF 45.38 M](589)
    Applying GIS technology, surface air temperature data of 80 meteorological stati ons in Heilongjiang Province, 16 agricultural and forestry stations in Sanjiang Plain, and DEM data, a statistical model of thermal resource indices with latitu de, longitude and elevation as independent variables was constructed. The trend surface analysis and liner interpolation methods were used to calcula te and correct the thermal resource indices values. The results show that latitu de and elevation factors have significant effect on the thermal resource distrib ution, and longitude factor merely affects air temperature of warm season and ac cumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃. Thermal resources are generally rich in the plain areas, and poor in the western and southern mountainous areas.
    14  On Field Calibration Method for Automatic Meteorlogical Station
    Luo Qi Ren Zhihua Zou Shufeng Fang Yansong Lv Hongmei Liu Bin
    2007, 33(12):93-97. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.014
    [Abstract](754) [HTML](75) [PDF 364.52 K](1072)
    The periodical calibration of various meteorological sensors of AWS is very important in order to ensure accuracy, reliability and comparability on th e measuring value. The scene calibration of AWS is different with the laboratory examination. The calibration result has been the obvious uncertainty by the imp act of the objective condition. To ensure accurate and reliable value of a quant ity transfer, the improvement method is proposed so as to reduce misjudgment of calibration results. Based on calibration data in Shandong province from 2004 to 2006, the tendency of calibration error is analyzed with two methods of convent ion and improvement. The results show that calibration errors of temperature, hu midity and pressure sensor have been decreased 0.1℃, 1% and 0.2hPa, respect ivly and the ultra error quantity of ground temperature sensor is dropped from 2 3.6% to 5.2% with new method. In a word, the improvement method can rednce the i mpacts of natural enviroment on calibration results, it can avoid to replace sen sors blindly, so it makes up conventional method.
    15  Development of Realtime Reception and Display  Techniques for Satellite Images
    Zhang Xi
    2007, 33(12):98-102. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.015
    [Abstract](539) [HTML](69) [PDF 47.91 M](558)
    In order to quickly and conveniently receive and analyze the satellite images in real time, the master interface software for satellite images real-ti me reception and analyses was developed in image subsystem of running control sy stem. The software was developed by UNIX platform, X-Window, Motif, IRIS GL and C program on SGI workstation. The satellite images were received through contro l interface and options. Moreover the images transmitted through disks or tapes were displayed, processed and qualitatively analyzed by options such as “replay ”, “grid”, “line”, “samelola” and “display_manam”. And the software has been applied in the actual processing of meteorological satellite data.
    16  Updated Software of Geostationary Satellite Image Processing System
    Zheng Yongguang Chen Jiong Zhu Peijun
    2007, 33(12):103-109. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.016
    [Abstract](707) [HTML](234) [PDF 1.41 M](1308)
    Cloud imagery obtained by geostationary satellites plays an important role in the meteorological research. “Software of Geostationary Satellite Image Processing” on Windows can implement the research with great efficiency and sp eed. Due to the geostationary satellites updated, the old “Software of Geostati onary Satellite Image Processing” cannot read the data observed by the new sate llites. In this paper, the new data interface and functions of this software are introduced. The new data that can be processed by this software include multi-t ypes of satellite data transferred by 9210 communication project, “GPF (Geostat ionarysatellite Project File)” files, “HDF5” files, GMS5, GOES9 and MTS AT 1R data stored in Peking University. The new functions are as follows: animation of satellite images, channel switch, objective analysis and diagnosis for conventional data, contour maps, streamline maps, grid vector maps, display of enhanced satellite images, calculation between two channels, TBB/albedo contour maps, statistics of TBB, and conversion of the different format satellite files.
    17  A Municipal Level’s Decision System of Weather Modification
    Wei Huijuan Cui Xinjian Yang Guofeng Wan Jing Zhang Junbo Yuan Chunfeng
    2007, 33(12):110-115. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.017
    [Abstract](677) [HTML](59) [PDF 30.56 M](613)
    Based on the character of geography and climate in Zhumadian, an advanced munici pal level’s decision system of weather modification is built up.It includes fi ve subsystems and twenty sub modules, which cover almost all the basic informa tion of weather modification. The system offers an intelligent and automatic op eration technique platform for municipal level’s weather modification.
    18  Development of a Comprehensive Analysis and Process System Based on ArcGIS
    Huang Yimei Chen Yue Zhou Yuquan Zhang Qiang Shi Aili
    2007, 33(12):116-120. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.12.018
    [Abstract](2026) [HTML](138) [PDF 30.54 M](11911)
    A comprehensive analysis and process system based on ArcGIS, and its chief targ et, its software frame, standardized data, database system, basic functions and its key technique, etc. are are described. The system is professional especially to weather modification, and it mainly applies to comprehensive analysis and pr ocess for weather modification, decision-making of operation schemes, appraisal of operation effectiveness, and services for enhancement precipitation or suppre ssion hail by ways of cannons or rocks, etc. In this system, information collect ion, analysis, management and comprehensive application of the weather modificat ion are realized. It also can be used in other fields in meteorology.

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