ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 32,Issue 6,2006 Table of Contents
2006, 32(6):3-12.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.001
Abstract:
The impacts of aerosol physical characteristics, concentration and size spectrum on could microphysics processes are introduced. An assessment of characteristics of some parameterization schemes of aerosol microphysical processes such as bulk-parameterization of microphysics and bin-parameterization of microphysics is also given. It put forward some important problems of parameterization schemes and identified research areas in which improvements are urgently needed. According what will be studied, it suggests modelers to choosing appropriate parameterization scheme to simulate the aerosol effects on microphysics processes of cloud.
The impacts of aerosol physical characteristics, concentration and size spectrum on could microphysics processes are introduced. An assessment of characteristics of some parameterization schemes of aerosol microphysical processes such as bulk-parameterization of microphysics and bin-parameterization of microphysics is also given. It put forward some important problems of parameterization schemes and identified research areas in which improvements are urgently needed. According what will be studied, it suggests modelers to choosing appropriate parameterization scheme to simulate the aerosol effects on microphysics processes of cloud.
2006, 32(6):13-19.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.002
Abstract:
Based on the KOUN radar measurements, a classification model to identify the hail area and its application in operation are discussed. The results indicate that the model classifying result used dual-linear polarimetric radar observations is reasonable, it could retrieve not only the main shapes of realistic hails distribution but also the different types of hails, and the results have a good consistency with the true process of the convective systems. It is useful in operational works for the identification of hail areas and weather modification.
Based on the KOUN radar measurements, a classification model to identify the hail area and its application in operation are discussed. The results indicate that the model classifying result used dual-linear polarimetric radar observations is reasonable, it could retrieve not only the main shapes of realistic hails distribution but also the different types of hails, and the results have a good consistency with the true process of the convective systems. It is useful in operational works for the identification of hail areas and weather modification.
2006, 32(6):20-24.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.003
Abstract:
By using 37 CINRAD complete wind profile data and sounding data in 2002—2005, the correlation analysis is made. The result shows that there is a good relativity between radar wind profile data and sounding data. Frequency of correlation coefficient in wind direction R≥0.6 is 78%, R≥0.8 is 60%. Frequency of correlation coefficient in wind velocity R≥0.6 is 81%, R≥0.8 is 57%. With the high increment, the relativity in wind direction is lower, but that in wind velocity don′t change obviously.
By using 37 CINRAD complete wind profile data and sounding data in 2002—2005, the correlation analysis is made. The result shows that there is a good relativity between radar wind profile data and sounding data. Frequency of correlation coefficient in wind direction R≥0.6 is 78%, R≥0.8 is 60%. Frequency of correlation coefficient in wind velocity R≥0.6 is 81%, R≥0.8 is 57%. With the high increment, the relativity in wind direction is lower, but that in wind velocity don′t change obviously.
2006, 32(6):25-30.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.004
Abstract:
Based on some routine observation when a regional storm rain in Jinzhong, Shanxi Province during 26—27 July 2001, the application of quasi-geostrophic Q- and wet-Q-vector are made. The analysis shows that (1) the quasi-geostrophic Q-vector is a good indicator for the heavy rain forecast specially at 700hPa level in the beginning stage of the rainfall, while the wet-Q-vector has a good diagnostic property on each level. (2) The distribution of Q-vector frontogenesis function has typical quasi-geostropic characteristic, but wet-Q-vector ones has apparent mesoscale characteristic. So quasi-geostropic Q-vector adapt to study of atmospheric motion associated with synoptic scale system,and wet-Q-vector adapt to the secondary circulation triggered by synoptic scale system.
Based on some routine observation when a regional storm rain in Jinzhong, Shanxi Province during 26—27 July 2001, the application of quasi-geostrophic Q- and wet-Q-vector are made. The analysis shows that (1) the quasi-geostrophic Q-vector is a good indicator for the heavy rain forecast specially at 700hPa level in the beginning stage of the rainfall, while the wet-Q-vector has a good diagnostic property on each level. (2) The distribution of Q-vector frontogenesis function has typical quasi-geostropic characteristic, but wet-Q-vector ones has apparent mesoscale characteristic. So quasi-geostropic Q-vector adapt to study of atmospheric motion associated with synoptic scale system,and wet-Q-vector adapt to the secondary circulation triggered by synoptic scale system.
2006, 32(6):31-36.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.005
Abstract:
The effects of the climatic changes on eco-environmental evolution are studied by using of the temperature and precipitation data at 4 typical stations from 1951 to 2004. The results show that (1)For the recent 54 year, the temperature rises notably in eastern region. The precipitation fluctuation is great and takes on a large increase trend, but the trend is not notable and in the range of climatic fluctuation. The precipitation is decreases since 1998 and has periodicity change of 11-year and 22-year. (2) Either the temperature or the precipitation is in high climatic essential state and climatic variability period at present, so the extreme climatic events increase. The climate becomes dry and warm, and its variability increases to intensify the extent of drought damage in eastern Inner Mongolia. Therefore, a series of eco-environmental problems is caused. For example, the area of the wetland will reduce, the grassland will degenerate and so on. (3) The results from the satellite remote data of the demonstration region reveal that the increase of stationary sands area illustrates the whole Horqin Sands improves benignly in the ecological aspect. But the increase of all kinds of sands class shows that the extent of cracked sands intensifies and local desert worsens in the present climatic condition.
The effects of the climatic changes on eco-environmental evolution are studied by using of the temperature and precipitation data at 4 typical stations from 1951 to 2004. The results show that (1)For the recent 54 year, the temperature rises notably in eastern region. The precipitation fluctuation is great and takes on a large increase trend, but the trend is not notable and in the range of climatic fluctuation. The precipitation is decreases since 1998 and has periodicity change of 11-year and 22-year. (2) Either the temperature or the precipitation is in high climatic essential state and climatic variability period at present, so the extreme climatic events increase. The climate becomes dry and warm, and its variability increases to intensify the extent of drought damage in eastern Inner Mongolia. Therefore, a series of eco-environmental problems is caused. For example, the area of the wetland will reduce, the grassland will degenerate and so on. (3) The results from the satellite remote data of the demonstration region reveal that the increase of stationary sands area illustrates the whole Horqin Sands improves benignly in the ecological aspect. But the increase of all kinds of sands class shows that the extent of cracked sands intensifies and local desert worsens in the present climatic condition.
2006, 32(6):37-43.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.06.006
Abstract:
Typhoon Haitang, Talim and Longwang Land on Fujian again after they landed on Taiwan Island in 2005. The tracks of Haitang and Talim appeared revolver and stagnation when they were landing on Taiwan Island. An analysis of the abnormal track is made, based on the routine data combined with the physical field. It is found that the abnormal tracks are closely related with the subtropical high ,the southwesterly wind in the south side of the typhoon,the cold air and the physical field beside the topography of Taiwan.
Typhoon Haitang, Talim and Longwang Land on Fujian again after they landed on Taiwan Island in 2005. The tracks of Haitang and Talim appeared revolver and stagnation when they were landing on Taiwan Island. An analysis of the abnormal track is made, based on the routine data combined with the physical field. It is found that the abnormal tracks are closely related with the subtropical high ,the southwesterly wind in the south side of the typhoon,the cold air and the physical field beside the topography of Taiwan.
2006, 32(6):44-47.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.007
Abstract:
Using Mann-Kendall jump test and moving t-test, the temperature change features in China in recent 55 years are analysed based on the data of monthly mean air temperature from 160 stations in 1951—2003, with a focus on the analysis of the regional and seasonal features of abrupt temperature change. It is found that (1) since the 1950′s the cooling regions became smaller and the trend weaker;(2)the sudden changes are observed in Northeast China and North China in the last 1980′s;(3)the jump change in winter was earlier than the other seasons in the same area.
Using Mann-Kendall jump test and moving t-test, the temperature change features in China in recent 55 years are analysed based on the data of monthly mean air temperature from 160 stations in 1951—2003, with a focus on the analysis of the regional and seasonal features of abrupt temperature change. It is found that (1) since the 1950′s the cooling regions became smaller and the trend weaker;(2)the sudden changes are observed in Northeast China and North China in the last 1980′s;(3)the jump change in winter was earlier than the other seasons in the same area.
2006, 32(6):48-52.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.008
Abstract:
Based on 63 stations summer rainfall data in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2005,the spatial-temporal characteristics of summer precipitation are analyzed with EOF and REOF. The results show that summer precipitation distribution in Jiangsu province can be divided into several categories and each category has obvious decadel change, and the regional drought/flood years increase clearly from 1990s.
Based on 63 stations summer rainfall data in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2005,the spatial-temporal characteristics of summer precipitation are analyzed with EOF and REOF. The results show that summer precipitation distribution in Jiangsu province can be divided into several categories and each category has obvious decadel change, and the regional drought/flood years increase clearly from 1990s.
2006, 32(6):53-58.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.009
Abstract:
The observation monitoring and evaluating system in NMC/CMA is described. This system includes the function of data processing, data quality control, bias statistics and analysis, products releases etc. The complex quality control and advanced evaluation technique are adopted. As an operational system, some observation problems are found and have been improved. The products also were used in verification of the bias correction scheme for 59 radiosonde and in the quality analyses for L-band digital radiosonde. A great contribution was made by the system on the management of observation operational, the improvement of observation quality and the application of observation data.
The observation monitoring and evaluating system in NMC/CMA is described. This system includes the function of data processing, data quality control, bias statistics and analysis, products releases etc. The complex quality control and advanced evaluation technique are adopted. As an operational system, some observation problems are found and have been improved. The products also were used in verification of the bias correction scheme for 59 radiosonde and in the quality analyses for L-band digital radiosonde. A great contribution was made by the system on the management of observation operational, the improvement of observation quality and the application of observation data.
2006, 32(6):59-65.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.010
Abstract:
Using meteorological data and MM5 numerical simulation, the characteristics are analyzed for two heavy rain events caused by cyclone in Shandong Province. The upper-and low- layer system, horizontal and vertical distribution of equivalent potential temperature, vertical motion, and divergence are studied for the two heavy rains. The results show that in cool section heavy rain occurred behind the warm and moist tongue of 850hPa, it has apparent back slantwise structure, strongly baroclinic frontal zone, and stronger dynamic conditions; but in warm section heavy rain occurred in the warm and moist tongue of 850hPa. It provides an excellent reference for forecasting heavy rain.
Using meteorological data and MM5 numerical simulation, the characteristics are analyzed for two heavy rain events caused by cyclone in Shandong Province. The upper-and low- layer system, horizontal and vertical distribution of equivalent potential temperature, vertical motion, and divergence are studied for the two heavy rains. The results show that in cool section heavy rain occurred behind the warm and moist tongue of 850hPa, it has apparent back slantwise structure, strongly baroclinic frontal zone, and stronger dynamic conditions; but in warm section heavy rain occurred in the warm and moist tongue of 850hPa. It provides an excellent reference for forecasting heavy rain.
2006, 32(6):66-70.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.011
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological data from 1960 to 2004, the relationship between high-temperature weathers(Tmax≥35℃) and tropical cyclones is statistically analyzed. The results show that (1) High-temperature weathers, especially≥36℃, have a close relationship with the exist of tropical cyclones in the area(15—35°N, 110—135°E), and the higher the temperature is, the more the probobility of severe tropical cyclones and typhoons. Only the effect of subtropical high but no tropical cyclones, it has a less chance to appear high-temperature weathers of ≥36℃, and has no appearance of high-temperature weathers of ≥37℃. (2) Tropical cyclones originated from the Northwest Pacific have an absolutely more contribution to high-temperature than that of the source from South China Sea. Whether their sources are in South China Sea or in Northwest Pacific, the ratio of appearing high-temperature weathers have a jump from tropical depression to tropical storm with the intensity, and also do so from tropical storm to severe tropical storm. (3) When high-temperature weathers appeared in July to September, the probability of exist of tropical cyclones was from 68% to 87%. High-temperature weathers related to tropical cyclones in the tropical cyclone effect area have a higher ratio of appearance in July, and the ratio of high-temperature weathers is more than 35% when severe tropical storms or typhoons exist.
Based on the meteorological data from 1960 to 2004, the relationship between high-temperature weathers(Tmax≥35℃) and tropical cyclones is statistically analyzed. The results show that (1) High-temperature weathers, especially≥36℃, have a close relationship with the exist of tropical cyclones in the area(15—35°N, 110—135°E), and the higher the temperature is, the more the probobility of severe tropical cyclones and typhoons. Only the effect of subtropical high but no tropical cyclones, it has a less chance to appear high-temperature weathers of ≥36℃, and has no appearance of high-temperature weathers of ≥37℃. (2) Tropical cyclones originated from the Northwest Pacific have an absolutely more contribution to high-temperature than that of the source from South China Sea. Whether their sources are in South China Sea or in Northwest Pacific, the ratio of appearing high-temperature weathers have a jump from tropical depression to tropical storm with the intensity, and also do so from tropical storm to severe tropical storm. (3) When high-temperature weathers appeared in July to September, the probability of exist of tropical cyclones was from 68% to 87%. High-temperature weathers related to tropical cyclones in the tropical cyclone effect area have a higher ratio of appearance in July, and the ratio of high-temperature weathers is more than 35% when severe tropical storms or typhoons exist.
2006, 32(6):71-74.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.012
Abstract:
Satellite data from April 2000 to July 2005 and Surfer software technology are used to analyze the annual variation and the characteristics of “urban heat island” of Xianyang, Shaanxi. The results show that it is feasible and efficient to utilize the remote sensing of meteorological satellite to monitor the phenomenon of urban heat island. There are obvious heat island effects at Xianyang. Spring is the strongest season of heat island effects in a year. The effect has an obvious diurnal variation. The heat island effect at the downtown business district is the strongest, and the effect is obviously affected by geographical environment, with the range of effect as large as 163—186 times of urban area of Xianyang.
Satellite data from April 2000 to July 2005 and Surfer software technology are used to analyze the annual variation and the characteristics of “urban heat island” of Xianyang, Shaanxi. The results show that it is feasible and efficient to utilize the remote sensing of meteorological satellite to monitor the phenomenon of urban heat island. There are obvious heat island effects at Xianyang. Spring is the strongest season of heat island effects in a year. The effect has an obvious diurnal variation. The heat island effect at the downtown business district is the strongest, and the effect is obviously affected by geographical environment, with the range of effect as large as 163—186 times of urban area of Xianyang.
2006, 32(6):75-78.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.013
Abstract:
To realize searching synoptic situations, a method of drawing contours is introduced, which is based on grid data of regular square matrix. Firstly, controlling points are added according to plotting rule and irregular points linked with smooth curve. Secondly, to catch equivalent points, the method of scanning in three quadrants is put forward. The result is similar to the handmade, the lines are proper and smooth, the procedure responds quickly, and there are certain reference meanings for making our own software.
To realize searching synoptic situations, a method of drawing contours is introduced, which is based on grid data of regular square matrix. Firstly, controlling points are added according to plotting rule and irregular points linked with smooth curve. Secondly, to catch equivalent points, the method of scanning in three quadrants is put forward. The result is similar to the handmade, the lines are proper and smooth, the procedure responds quickly, and there are certain reference meanings for making our own software.
2006, 32(6):79-84.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.014
Abstract:
Based on the fax image products from July 2001 to June 2005, JMH′s NWP precipitation forecast is verified by “the verification method of short-range and mid-range weather forecast”. It shows that the PC and TS of clear/rain forecast is best,the TS of light rainfall forecast is better, and the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecast is better but the forecasting rainfall is less than the observations. There is different forecast capacity under various synoptic systems. Moreover, the physical variables of JMH’s NWP products has well relationship with the heavy rain.
Based on the fax image products from July 2001 to June 2005, JMH′s NWP precipitation forecast is verified by “the verification method of short-range and mid-range weather forecast”. It shows that the PC and TS of clear/rain forecast is best,the TS of light rainfall forecast is better, and the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecast is better but the forecasting rainfall is less than the observations. There is different forecast capacity under various synoptic systems. Moreover, the physical variables of JMH’s NWP products has well relationship with the heavy rain.
2006, 32(6):85-90.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.015
Abstract:
On the basis of the Meiyu characters and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data from 1885 to 2000,The inter-annual and inter-decadal charaeteristics of Meiyu Characters were investigated in terms of harmonic analysis, maximum entropy spectrum analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis method and so on. The results show that there are prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of Meiyu characters. The tendencies of onset, end and length of Meiyu are increasing with remarkable long-term evolutions, but no evident trend for precipitation and intensity of Meiyu. There are different time scale oscillations for Meiyu characters, such as quasi-24-year,quasi-5-year and quasi-3-year periodic oscillations for onset of Meiyu and quasi-35-year,quasi-22-year,quasi-5-year′s for end of Meiyu and quasi-40-year,quasi-15-year,quasi-9-year,quasi-3-year′s for precipitation of Meiyu. South Asia high and western Pacific subtropical high are stronger in rich Meiyu years than those in poor Meiyu years over the Changjiang-Huaihe region during the Meiyu period.
On the basis of the Meiyu characters and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data from 1885 to 2000,The inter-annual and inter-decadal charaeteristics of Meiyu Characters were investigated in terms of harmonic analysis, maximum entropy spectrum analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis method and so on. The results show that there are prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of Meiyu characters. The tendencies of onset, end and length of Meiyu are increasing with remarkable long-term evolutions, but no evident trend for precipitation and intensity of Meiyu. There are different time scale oscillations for Meiyu characters, such as quasi-24-year,quasi-5-year and quasi-3-year periodic oscillations for onset of Meiyu and quasi-35-year,quasi-22-year,quasi-5-year′s for end of Meiyu and quasi-40-year,quasi-15-year,quasi-9-year,quasi-3-year′s for precipitation of Meiyu. South Asia high and western Pacific subtropical high are stronger in rich Meiyu years than those in poor Meiyu years over the Changjiang-Huaihe region during the Meiyu period.
2006, 32(6):91-96.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.016
Abstract:
In the late spring and early summer of 2005, Yunnan encountered weather with high temperature and drought, which is the worst in the recent 55 years. After the diagnostic analysis of convection and moisture in Southeast Asia, it was found that there is positive correlation between onset of summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula and establishment of rainy season of Yunnan province;If moisture transportation from Bay of Bengal is strong(weak) and convective activity around Sumatra island is active(non-active), establishment of rainy season of Yunnan is early(late).In 2005,the main causes of early summer drought of Yunnan are: The onset of summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula is later;Meridional moisture transportation from Bay of Bengal and convective activity around Sumatra island are weaker.
In the late spring and early summer of 2005, Yunnan encountered weather with high temperature and drought, which is the worst in the recent 55 years. After the diagnostic analysis of convection and moisture in Southeast Asia, it was found that there is positive correlation between onset of summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula and establishment of rainy season of Yunnan province;If moisture transportation from Bay of Bengal is strong(weak) and convective activity around Sumatra island is active(non-active), establishment of rainy season of Yunnan is early(late).In 2005,the main causes of early summer drought of Yunnan are: The onset of summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula is later;Meridional moisture transportation from Bay of Bengal and convective activity around Sumatra island are weaker.
2006, 32(6):97-101.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.017
Abstract:
A supercell storm is analyzed with the Guangzhou Doppler Weather Radar data. The storm occurred on 1 July, 2004 in Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province. There were two outflows lying to the southwest and southeast of the hook echo, respectively. The corresponding low to middle levels radial velocity maps showed a mesocyclone, with rotation velocity about 12m·s-1. It was a right moving supercell storm moving to the right of the mean wind by 30°.
A supercell storm is analyzed with the Guangzhou Doppler Weather Radar data. The storm occurred on 1 July, 2004 in Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province. There were two outflows lying to the southwest and southeast of the hook echo, respectively. The corresponding low to middle levels radial velocity maps showed a mesocyclone, with rotation velocity about 12m·s-1. It was a right moving supercell storm moving to the right of the mean wind by 30°.
2006, 32(6):102-106.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.018
Abstract:
By analyzing high spatial and temporal resolution data of wind profile radar provided by Hong Kong Observatory, a thorough study of the heavy rainfall from 19 to 20 August 2005 in Shenzhen is conducted. It is proved that the hourly wind field derived from wind profile radar data could reveal the correspondence between the occurring of every heavy rain and the rapid strengthening and downward expanding of the southwest jet stream. The low-level jet stream index I illustrates a close relation between the extent of downward expanding of low-level jet stream and the meso-micro scale precipitation. This index is therefore significant for forecasting magnitude and intense of heavy precipitation.
By analyzing high spatial and temporal resolution data of wind profile radar provided by Hong Kong Observatory, a thorough study of the heavy rainfall from 19 to 20 August 2005 in Shenzhen is conducted. It is proved that the hourly wind field derived from wind profile radar data could reveal the correspondence between the occurring of every heavy rain and the rapid strengthening and downward expanding of the southwest jet stream. The low-level jet stream index I illustrates a close relation between the extent of downward expanding of low-level jet stream and the meso-micro scale precipitation. This index is therefore significant for forecasting magnitude and intense of heavy precipitation.
2006, 32(6):107-110.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.019
Abstract:
The merit of SVG displaying map information and the thought for constructing vector map based on the graphical spatial data form MICAPS were introduced. The SVG technical project on the graphic service for tropical cyclone information was put forward. The study concludes that the use of SVG can greatly improve visual extent of meteorological information production and data information share.
The merit of SVG displaying map information and the thought for constructing vector map based on the graphical spatial data form MICAPS were introduced. The SVG technical project on the graphic service for tropical cyclone information was put forward. The study concludes that the use of SVG can greatly improve visual extent of meteorological information production and data information share.
2006, 32(6):111-115.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.020
Abstract:
In order to analysis the climate resource and agricultural climatic region , each spot has its corresponding climate value in the grid map of 3″×3″ resolution . The meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations during last 30 years (1971—2000) of Tai′an city were used. Under the geographic information system CityStar40 platform supporting, the method of two trends-surface of three-dimension analysis and combining with inserting value of space were adopted. The grid maps of resolution 3″×3″ of Tai′an were produced. The result showed that, each target through the examination, the correlation coefficient are all above 0.960, the examining value of F are greater than F0.05, average absolute errors of the annual mean temperature, the coldest monthly average temperature and the hottest monthly average temperature are less than 0.5℃, relative error of the accumulated temperature of ≥0℃, ≥5℃, ≥10℃ and ≥15℃ are under 5%
In order to analysis the climate resource and agricultural climatic region , each spot has its corresponding climate value in the grid map of 3″×3″ resolution . The meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations during last 30 years (1971—2000) of Tai′an city were used. Under the geographic information system CityStar40 platform supporting, the method of two trends-surface of three-dimension analysis and combining with inserting value of space were adopted. The grid maps of resolution 3″×3″ of Tai′an were produced. The result showed that, each target through the examination, the correlation coefficient are all above 0.960, the examining value of F are greater than F0.05, average absolute errors of the annual mean temperature, the coldest monthly average temperature and the hottest monthly average temperature are less than 0.5℃, relative error of the accumulated temperature of ≥0℃, ≥5℃, ≥10℃ and ≥15℃ are under 5%
2006, 32(6):116-120.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.6.021
Abstract:
The wheat scab is one of the most serious disasters affecting wheat yield. It is important to forecast the yield loss of wheat scab for the agricultural production and the national foodstuff security. The method was developed dynamically to forecast yield loss of wheat scab by using the data of yield loss of wheat scab and ten-days average temperature, ten-days precipitation, ten-days sunshine, ten-days precipitation days and the index of composite cluster analysis. The results show that the accuracy of tendency forecast is 90%, and the average accuracy of quantitative forecast is 755% for 10 years. This method is simple operation with high accuracy and good prospects.
The wheat scab is one of the most serious disasters affecting wheat yield. It is important to forecast the yield loss of wheat scab for the agricultural production and the national foodstuff security. The method was developed dynamically to forecast yield loss of wheat scab by using the data of yield loss of wheat scab and ten-days average temperature, ten-days precipitation, ten-days sunshine, ten-days precipitation days and the index of composite cluster analysis. The results show that the accuracy of tendency forecast is 90%, and the average accuracy of quantitative forecast is 755% for 10 years. This method is simple operation with high accuracy and good prospects.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P