ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 32,Issue 12,2006 Table of Contents
2006, 32(12):3-9.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.001
Abstract:
Forest fire is a kind of disaster, which often damages the ecosystem on the earth. Based on the relationship between forest fire and weather conditions,many kinds of forest fire danger weather indexes are developed to estimate and predict the possibility of ignition, fire intensity and spread,as well as the difficulty of wildfires control.Through reviewing and summarizing various study results,it can be included that the methods for calculating forest fire danger weather index conclude mainly three kinds,i.e.index verification check method,synthesis index method,and statistic regression method.In light of the theory and the applied effect,any method has its own strong point and defect comparing with others,so when it were used in China,the real calculation method should be modified and improved ac-cording to local climatic and environmental characteristics everywhere.
Forest fire is a kind of disaster, which often damages the ecosystem on the earth. Based on the relationship between forest fire and weather conditions,many kinds of forest fire danger weather indexes are developed to estimate and predict the possibility of ignition, fire intensity and spread,as well as the difficulty of wildfires control.Through reviewing and summarizing various study results,it can be included that the methods for calculating forest fire danger weather index conclude mainly three kinds,i.e.index verification check method,synthesis index method,and statistic regression method.In light of the theory and the applied effect,any method has its own strong point and defect comparing with others,so when it were used in China,the real calculation method should be modified and improved ac-cording to local climatic and environmental characteristics everywhere.
2006, 32(12):10-15.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.002
Abstract:
he crop growth models have been applied widely to agricultural production and its relative areas.The application researches for the crop growth models have been grown up day by day in China.At present,they are being transformed from the research phase to the operational phase.In order to expound the prospects for crop growth models applied to the agrometeorology services,and takeWOFOST model as example,the core modules,the main functions and the present application situation of overseas crop growth models were briefly described.In this foundation,the data spport,which the present meteorological services will be able to supply the crop growth models application,existing problems and their solutions, were analyzed.It was pointed out that the agrometeorological service domain will be expand-ed as well as agrometeorological service level will be promoted if the crop growth models are introduced into agrometeorological services in China.Additional,it is foreseen that the pros-pect of these aspects and so on was broad.
he crop growth models have been applied widely to agricultural production and its relative areas.The application researches for the crop growth models have been grown up day by day in China.At present,they are being transformed from the research phase to the operational phase.In order to expound the prospects for crop growth models applied to the agrometeorology services,and takeWOFOST model as example,the core modules,the main functions and the present application situation of overseas crop growth models were briefly described.In this foundation,the data spport,which the present meteorological services will be able to supply the crop growth models application,existing problems and their solutions, were analyzed.It was pointed out that the agrometeorological service domain will be expand-ed as well as agrometeorological service level will be promoted if the crop growth models are introduced into agrometeorological services in China.Additional,it is foreseen that the pros-pect of these aspects and so on was broad.
2006, 32(12):16-22.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.003
Abstract:
The errors in landing location forecasting of 5 typhoons in 2005 with 9 numerical models were statistically analyzed,and the synoptic situations of each typhoon were also in-vestigated.Then,the ability of typhoon track prediction and the valid time satisfying strate-gic decision service were discussed,and some preliminary suggestions on decision-making forecasting of typhoon predication were proposed.The statistical analysis results show that the average 72?6h prediction error of typhoon track by the numerical models is larger,and the identical errors could happen when the synoptic situations had great change and adjust-ment.
The errors in landing location forecasting of 5 typhoons in 2005 with 9 numerical models were statistically analyzed,and the synoptic situations of each typhoon were also in-vestigated.Then,the ability of typhoon track prediction and the valid time satisfying strate-gic decision service were discussed,and some preliminary suggestions on decision-making forecasting of typhoon predication were proposed.The statistical analysis results show that the average 72?6h prediction error of typhoon track by the numerical models is larger,and the identical errors could happen when the synoptic situations had great change and adjust-ment.
2006, 32(12):23-28.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.004
Abstract:
With Tianjin Doppler radar and auto-weather station data,the features and evolu-tions of 4 sea-breeze fronts are analyzed in Bohai Bay.It is shown that the echoes of sea breeze fronts of Bohai Bay belong to narrow and weak echoes and run parallel to Bohai Bay. Reflectivity intensity only remains 15-25dBz,its length about 100?00km,and its width changes with the weather and seasons.And its moving speed is very slow,just 10-15km·h-1).It is proved that when a sea-breeze front meets a cold front,it can bring about severe weather.But only a sea-breeze front cannot cause severe weather such as shower,just mak-ing some changes in temperature, humidity,and wind direction.
With Tianjin Doppler radar and auto-weather station data,the features and evolu-tions of 4 sea-breeze fronts are analyzed in Bohai Bay.It is shown that the echoes of sea breeze fronts of Bohai Bay belong to narrow and weak echoes and run parallel to Bohai Bay. Reflectivity intensity only remains 15-25dBz,its length about 100?00km,and its width changes with the weather and seasons.And its moving speed is very slow,just 10-15km·h-1).It is proved that when a sea-breeze front meets a cold front,it can bring about severe weather.But only a sea-breeze front cannot cause severe weather such as shower,just mak-ing some changes in temperature, humidity,and wind direction.
2006, 32(12):29-35.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.005
Abstract:
With the new generation numerical prediction model GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System),three typical heavy rainfall events happening respectively in Guizhou Province during June 23?4,July 17?8 and 21?2 of 2004 are numerically simulated,and the result is compared with observation data.The result shows: In all these processes,the movement of the major weather system is simulated by GRAPES model successfully,such as the strengthening of southwest vortex,low level jet,the conver-gence of low level jet and the passage of upper trough.GRAPES model can successfully sim-ulate the distribution of precipitation.But unfortunately,there are some differences in heavy rainfall between the observations and simulations.The simulation values of the precipitation center less than the observations.From the numerical results, GRAPES model is proved to have good ability to simulate heavy rainfall in Guizhou,and to be of good reference.
With the new generation numerical prediction model GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System),three typical heavy rainfall events happening respectively in Guizhou Province during June 23?4,July 17?8 and 21?2 of 2004 are numerically simulated,and the result is compared with observation data.The result shows: In all these processes,the movement of the major weather system is simulated by GRAPES model successfully,such as the strengthening of southwest vortex,low level jet,the conver-gence of low level jet and the passage of upper trough.GRAPES model can successfully sim-ulate the distribution of precipitation.But unfortunately,there are some differences in heavy rainfall between the observations and simulations.The simulation values of the precipitation center less than the observations.From the numerical results, GRAPES model is proved to have good ability to simulate heavy rainfall in Guizhou,and to be of good reference.
2006, 32(12):36-42.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.006
Abstract:
The effects of the terrain and terrain gradient on the heavy rain of Xichang are studied.It shows that the heavy rain on June 23,2004 is a southwest vortex-shear pattern, and the heavy rain on June 27,2004 is a two-high-convergence-pattern.With the mesoscale model (MM5V3.7) from PSU/NCAR,the two events are simulated.It is found that the mesoscale mountain has significant influence on the location and intensity of the heavy rain area,and the bell-mouthed area and the riverway area of Xichang are favorable to the occur-rence and development of mesoscale disturbance and heavy rain.
The effects of the terrain and terrain gradient on the heavy rain of Xichang are studied.It shows that the heavy rain on June 23,2004 is a southwest vortex-shear pattern, and the heavy rain on June 27,2004 is a two-high-convergence-pattern.With the mesoscale model (MM5V3.7) from PSU/NCAR,the two events are simulated.It is found that the mesoscale mountain has significant influence on the location and intensity of the heavy rain area,and the bell-mouthed area and the riverway area of Xichang are favorable to the occur-rence and development of mesoscale disturbance and heavy rain.
2006, 32(12):43-49.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.007
Abstract:
Based on the routine observations,an ageostrophic wet Q-vector diagnosis of a heavy rain process over the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 18-19 July 2005 is made. The results show as follows:(1) The heavy rain occurred in the updraft area triggered by the convergence center of the wet Q-vector.The convergence center is narrow and strong during the heavy precipitation.(2)The superposition area of the center of the positive vor-ticity and the convergence center of the wet Q-vector at 700hPa is advantageous to the me- soscale system.It corresponds well to the heavy rain area.(3)The center of frontogenesis at 700hPa corresponds to the heavy rain area after 12 hours.After the instability energy is re-leased largely,the air mass has frontolysis,and the heavy rain decreases gradually.
Based on the routine observations,an ageostrophic wet Q-vector diagnosis of a heavy rain process over the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 18-19 July 2005 is made. The results show as follows:(1) The heavy rain occurred in the updraft area triggered by the convergence center of the wet Q-vector.The convergence center is narrow and strong during the heavy precipitation.(2)The superposition area of the center of the positive vor-ticity and the convergence center of the wet Q-vector at 700hPa is advantageous to the me- soscale system.It corresponds well to the heavy rain area.(3)The center of frontogenesis at 700hPa corresponds to the heavy rain area after 12 hours.After the instability energy is re-leased largely,the air mass has frontolysis,and the heavy rain decreases gradually.
2006, 32(12):50-55.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.008
Abstract:
Based on the data of weather modification and hailfall at Zhangjiajie in the north-west area of Hunan Province in the summer of 2005,the radar echo characteristics of hail cloud are analyzed,and the results show that a small mobile radar can have more RHI pro-files to supply a deficiency far from Doppler radar in hail-preventing activity,One qualitative and four quantitative identification indexes for the hail cloud identification are found,and with the indexes the hail cloud may be rapidly and accurately distinguished.
Based on the data of weather modification and hailfall at Zhangjiajie in the north-west area of Hunan Province in the summer of 2005,the radar echo characteristics of hail cloud are analyzed,and the results show that a small mobile radar can have more RHI pro-files to supply a deficiency far from Doppler radar in hail-preventing activity,One qualitative and four quantitative identification indexes for the hail cloud identification are found,and with the indexes the hail cloud may be rapidly and accurately distinguished.
2006, 32(12):56-60.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.009
Abstract:
In order to objectively evaluate the hail suppression effect in Bole Area of Xin-jiang,the statistical approaches such as simple sequential test,unpaired W-M-W test and t-test,are used with the data of the annual hail damaged areas during 1976?003 in Bole area of Xinjiang,in which the hail suppression operations were carried out during 1989?003, and were not carried out during 1976?988.It is shown that the annual mean hail damaged areas have been reduced by 841.53hm2,about 26.56%.The statistical significance level i>α= 0.05.Therefore the hail suppression effect in the area is significant.
In order to objectively evaluate the hail suppression effect in Bole Area of Xin-jiang,the statistical approaches such as simple sequential test,unpaired W-M-W test and t-test,are used with the data of the annual hail damaged areas during 1976?003 in Bole area of Xinjiang,in which the hail suppression operations were carried out during 1989?003, and were not carried out during 1976?988.It is shown that the annual mean hail damaged areas have been reduced by 841.53hm2,about 26.56%.The statistical significance level i>α= 0.05.Therefore the hail suppression effect in the area is significant.
2006, 32(12):61-65.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.010
Abstract:
The support vector machine (SVM),a new generation machinery learning tech-nology based on statistical theory,has been reported to have better prediction performance of non-liner regression than traditional statistical methods.An SVM regression (SVMR) model for atmospheric pollution prediction is developed according to seven forecast factors, including the daily average pollutant concentration of previous day,daily average wind speed of previous day,etc.Meanwhile,10-fold cross-validation and grid-search methods are ap-plied to find the best parameters of SVMR.The experimental results of Urumqi data show that SVM has the unique advantage of high prediction accuracy and training rate on small-size data sets.It suggests a new model for prediction of atmospheric pollution.
The support vector machine (SVM),a new generation machinery learning tech-nology based on statistical theory,has been reported to have better prediction performance of non-liner regression than traditional statistical methods.An SVM regression (SVMR) model for atmospheric pollution prediction is developed according to seven forecast factors, including the daily average pollutant concentration of previous day,daily average wind speed of previous day,etc.Meanwhile,10-fold cross-validation and grid-search methods are ap-plied to find the best parameters of SVMR.The experimental results of Urumqi data show that SVM has the unique advantage of high prediction accuracy and training rate on small-size data sets.It suggests a new model for prediction of atmospheric pollution.
2006, 32(12):66-71.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.011
Abstract:
Diagnostic analysis on a server icing case occurring on the route from Luoyang to Guanghan on February 16,2006 is conducted.It shows that the severe aircraft icing has close relations to the convective instability meteorological conditions between 3000 and 7000 high above the sea level in the east of the Tibetan Plateau.Such physical variables as K in-dex,upward velocity vorticity advection,etc.can be used for the reference of icing forecast. Larger K index or its increasing areas,strong upward flow and advection regions of positive vorticity all correspond to the severe aircraft icing.
Diagnostic analysis on a server icing case occurring on the route from Luoyang to Guanghan on February 16,2006 is conducted.It shows that the severe aircraft icing has close relations to the convective instability meteorological conditions between 3000 and 7000 high above the sea level in the east of the Tibetan Plateau.Such physical variables as K in-dex,upward velocity vorticity advection,etc.can be used for the reference of icing forecast. Larger K index or its increasing areas,strong upward flow and advection regions of positive vorticity all correspond to the severe aircraft icing.
2006, 32(12):72-75.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.012
Abstract:
Based on the routine data and the observations of CINRAD/SA radar and automat-ic weather stations,a squall line affecting Fujian on May 22,2005 is analyzed.The squall line is a kind of instable and strong convective weather caused by the air with upper-layer dry and lower-layer wet in front of the upper-troposphere trough.The Mesoscale structure,such as bow echo,strong rear inflow and weak echo region on the inflow entrance etc,with the squall line,caused the disasterous wind.
Based on the routine data and the observations of CINRAD/SA radar and automat-ic weather stations,a squall line affecting Fujian on May 22,2005 is analyzed.The squall line is a kind of instable and strong convective weather caused by the air with upper-layer dry and lower-layer wet in front of the upper-troposphere trough.The Mesoscale structure,such as bow echo,strong rear inflow and weak echo region on the inflow entrance etc,with the squall line,caused the disasterous wind.
2006, 32(12):76-81.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.013
Abstract:
The onset of Meiyu over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basins in 2005 is late. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,OLR data and daily precipitation data in 2005,the anomalous circulation conditions are analyzed.The abnormal activities of East Asia major deep trough,mid-west Pacific ITCZ and East Asian subtropical upper westerly jet,and their relationship with the anomalous subtropical high and cold air are discussed.The results show that the late northward-jumping of the subtropical high is caused by the exceptional deep trough of East Asia,the East Asian subtropical upper westerly jet and the weak ITCZ. Additionally,the cold wave is strengthened by the strong upper westerly jet and the subtrop-ical frontal zone is to the south of its normal location.The propagation of warm and wet summer monsoon towards the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley is prevented by the strong cold air forcing.The late northward-shift of upper westerly jet and the subtropical high is the main reason for the late onset of Meiyu in 2005.
The onset of Meiyu over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basins in 2005 is late. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,OLR data and daily precipitation data in 2005,the anomalous circulation conditions are analyzed.The abnormal activities of East Asia major deep trough,mid-west Pacific ITCZ and East Asian subtropical upper westerly jet,and their relationship with the anomalous subtropical high and cold air are discussed.The results show that the late northward-jumping of the subtropical high is caused by the exceptional deep trough of East Asia,the East Asian subtropical upper westerly jet and the weak ITCZ. Additionally,the cold wave is strengthened by the strong upper westerly jet and the subtrop-ical frontal zone is to the south of its normal location.The propagation of warm and wet summer monsoon towards the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley is prevented by the strong cold air forcing.The late northward-shift of upper westerly jet and the subtropical high is the main reason for the late onset of Meiyu in 2005.
2006, 32(12):82-87.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.014
Abstract:
The analysis of the synoptic situation and physical quantity field With the MI-CAPS's routine data on 3? March,2005 shows that the cold wave moved from north to south,and then moved from east into west and northwest of Yunnan.Because there was maintained strong anticyclonical circulation all along from the Bay of Bengal to Indochina Peninsula,and the anticyclonical centers were all stronger in the upper,middle and lower at-mosphere,the cold wave was obstructed and couldn't move to the south.There was no southern branch trough coupling,but the lower trough south of the plateau offered plentiful water vapor for the snowfall and rainfall,the northwest current at SOOhPa brought strong cold advection.The 200hPa shear line that kept in Lijiang,Kunming and Mengzi was the main dynamical factor for snowfall and rainfall weather.
The analysis of the synoptic situation and physical quantity field With the MI-CAPS's routine data on 3? March,2005 shows that the cold wave moved from north to south,and then moved from east into west and northwest of Yunnan.Because there was maintained strong anticyclonical circulation all along from the Bay of Bengal to Indochina Peninsula,and the anticyclonical centers were all stronger in the upper,middle and lower at-mosphere,the cold wave was obstructed and couldn't move to the south.There was no southern branch trough coupling,but the lower trough south of the plateau offered plentiful water vapor for the snowfall and rainfall,the northwest current at SOOhPa brought strong cold advection.The 200hPa shear line that kept in Lijiang,Kunming and Mengzi was the main dynamical factor for snowfall and rainfall weather.
2006, 32(12):88-95.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.015
Abstract:
For the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment of China in the first half of 2006,based on the estimate of net primary productivity (NPP),the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index (EMI) model is developed.Monitoring and assessment show that the ecological and meteorological conditions are worse in the most part of China,and the meteorologically梔riven ecological assessment index of China is only?0.The better, moderate,worse proportions of ecological and meteorological condition grade give a ratio of 2 :45:53.The woodland,grass-shrub-land and farmland area,which are very important for environment and production,have its ecological and meteorological condition grade being better or moderate,and but their area decreases obviously compared with that in the first half of 2005.From January to June,the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index is receded month by month,it is order but approaches to critical state and even to worse grade almost in May and June.The main causation is the effect of drought and low temperature in a long period of time.The more forest and grass fires and the frequent sandstorm happening in large area are the environment causes and effects.There are some physical and ecological significances in the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index model. The model is applied and has better space-time resolution.The model was applied to ecologi-cal monitoring and assessment in the first half of 2006,its result was objective and reliable.
For the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment of China in the first half of 2006,based on the estimate of net primary productivity (NPP),the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index (EMI) model is developed.Monitoring and assessment show that the ecological and meteorological conditions are worse in the most part of China,and the meteorologically梔riven ecological assessment index of China is only?0.The better, moderate,worse proportions of ecological and meteorological condition grade give a ratio of 2 :45:53.The woodland,grass-shrub-land and farmland area,which are very important for environment and production,have its ecological and meteorological condition grade being better or moderate,and but their area decreases obviously compared with that in the first half of 2005.From January to June,the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index is receded month by month,it is order but approaches to critical state and even to worse grade almost in May and June.The main causation is the effect of drought and low temperature in a long period of time.The more forest and grass fires and the frequent sandstorm happening in large area are the environment causes and effects.There are some physical and ecological significances in the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index model. The model is applied and has better space-time resolution.The model was applied to ecologi-cal monitoring and assessment in the first half of 2006,its result was objective and reliable.
2006, 32(12):96-101.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.016
Abstract:
The relationship between Litchi fruit growth process and the meteorological data such as temperature of the same period in continuous 3 years for an orchard is analyzed.The result shows that the time and length of the fruit growth period vary with various years,and its difference is related with the temperature conditions in the fruit growth duration.The big absolute value of the coldness-accumulated before the bloom will be helpful to promote the flower bud differentiation.The fruit growth process will be accelerated and the bearing fruit stage will be shorter with higher daily growth temperature in the duration from the bud to pulp arise,otherwise,the fruit growth process would be delayed and the stage will be lon-ger.But the days from pulp appearance to the fruit maturity are more stable.The statistic result shows that the accumulated growth temperature could more reflect the temperature influence on litchi fruit growth than effective accumulated growth temperature.
The relationship between Litchi fruit growth process and the meteorological data such as temperature of the same period in continuous 3 years for an orchard is analyzed.The result shows that the time and length of the fruit growth period vary with various years,and its difference is related with the temperature conditions in the fruit growth duration.The big absolute value of the coldness-accumulated before the bloom will be helpful to promote the flower bud differentiation.The fruit growth process will be accelerated and the bearing fruit stage will be shorter with higher daily growth temperature in the duration from the bud to pulp arise,otherwise,the fruit growth process would be delayed and the stage will be lon-ger.But the days from pulp appearance to the fruit maturity are more stable.The statistic result shows that the accumulated growth temperature could more reflect the temperature influence on litchi fruit growth than effective accumulated growth temperature.
2006, 32(12):107-112.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.018
Abstract:
The cause for the carbon monoxide poisoning and the meteorological influence in Yanji during February 13?4,2006 are analyzed.The results indicate that,both the dura-tive breeze and the obvious rising of temperature are the main meteorological factors for the CO poisoning.In the meantime,weather conditions,such as temperature inversion,weak pressure field,cloudiness etc. ,constrain the surface wind and turbulence for longtime.The time of unfavorable weather factor influence is extended.Most of the people who died in the accident and most sufferers live in narrow and small building,heat preservation and poor ventilation.When influenced by same meteorological conditions,poor ventilation and oxygen supply in these houses worse than normal cause CO to increase prominently in the combus-tion process and unable to discharge normally.This is the basic cause for the accident.
The cause for the carbon monoxide poisoning and the meteorological influence in Yanji during February 13?4,2006 are analyzed.The results indicate that,both the dura-tive breeze and the obvious rising of temperature are the main meteorological factors for the CO poisoning.In the meantime,weather conditions,such as temperature inversion,weak pressure field,cloudiness etc. ,constrain the surface wind and turbulence for longtime.The time of unfavorable weather factor influence is extended.Most of the people who died in the accident and most sufferers live in narrow and small building,heat preservation and poor ventilation.When influenced by same meteorological conditions,poor ventilation and oxygen supply in these houses worse than normal cause CO to increase prominently in the combus-tion process and unable to discharge normally.This is the basic cause for the accident.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P