ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 32,Issue 11,2006 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Research Reviews of Dynamic, Thermodynamic and Microphysical Factors Affecting Cloud and Precipitation
    廖菲 洪延超 郑国光
    2006, 32(11):3-11. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.001
    [Abstract](655) [HTML](225) [PDF 653.17 K](707)
    Cloud and precipitation are the results of the interactions between atmospheric dynamic, thermodynamic and cloud microphysical processes, thus these processes also restrict and affect their generation and development. For an in-depth understanding the influences of these processes on cloud and precipitation, which can be discussed briefly from the following three aspects: (1)Influences of dynamic factors on cloud and precipitation. Wind shear, synoptic elevation effects, topographical dynamics and turbulence effects are generally analyzed. (2)Influences of thermodynamic factors on cloud and precipitation. Thermodynamic disturbance, latent heat release and radiation processes are analyzed respectively. (3)Influences of microphysical processes on cloud and precipitation. They are, effects of microphysical processes on dynamic and thermodynamic processes, effects of electrification processes on cloud particles, and relative importance of different microphysical processes on cloud and precipitation, which are discussed respectively. Finally, the necessity of considering these three aspects together in study problems of cloud and precipitation is put forward.
    2  Application of CFD Method to Simulation and Prediction of Meteorological Fields for Street Lane
    闫敬华 戴光丰 袁卓建
    2006, 32(11):12-18. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.002
    [Abstract](409) [HTML](82) [PDF 576.65 K](673)
    Taking PHOENICS as example, the principles of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is described. The feasibility of applying the CFD method to numerical calculation of meteorological elements for street lane is discussed. A scheme for simulating and predicting meteorological fields in street lane is proposed, which is based on the nested CFD model into high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. A number of sensitivity analyses are run for the nesting problems at the boundary. It shows that nesting treatment is necessary and feasible in the calculation of meteorological fields. In addition, the effect of resolution on the results and duration of calculations is also discussed. In the final section, real cases are used to illustrate the application of the proposed scheme and the potential usefulness of the method.
    3  An Improved Scheme of Variation Correcting for Remote Sensing Data and Its Application
    2006, 32(11):19-24. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.003
    [Abstract](407) [HTML](66) [PDF 372.32 K](621)
    Because of the disadvantage of the existing scheme of variational correcting for remote sensing data, an improved scheme was brought up. In the new scheme, it is not necessary that the correction reference value would be interpolated to the grid of remote sensing data. Therefore, the difficulty of objective analysis and the bad impact of interpolation errors can be avoided in the region of reference value lack. By means of the scheme, the errors of remote sensing data can be reduced evidently while its spatial pattern is held. Some tests were performed to correct the ATOVS retrieved data from the National Satellite Meteorological Center, and the results show that the improved scheme is better in correcting remote sensing data. The ATOVS retrieved data corrected are put to use in Grapes-3Dvar system, and have proved applicable by the application experiment.
    4  Detection about AgI-Type Seeding Agents of China
    2006, 32(11):25-31. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.004
    [Abstract](393) [HTML](55) [PDF 413.62 K](593)
    The ice nucleation effectiveness for several AgI-type seeding agents in common use in weather modification of China is compared. The ice nucleation mechanisms responsible for various cloud chambers and the error origins of the mixing cloud chamber are analysed. In addition, the measuring results of two seeding agents released with airflow are discussed also. The results show that the detection of AgI-type seeding agents should be regard to the environment as ice nuclei released besides the conditions of the ice nuclei activation should be better simulated by cloud chamber. It is pre-requisite to build testing equipment that could simulate the ventilation, and the test results would be more close to practice in this way.
    5  Simulations of Aircraft Bump Caused by Topography
    李子良 黄仪方
    2006, 32(11):32-35. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.005
    [Abstract](638) [HTML](79) [PDF 6.05 M](783)
    The equation of aircraft loading coefficient variable is obtained from the equation of aircraft motion, where the aircraft bump is mainly determined by the vertical wind velocity of the atmosphere. The characters of lee rotors, the high-level turbulence and low-level turbulence generated by flow over mountain are investigated using the numerical model ARPS. The results show that the critical layer and surface friction play a significant role in the forming of the rotors and reversal flow, and the high-level turbulence in the troposphere and low-level turbulence in the lee of the mountain. This is why the airplanes flying over the mountain region often meet with the strong flight bump, and the effect of mountain on the atmospheric turbulence and flight bump is very important and dominant over other factors. This helps to understand the mechanism of flight bump and improve the forecast of the aviation flight meteorological conditions.
    6  The Food Security of China under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios
    熊伟 居辉 许吟隆 林而达
    2006, 32(11):36-41. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.006
    [Abstract](444) [HTML](71) [PDF 390.75 K](637)
    The temperature increase due to the greenhouse gases emission is the hot topic of international community. By using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios, regional climate model- PRECIS and crop model- CERES, combined with the social economical scenarios downscaled from the IPCC SRES, the grain supply and demand in 2020, 2050 and 2080 were simulated and analyzed. The Results show that the three main food plants yields would decrease under both A2 and B2 scenarios without considering the CO2 direct effect, the range of yield descent would reduce if there is enough irrigation. Yield could increase yet if the CO2 direct effect was included in the simulation. With the assumption of a 5% grain import percentage, a population increase scenario described by SRES A2 or B2, technology advance will make grain yield increase above 0.7% or 1% by 2030. With the same percentage of plants and planting areas as present, food supply would meet the demand under B2 scenarios, while would not under A2 scenarios.
    7  Prospect of Meteorological Application Network on the Ground-based GPS in China
    曹云昌 方宗义 夏青 赵志强
    2006, 32(11):42-47. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.007
    [Abstract](802) [HTML](158) [PDF 2.01 M](710)
    Ground-based GPS atmospheric sounding has been used in many meteorological services due to its high temporal resolution, accuracy, no calibration and multiple applications. Research and regional operational experiments have been conducted in China over these years. Two levels of meteorological applications will be operated in the future with the development of the Chinese continuous operational reference stations. The national GPS network with about 100 km distance between two stations is used to monitor the synoptic distribution and variation of the moisture, while the local GPS network with about 10-40 km distance is used to monitor the me-soscale weather phenomena, and to obtain moisture profiles by tomographic technology. GPS stations operated by different departments in China will be combined with the ones operated by China Meteorological Administration to meet the operational need of meteorological department. The establishment of the project will rely on the operational system of communication and technique to improve the weather forecast and monitor the space weather and the climate.
    8  Analysis of Hail Index and Its Application to Nowcasting of Rainstorm
    邵玲玲 黄宁立 王倩怡 江旭东 邱黎华
    2006, 32(11):48-54. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.008
    [Abstract](812) [HTML](92) [PDF 7.55 M](771)
    The hail detection algorithm(HDA)of the CINRAD is investigated,and design features of algorithm in early(7.0)and advanced editions(10.0)are analyzed.The results show that the thinking of HDA is analogous with that of nowcasting of the rainstorm,and both of them are based on the detection of high reflectivity factor in storm cells.The tentative plan of nowcasting disastrous precipitation(hail and local rainstorm)is first put forward using the hail index(HI)on the basis of different seasons.By means of statistical analysis and research of HI and VIL etc radar products,some basic methods and establishment of algorithm threshold on forecasting disastrous precipitation are summarized in a number of cases,and so as to provide referential messages for forecasters to use the products of the CINRAD.
    9  Causation Analyses of High Water Level in the East Part of the Yangtze River and Its Services of Forecasting Decisions
    曹乃和 杜永红 钱国萍 陈爱玉 陈新育 周昌云 刘娟
    2006, 32(11):55-60. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.009
    [Abstract](470) [HTML](76) [PDF 1.41 M](582)
    The high water level is one of the flood disasters found frequently in the east part of the Yangtze River.Aimed to high water level days in the latest 13 years,the causes for high water level and the main factors are analyzed using the hydrologic data and synoptic chart on the basis of synoptic theory,the lunar tide theory and the storm tide theory etc.The results are as follows:(1)The high water level in the east of Yangtze River happens during the peak periods of the lunar tide and is directly affected by the high tide level.(2)Typhoon and west wind trough are the weather systems leading to the high water level.(3)The flood from the upstream Changjiang River induced by the west wind trough discharges eastwards passing the east part of the river;the solitary wave forced by the typhoon near the continental shelf makes the sea surface rise severely,and the back-flows of the storm surge intrudes the east part of the river.(4)There is no significant relationship between the high water level and the local precipitation.
    10  A Short-range Forecast Method of Heavy Rainfall in Miyun Reservoir Basin
    张德山 邵明轩 穆启占 张宝荣 刘明华 刘明
    2006, 32(11):61-66. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.010
    [Abstract](545) [HTML](133) [PDF 347.23 K](691)
    A method of forecasting the heavy rainfall in the Miyun Reservoir Basin is developed,according to the synoptic situation during the heavy rainfall,by means of the interpretation and application of NWF outputs,and the local observations.By analyzing the rainfall data of 20 hydrological stations in the Miyun Reservoir Basin from 1970 to 1993,the relationship between 45 heavy rainfall events and synoptic situations,NWF outputs,the forecast indexes and synoptic patterns are put forward,and 24-hour heavy rain forecast equations of June,July,August in the Miyun Reservoir Basin are developed.The operational forecasts show that the forecast method is feasible and successful.
    11  Doppler Radar Data Analysis of Convective and Typhoon Short-time Torrential Rainfall in Summer in Ningbo
    何彩芬 朱龙彪 董杏燕 黄旋旋
    2006, 32(11):67-72. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.011
    [Abstract](650) [HTML](172) [PDF 7.20 M](684)
    In order to find the echo characteristics of convective short-time torrential rainfall and typhoon short-time torrential rainfall,the two types of Doppler weather radar data in NingBo during summers in 2004 and 2005 are analyzed based on these echoes' evolution,intensity,products and so on.The results indicate that they have significant differences in characteristics of products,such as Z,TOP and VIL etc.The estimated precipitation from those products,such as OHP and STP were lower than the reals,and the bigger the precipitation,the bigger errors there are;there were also big errors while using the relationship between Z and I to estimate precipitation,especially in the cases of typhoon.Finally,in order to improve the precipitation estimate in summer in Ningbo,the relationships between Z and I under convective and typhoon weather cases are established respectively.
    12  Application of NCEP Data and Doppler Weather Radar Data to Thunderstorm Prediction in Beijing Area
    梁爱民 张庆红 申红喜 李秀连 王科
    2006, 32(11):73-80. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.012
    [Abstract](978) [HTML](98) [PDF 6.49 M](964)
    Based on the reanalysis data of NCEP,some average fields from 30 thunderstorm days in Beijing area in summer from 2000 to 2005,such as CAPE,CIN,PWAT,ω,RH and LI,are analyzed to make out characteristics of large-scale environment fields of thunderstorm days.The results show that the CAPE has a rapid increasing process before thunderstorm occurrs,on the other hand,the CIN decreases gradually.The ω profile also shows that ascent activity occurs in the lower troposphere,while cold air and descent flow in the middle-upper troposphere are beneficial to the enhancement of instability layer.Stronger ascent velocity can touch the tropopause,higher RH area exists on the 600hPa,PWAT reaches its maximum,but LI is the minimum when thunderstorm takes place.By comparing average fields of 46 general storms with that of non-thunderstorms during May to August from 2004 to 2005,PWAT can be used to distinguish between the thunderstorm and general storm.The successful thunderstorm nowcasting could be achieved by analyzing Doppler weather radar reflectivity and radial velocity products.
    13  Analysis of Taizhimiao Heavy Rainfall and Mountain Torrent in Hunan Province
    周雨华 刘志雄 谭一洲 尹忠海 黄小玉 彭双姿
    2006, 32(11):81-87. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.013
    [Abstract](625) [HTML](134) [PDF 6.40 M](762)
    A heavy rainfall and mountain torrent occurred in May 31,2005 at Taizhimiao Town,Shaoyang,Hunan Province.An analysis of the event is made based on the routine meteorological observations and hydrological rainfall,Doppler radar detection,and numerical simulation of WRF model.It shows that the important conditions causing the event are the strong instability of atmospheric stratification and severe vertical wind shear in the area.Under the background of favorable large-scale circulation,the heavy rainfall is closely related with the evolution and development of a meso-β-scale cyclone on a north-south shear line.Another condition causing the event is the formation and maintenance of a secondary meridional circulation over the heavy rainfall area.In addition,the complicated topography of Taizhimiao plays an important role in the appearance of the heavy rainfall and the outburst of the enormous mountain torrent.
    14  Relationship Between 100hPa Circulation and Meiyu Anomaly in 2005
    王秀文 桂海林
    2006, 32(11):88-93. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.014
    [Abstract](715) [HTML](97) [PDF 424.29 K](659)
    There existed the characteristics of short period and less rainfall during the Meiyu in 2005,which made the main rainband occur in the Jiangnan area and South China.The relationship between the 100hPa circulation and Meiyu is analyzed based on the NCEP /NCAR reanalysis datasets in 2005.The results show that the center of 100hPa South Asia high stayed over the south of the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau in June,the ridge position at 120°E was located in 21—26°N,it is obvious that the ridge position is southerly in June.The center of South Asia high moved northward in July.During June to July,the ridge position of the 100hPa South Asia high at 120°E is northerly by five latitude degrees or so more than that of the northwest Pacific subtropic high.Both east ridge position of the 100hPa South Asia high and the ridge of the 500hPa subtropic high move northward and southward synchronously,while the north of east ridge position of 100hPa South Asia high corresponds the place where the heavy rain occurs.
    15  Characteristics of Urban Heat-island Effect in the Coastal Cities of Guangdong
    曾侠 钱光明 陈特固 张江勇 余克服
    2006, 32(11):94-97. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.015
    [Abstract](476) [HTML](66) [PDF 251.76 K](657)
    By taking the data from five stations without heat-island effect as reference,the heat-island characteristics in the coastal cities of Guangdong Province were investigated based on the air temperatures data from meteorological and oceanographic stations nearby the coastal regions during 44 years between 1960 and 2003,and the impact characteristics of heat island on eighteen coastal meteorological stations were assessed respectively.The results indicate that,to a great degree,the fourteen meteorological stations are affected by heat-island,except four of the eighteen stations.Intensity of heat-island is from 0.4 to 0.8 ℃ over the past ten years with significant seasonal variations.Due to the heat island impact,the annual mean air-temperature is increased by 0.1℃/10a to 0.3℃/10a in the recent 30 to 50 years,in comparison with reference stations.
    16  Verification of the Medium-range Forecast Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF Model from June to August 2006
    2006, 32(11):98-104. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.016
    [Abstract](726) [HTML](72) [PDF 409.80 K](647)
    In China,summer is the most difficult season for weather forecasting because the weather systems changes quickly and strongly so that most serious meteorological hazards such as drought,torrential and flood occur in this season.In order to improve the ability to use the products of T213,some synoptic verification about its 96-hour medium-term numerical forecasting in 2006 summer is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF model.The results indicate that both models have good performances for large-scale circulation of the high and middle latitude,temperature of 850hPa and the Pacific subtropical high.They can also forecast the movement of tropical cyclone successfully except more fast than observation.But the movement velocity of tropical cyclone center forecasted by T213 model is faster and its landing is earlier than observation,while the prediction results of ECMWF model is reverse.
    17  China Meteorologically-driven Ecological Monitoring and Assessment in the First Half of 2006
    毛留喜 李朝生 侯英雨 钱拴 唐世浩
    2006, 32(11):105-112. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.017
    [Abstract](711) [HTML](136) [PDF 464.61 K](644)
    For the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment of China in the first half of 2006,based on the estimate of net primary productivity(NPP),the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index(EMI)model is developed.Monitoring and assessment show that the ecological and meteorological conditions are worse in the most part of China,and the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index of China is only-30.The better,moderate,worse proportions of ecological and meteorological condition grade give a ratio of 2∶45∶53.The woodland,grass-shrub-land and farmland area,which are very important for environment and production,have its ecological and meteorological condition grade being better or moderate,and but their area decreases obviously compared with that in the first half of 2005.From January to June,the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index is receded month by month,it is order but approaches to critical state and even to worse grade almost in May and June.The main causation is the effect of drought and low temperature in a long period of time.The more forest and grass fires and the frequent sandstorm happening in large area are the environment causes and effects.There are some physical and ecological significances in the meteorologically-driven ecological assessment index model.The model is applied and has better space-time resolution.The model was applied to ecological monitoring and assessment in the first half of 2006,its result was objective and reliable.
    18  Meteorological Risk Analysis and Forecast to Mariculture Production
    卢峰本 黄滢 周启强 许文龙
    2006, 32(11):113-117. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.11.018
    [Abstract](705) [HTML](212) [PDF 357.45 K](660)
    The disaster of the mariculture production and the suitable environment condition were studied.Then meteorological disaster risk of the mariculture production and the standard of suitable environment,characterized by seawater salinity and temperature,were confirmed.The database of the risk index was built.By using the data of seawater salinity,seawater temperature,precipitation and temperature,wind speed,wind direction and so on during 1968 to 1982,and choosing the method of the stepwise regression equations,the forecast equations of seawater temperature and seawater salinity were formulated,used meteorological elements as prediction factors.Based on it,through the weather observation and forecast and combining with the standard of the risk evaluation,the meteorological risk of the mariculture production was forecasted.In this way,more pertinent weather forecast service has been offered to prevent the disaster and improve the output and the quality of the mariculture production.

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