ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 32,Issue 1,2006 Table of Contents
2006, 32(1):3-11.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.001
Abstract:
It is expounded that NEXRAD product improvement (NPI), operation upgrade projects, and their current situations. Further more the NEXRAD network science infusion plan and the strategic directions for WSR-88D in the period 2007—2025 are introduced. NPI includes setting up open system, developing new algorithms, building Common Operations Development Environment,and studying the integration method of various radar data, et.al.. NEXRAD update projects contain TCP/IP communication,base data distribution scheme,and radar system equipments.The science infusion plan and strategic directions tell that the NEXRAD will develop to high spatial-temporal resolution and data synthesis applications. Some Opinions are put forward for China weather radar network operations support, products development and data application, and new technology study and evaluation.
It is expounded that NEXRAD product improvement (NPI), operation upgrade projects, and their current situations. Further more the NEXRAD network science infusion plan and the strategic directions for WSR-88D in the period 2007—2025 are introduced. NPI includes setting up open system, developing new algorithms, building Common Operations Development Environment,and studying the integration method of various radar data, et.al.. NEXRAD update projects contain TCP/IP communication,base data distribution scheme,and radar system equipments.The science infusion plan and strategic directions tell that the NEXRAD will develop to high spatial-temporal resolution and data synthesis applications. Some Opinions are put forward for China weather radar network operations support, products development and data application, and new technology study and evaluation.
2006, 32(1):12-17.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.002
Abstract:
Based on the routine observation data and the Doppler weather radar data, the synoptic patterns and radar echo features of four heavy rainfall events at the edge of western Pacific subtropical high in Hunan from 2003 to 2004 are analyzed. It shows that the position of the western Pacific subtropical high, the upper-trough, the southwest jet stream, low vortex, shear line and cold front in surface are responsible for precipitation. In base reflectivity picture, the heavy rainfall of warm shear line, the heavy rainfall of cold shear line and heavy rainfall of trough are characteristic by narrow band echo feature from south to north, cumulostratus echo feature from west to east approximately and cumulostratus echo feature from northeast to southwest respectively. In Doppler radial velocity picture, there are low-level jet, cold(warm) advection, cold front, averse wind region, the upper strong wind core feature and so on. When several features appear at the same time, the heavy rainfall event will likely appear.
Based on the routine observation data and the Doppler weather radar data, the synoptic patterns and radar echo features of four heavy rainfall events at the edge of western Pacific subtropical high in Hunan from 2003 to 2004 are analyzed. It shows that the position of the western Pacific subtropical high, the upper-trough, the southwest jet stream, low vortex, shear line and cold front in surface are responsible for precipitation. In base reflectivity picture, the heavy rainfall of warm shear line, the heavy rainfall of cold shear line and heavy rainfall of trough are characteristic by narrow band echo feature from south to north, cumulostratus echo feature from west to east approximately and cumulostratus echo feature from northeast to southwest respectively. In Doppler radial velocity picture, there are low-level jet, cold(warm) advection, cold front, averse wind region, the upper strong wind core feature and so on. When several features appear at the same time, the heavy rainfall event will likely appear.
2006, 32(1):18-23.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.003
Abstract:
The analysis of summer precipitation anomaly and the feature of water vapor transport in Qinghai Plateau for the last 43 years is made. It shows that (1) The summer precipitation increased at first and then decreased. After the end of 1980's, precipitation has a steady cycle of three-year, and is in a rainy period now. (2)The content of water vapor flux in Qinghai plateau varies from 50 to 150kg·m-1·s-1, and it increases from west to east boundary. The net vapor flux has an increasing tendency in the last 43 years. (3) In a dry year, water vapor flux decreases about 10—40kg·m-1·s-1, and there is a increasing vapor flux divergence field. In a moist year, the water vapor flux increases about 10—20kg·m-1·s-1, and there is a increasing vapor flux convergence. (4) In a dry year, the net water vapor flux is positive always, but the content is low about 21.88% than average state, and it is high about 53.99% in a moist year.
The analysis of summer precipitation anomaly and the feature of water vapor transport in Qinghai Plateau for the last 43 years is made. It shows that (1) The summer precipitation increased at first and then decreased. After the end of 1980's, precipitation has a steady cycle of three-year, and is in a rainy period now. (2)The content of water vapor flux in Qinghai plateau varies from 50 to 150kg·m-1·s-1, and it increases from west to east boundary. The net vapor flux has an increasing tendency in the last 43 years. (3) In a dry year, water vapor flux decreases about 10—40kg·m-1·s-1, and there is a increasing vapor flux divergence field. In a moist year, the water vapor flux increases about 10—20kg·m-1·s-1, and there is a increasing vapor flux convergence. (4) In a dry year, the net water vapor flux is positive always, but the content is low about 21.88% than average state, and it is high about 53.99% in a moist year.
2006, 32(1):24-29.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.004
Abstract:
The characteristics of drought in the Weihe River basin are analyzed with Markov chain and stochastic process theory. The results show that the continuous wet (dry) periods are usually extended from 2 to 3 years. The probability of a single wet (dry) year is larger than that of continuous wet (dry) years. The probability of continuous dry years is larger than that of continuous wet years. The periods of continuous dry years are longer than that of continuous wet years. The sudden change from a dry year (wet year) to wetter year (drier year) has negative effects for irrigation. The probability of drier year is the greatest, and then wetter year, the probability of wet year is the smallest. The frequencies of the continuous 2- or 3-dry year are high and their intensities are great. In addition, with the partial correlations analysis, the relationship between the precipitation index, the temperature index and the runoff in the Weihe River basin are analyzed. On the basis of these data, the drought index is estimated for the area.
The characteristics of drought in the Weihe River basin are analyzed with Markov chain and stochastic process theory. The results show that the continuous wet (dry) periods are usually extended from 2 to 3 years. The probability of a single wet (dry) year is larger than that of continuous wet (dry) years. The probability of continuous dry years is larger than that of continuous wet years. The periods of continuous dry years are longer than that of continuous wet years. The sudden change from a dry year (wet year) to wetter year (drier year) has negative effects for irrigation. The probability of drier year is the greatest, and then wetter year, the probability of wet year is the smallest. The frequencies of the continuous 2- or 3-dry year are high and their intensities are great. In addition, with the partial correlations analysis, the relationship between the precipitation index, the temperature index and the runoff in the Weihe River basin are analyzed. On the basis of these data, the drought index is estimated for the area.
2006, 32(1):30-35.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.005
Abstract:
From the night of 20 to 22 in Dec. 2004, a heavy snow event occurred in Huanghuai basin. The event is analyzed with Doppler radar data and simulated with mesoscale numeric model. It shows that the generation and characteristics of heavy snow was definitely different from that of heavy rain in Meiyu front. The characteristics of the heavy snow could be well described with Doppler radar data: the average convective height was 3—4km, the maximal height less than 8km. When the snow was heavy, a very strong low-level jet was found. It was ENE, 12—14m·s-1, near surface, at 925hPa. The vertical shear between upper level and low level was obvious. The baroclinicity was very strong. The evolution and characteristics of this event could be well simulated with high resolution mesoscale numeric model.
From the night of 20 to 22 in Dec. 2004, a heavy snow event occurred in Huanghuai basin. The event is analyzed with Doppler radar data and simulated with mesoscale numeric model. It shows that the generation and characteristics of heavy snow was definitely different from that of heavy rain in Meiyu front. The characteristics of the heavy snow could be well described with Doppler radar data: the average convective height was 3—4km, the maximal height less than 8km. When the snow was heavy, a very strong low-level jet was found. It was ENE, 12—14m·s-1, near surface, at 925hPa. The vertical shear between upper level and low level was obvious. The baroclinicity was very strong. The evolution and characteristics of this event could be well simulated with high resolution mesoscale numeric model.
2006, 32(1):36-43.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.006
Abstract:
The meso-scale characteristics of the heavy rainfall case of 3—4th July 2003 in the Huaihe Valley is investigated based on the conventional radiosonde and surface observation as well as high resolution non-conventional observation data. It is revealed that the development of meso-β-scale convective systems within the meso-α-scale cloud belt of the Mei-Yu front results in directly the event under the favorable large-scale circulation conditions. There are three rain-mass active periods corresponding to three different peak values of rainfall intensity in the time series of the event. The rain-mass activities in the first and the third periods are related to the continuous effect of the dispersive meso-scale convective complexes, while rain-mass activity in the second period is caused by the rapid development of the near surface meso-β-scale (about 100km long) convergence line, which induces the rapid and systematic development of convective cloud cells into meso-β-scale complexes. It is also shown that these meso-β-scale convective complexes are with strong reflectivity echoes (about 40—60dBz) in the middle and low atmosphere, and there are positive correlations between the echo intensities, vertical extensions of the meso-β-scale convective complexes and the surface precipitation intensities.
The meso-scale characteristics of the heavy rainfall case of 3—4th July 2003 in the Huaihe Valley is investigated based on the conventional radiosonde and surface observation as well as high resolution non-conventional observation data. It is revealed that the development of meso-β-scale convective systems within the meso-α-scale cloud belt of the Mei-Yu front results in directly the event under the favorable large-scale circulation conditions. There are three rain-mass active periods corresponding to three different peak values of rainfall intensity in the time series of the event. The rain-mass activities in the first and the third periods are related to the continuous effect of the dispersive meso-scale convective complexes, while rain-mass activity in the second period is caused by the rapid development of the near surface meso-β-scale (about 100km long) convergence line, which induces the rapid and systematic development of convective cloud cells into meso-β-scale complexes. It is also shown that these meso-β-scale convective complexes are with strong reflectivity echoes (about 40—60dBz) in the middle and low atmosphere, and there are positive correlations between the echo intensities, vertical extensions of the meso-β-scale convective complexes and the surface precipitation intensities.
2006, 32(1):44-50.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.007
Abstract:
Two different Volume Coverage patterns are used for monitoring convective weather in CINRAD SA.Because of the difference in two VCPs, the products derived from base radar data through using meteorological algorithmsare different,too. In order to explain it,a new Volume Coverage pattern (VCP22) is established and the products from VCP11 and VCP22 are compared. It shows that the products had the same values in shallow convection and different values in deep convection within the range of 150km. Therefore,it is confirmed that VCP11-not VCP21-should be used when the deep convection is occurred within the range of 150km.
Two different Volume Coverage patterns are used for monitoring convective weather in CINRAD SA.Because of the difference in two VCPs, the products derived from base radar data through using meteorological algorithmsare different,too. In order to explain it,a new Volume Coverage pattern (VCP22) is established and the products from VCP11 and VCP22 are compared. It shows that the products had the same values in shallow convection and different values in deep convection within the range of 150km. Therefore,it is confirmed that VCP11-not VCP21-should be used when the deep convection is occurred within the range of 150km.
2006, 32(1):51-55.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.008
Abstract:
Based on the data of CINRAD and WSR-88D hail detection algorithm, the CINRAD hail detection algorithm codes are developed. With the observation data of 16 hailstorm cases, the algorithm is tested. The result shows that the algorithm works well in hailstorm detection and warnings. A method to reduce the high FAR is also discussed.
Based on the data of CINRAD and WSR-88D hail detection algorithm, the CINRAD hail detection algorithm codes are developed. With the observation data of 16 hailstorm cases, the algorithm is tested. The result shows that the algorithm works well in hailstorm detection and warnings. A method to reduce the high FAR is also discussed.
2006, 32(1):56-61.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.009
Abstract:
Based on the correlation and SVD methods, the relationship between the summer rainfall in Changjiang River basin and the SSTA of different seasons are studied. The results show that if the SSTA of EEP in winter and that of TWP and EI in summer is warmer than normal, the tropic monsoon will become weaker, and the subtropic monsoon will become stronger. The cold and warm airflow will converge in the Changjiang River basin and the Mei-yu front will be strengthend, then the rainfall of summer in Changjiang River will be much more than average.
Based on the correlation and SVD methods, the relationship between the summer rainfall in Changjiang River basin and the SSTA of different seasons are studied. The results show that if the SSTA of EEP in winter and that of TWP and EI in summer is warmer than normal, the tropic monsoon will become weaker, and the subtropic monsoon will become stronger. The cold and warm airflow will converge in the Changjiang River basin and the Mei-yu front will be strengthend, then the rainfall of summer in Changjiang River will be much more than average.
2006, 32(1):62-67.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.010
Abstract:
Based on the analysis of climatic characteristics of dust weather in winter-spring in Henan, some variables, which have close relationship with visibility and wind speed, are selected from the T213 Numerical Product as predicting factors (predictor), and then, with Kalman filtering method, the prediction equation of visibility and wind speed in spring and winter in Henan is developed. In terms of discriminative standard of dust weather, the quantitative dust weather forecast in spring and winter for the stations in Henan is realized. In the forecast operation, another two discriminative standard were added to eliminate the effect of liquid droplets on the visibility, therefore the prediction accuracy is increased.
Based on the analysis of climatic characteristics of dust weather in winter-spring in Henan, some variables, which have close relationship with visibility and wind speed, are selected from the T213 Numerical Product as predicting factors (predictor), and then, with Kalman filtering method, the prediction equation of visibility and wind speed in spring and winter in Henan is developed. In terms of discriminative standard of dust weather, the quantitative dust weather forecast in spring and winter for the stations in Henan is realized. In the forecast operation, another two discriminative standard were added to eliminate the effect of liquid droplets on the visibility, therefore the prediction accuracy is increased.
2006, 32(1):68-73.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.011
Abstract:
A synoptic analysis of a gale event caused by depression in Zhoushan Islands is made. The results show that vorticity advection, thermal advection and latent heat release made great contribution to the development of the depression. It is the downward transport of momentum which makes the surface gale at last.
A synoptic analysis of a gale event caused by depression in Zhoushan Islands is made. The results show that vorticity advection, thermal advection and latent heat release made great contribution to the development of the depression. It is the downward transport of momentum which makes the surface gale at last.
2006, 32(1):74-77.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.012
Abstract:
Taking the cloud top temperatures and their differences from previous an hour temperature, which cause corresponding rainfall over the area of the automatic observatory, as the input layer and the hourly rainfalls as output layer, four kinds of artificial neural network prediction models, which include dot model, line model, little-area model and large-area model are built for June—September tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting in Zhejiang province. After a lot of tests the results show that little-area model could grasp main rainfall factors in infrared satellite image, which include moving direction, moving speed, temperature, developing rate and TBB gradient. It features better ability of forecast and TBB preventing over-fitting.
Taking the cloud top temperatures and their differences from previous an hour temperature, which cause corresponding rainfall over the area of the automatic observatory, as the input layer and the hourly rainfalls as output layer, four kinds of artificial neural network prediction models, which include dot model, line model, little-area model and large-area model are built for June—September tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting in Zhejiang province. After a lot of tests the results show that little-area model could grasp main rainfall factors in infrared satellite image, which include moving direction, moving speed, temperature, developing rate and TBB gradient. It features better ability of forecast and TBB preventing over-fitting.
2006, 32(1):78-83.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.013
Abstract:
Based on the observation in the basic stations of the country and the interpolated data at these station points from the T106 model output for 1995—2000, the characteristics of the low-level atmospheric elements before and right at the fog occurrence over North China plain are analyzed. Moreover, the relationship between the elements distribution and occurrence frequency of fog is also given. The results indicate that the weak wind, relative humidity in the range of 80%—90%, the depression of dew point in the range of 2—4℃, stable or weak instable atmosphere and the surface temperature in the range of 3—9℃are favorable conditions for the occurrence of fog.
Based on the observation in the basic stations of the country and the interpolated data at these station points from the T106 model output for 1995—2000, the characteristics of the low-level atmospheric elements before and right at the fog occurrence over North China plain are analyzed. Moreover, the relationship between the elements distribution and occurrence frequency of fog is also given. The results indicate that the weak wind, relative humidity in the range of 80%—90%, the depression of dew point in the range of 2—4℃, stable or weak instable atmosphere and the surface temperature in the range of 3—9℃are favorable conditions for the occurrence of fog.
2006, 32(1):84-88.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.014
Abstract:
Based on the data of MICAPS system, the abrupt heavy rain event in Dehong, Yunnan province on July 5, 2004 is analyzed. The result showed that the event had something to do with the establishment of Yunnan-Burma high. The low-level tropospheric jet supplied indispensable condition of high unstable geopotential energy and plenty moisture. Tibetan high southward moving and T-shape shear line and trough-line from east of Tibet to west of Sichuan province deepening and southeastward moving were helpful to guide northern cold-air mass moved southward. The strong moisture transportation and convergence and strong updraft, mesoscale cloud cluster stimulated by synthetical effect of cold-air, warm and damp air stream and particular terrain lead to the heavy rainfall.
Based on the data of MICAPS system, the abrupt heavy rain event in Dehong, Yunnan province on July 5, 2004 is analyzed. The result showed that the event had something to do with the establishment of Yunnan-Burma high. The low-level tropospheric jet supplied indispensable condition of high unstable geopotential energy and plenty moisture. Tibetan high southward moving and T-shape shear line and trough-line from east of Tibet to west of Sichuan province deepening and southeastward moving were helpful to guide northern cold-air mass moved southward. The strong moisture transportation and convergence and strong updraft, mesoscale cloud cluster stimulated by synthetical effect of cold-air, warm and damp air stream and particular terrain lead to the heavy rainfall.
2006, 32(1):89-94.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.015
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological observations and Doppler radar data, an analysis of a snow event at Qingdao City from 17 to 18, February, 2005 is made. It shows that the low-level warm advection, the vertical wind shear and the high-level jet provided favorable dynamic conditions for the event, the middle-level southwest air flow and the surface layer moisture from the Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea provided the moisture conditions for the event. The intensity of the snowfall enhanced rapidly to the heaviest, as a meso-cyclone appeared over Qingdao at the 2.0—2.7km layer. And then, as the cyclonic wind field broke, the snowfall became weaker. The initial echo appeared at the 3.0—3.5km layer, and then, it extended downward and upward.
Based on the meteorological observations and Doppler radar data, an analysis of a snow event at Qingdao City from 17 to 18, February, 2005 is made. It shows that the low-level warm advection, the vertical wind shear and the high-level jet provided favorable dynamic conditions for the event, the middle-level southwest air flow and the surface layer moisture from the Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea provided the moisture conditions for the event. The intensity of the snowfall enhanced rapidly to the heaviest, as a meso-cyclone appeared over Qingdao at the 2.0—2.7km layer. And then, as the cyclonic wind field broke, the snowfall became weaker. The initial echo appeared at the 3.0—3.5km layer, and then, it extended downward and upward.
2006, 32(1):95-101.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.016
Abstract:
A heavy rain event in Guizhou on June 18:00—19:00(UTC), 2002, is simulated with meso-scale numerical model(MM5). With the basic physical parameters from the model output, the potential equivalent temperature and vertical velocity are analyzed, and calculation of the helicity and the barotropic and baroclinic moist potential vorticity(MPV) are made. The diagnosis results are as follows. The center of the rainfall is adjacent to the maximum vertical velocity. The southern and northern meridional-vertical circulations are significant to the in- and out-flow on the lower and upper level, respectively. The change of the helicity is a good indicator for the evolution of the rainfall intensity. The heavy rainfall area lie in the dense part of helicity isograms. The occurrence, intensification and decay of the event is corresponding to that of the funnel-like MPV1 high value area. Moreover, the overlapping of the positive MPV1 at the upper-level and negative MPV1 at the low-level is advantageous to the appearance and development of the event. The positive MPV2 area at 500hPa is well corresponding to the convective rainfall area, and they have in phase changes.
A heavy rain event in Guizhou on June 18:00—19:00(UTC), 2002, is simulated with meso-scale numerical model(MM5). With the basic physical parameters from the model output, the potential equivalent temperature and vertical velocity are analyzed, and calculation of the helicity and the barotropic and baroclinic moist potential vorticity(MPV) are made. The diagnosis results are as follows. The center of the rainfall is adjacent to the maximum vertical velocity. The southern and northern meridional-vertical circulations are significant to the in- and out-flow on the lower and upper level, respectively. The change of the helicity is a good indicator for the evolution of the rainfall intensity. The heavy rainfall area lie in the dense part of helicity isograms. The occurrence, intensification and decay of the event is corresponding to that of the funnel-like MPV1 high value area. Moreover, the overlapping of the positive MPV1 at the upper-level and negative MPV1 at the low-level is advantageous to the appearance and development of the event. The positive MPV2 area at 500hPa is well corresponding to the convective rainfall area, and they have in phase changes.
2006, 32(1):102-106.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.017
Abstract:
A heavy rainfall event in the eastern Fujian in 2002 is analyzed. The results show that helicity and CAPE are significant predictors to a heavy rainfall. The rainfall is generated where exist the positive helicity center at low-level and negative helicity center at high-level and high storage energy of potential instable at middle and low levels. The helicity is positive at upper levers and negative at low levels during the time of rainfall prosperity, and its maximum is at 700hPa. The high CAPE value is coincident with the center of the rainfall. The time and spatial variation of CAPE is well corresponding to that of rainfall. Based on the output of the mesoscale numerical model, the instable energy field is studied. It turns out that the release of potential instable energy may be one of mechanism for a heavy rainstorm genesis and development.
A heavy rainfall event in the eastern Fujian in 2002 is analyzed. The results show that helicity and CAPE are significant predictors to a heavy rainfall. The rainfall is generated where exist the positive helicity center at low-level and negative helicity center at high-level and high storage energy of potential instable at middle and low levels. The helicity is positive at upper levers and negative at low levels during the time of rainfall prosperity, and its maximum is at 700hPa. The high CAPE value is coincident with the center of the rainfall. The time and spatial variation of CAPE is well corresponding to that of rainfall. Based on the output of the mesoscale numerical model, the instable energy field is studied. It turns out that the release of potential instable energy may be one of mechanism for a heavy rainstorm genesis and development.
2006, 32(1):107-112.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.018
Abstract:
Based on the fatal forest fire data from 15 to 18 April 2003 in Diebu, meteorological data and EOS/MODIS data from May 2002 to April 2003,the Meteorological Conditions of the fire are analyzed.The result shows that higher air temperature and fewer precipitation in winter and spring,and long-term drought are the primary climate background of the fatal forest fire in the south of Gansu.The characteristics of 500hPa mean circulation of drought are as follow. There is a strong ridge at Xinjiang and a deep trough at the eastern coast of Eurasia. Cold front moved to south of Gansu and southerly wind developing is one of circulation features of fire in the south of Gansu. Continual increase of air temperature and continual decrease of humidity are the important conditions to fire happen and extend.It shows that the soil humidity can be reflected by EOS/MODIS,which is the most effective means to detect the happening of the fire, estimate the fire area of the fire.
Based on the fatal forest fire data from 15 to 18 April 2003 in Diebu, meteorological data and EOS/MODIS data from May 2002 to April 2003,the Meteorological Conditions of the fire are analyzed.The result shows that higher air temperature and fewer precipitation in winter and spring,and long-term drought are the primary climate background of the fatal forest fire in the south of Gansu.The characteristics of 500hPa mean circulation of drought are as follow. There is a strong ridge at Xinjiang and a deep trough at the eastern coast of Eurasia. Cold front moved to south of Gansu and southerly wind developing is one of circulation features of fire in the south of Gansu. Continual increase of air temperature and continual decrease of humidity are the important conditions to fire happen and extend.It shows that the soil humidity can be reflected by EOS/MODIS,which is the most effective means to detect the happening of the fire, estimate the fire area of the fire.
2006, 32(1):113-116.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.1.019
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological observations and the peach florescence at Guigang, Guangxi from 1983 to 2004, the relationship between the winter climatic characteristics and the peach florescence at Guigang, Guangxi is analyzed. It shows that when there is more rainfall in winter and lower air temperature in the last two dekad of December, higher air temperature from the last ten days of January to the last ten days of February, the peach florescence will be earlier than normal. A peach florescence forecast model is oestablished by the Fuzy mathmatics method.
Based on the meteorological observations and the peach florescence at Guigang, Guangxi from 1983 to 2004, the relationship between the winter climatic characteristics and the peach florescence at Guigang, Guangxi is analyzed. It shows that when there is more rainfall in winter and lower air temperature in the last two dekad of December, higher air temperature from the last ten days of January to the last ten days of February, the peach florescence will be earlier than normal. A peach florescence forecast model is oestablished by the Fuzy mathmatics method.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P