ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 31,Issue 8,2005 Table of Contents
2005, 31(8):3-7.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.001
Abstract:
A unified briefing of data interpolation of climatic data, objective analysis of numerical weather forecast and downscaling technique of climate modeling is presented. However, it is an emphasis on the principle and advance of climatic data interpolation. Because of the distinctness of its application fields, these techniques are also different, but their dynamic and statistical principles are close or nearly the same. In recent ten years, three kinds of data interpolation technique, especially on the automatic computer system of data interpolation, have made progress greatly.
A unified briefing of data interpolation of climatic data, objective analysis of numerical weather forecast and downscaling technique of climate modeling is presented. However, it is an emphasis on the principle and advance of climatic data interpolation. Because of the distinctness of its application fields, these techniques are also different, but their dynamic and statistical principles are close or nearly the same. In recent ten years, three kinds of data interpolation technique, especially on the automatic computer system of data interpolation, have made progress greatly.
2005, 31(8):8-13.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.002
Abstract:
The outputs of the η mesoscale numerical simulation, the observational data, the infrared cloud image from GMS and the TBB data are employed to study the structure and formation of a low vortex on the shear line and the sources of the cold air. The results show that the low vortex in this process belongs to the meso-α scale, with 7-hour duration. In the mature phase, the center of the positive vorticity is coincident with that of the vortex, and the 700hPa low-level jet and the strong convergent center located in its southeast quadrant. The vortex circulation is made up of three currents, with the super-strong divergence column, the vertical vorticity column, and the deep ascending motion region above. The deep ascending motion is coupled with the strong divergence. The centers of the strong convergence (divergence) emerged at the positions of the convergence (divergence) of southerly and northerly, accompanying with the strong vertical shear of meridional wind. In addition, there is a negative vorticity center over the low-level positive vorticity center. It is also found that the maximum vapor convergence located at 700hPa and 550hPa and that the cold air is mainly derived from the high over Yunnan to Burma at the 500hPa.
The outputs of the η mesoscale numerical simulation, the observational data, the infrared cloud image from GMS and the TBB data are employed to study the structure and formation of a low vortex on the shear line and the sources of the cold air. The results show that the low vortex in this process belongs to the meso-α scale, with 7-hour duration. In the mature phase, the center of the positive vorticity is coincident with that of the vortex, and the 700hPa low-level jet and the strong convergent center located in its southeast quadrant. The vortex circulation is made up of three currents, with the super-strong divergence column, the vertical vorticity column, and the deep ascending motion region above. The deep ascending motion is coupled with the strong divergence. The centers of the strong convergence (divergence) emerged at the positions of the convergence (divergence) of southerly and northerly, accompanying with the strong vertical shear of meridional wind. In addition, there is a negative vorticity center over the low-level positive vorticity center. It is also found that the maximum vapor convergence located at 700hPa and 550hPa and that the cold air is mainly derived from the high over Yunnan to Burma at the 500hPa.
2005, 31(8):14-18.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.003
Abstract:
A local heavy rainfall event in Ningshan, Shaanxi Province on 28-29 August 2003 is diagnosed. The results show that the event occurred in a weak convection condition with convergence at high and low-level against strong convection. Vortex and inverted trough at 850hPa to 700hPa supplied plentiful vapor and powerful updraft. Several air currents from different way with different characters encountered in Ningshan, strong vapor convergence is a main factor of this event.
A local heavy rainfall event in Ningshan, Shaanxi Province on 28-29 August 2003 is diagnosed. The results show that the event occurred in a weak convection condition with convergence at high and low-level against strong convection. Vortex and inverted trough at 850hPa to 700hPa supplied plentiful vapor and powerful updraft. Several air currents from different way with different characters encountered in Ningshan, strong vapor convergence is a main factor of this event.
2005, 31(8):18-21.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.004
Abstract:
The total NPP on the agricultural land has been estimated in the period of crop growth from 1996 to 2000 with the global 10-day composite NDVI data. The agricultural production is a part of NPP(Net Primary Production) on the agricultural land. By considering the relation between agricultural NPP and agricultural production, the conversion efficiency of agricultural production from agricultural NPP is made. The agricultural production is estimated based on agricultural NPP and the conversion efficiency. It shows that the accuracy of the model is very satisfactory. The model can be used in the operational crop production forecast.
The total NPP on the agricultural land has been estimated in the period of crop growth from 1996 to 2000 with the global 10-day composite NDVI data. The agricultural production is a part of NPP(Net Primary Production) on the agricultural land. By considering the relation between agricultural NPP and agricultural production, the conversion efficiency of agricultural production from agricultural NPP is made. The agricultural production is estimated based on agricultural NPP and the conversion efficiency. It shows that the accuracy of the model is very satisfactory. The model can be used in the operational crop production forecast.
2005, 31(8):22-24.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.005
Abstract:
Base on the data of temperature and relative humidity inside of the middle of the four arch plastid greenhouse of non-heating at 1.5m in height during the period of December 1999 to August 2002. The quantitative relation equations are developed for average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity of the whole day between the inside and outside weather elements under different weather conditions(sunny,cloudy,overcast) in different seasons by means of the step-regression method. The technical reference would be provided to choose vegetable variety,plant standardized vegetables and free-pollution vegetable production and prevent disease and insect in the microclimate field.
Base on the data of temperature and relative humidity inside of the middle of the four arch plastid greenhouse of non-heating at 1.5m in height during the period of December 1999 to August 2002. The quantitative relation equations are developed for average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity of the whole day between the inside and outside weather elements under different weather conditions(sunny,cloudy,overcast) in different seasons by means of the step-regression method. The technical reference would be provided to choose vegetable variety,plant standardized vegetables and free-pollution vegetable production and prevent disease and insect in the microclimate field.
2005, 31(8):25-30.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.006
Abstract:
Based on the data observed by KOUN radar of USA on the two convective rainfall events on May 10th and June 12th in 2003, a method of estimating liquid precipitation is developed by eliminating the hail echo from hybridtype precipitation echo. This method ensures hail has no influence on estimating rainfall rate. By analysis of the differences of the four methods on estimating rain intensity at S band of dual linear polarization Doppler radar, the influence of KDPnumerical method on the estimating rainfall is also studied here. The conclusion is that there is great difference in the four estimation methods and the KDP method is not fit to estimate precipitation when the rain intensity is weak.
Based on the data observed by KOUN radar of USA on the two convective rainfall events on May 10th and June 12th in 2003, a method of estimating liquid precipitation is developed by eliminating the hail echo from hybridtype precipitation echo. This method ensures hail has no influence on estimating rainfall rate. By analysis of the differences of the four methods on estimating rain intensity at S band of dual linear polarization Doppler radar, the influence of KDPnumerical method on the estimating rainfall is also studied here. The conclusion is that there is great difference in the four estimation methods and the KDP method is not fit to estimate precipitation when the rain intensity is weak.
2005, 31(8):31-36.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.007
Abstract:
Artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to make categorical forecasting of short-term precipitation in Meiyu period of Nanjing. At first, based on the weather characteristics of Meiyu period, in terms of the statistical and dynamic method, the predictors are searched in data of HLAFS. Secondly, utilizing import predictors that are selected by two methods trains the ANN, and then five days precipitation data are taken out in order to test the level forecast of precipitation. The results show that the simulating effect is very well and the ability of short-term precipitation forecast is obviously improved.
Artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to make categorical forecasting of short-term precipitation in Meiyu period of Nanjing. At first, based on the weather characteristics of Meiyu period, in terms of the statistical and dynamic method, the predictors are searched in data of HLAFS. Secondly, utilizing import predictors that are selected by two methods trains the ANN, and then five days precipitation data are taken out in order to test the level forecast of precipitation. The results show that the simulating effect is very well and the ability of short-term precipitation forecast is obviously improved.
2005, 31(8):37-41.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.08.008
Abstract:
Based on the recording precipitation data in 1980-2002 at 12 meteorological stations over Hehuang valley of Qinghai Province, the spatial characteristic and its instability of different time as well as design heavy rainfall in various time interval and frequency over the valley is analyzed. The result shows that the maximum rainfall in various time interval over the valley appears increasing. With the delaying of precipitation time and increasing of rainfall, its tendency rate has been increasing while the periodic wave of interannual variation is becoming slowly, and the spatial distribution characteristic of maximum rainfall's average in each time interval is getting close to spatial distribution of annual precipitation, and topography has significant impact on the spatial distribution of the heavy rainfall. The maximum rainfall in 30 minutes is extremely instable. In the meantime, with the delaying of precipitation time interval, the stability of maximum rainfall is inclined to increasing. The distribution of maximum rainfall in each time interval appears skew, and the spatial distribution of maximum rainfall of different frequency in each time interval is generally consistent with observational data, but less instable than it.
Based on the recording precipitation data in 1980-2002 at 12 meteorological stations over Hehuang valley of Qinghai Province, the spatial characteristic and its instability of different time as well as design heavy rainfall in various time interval and frequency over the valley is analyzed. The result shows that the maximum rainfall in various time interval over the valley appears increasing. With the delaying of precipitation time and increasing of rainfall, its tendency rate has been increasing while the periodic wave of interannual variation is becoming slowly, and the spatial distribution characteristic of maximum rainfall's average in each time interval is getting close to spatial distribution of annual precipitation, and topography has significant impact on the spatial distribution of the heavy rainfall. The maximum rainfall in 30 minutes is extremely instable. In the meantime, with the delaying of precipitation time interval, the stability of maximum rainfall is inclined to increasing. The distribution of maximum rainfall in each time interval appears skew, and the spatial distribution of maximum rainfall of different frequency in each time interval is generally consistent with observational data, but less instable than it.
2005, 31(8):42-45.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.009
Abstract:
The features of mountainous heavy rainfall under NW flow are introduced. The prediction indicator set for the events is given with stepwise decreasing FAR method. The importance of rain mass moving direction is discussed as well.
The features of mountainous heavy rainfall under NW flow are introduced. The prediction indicator set for the events is given with stepwise decreasing FAR method. The importance of rain mass moving direction is discussed as well.
2005, 31(8):46-50.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.010
Abstract:
Based on the total and low cloud cover, cloud form, precipitation data of 24 weather stations in Ningxia from 1971 to 2000, reanalyzed data of NCEP/NCAR in the same period, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation of stratiform cloud, convective cloud and mixed cloud and the circulation correspondingly are investigated. The results show that the number of precipitation times of stratiform cloud is much higher than that of the others and stratiform cloud precipitation is the main type of rainfall in 30 years. The heavy and torrential rainfalls are caused by mixed clouds. In the southern part of Ningxia, the stratiform cloud precipitation plays an important role, and in the northern part, convective and mixed cloud precipitations are crucial. Based on the results above, the suitable precipitation enhancing operation modes are discussed under different circulation and weather conditions.
Based on the total and low cloud cover, cloud form, precipitation data of 24 weather stations in Ningxia from 1971 to 2000, reanalyzed data of NCEP/NCAR in the same period, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation of stratiform cloud, convective cloud and mixed cloud and the circulation correspondingly are investigated. The results show that the number of precipitation times of stratiform cloud is much higher than that of the others and stratiform cloud precipitation is the main type of rainfall in 30 years. The heavy and torrential rainfalls are caused by mixed clouds. In the southern part of Ningxia, the stratiform cloud precipitation plays an important role, and in the northern part, convective and mixed cloud precipitations are crucial. Based on the results above, the suitable precipitation enhancing operation modes are discussed under different circulation and weather conditions.
2005, 31(8):50-53.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.08.011
Abstract:
Some general methods and basic models are presented for the determination of the uncertainty in the measurement of humidity, and some issues that should be taken with care are discussed.
Some general methods and basic models are presented for the determination of the uncertainty in the measurement of humidity, and some issues that should be taken with care are discussed.
2005, 31(8):54-56.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.012
Abstract:
With the echo data of Zhengzhou 714CD Doppler radar from May to August from 2002 to 2004, the severe convective echoes that move towards Zhengzhou within 90km (echo intensity≥50dBz, echo height≥9km) and produced near Zhengzhou are investigated. The relationship between thunderstorm outflow boundary and severe convective weather in Zhengzhou, and the impact of strong echoes without outflow boundary on weather of Zhengzhou are analyzed.
With the echo data of Zhengzhou 714CD Doppler radar from May to August from 2002 to 2004, the severe convective echoes that move towards Zhengzhou within 90km (echo intensity≥50dBz, echo height≥9km) and produced near Zhengzhou are investigated. The relationship between thunderstorm outflow boundary and severe convective weather in Zhengzhou, and the impact of strong echoes without outflow boundary on weather of Zhengzhou are analyzed.
2005, 31(8):57-61.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.013
Abstract:
After the severe tropical storm Mindulle Landed on Leqing, Zhejiang Province several hours,the blast was suddenly blowing over Taihu lake 300km far from the storm Mindulle. The wind speed of Taihu lake reached 29.3m·s-1 at the southern bank of the lake at 1300 July 3,2004 observed at an auto-weather station, which exceeded the maximum speed of the storm center and its path region. It has never appeared such event in Huzhou,and rarely appeared in typhoon record. It is studied that the physical mechanism of the strong wind appears over Taihu lake area.
After the severe tropical storm Mindulle Landed on Leqing, Zhejiang Province several hours,the blast was suddenly blowing over Taihu lake 300km far from the storm Mindulle. The wind speed of Taihu lake reached 29.3m·s-1 at the southern bank of the lake at 1300 July 3,2004 observed at an auto-weather station, which exceeded the maximum speed of the storm center and its path region. It has never appeared such event in Huzhou,and rarely appeared in typhoon record. It is studied that the physical mechanism of the strong wind appears over Taihu lake area.
2005, 31(8):62-65.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.08.014
Abstract:
Typhoon Dujuan (0313) is the most intense tropical cyclone that has struck Zhujiang River Delta since Typhoon Hope (7908). Based on the detailed observational data, it is found that there are obvious characteristics in Typhoon Dujuan and these characteristics are closely related with the atmospheric circulation, corresponding synoptic systems and Dujuan's structure and its changes.
Typhoon Dujuan (0313) is the most intense tropical cyclone that has struck Zhujiang River Delta since Typhoon Hope (7908). Based on the detailed observational data, it is found that there are obvious characteristics in Typhoon Dujuan and these characteristics are closely related with the atmospheric circulation, corresponding synoptic systems and Dujuan's structure and its changes.
2005, 31(8):66-70.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.015
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological data of more than thirty years, the distribution of wind speed and direction are analyzed when various routes typhoons influencing Shanghai. When a landing typhoon influencing Shanghai, wind speed of the southern area is the largest, dominant wind direction is bias E. While the influencing typhoon is offshore and moving north, wind speed of eastern area is the largest, NNE is the dominant wind direction. The development of the city makes wind speed clearly reduce during the period of typhoon influencing Shanghai.
Based on the meteorological data of more than thirty years, the distribution of wind speed and direction are analyzed when various routes typhoons influencing Shanghai. When a landing typhoon influencing Shanghai, wind speed of the southern area is the largest, dominant wind direction is bias E. While the influencing typhoon is offshore and moving north, wind speed of eastern area is the largest, NNE is the dominant wind direction. The development of the city makes wind speed clearly reduce during the period of typhoon influencing Shanghai.
2005, 31(8):71-73.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.016
Abstract:
With moving average, moving variance method, analysis of the temperature and precipitation of Dalian during 1951-2001 is made. It shows that the temperature of Dalian has the obvious warm tendency and the precipitation of Dalian has the decrease tendency. The changes of temperature are different in the four seasons. During the 50 years, the rise of temperature in winter is the most obvious, but the rise range of temperature in winter has been descent, and the range of temperature in summer has been increased. The climate of Dalian is becoming warmer and drier. In addition, the serious cold/warm winter events and the rainless stage and pluvial stage in Dalian are also studies.
With moving average, moving variance method, analysis of the temperature and precipitation of Dalian during 1951-2001 is made. It shows that the temperature of Dalian has the obvious warm tendency and the precipitation of Dalian has the decrease tendency. The changes of temperature are different in the four seasons. During the 50 years, the rise of temperature in winter is the most obvious, but the rise range of temperature in winter has been descent, and the range of temperature in summer has been increased. The climate of Dalian is becoming warmer and drier. In addition, the serious cold/warm winter events and the rainless stage and pluvial stage in Dalian are also studies.
2005, 31(8):74-76.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.017
Abstract:
Base on the surface observations of forty years(1960-2000),the variational characteristics of annual average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature in Harbin are analyzed. The results show that the whole area of Harbin has become notably warmer,but their warm extent is different,the observation stations close to city are evidently warmer than the suburbs,especially after the 1980's. There is also an evident difference in four seasons,the warm trend is evident in winter than that in summer. After 1980's,the cold duration evidently decreases,but the duration of "warm night" and hot evidently increases.
Base on the surface observations of forty years(1960-2000),the variational characteristics of annual average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature in Harbin are analyzed. The results show that the whole area of Harbin has become notably warmer,but their warm extent is different,the observation stations close to city are evidently warmer than the suburbs,especially after the 1980's. There is also an evident difference in four seasons,the warm trend is evident in winter than that in summer. After 1980's,the cold duration evidently decreases,but the duration of "warm night" and hot evidently increases.
2005, 31(8):77-80.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.018
Abstract:
To meet the needs of agriculture continuable development, an operational system of moisture prediction system is developed in Henan Province. It can be used to predict the soil moisture within a month correctly. The product also can provide irrigating suggestions for higher profit both in yield and economy, according to the growing characteristics of crops.
To meet the needs of agriculture continuable development, an operational system of moisture prediction system is developed in Henan Province. It can be used to predict the soil moisture within a month correctly. The product also can provide irrigating suggestions for higher profit both in yield and economy, according to the growing characteristics of crops.
2005, 31(8):81-83.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.8.019
Abstract:
Statistical forecast method is used to develop a short-term forecast model of the daily total solar energy indexes. A half-automatic forecasting system of the solar energy is developed that will be helpful to users to take the most advantage of solar energy and save the electric power.
Statistical forecast method is used to develop a short-term forecast model of the daily total solar energy indexes. A half-automatic forecasting system of the solar energy is developed that will be helpful to users to take the most advantage of solar energy and save the electric power.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P