ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 31,Issue 7,2005 Table of Contents
2005, 31(7):3-5.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.001
Abstract:
The comment on statistical test of correlation coefficients and others are given. The statistical test is used to apply to some analysis of climate variation of meteorological elements. The conclusions are that it should be call as “significant test” and “significant level of 5%”, rather than as “confidence test” and “confidence level of 95%”.
The comment on statistical test of correlation coefficients and others are given. The statistical test is used to apply to some analysis of climate variation of meteorological elements. The conclusions are that it should be call as “significant test” and “significant level of 5%”, rather than as “confidence test” and “confidence level of 95%”.
2005, 31(7):6-9.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.002
Abstract:
The meanings and methods of several drought indices such as precipitation anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index etc. are presented and compared. The operational drought monitoring systems in the U.S.A. and China are also (introduced,) (including) the monitoring tools, magnitudes of drought and assessments of drought impacts.
The meanings and methods of several drought indices such as precipitation anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index etc. are presented and compared. The operational drought monitoring systems in the U.S.A. and China are also (introduced,) (including) the monitoring tools, magnitudes of drought and assessments of drought impacts.
2005, 31(7):10-15.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.003
Abstract:
With the Outing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data sets observed by the NOAA satellites, the diagnostic analyses of the OLR characteristics over the tropical and subtropical regions and its (impacts) on the unusual weather processes in China in the summer of 2003 are done. The results show that the ITCZ distributing over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are stronger than (usual), while that over the South China Sea is weaker than (usual) in the summer of 2003, the anomalous OLR in the east of the Philipine Islands is anomalously higher than (usual), the anomalously inactive convective region is the main factor leading to fewer typhoons than (usual). Moreover, the subtropical Anticyclone in the West Pacific Ocean described by the area in which OLR is more than 250W·m(-2) is characterized by the relative stability in the north-south direction and the oscillation in the east-west direction, which is one of the primary reasons causing the higher temperature over South China in the summer of 2003.
With the Outing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data sets observed by the NOAA satellites, the diagnostic analyses of the OLR characteristics over the tropical and subtropical regions and its (impacts) on the unusual weather processes in China in the summer of 2003 are done. The results show that the ITCZ distributing over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are stronger than (usual), while that over the South China Sea is weaker than (usual) in the summer of 2003, the anomalous OLR in the east of the Philipine Islands is anomalously higher than (usual), the anomalously inactive convective region is the main factor leading to fewer typhoons than (usual). Moreover, the subtropical Anticyclone in the West Pacific Ocean described by the area in which OLR is more than 250W·m(-2) is characterized by the relative stability in the north-south direction and the oscillation in the east-west direction, which is one of the primary reasons causing the higher temperature over South China in the summer of 2003.
2005, 31(7):16-19.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.07.004
Abstract:
Five quantitative and two qualitative identification indexes of hail cloud are found by analysis of radar echoes and hailfall data in the north of Weihe River in Shaanxi Province. It shows that the indexes can conveniently identify hail cloud before the hailfall shooting, and then to gain the time for hail suppression.
Five quantitative and two qualitative identification indexes of hail cloud are found by analysis of radar echoes and hailfall data in the north of Weihe River in Shaanxi Province. It shows that the indexes can conveniently identify hail cloud before the hailfall shooting, and then to gain the time for hail suppression.
2005, 31(7):20-23.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.005
Abstract:
The meso-scale strong convection weather system is successfully simulated with a meso-scale numerical model, that leads to a hail weather in Shenyang on June the 28th in 2003.Combining intensive observations, convertional data and model output products, the meso-scale synoptic system is analyzed particularly. The diagnosis is done. The mechanism of Shenyang hail is discussed.
The meso-scale strong convection weather system is successfully simulated with a meso-scale numerical model, that leads to a hail weather in Shenyang on June the 28th in 2003.Combining intensive observations, convertional data and model output products, the meso-scale synoptic system is analyzed particularly. The diagnosis is done. The mechanism of Shenyang hail is discussed.
2005, 31(7):24-27.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.006
Abstract:
Synoptic characteristics and meteorological elements related to torrid weather of 37℃ or more in Guangzhou since 1951 are analyzed. It is found that the torrid weather usually occur in such situation with a ridge to the northwest of Guangzhou and a trough to the southeast of it and closely related to subtropical high and tropical cyclones. As the result of the influence of those two systems, subsidence is found around Guangzhou in most cases. It is also shown that northerly winds at surface and lower level are of aid to torrid weather. Furthermore, the temperature and precipitation in the preceding one or two days are involved in torrid weather.
Synoptic characteristics and meteorological elements related to torrid weather of 37℃ or more in Guangzhou since 1951 are analyzed. It is found that the torrid weather usually occur in such situation with a ridge to the northwest of Guangzhou and a trough to the southeast of it and closely related to subtropical high and tropical cyclones. As the result of the influence of those two systems, subsidence is found around Guangzhou in most cases. It is also shown that northerly winds at surface and lower level are of aid to torrid weather. Furthermore, the temperature and precipitation in the preceding one or two days are involved in torrid weather.
2005, 31(7):28-31.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.007
Abstract:
Based on seasonal and annual mean temperature, mean maximum and minimum temperature for the last 52 years of Haikou, their change tendency are investigated. Results show that seasonal and annual mean temperature have obviously increasing tendency, specially for winter and annual cases. The asymmetric change of maximum and minimum is distinct, temperature increase mainly at night. The mean minimum or the extreme minimum temperature has clear increasing tendency, otherwise temperature in daytime hasn't. All the daily range of temperature have decreasing tendency. Seasonal and annual temperature's paroxysmal increase mainly happen at night, and the summer daytime temperature has paroxysmal decrease in the early stage.
Based on seasonal and annual mean temperature, mean maximum and minimum temperature for the last 52 years of Haikou, their change tendency are investigated. Results show that seasonal and annual mean temperature have obviously increasing tendency, specially for winter and annual cases. The asymmetric change of maximum and minimum is distinct, temperature increase mainly at night. The mean minimum or the extreme minimum temperature has clear increasing tendency, otherwise temperature in daytime hasn't. All the daily range of temperature have decreasing tendency. Seasonal and annual temperature's paroxysmal increase mainly happen at night, and the summer daytime temperature has paroxysmal decrease in the early stage.
2005, 31(7):32-37.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.008
Abstract:
There was a heavy high temperature and drought event and disasters in a large area of Yunnan Province in the summer of 2003, it is one of the heaviest ones in Yunnan since 1961, its influencing area, sustaining duration and harm extent, is the second place except 1983. It is a summer extreme climate event since the mid 1980s during which Yunnan entered a warming phase. The summer drought disaster has been diagnosed by using data of height fields at 500hPa, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Temperature of Black Body(TBB) at cloud top. The main causes that lead to the persisting high temperature and drought event in Yunnan are found that the position and intensity of the Western Pacific subtropical high at 500hPa consistently located to the west and stronger than average and the monsoon depression also located to the west and weaker than average respectively. TBB and OLR values over Yunnan are greater than the average. Rainfall cloud system is seldom, and the convective activities is inhibition.
There was a heavy high temperature and drought event and disasters in a large area of Yunnan Province in the summer of 2003, it is one of the heaviest ones in Yunnan since 1961, its influencing area, sustaining duration and harm extent, is the second place except 1983. It is a summer extreme climate event since the mid 1980s during which Yunnan entered a warming phase. The summer drought disaster has been diagnosed by using data of height fields at 500hPa, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Temperature of Black Body(TBB) at cloud top. The main causes that lead to the persisting high temperature and drought event in Yunnan are found that the position and intensity of the Western Pacific subtropical high at 500hPa consistently located to the west and stronger than average and the monsoon depression also located to the west and weaker than average respectively. TBB and OLR values over Yunnan are greater than the average. Rainfall cloud system is seldom, and the convective activities is inhibition.
2005, 31(7):37-41.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.009
Abstract:
Based on the evaluation of the drought in the south of the Yangtze river in the summer of 2003, the cause of the drought is analyzed. The result shows that in the same period of the drought, the polar vortex at 500hPa slant to the west hemisphere, in the middle and high latitude in Asia and Europe, there are two troughs and one ridge. The west wind front zone exists in the vicinity of 40°N, the west pacific subtropical high controls the south of the Yangtze river steadily for a long time.
Based on the evaluation of the drought in the south of the Yangtze river in the summer of 2003, the cause of the drought is analyzed. The result shows that in the same period of the drought, the polar vortex at 500hPa slant to the west hemisphere, in the middle and high latitude in Asia and Europe, there are two troughs and one ridge. The west wind front zone exists in the vicinity of 40°N, the west pacific subtropical high controls the south of the Yangtze river steadily for a long time.
2005, 31(7):42-44.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.07.010
Abstract:
The ralationship between high temperature in northern Zhejiang Province and at height field 500hPa and its index since 1960 is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of high tempereture in northern Zhejiang has closer relation with the westerly trough for the previous period.There are well positive correlation with the convergence belt from the Indian Occan to the Pacific Ocean and negative correlation with the indexs of Eurasia longitude correlation in April. The dates on which Bai-u duration begins and ends are also important indicators to the high temperature in northern Zhejiang. It is very rare that the high temperature of northern Zhejiang in 2003 occurred in larger area and for longer time and earier and stronger and severer disaster.
The ralationship between high temperature in northern Zhejiang Province and at height field 500hPa and its index since 1960 is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of high tempereture in northern Zhejiang has closer relation with the westerly trough for the previous period.There are well positive correlation with the convergence belt from the Indian Occan to the Pacific Ocean and negative correlation with the indexs of Eurasia longitude correlation in April. The dates on which Bai-u duration begins and ends are also important indicators to the high temperature in northern Zhejiang. It is very rare that the high temperature of northern Zhejiang in 2003 occurred in larger area and for longer time and earier and stronger and severer disaster.
2005, 31(7):45-48.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.011
Abstract:
By analysis of the path, the gale disaster, and the general circulation of typhoon Inbudo, it shows that ①the subtropical high moves westwards and leads the typhoon to move westwards for a stable period, ②the gale disaster is due to the rise of the pressure gradient between the subtropical high and the typhoon,③the southwest jetstream in tropic brought abundant vapor and instability energy to Guangxi is the main reason of the heavy rainfall.
By analysis of the path, the gale disaster, and the general circulation of typhoon Inbudo, it shows that ①the subtropical high moves westwards and leads the typhoon to move westwards for a stable period, ②the gale disaster is due to the rise of the pressure gradient between the subtropical high and the typhoon,③the southwest jetstream in tropic brought abundant vapor and instability energy to Guangxi is the main reason of the heavy rainfall.
2005, 31(7):49-53.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.012
Abstract:
In the context of monthly mean temperature of six hundred stations in China from 1961 to 2000 and the temperature output of seven IPCC models (CCC,CCSR,CSIRO,DKRZ,GFDL,HADL,NCAR )only considering the effect of greenhouse gases are analyzed. Results show that (1) These IPCC models certainly have the capability of modeling temperature changes in China, generally, HADL model is the best in simulating temperature changes over china in seven models, then is CCSR, DKRZ, average of seven models, CSIRO, NCAR, CCC, GFDL.(2) The simulating effects in the low latitude region are better than that in the middle latitude region and high latitude region and the simulating effects in the middle region are better than that in the east region and west region, besides, simulating effects in the middle latitude region are better than that of high latitude region, simulating effects in the east region are better than that of the west region. (3) The temperature of six hundred stations in China and the output of IPCC models have rising trend, the same as the global warming trend of climate.
In the context of monthly mean temperature of six hundred stations in China from 1961 to 2000 and the temperature output of seven IPCC models (CCC,CCSR,CSIRO,DKRZ,GFDL,HADL,NCAR )only considering the effect of greenhouse gases are analyzed. Results show that (1) These IPCC models certainly have the capability of modeling temperature changes in China, generally, HADL model is the best in simulating temperature changes over china in seven models, then is CCSR, DKRZ, average of seven models, CSIRO, NCAR, CCC, GFDL.(2) The simulating effects in the low latitude region are better than that in the middle latitude region and high latitude region and the simulating effects in the middle region are better than that in the east region and west region, besides, simulating effects in the middle latitude region are better than that of high latitude region, simulating effects in the east region are better than that of the west region. (3) The temperature of six hundred stations in China and the output of IPCC models have rising trend, the same as the global warming trend of climate.
2005, 31(7):54-58.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.013
Abstract:
A new airborne AgI flame seeding generator in Cheyenne ⅢA was used in the project of the Beijing field experiment in 2004. It is one of the most important field experiments in the national key research project “the demonstration of precipitation enhancement techniques”. The seeding data was recorded while the Beijing field experiment from April to September. These data are analyzed, and the technique how to record the seeding data with the new airborne AgI flame seeding generator in Cheyenne ⅢA is discussed.
A new airborne AgI flame seeding generator in Cheyenne ⅢA was used in the project of the Beijing field experiment in 2004. It is one of the most important field experiments in the national key research project “the demonstration of precipitation enhancement techniques”. The seeding data was recorded while the Beijing field experiment from April to September. These data are analyzed, and the technique how to record the seeding data with the new airborne AgI flame seeding generator in Cheyenne ⅢA is discussed.
2005, 31(7):59-62.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.014
Abstract:
A thunderstorm on 11 August 2003 in Ningbo is analyzed with the NEXRAD, the movement and (the width of the area) passing areas with radar echo intensity more than 30dBz are well (related) to the storm precipitation and rainfall intensity, the products of OPH and VIL can help locate the center of the maximum precipitations.
A thunderstorm on 11 August 2003 in Ningbo is analyzed with the NEXRAD, the movement and (the width of the area) passing areas with radar echo intensity more than 30dBz are well (related) to the storm precipitation and rainfall intensity, the products of OPH and VIL can help locate the center of the maximum precipitations.
2005, 31(7):62-67.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.015
Abstract:
Based on the surface rainfall data of 93 stations of Guangxi Province and the 714SD radar data in Nanning,the distribution characteristics and the physical characteristics of summer convective precipitation in Guangxi are analysed.It indicates that the distribution of summer convective precipitation is ununiformed and varied for regions, and time.The echo characteristics and the precipitation rule are analysed by using the echo data, as well as theZ-Irelation is calculated.
Based on the surface rainfall data of 93 stations of Guangxi Province and the 714SD radar data in Nanning,the distribution characteristics and the physical characteristics of summer convective precipitation in Guangxi are analysed.It indicates that the distribution of summer convective precipitation is ununiformed and varied for regions, and time.The echo characteristics and the precipitation rule are analysed by using the echo data, as well as theZ-Irelation is calculated.
2005, 31(7):68-72.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.016
Abstract:
The results of statistical analysis of precipitation, temperature and evaporation data in Sanxia district show that during the rainy season (from April to October) the distribution of the precipitation accords with normal, but the distribution of summer and monthly precipitation do not accord with normal. The distribution of temperature is very coherence. There are good relations among precipitation, temperature and evaporation, especially between temperature and evaporation.
The results of statistical analysis of precipitation, temperature and evaporation data in Sanxia district show that during the rainy season (from April to October) the distribution of the precipitation accords with normal, but the distribution of summer and monthly precipitation do not accord with normal. The distribution of temperature is very coherence. There are good relations among precipitation, temperature and evaporation, especially between temperature and evaporation.
2005, 31(7):72-75.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.017
Abstract:
An operational method of crop yield disaster losses evaluation is introduced. In this method, crop yield loss rate are obtained by a novel method of division crop trend yield. Disaster losses of the area are assessed based on the data of some representing stations, thus samples numbers are enlarged. Crop sensitivity and climate vulnerability are considered in single disaster assessment model. The weights of various disasters are considered yet in the multifactor assessment model. This method is convenient and practical in operation application. Its estimate precision can meet accuracy requirements of operation application.
An operational method of crop yield disaster losses evaluation is introduced. In this method, crop yield loss rate are obtained by a novel method of division crop trend yield. Disaster losses of the area are assessed based on the data of some representing stations, thus samples numbers are enlarged. Crop sensitivity and climate vulnerability are considered in single disaster assessment model. The weights of various disasters are considered yet in the multifactor assessment model. This method is convenient and practical in operation application. Its estimate precision can meet accuracy requirements of operation application.
2005, 31(7):76-79.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.07.018
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological data at 18 stations in the east of Gansu Province and Guyuan, Changwu, Longxian from 1951 to 2000, the drought index every period at every station is calculated in every year and drought grade is divided, moreover, with the data of planting area and yield of crops such as summer crops, autumn crops, wheat, corn, jowar, potato, oil plants, the relation between climatic factors and crops yield is analyzed. At the same time, combining line layout with yield reduction rate matrix, planting decision-making model was devided into confirmed model and stochastic model, the most suitable planting project is selected. The result shows that wether summer and autumn crops or above five crops, the reduction rate of may be largest about 30%—40% in the years of autumn-spring drought,at may be least about 12%—15% in the years of no climatic drought. The stochastic decision-making model approached to average status,so decision-making's meaning is not too. But the confirmed decision-making model obtained marked effect that compositive yield reduction rate reduced 1%—3% universal, so decision-making's meaning is very much. In spite of confirmed model has more decision-making's meaning than stochastic modle, the formor must depend on exact prediction of long-range weather trend. In short, while institute project of planting decision-making for crops, taken into account confirmed model and stochastic modle synthetically is reliable,riskless.
Based on the meteorological data at 18 stations in the east of Gansu Province and Guyuan, Changwu, Longxian from 1951 to 2000, the drought index every period at every station is calculated in every year and drought grade is divided, moreover, with the data of planting area and yield of crops such as summer crops, autumn crops, wheat, corn, jowar, potato, oil plants, the relation between climatic factors and crops yield is analyzed. At the same time, combining line layout with yield reduction rate matrix, planting decision-making model was devided into confirmed model and stochastic model, the most suitable planting project is selected. The result shows that wether summer and autumn crops or above five crops, the reduction rate of may be largest about 30%—40% in the years of autumn-spring drought,at may be least about 12%—15% in the years of no climatic drought. The stochastic decision-making model approached to average status,so decision-making's meaning is not too. But the confirmed decision-making model obtained marked effect that compositive yield reduction rate reduced 1%—3% universal, so decision-making's meaning is very much. In spite of confirmed model has more decision-making's meaning than stochastic modle, the formor must depend on exact prediction of long-range weather trend. In short, while institute project of planting decision-making for crops, taken into account confirmed model and stochastic modle synthetically is reliable,riskless.
2005, 31(7):80-84.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.019
Abstract:
With the requirement of the airplane weather modification information transmission,the (air-ground) radio transmission system is set up. Adoption of the remote radio transmission (technique,) the dual direction transmission and multi-transceiver are accomplished. Based on the MICAPS soft-system, the integrated display application systems, which include the information from ground meteorological operational network, sounding and GPS information from altitude and geography information are obtained.
With the requirement of the airplane weather modification information transmission,the (air-ground) radio transmission system is set up. Adoption of the remote radio transmission (technique,) the dual direction transmission and multi-transceiver are accomplished. Based on the MICAPS soft-system, the integrated display application systems, which include the information from ground meteorological operational network, sounding and GPS information from altitude and geography information are obtained.
2005, 31(7):84-87.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.7.020
Abstract:
An intellectual warning system of severe weather is introduced. The system can display the meteorolgical elements on the terminals in the kind of graphic in time and warn with sound, iamges, e-mail, SMS etc, when the severe weather happened. It is helpful to weather forcast and service.
An intellectual warning system of severe weather is introduced. The system can display the meteorolgical elements on the terminals in the kind of graphic in time and warn with sound, iamges, e-mail, SMS etc, when the severe weather happened. It is helpful to weather forcast and service.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P