Abstract:Ensemble prediction technology is a new numerical weather forecast technology, which is widely used in meteorology abroad. For the limitation of domestic computer resource, the study on ensemble prediction falls behind. Although some progress has been achieved currently, the ensemble product has not been comprehensively used in operational forecasts. As applied in weather prediction like probability forecast, ensemble prediction has been used for “targeted observation” and data assimilation. Some appropriate verifications make ensemble prediction more credible.

Abstract:A dust storm attacked Beijing on April 6, 2000. The variation of meteorological parameters in the boundary and physical chemical properties of this dust events are studied. The results show that the dust storm leads to the distinct and sharp increase of wind speed, decrease of relative humidity, development of turbulence and mixing capability in boundary layer. The total soil mass concentration of dust on April 6 reached 3906μg·m^-3 , 40 times as that of the non dust weather days in 1999 spring. Mass concentration of dust with diameter above 16μm, 8μm and 2μm account for 67%, 78% and 94% respectively. Back trajectory analysis shows that this dust storm on April 6, 2000 originated from Mongolia and Inner Mongolia in China, and arrived in Beijing through long-rang transportation via strong northwest wind.

Abstract:A diagnosis of a heavy rainfall from Jan.5 to Jan.6,2003 is made with the Non geostrophic WetQ-vector(Q^*) theory. The results show that the transverse shear line over the Qingzang Plateau and the trough eastward at the 500hPa, southwesterly jet at the 700hPa, and heavy cold front on the surface are the important influencing systems. The region of heavy rainfall has a good relation withQ^*vergence center or line. The changes ofQ^*frontogenesis function at the 800hPa reflect the intensity of front,and the region magnitudes ofQ^*  frontogenesis function could be used to locate the snowfall area.Q^*divergence at the 700hPa has positive correlation with the development and the intensity of heavy preciptitation in winter in Yunnan.

Abstract:During 2002-flood season, the Avanced Rgional E-grid η-coordinates Model(AREM) developed by the “973” Program (China Heavy Rainfall) is run two times every day(BLT 08:00 and BLT 20:00) to carry out real time numerical weather forecast in the Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan. Real time forecast shows that AREM model is suitable to the computer condition and has certain forecast ability for summer precipitation. It shows that the scores of rainfall forecast for East China comes to the first, and the threat scores of 24 hours rainfall forecast made at 08:00 BLT are 0.578, 0.282, 0.144, and 0.062 for the 24 hours rainfall more than 0.1, 10, 25 and 50 mm respectively.The forecast results of several heavy rains in the period of 2002 main flood season show that the model has predicted the Meiyu rains, the heavy rains in the Changjiang valleys, South China and North China well, and the model has certain forecast abilities for the position and movement of the rain band and the intensity, lasting and weakening of rainfall.

Abstract:The adjoint technique is used in the variational data assimilation using the famous Lorenz model. The numerical experiment shows that the four dimensional assimilation has some relation with the model's predictability, with the increase of error of initial guess field, the effect of the assimilation model become even worse, until the assimilation process fails completely. In the time window of assimilation, if the points of observation are enough, the errors of the observation will not affect the effect of assimilation very much, this will be beneficial for the satellite and radar data assimilation used in operational weather prediction model.

Abstract:The regional inconsistencies among the performances of GMS 5 infrared band rainfall estimations in China released by the National Satellite Meteorological Center are found by regional tests. The raingauge measurements were applied to optimize the satellite rainfall estimation products. The analysis shows that after the optimization, the satellite rainfall estimations for all the climatic regions in China are improved significantly, and the products could therefore have more extensive applications.

Abstract:The data file and the displaying method of the CINRAD′s products in MICAPS are introduced. In order to convert the radar echo data in polar coordinate into the data in grid coordinate, the formulas for calculating geographical position in Lambert projection are given. The 13th data file of MICAPS is obtained through changing the head of BMP picture file. The calculating method of the zoom coefficient in different coordinate and the color map file are introduced too.

Abstract:A large extent heavy rain process occurred over the Changjiang River basin during 22—23 July 2002 . The event was caused by several meso-βscale convective systems in a meso-α-scale shear line under large scale weather situation. By analysis of the event with radar composite image and Doppler velocity data, several significant conclusions are obtained.

Abstract:14 times mesocyclone products of CINRAD/SA at Jinan in 2002 as well as several times of CINRAD/SC at Binzhou are analyzed. Two of the mesocyclones associated with a supercell storm and a minisupercell storm remained a long period, and accompanied with severe weather, such as hail, damage wind and so on. The others appeared in a short time, and were not always associated with severe weather depending on the strength of the mesocyclone as well as weather situation and the other products of radar.

Abstract:Based on the rainfall data in autumn, an analysis of synthesis profit, such as autumn rainfall utilized in spring, the change of soil moisture, water storage variation in Qinghai Lake and so on, of the artificial precipitation is made. It shows that if the rainfall increased in the autumn, the storage of the soil water was higher next spring, moreover the better the soil moisture, and the earlier the regreening, and the higher herbage yield of the natural grassland.

Abstract:The influence of local air pressure on the precision of measuring air humidity is analyzed. And a method to correct the precision is developed with the local air pressure. The result shows that this method could increase the accuracy of air humidity.

Abstract:According to the data of temperature and precipitation in the West of Hainan Island from 1951 to 2000, the climatic change of the West of Hainan Island is analyzed .The results show that the temperature for the last 50 years appears to be going up(0.24℃/10a), especially during the period of 1990s. The warming trend in winter is more than that in other seasons. For this reason, the climate of the West of Hainan Island could be divided into 3 cold periods and 4 warm periods. Furthermore, the precipitation in the West of Hainan Island for the last 50 years appears to decrease (-23 93mm/10a), but the precipitation in spring, autumn and winter appears to increase.

Abstract:By means of objective diagnoses, a heavy rain event over Longdongbao Airport Guiyang, at 20 BT(Beijing Time), May 15, 2003, caused by meso-αconvective systems is studied. The large scale environmental and physical conditions before the occurrence of meso-α convective systems are obtained.

Abstract:The circulation evolution and the convective activity of the southeast Asia region before the rainy season for Yunnan in 2001 is analyzed. The rainy season beginning of Yunnan is influenced by the summer monsoon of the BOB, the Bay of Bengal monsoon onset is earlier and stronger so that the rainy season is earlier and the rainfall is more in 2001. The seasonal adjustment and the convective activity migration to north of the southeast Asia region is an important factor to forecast the rainy season beginning of Yunnan.

Abstract:Based on the data of last 42 years, using Penman method and consideration of the modification of different crop's grouth phases,the formland water demand is estimated in the Southwestern part of Shandong Province. By dispersion analysis between formland water demand and valid precipitation, the assessment of water supply and demanding condition is given. The results show that their changing trend are decreased and the rate is so close as well.

Abstract:Based on the data from 13 stations from 1971 to 2000, a climate analysis of heavy fog is given along Jinan Qingdao highway. It shows that the heavy fog along the Jinan Qingdao highway has significant spatiat temporal distribution. The key period for fog is put forward. According to the traffic conditions and technical index of highway management, some propositions about developing service to highway are suggestted.

Abstract:Based on meteorological data in the last thirty years, the meteorological environment, such as temperature, relative humidity, air pressure about electronic manufacture production, reservation, transport and electronic security are analyzed.

Abstract:Grid computing has emerged as an important new field. Based on an open set of standards and protocols, grid computing enables the organizations around the world to access the data resources, storage capacity and the distributed heterogeneous computing etc. via internet or local network to create a single system image, ultimately it can grant users and applications seamless access to vast computing environments. Because of its huge computing requirement, high throughput and dense service, meteorology has become one of the significant application fields in the proposed world's grid projects, such as ECMWF's EcAccess system, MEAD Project of US, Europe, Japan, etc. With grid computing, organizations can optimize distributed heterogeneous computing, human expertise and data resources, can share them across networks and can provide a remote collaborative environment for NWP as well as the Earth simulation system.