ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 30,Issue 9,2004 Table of Contents
2004, 30(9).
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.011
Abstract:
Based on NWP,synoptic charts,satellite image and hourly self-record rain fall,wind data at 4 stations in Bohai Seand other 4 stations,from 1992 to 2001,the comprehensive comparison and analysis of 18 cases of heavy rain and 8 casesf heavy snow are made. The effect of wind on rainfall area is studied. From 2000 to 2003,the TS value is 53%.
Based on NWP,synoptic charts,satellite image and hourly self-record rain fall,wind data at 4 stations in Bohai Seand other 4 stations,from 1992 to 2001,the comprehensive comparison and analysis of 18 cases of heavy rain and 8 casesf heavy snow are made. The effect of wind on rainfall area is studied. From 2000 to 2003,the TS value is 53%.
2004, 30(9):3-8.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.001
Abstract:
A severe storm caused by northeast cold vortex over Liaoning Province on 12 July 2002,was successfully simulated by MM5 model. Middle-level dry cold air adiabatic subsiding is the important mechanism of 700hPa dry-warm lid establishment and maintenance. Both the Warm moist ascending airflow and the dry warm lid restraining are the important mechanism of convective instable energy accumulation. The differential advection which is produced by vertical wind shear from southwest at low-level to the northwest at the middle-level enhances the stratification instability before the storm approach,and the rapid anti-clockwise rotation of wind vertical shear when the storm approach that made thermal wind imbalance and inspired vertical circulation to adapt it's change,and it is important to the development of the storm.
A severe storm caused by northeast cold vortex over Liaoning Province on 12 July 2002,was successfully simulated by MM5 model. Middle-level dry cold air adiabatic subsiding is the important mechanism of 700hPa dry-warm lid establishment and maintenance. Both the Warm moist ascending airflow and the dry warm lid restraining are the important mechanism of convective instable energy accumulation. The differential advection which is produced by vertical wind shear from southwest at low-level to the northwest at the middle-level enhances the stratification instability before the storm approach,and the rapid anti-clockwise rotation of wind vertical shear when the storm approach that made thermal wind imbalance and inspired vertical circulation to adapt it's change,and it is important to the development of the storm.
2004, 30(9):9-13.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.09.002
Abstract:
There exists asymmetry characteristic of residual distribution in the regression model of city air quality forecast. It is caused by some high leverage cases. The residues of these high leverage cases have no rationality in the sense of statistical weather forecasting,and the errors of Least Square Estimation (LS) of the regression coefficient are occurred. So the errors of city air quality forecast are occurred. Thus the regression diagnosis prediction model for city air quality forecasting is proposed. The mathematical proving and the calculation of the examples show that this new model is superior to the general regression prediction model. It is illustrated by means of further analysis that rationality of regression model of city air quality is not caused by some examples,but by mathematical characteristics of the model.
There exists asymmetry characteristic of residual distribution in the regression model of city air quality forecast. It is caused by some high leverage cases. The residues of these high leverage cases have no rationality in the sense of statistical weather forecasting,and the errors of Least Square Estimation (LS) of the regression coefficient are occurred. So the errors of city air quality forecast are occurred. Thus the regression diagnosis prediction model for city air quality forecasting is proposed. The mathematical proving and the calculation of the examples show that this new model is superior to the general regression prediction model. It is illustrated by means of further analysis that rationality of regression model of city air quality is not caused by some examples,but by mathematical characteristics of the model.
2004, 30(9):14-18.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.003
Abstract:
Thirteen tropical cyclones tracking westward at high speed into the South China Sea are analyzed. It shows that the major characteristics of the westerlies is that from Middle Asia to East Asia was covered by a ridge or zonal circulation and westerly troughs were at higher latitudes. The results also show that a constantly intense zonal spreading subtropical high dominated from the west North Pacific to central and southern China or a continually strengthening subtropical ridge that extending westward gradually built up the gradient between the ridge and tropical cyclone and strengthened the easterly steering flows. Moreover,the easterly environmental flows prevailing in both of the southern and northern sides of tropical cyclone would drive it to travel more quickly.
Thirteen tropical cyclones tracking westward at high speed into the South China Sea are analyzed. It shows that the major characteristics of the westerlies is that from Middle Asia to East Asia was covered by a ridge or zonal circulation and westerly troughs were at higher latitudes. The results also show that a constantly intense zonal spreading subtropical high dominated from the west North Pacific to central and southern China or a continually strengthening subtropical ridge that extending westward gradually built up the gradient between the ridge and tropical cyclone and strengthened the easterly steering flows. Moreover,the easterly environmental flows prevailing in both of the southern and northern sides of tropical cyclone would drive it to travel more quickly.
2004, 30(9):19-23.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.004
Abstract:
A research on the track of Typhoon Sinlaku and the course of prediction,and analysis of the argument of some difficulty on forecasting anomalous moving track are conducted. Many factors indicated that when the steering flow is too weak,typhoons like Sinlaku sometimes stop,turn and its moving track,then a careful analysis should be made and careful observation of binary cyclones should also been done. Therefore we can say,vapor imagery is an useful tool.
A research on the track of Typhoon Sinlaku and the course of prediction,and analysis of the argument of some difficulty on forecasting anomalous moving track are conducted. Many factors indicated that when the steering flow is too weak,typhoons like Sinlaku sometimes stop,turn and its moving track,then a careful analysis should be made and careful observation of binary cyclones should also been done. Therefore we can say,vapor imagery is an useful tool.
2004, 30(9):24-27.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.005
Abstract:
On the base of grid point data from T213,HLFS,MM5,and Japanese model,a Shanxi Province precipitation diagnosis model is induced. According to the precipitation forecast function and its good/bad characteristics of every kind of numerical model and the reality that in the numerical model the prognosis is superior to the elemental prediction,the operational automatic flow of the area rainfall is made to start different predictive equations under the background of different synoptic situation,which can effectively overcome the weak point that the forecast output can not quickly respond to the circulation patterns when these patterns are adjusted and can improve the forecast accuracy of the area rainfall.
On the base of grid point data from T213,HLFS,MM5,and Japanese model,a Shanxi Province precipitation diagnosis model is induced. According to the precipitation forecast function and its good/bad characteristics of every kind of numerical model and the reality that in the numerical model the prognosis is superior to the elemental prediction,the operational automatic flow of the area rainfall is made to start different predictive equations under the background of different synoptic situation,which can effectively overcome the weak point that the forecast output can not quickly respond to the circulation patterns when these patterns are adjusted and can improve the forecast accuracy of the area rainfall.
2004, 30(9):28-30.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.006
Abstract:
The relative difference of vapor TBB in the nearby area reveals the distribution of vapor,it can be treated as the approximation of rainfall's distribution of the area at the same time. With this distribution,the simulation of area rainfall can be modified. The simulating result is quite close to the actual rainfall than that without modified. As a result,the accuracy of the rainfall simulation was improved greatly by this method.
The relative difference of vapor TBB in the nearby area reveals the distribution of vapor,it can be treated as the approximation of rainfall's distribution of the area at the same time. With this distribution,the simulation of area rainfall can be modified. The simulating result is quite close to the actual rainfall than that without modified. As a result,the accuracy of the rainfall simulation was improved greatly by this method.
2004, 30(9):31-34.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.007
Abstract:
In order to reveal the spatial-temporal change of climatic and ecological effect in the Changjiang River Basin with the construction of Three Gorges Project,since 1996,an ecological and environmental monitoring system of the Three Gorges Project was established jointly and a climate monitoring sub-system was put in practice at the same time. Not only climate monitoring in the Three Gorge reservoir area is run,upper-air observation with moorage balloon sounding and radarsonde is also carried out in the east and west in the reservoir. Detailed and reliable background data are accumulated,the Three Gorges reservoir area climate monitoring products have been provided to Three Gorges Construction Committee and China Three Gorges Development Corporation every year to serve the Three Gorges Project construction.
In order to reveal the spatial-temporal change of climatic and ecological effect in the Changjiang River Basin with the construction of Three Gorges Project,since 1996,an ecological and environmental monitoring system of the Three Gorges Project was established jointly and a climate monitoring sub-system was put in practice at the same time. Not only climate monitoring in the Three Gorge reservoir area is run,upper-air observation with moorage balloon sounding and radarsonde is also carried out in the east and west in the reservoir. Detailed and reliable background data are accumulated,the Three Gorges reservoir area climate monitoring products have been provided to Three Gorges Construction Committee and China Three Gorges Development Corporation every year to serve the Three Gorges Project construction.
2004, 30(9):35-38.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.008
Abstract:
A new evaluation method is introduced. It is closely connected with operational forecasts and caters to the public. It has been applied in the operation currently,and become an important foundation for assessment of forecasters achievement.
A new evaluation method is introduced. It is closely connected with operational forecasts and caters to the public. It has been applied in the operation currently,and become an important foundation for assessment of forecasters achievement.
2004, 30(9):39-44.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.009
Abstract:
On March 18—22,2002,a severe dust storm raided North China. The stricken area and the duration of the event are the maximum in recent years. The climate characteristics and the synoptic situation of the event are diagnosed. Some physical diagnostics are analyzed,too. The results show that strong cold air and the Mongolia cyclone are the main causes for the generation and development of the event.
On March 18—22,2002,a severe dust storm raided North China. The stricken area and the duration of the event are the maximum in recent years. The climate characteristics and the synoptic situation of the event are diagnosed. Some physical diagnostics are analyzed,too. The results show that strong cold air and the Mongolia cyclone are the main causes for the generation and development of the event.
2004, 30(9):45-49.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.010
Abstract:
An attempt to explore an application of spherical function coefficient data of 500hPa monthly mean height field in flood/drought prediction,it shows the sectorized flood/drought index I in spring and summer of Shaanxi,with being defined on the basis of sectorized precipitation index(IR)and historical record,the inter-annual anomaly of spherical function coefficients of low dimension and low order are obtained,they can be used as parameters in actual prediction. Based on the analysis of synchronous and time-lagged correlation of the flood/drought index and circulation anomaly,it is found that the relation between the Northern Hemispheric circulation anomaly and flood/drought of Shaanxi is statistically significant while the relation between the Southern Hemispheric circulation anomaly and flood/drought of Shaanxi is not significant.
An attempt to explore an application of spherical function coefficient data of 500hPa monthly mean height field in flood/drought prediction,it shows the sectorized flood/drought index I in spring and summer of Shaanxi,with being defined on the basis of sectorized precipitation index(IR)and historical record,the inter-annual anomaly of spherical function coefficients of low dimension and low order are obtained,they can be used as parameters in actual prediction. Based on the analysis of synchronous and time-lagged correlation of the flood/drought index and circulation anomaly,it is found that the relation between the Northern Hemispheric circulation anomaly and flood/drought of Shaanxi is statistically significant while the relation between the Southern Hemispheric circulation anomaly and flood/drought of Shaanxi is not significant.
2004, 30(9):50-53.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.9.012
Abstract:
With NOAA-AVHRR imagery,an approach to survey the hail disaster is made. The technique is examined through the study on the hail disasters from 1998 to 2000. The vegetation indexes will decrease after a hail disaster,so the area and the degree suffer for the hail disaster can be identified with vegetation indexes. It must be pointed out that in the different growing periods ,different vegetation index will be selected. Although constrained by the resolution of the satellite imagery,it is not easy to identify the light hail disaster area and the very small ones,it is still feasible to identify the stricken degree in the heavily hail disaster.
With NOAA-AVHRR imagery,an approach to survey the hail disaster is made. The technique is examined through the study on the hail disasters from 1998 to 2000. The vegetation indexes will decrease after a hail disaster,so the area and the degree suffer for the hail disaster can be identified with vegetation indexes. It must be pointed out that in the different growing periods ,different vegetation index will be selected. Although constrained by the resolution of the satellite imagery,it is not easy to identify the light hail disaster area and the very small ones,it is still feasible to identify the stricken degree in the heavily hail disaster.
2004, 30(9):54-57.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.09.013
Abstract:
Based on the information technology and according to the needs of China weather data operational system,the Qinghai environmental data observation,processing and management system is developed.
Based on the information technology and according to the needs of China weather data operational system,the Qinghai environmental data observation,processing and management system is developed.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P