ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 30,Issue 12,2004 Table of Contents
2004, 30(12):4-10.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.002
Abstract:
The current development of the operational weather forecast in China is presented. It suggests that it is the technological development of the atmospheric probing,the numerical weather forecast and the visualization that impels the conventional weather forecast in China toward quantization and timing,while the development process of and problems in weather forecast are systematically mentioned. Finally,the inspirations drawn for China's weather forecasts are put forward.
The current development of the operational weather forecast in China is presented. It suggests that it is the technological development of the atmospheric probing,the numerical weather forecast and the visualization that impels the conventional weather forecast in China toward quantization and timing,while the development process of and problems in weather forecast are systematically mentioned. Finally,the inspirations drawn for China's weather forecasts are put forward.
2004, 30(12):11-16.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.003
Abstract:
The first-generation of the Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System in China consists of data base,dynamic climatic model system,climatic monitoring and diagnostic system,short-range climate prediction system,climatic impact and assessment system and climatic application and service system. The researches during the development of the system have revealed that the stronger signals for the climate anomalies in China are El Nio event,plateau snow cover,and monsoon. The global and regional dynamic climate model system,which includes T63L16 global general circulation model,high-resolution regional climate model,T63L30 global oceanic model and sea-ice model,the Pacific and the India Ocean high-resolution oceanic model and El Nino prediction model,is developed. The operational and application system supported by the high performance computers and network can supply the short-range climatic information,as well as the impacts of the climatic changes on the water resources,agriculture,forestry,communication,electric power,and so on,and supply the service to policy makers. It shows that the system has a certain skill. The prediction accuracy after using the system from 1998,as a whole,is above 6%—10% higher than that in the 20 years before 1998. But the climate prediction for regional severe floods has shown a low skill and needs to be improved.
The first-generation of the Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System in China consists of data base,dynamic climatic model system,climatic monitoring and diagnostic system,short-range climate prediction system,climatic impact and assessment system and climatic application and service system. The researches during the development of the system have revealed that the stronger signals for the climate anomalies in China are El Nio event,plateau snow cover,and monsoon. The global and regional dynamic climate model system,which includes T63L16 global general circulation model,high-resolution regional climate model,T63L30 global oceanic model and sea-ice model,the Pacific and the India Ocean high-resolution oceanic model and El Nino prediction model,is developed. The operational and application system supported by the high performance computers and network can supply the short-range climatic information,as well as the impacts of the climatic changes on the water resources,agriculture,forestry,communication,electric power,and so on,and supply the service to policy makers. It shows that the system has a certain skill. The prediction accuracy after using the system from 1998,as a whole,is above 6%—10% higher than that in the 20 years before 1998. But the climate prediction for regional severe floods has shown a low skill and needs to be improved.
2004, 30(12):17-21.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.004
Abstract:
Lightning is a natural phenomenon that may causes heavy casualties and serious economic losses. Therefore,it is of important social,economical,and scientific value to detect the lightning effectively. The mechanism of lightning and its influence,several kinds of detecting techniques and the research work in this field are introduced and analyzed in this article. The proposed national lightning detecting system also briefly described.
Lightning is a natural phenomenon that may causes heavy casualties and serious economic losses. Therefore,it is of important social,economical,and scientific value to detect the lightning effectively. The mechanism of lightning and its influence,several kinds of detecting techniques and the research work in this field are introduced and analyzed in this article. The proposed national lightning detecting system also briefly described.
2004, 30(12):22-26.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.005
Abstract:
The seasonal variation of the thermal contrast between land and sea is the most important reason for the formation of monsoon. The prominent interannual variability of sea temperature in tropical oceans can affect the monsoon both through altering the thermal contrast between land and sea and through strong air-sea interaction in the tropics. A review about the studies of influences of sea temperature in tropical eastern Pacific (ENSO),western Pacific Warm Pool and tropical Indian Ocean on the East Asian monsoon,respectively,and physical processes of such influences is given. It is pointed out that the variability of the East Asian monsoon and that of the sea temperature in these tropical oceans are coherent. A synthetic study is needed for fully understanding the variability of either the East Asian monsoon or the sea temperature in these tropical oceans.
The seasonal variation of the thermal contrast between land and sea is the most important reason for the formation of monsoon. The prominent interannual variability of sea temperature in tropical oceans can affect the monsoon both through altering the thermal contrast between land and sea and through strong air-sea interaction in the tropics. A review about the studies of influences of sea temperature in tropical eastern Pacific (ENSO),western Pacific Warm Pool and tropical Indian Ocean on the East Asian monsoon,respectively,and physical processes of such influences is given. It is pointed out that the variability of the East Asian monsoon and that of the sea temperature in these tropical oceans are coherent. A synthetic study is needed for fully understanding the variability of either the East Asian monsoon or the sea temperature in these tropical oceans.
2004, 30(12):27-31.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.006
Abstract:
WRF model system is a new generation mesoscal numerical weather forecast model and data assimilation system which is made by meteorological community of U.S.A. 3DAR and WRF V.20 will be released this year. There are highly modular,transportable,and efficient in massively Parallel Computing environment,numerous physics options in the model,advanced data assimilation system developed in tandem with the model itself. The simulations and real-time forecasting show that WFR model has good property for forecasting many kind of weather. The WRF model fully coupled “online" chemistry,therefore WRF model system has broad application not only in weather forecasts,but also in air quality forecasts.
WRF model system is a new generation mesoscal numerical weather forecast model and data assimilation system which is made by meteorological community of U.S.A. 3DAR and WRF V.20 will be released this year. There are highly modular,transportable,and efficient in massively Parallel Computing environment,numerous physics options in the model,advanced data assimilation system developed in tandem with the model itself. The simulations and real-time forecasting show that WFR model has good property for forecasting many kind of weather. The WRF model fully coupled “online" chemistry,therefore WRF model system has broad application not only in weather forecasts,but also in air quality forecasts.
2004, 30(12):32-35.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.007
Abstract:
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) crowned 20th century meteorology with our irreversible changed view of the weather prediction and with a feasible calculating way serving our everyday life. At the time of the 50th anniversary of the emerging of the operational NWP,a review of notable advances in scientific idea and technology progress which paved the way for the remarkable improvements in its evolution is made,as well as a vision for its future.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) crowned 20th century meteorology with our irreversible changed view of the weather prediction and with a feasible calculating way serving our everyday life. At the time of the 50th anniversary of the emerging of the operational NWP,a review of notable advances in scientific idea and technology progress which paved the way for the remarkable improvements in its evolution is made,as well as a vision for its future.
2004, 30(12):36-38.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.008
Abstract:
The first geostationary operational meteorological satellite FY-2 in China launched successfully at Xichang,Sichuan Province. It fixed position over 105°E,equator,and it is operation well. The technical features of the satellite-borne instruments and its earth surface application systems are introduced.
The first geostationary operational meteorological satellite FY-2 in China launched successfully at Xichang,Sichuan Province. It fixed position over 105°E,equator,and it is operation well. The technical features of the satellite-borne instruments and its earth surface application systems are introduced.
2004, 30(12):39-43.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.009
Abstract:
Ice nuclei concentration in the atmosphere is measured by both the Bigg mixing cloud chamber and the static diffusion chamber of processing Millipore filter samples at northwest suburb of Beijing from 18 March to 30 April 1995. The typical weather of clear sky,sandstorm,and heavy air pollution were encountered during these parallel observation. The data were obtained by mixing cloud chamber for -15℃,-20℃,-25℃ and -30℃. 464 membranes sampled processed in the static diffusion chamber at -20℃ and -25℃ respectively under ice super-saturation condition. The data obtained from both devices was compared daily and the correlation with wind direction,surface visibility and atmospheric pressure is also analyzed.
Ice nuclei concentration in the atmosphere is measured by both the Bigg mixing cloud chamber and the static diffusion chamber of processing Millipore filter samples at northwest suburb of Beijing from 18 March to 30 April 1995. The typical weather of clear sky,sandstorm,and heavy air pollution were encountered during these parallel observation. The data were obtained by mixing cloud chamber for -15℃,-20℃,-25℃ and -30℃. 464 membranes sampled processed in the static diffusion chamber at -20℃ and -25℃ respectively under ice super-saturation condition. The data obtained from both devices was compared daily and the correlation with wind direction,surface visibility and atmospheric pressure is also analyzed.
2004, 30(12):44-46.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.010
Abstract:
The water vapor transport structure of anomalous rainy centers in the southeast of Tibetan Plateau is analyzed with the whole layer moisture flux diagnostic method. The convergence feature of the whole layer moisture flux disturbance is revealed in the rainy centers. The whole layer moisture flux compositive correlation vector field shows the multi-channels convergence feature and the water vapor sources of the rainy centers.
The water vapor transport structure of anomalous rainy centers in the southeast of Tibetan Plateau is analyzed with the whole layer moisture flux diagnostic method. The convergence feature of the whole layer moisture flux disturbance is revealed in the rainy centers. The whole layer moisture flux compositive correlation vector field shows the multi-channels convergence feature and the water vapor sources of the rainy centers.
2004, 30(12):47-52.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.011
Abstract:
A double-level multi-factor synthetic analogue prediction model is given for the coming 10-day forecasting of the drought/flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River in flood season. It takes into account of the following five predictors: the meridional transmission of geotropic west wind momentum,area index and location of the subtropical high in the west Pacific and the geopotential height filed at 500hPa level,the meridional temperature gradient and temperature field at 850hPa level. Compared with the former single-level analogue prediction model,it has more specific physical meaning and is more competent for the complex dynamic mechanics precipitation forecast. Five-year forecast experiment and operational application shows that this method has good performance in the medium-range tendency forecast for the drought/flood of the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.
A double-level multi-factor synthetic analogue prediction model is given for the coming 10-day forecasting of the drought/flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River in flood season. It takes into account of the following five predictors: the meridional transmission of geotropic west wind momentum,area index and location of the subtropical high in the west Pacific and the geopotential height filed at 500hPa level,the meridional temperature gradient and temperature field at 850hPa level. Compared with the former single-level analogue prediction model,it has more specific physical meaning and is more competent for the complex dynamic mechanics precipitation forecast. Five-year forecast experiment and operational application shows that this method has good performance in the medium-range tendency forecast for the drought/flood of the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.
2004, 30(12):53-56.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.012
Abstract:
Based on the data of sounding and 711 radar echo,the precipitable stratiform clouds in the middle of Shaanxi Province are analyzed,and classified. A statistical analysis of various parameters of stable and mixing stratiform clouds is made. The results provided scientific backgroud for estimation of rainfall amount and operation of precipitable enhancement with antiaircraft gun,rocket,and plane.
Based on the data of sounding and 711 radar echo,the precipitable stratiform clouds in the middle of Shaanxi Province are analyzed,and classified. A statistical analysis of various parameters of stable and mixing stratiform clouds is made. The results provided scientific backgroud for estimation of rainfall amount and operation of precipitable enhancement with antiaircraft gun,rocket,and plane.
2004, 30(12):57-60.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.013
Abstract:
According to the analysis of the cause of warm winter climate from the 1980s,it indicates that there is a 30-year periodic temperature transformation in China,the main factors which result in continuance warm winters in China,may be the outbreak of El Nino Event,the weaken East Asia winter monsoon,the strengthened subtropical high in the west Pacific Ocean,the diminished snow cover in Europe and Asia,the decreased volcano activities,and the impact of greenhouse.
According to the analysis of the cause of warm winter climate from the 1980s,it indicates that there is a 30-year periodic temperature transformation in China,the main factors which result in continuance warm winters in China,may be the outbreak of El Nino Event,the weaken East Asia winter monsoon,the strengthened subtropical high in the west Pacific Ocean,the diminished snow cover in Europe and Asia,the decreased volcano activities,and the impact of greenhouse.
2004, 30(12):61-64.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.014
Abstract:
Based on the observations from 6 stations in Hami,climate features and synoptic situation of sandy and dust weather in last 40 years (1961—2000) are studied with the Surface Data Multifunctional Application System (SDMAS). The result shows that sandy and dust weather in Hami is composed of dust with a highest percentage of 61.6%,sandstorm (22.1%) and floating dust (16.3%). Such weather is most likely to happen in spring,then in summer and least in winter. It was a high frequency period for sandy and dust weather from 1960s to 1970s,and obviously decreased from 1983 to 2000. The sandy and dust weather usually happens from 15 to 21 p.m. and mostly concentrates during noon to afternoon,it is possible to happen when the wind speed is higher than 3.4m·s-1,the precipitation will help to restrain the sandy weather. It is found that the sand storm mainly happens in 6 kinds of favorable synoptic situation.
Based on the observations from 6 stations in Hami,climate features and synoptic situation of sandy and dust weather in last 40 years (1961—2000) are studied with the Surface Data Multifunctional Application System (SDMAS). The result shows that sandy and dust weather in Hami is composed of dust with a highest percentage of 61.6%,sandstorm (22.1%) and floating dust (16.3%). Such weather is most likely to happen in spring,then in summer and least in winter. It was a high frequency period for sandy and dust weather from 1960s to 1970s,and obviously decreased from 1983 to 2000. The sandy and dust weather usually happens from 15 to 21 p.m. and mostly concentrates during noon to afternoon,it is possible to happen when the wind speed is higher than 3.4m·s-1,the precipitation will help to restrain the sandy weather. It is found that the sand storm mainly happens in 6 kinds of favorable synoptic situation.
2004, 30(12):65-67.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.015
Abstract:
The multi-time scale structure and localization characters of Qiqihar's temperature variation are analyzed by Morlet wavelet transformation. The results show that there are not only quasi-biennial,4-year,4-6-year and 8-year annual scale periodic change and 40-60-year decades scale periodic change,but also marked abrupt change characters in Qiqihar's temperature variation. The 40-60-year scale periodic alteration of coldness and hotness occurs in 1924,1955 and 1989.
The multi-time scale structure and localization characters of Qiqihar's temperature variation are analyzed by Morlet wavelet transformation. The results show that there are not only quasi-biennial,4-year,4-6-year and 8-year annual scale periodic change and 40-60-year decades scale periodic change,but also marked abrupt change characters in Qiqihar's temperature variation. The 40-60-year scale periodic alteration of coldness and hotness occurs in 1924,1955 and 1989.
2004, 30(12):68-71.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.016
Abstract:
According to the observation of Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory from 1961 to 2002,climatic characteristics and forming cause of haze in Guangzhou are analyzed. The results showed that in Guangzhou haze days was maximum in December and minimum in June,the haze days in autumn and winter accounted for more than 70 percent of annual total haze days. In general,annual haze days represented the increasing trend. The change of annual haze days could be divided into five stages,among which haze days from late 1970's to middle 1980's and from late 1980's to middle and late 1990's were increasing rapidly. Inter-annual change of haze days was associated with pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere,whereas monthly and seasonal distribution of haze days tended to be controlled by synoptic situation and weather conditions. Haze could decrease global solar radiation and reduce sunshine duration.
According to the observation of Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory from 1961 to 2002,climatic characteristics and forming cause of haze in Guangzhou are analyzed. The results showed that in Guangzhou haze days was maximum in December and minimum in June,the haze days in autumn and winter accounted for more than 70 percent of annual total haze days. In general,annual haze days represented the increasing trend. The change of annual haze days could be divided into five stages,among which haze days from late 1970's to middle 1980's and from late 1980's to middle and late 1990's were increasing rapidly. Inter-annual change of haze days was associated with pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere,whereas monthly and seasonal distribution of haze days tended to be controlled by synoptic situation and weather conditions. Haze could decrease global solar radiation and reduce sunshine duration.
2004, 30(12):74-77.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.018
Abstract:
The classifications of meteorological flood grade is proposted. Different from the other Classifications of flood grade,the method includes the hydrology parameters,as well as meteorology parameters. So that,the value of meteorological flood grade could be suggested not only for describing the flood magnitude for major rivers,but also for the flood over subordinate river and the field on river valleys.
The classifications of meteorological flood grade is proposted. Different from the other Classifications of flood grade,the method includes the hydrology parameters,as well as meteorology parameters. So that,the value of meteorological flood grade could be suggested not only for describing the flood magnitude for major rivers,but also for the flood over subordinate river and the field on river valleys.
2004, 30(12):78-82.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.12.019
Abstract:
By analyzing laws of brewing grape fruit growing and contained sugar accumulation,it shows that fruit growing trends parabola has two obvious growing peak value. The growing key time occurs from the first ten days of July to the first ten days of August,whose growing rate is 64—78 percent of total rate; contained sugar accumulation follows “S” function model. The key time of sugar accumulation occurs from the middle ten days to last ten days of August,whose sugar accumulation is fastest,daily accumulation sugar content is 0.48%—0.84%,pure accumulation sugar content is 73%—77% of total accumulation sugar content. The key factors of sugar accumulation are of main light temperature accumulation and daily range of temperature. The longer the sunlight time,the higher temperature,the faster sugar accumulated,the higher the grape contains sugar content. The grape climate model of sugar accumulation is developed and it can estimate sugar content geographical distribution in various climate areas of Hexi corridor,and therefore it can provide scientific basis for grape breeds selection.
By analyzing laws of brewing grape fruit growing and contained sugar accumulation,it shows that fruit growing trends parabola has two obvious growing peak value. The growing key time occurs from the first ten days of July to the first ten days of August,whose growing rate is 64—78 percent of total rate; contained sugar accumulation follows “S” function model. The key time of sugar accumulation occurs from the middle ten days to last ten days of August,whose sugar accumulation is fastest,daily accumulation sugar content is 0.48%—0.84%,pure accumulation sugar content is 73%—77% of total accumulation sugar content. The key factors of sugar accumulation are of main light temperature accumulation and daily range of temperature. The longer the sunlight time,the higher temperature,the faster sugar accumulated,the higher the grape contains sugar content. The grape climate model of sugar accumulation is developed and it can estimate sugar content geographical distribution in various climate areas of Hexi corridor,and therefore it can provide scientific basis for grape breeds selection.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P