ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 29,Issue 5,2003 Table of Contents
2003, 29(5):3-8.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.05.001
Abstract:
The integrated prediction decision making for typhoon tracks by using the Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method is made. It is shown that the MCE can provide a reasonable integrated prediction for typhoon tracks. An objective integrated decision for typhoon track forecasting, which is a neural network to simulate the human being, is made instead of the traditional experiment one. Parallel analyzing results by using typhoon track forecasting data, 10 year′s special landing typhoons, the full year for 2000 and typhoon 9711 (Winnie ) with abnormal track indicated that MCE method gives a good behaviour.
The integrated prediction decision making for typhoon tracks by using the Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method is made. It is shown that the MCE can provide a reasonable integrated prediction for typhoon tracks. An objective integrated decision for typhoon track forecasting, which is a neural network to simulate the human being, is made instead of the traditional experiment one. Parallel analyzing results by using typhoon track forecasting data, 10 year′s special landing typhoons, the full year for 2000 and typhoon 9711 (Winnie ) with abnormal track indicated that MCE method gives a good behaviour.
2003, 29(5):9-12.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.002
Abstract:
Based on the data of heating resource, and the rainfall in Sichuan Province and Chongqing City, the relationship between the surface heating fields over the Plateau and the precipitation in Sichuan basin during summer is analyzed. The results show that (1) There are obvious correlations between the surface heating over the Qinghai Xizang Plateau and the precipitation in the Sichuan basin during summer. (2) The anomaly of the surface heating fields over the Plateau, which is forced by the anomaly of 500hPa circulation field over East Asia is able to affect the rainfall in the Sichuan basin during summer.
Based on the data of heating resource, and the rainfall in Sichuan Province and Chongqing City, the relationship between the surface heating fields over the Plateau and the precipitation in Sichuan basin during summer is analyzed. The results show that (1) There are obvious correlations between the surface heating over the Qinghai Xizang Plateau and the precipitation in the Sichuan basin during summer. (2) The anomaly of the surface heating fields over the Plateau, which is forced by the anomaly of 500hPa circulation field over East Asia is able to affect the rainfall in the Sichuan basin during summer.
2003, 29(5):13-17.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.003
Abstract:
Triple Doppler radar is used to investigate China Mei yu in 2002 in ″973″ key project——China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study. Three dimensional winds of the Mei yu precipitation on 24 June are analyzed using dual and triple Doppler radar data retrieved by multiple Doppler synthesis and continuity adjustment technique (MUSCAT) technology. The convergence line at the low level plays an important role in the rains.
Triple Doppler radar is used to investigate China Mei yu in 2002 in ″973″ key project——China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study. Three dimensional winds of the Mei yu precipitation on 24 June are analyzed using dual and triple Doppler radar data retrieved by multiple Doppler synthesis and continuity adjustment technique (MUSCAT) technology. The convergence line at the low level plays an important role in the rains.
2003, 29(5):18-20.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.004
Abstract:
By analyzing the ability of meteorological satellite for monitoring the water quality in large inland lake, it is shown that meteorological satellite NOAA /AVHRR data can be used to monitor the blue green algae waterbloom in large badly contaminated inland lakes, furthermore, meteorological satellite FY 1C can be used to estimate concentrations of chlorophyll in the large lakes.
By analyzing the ability of meteorological satellite for monitoring the water quality in large inland lake, it is shown that meteorological satellite NOAA /AVHRR data can be used to monitor the blue green algae waterbloom in large badly contaminated inland lakes, furthermore, meteorological satellite FY 1C can be used to estimate concentrations of chlorophyll in the large lakes.
2003, 29(5):21-25.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.005
Abstract:
The rainfall prediction products of forecaster and NWP (HLAFS, HLAFS 0 25,T106 and T213) of NMC are verified and assessed by statistical method for the main flood season of 2002,which include the prediction of whole country and eight areas. The results show that the TS score of forecaster prediction is the best from light rain to severe rain for the whole country. The second is T213.The third is HLAFS 0 25(except for severe storm).The rainfall forecast skill of T213 and HLAFS 0 25 is higher than one of T106 and HLAFS 0 5.It turns out that the forecast skill of advanced models have improved. The TS score of forecaster prediction of light rain in 2002 is higher than that in 2001. The TS score of forcaster torrential rain and heavy rain forecast also increases for 24 hours. The result of T213 is higher from moderate rain to heavy rain than that in 2001.The other results is same or less than that in 2001. The verification for the eight areas shows both the subjective and objective prediction in the south of China are better than those in the north of China for the moderate rain and light rain. The prediction of forecaster is much better than NWP in the south of China for heavy rain and torrential rain. Nevertheless, T213 is better than the others for the North. The torrential rain prediction of HLAFS and HLAFS 0 25 is super than others in Northwest.
The rainfall prediction products of forecaster and NWP (HLAFS, HLAFS 0 25,T106 and T213) of NMC are verified and assessed by statistical method for the main flood season of 2002,which include the prediction of whole country and eight areas. The results show that the TS score of forecaster prediction is the best from light rain to severe rain for the whole country. The second is T213.The third is HLAFS 0 25(except for severe storm).The rainfall forecast skill of T213 and HLAFS 0 25 is higher than one of T106 and HLAFS 0 5.It turns out that the forecast skill of advanced models have improved. The TS score of forecaster prediction of light rain in 2002 is higher than that in 2001. The TS score of forcaster torrential rain and heavy rain forecast also increases for 24 hours. The result of T213 is higher from moderate rain to heavy rain than that in 2001.The other results is same or less than that in 2001. The verification for the eight areas shows both the subjective and objective prediction in the south of China are better than those in the north of China for the moderate rain and light rain. The prediction of forecaster is much better than NWP in the south of China for heavy rain and torrential rain. Nevertheless, T213 is better than the others for the North. The torrential rain prediction of HLAFS and HLAFS 0 25 is super than others in Northwest.
2003, 29(5):26-29.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.006
Abstract:
The concept of operational flow component is put forward by introducing the Object Oriented Designing (OOD). By modeling and parameterization of the universal operational flow components, users can freely assemble their personalized operational platform according to their own purviews. A brandnew weather discussion with multimedia is designed by using slides that can be exported as a file for exchange among meteorological observatories.
The concept of operational flow component is put forward by introducing the Object Oriented Designing (OOD). By modeling and parameterization of the universal operational flow components, users can freely assemble their personalized operational platform according to their own purviews. A brandnew weather discussion with multimedia is designed by using slides that can be exported as a file for exchange among meteorological observatories.
2003, 29(5):30-33.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.007
Abstract:
The important performance and technology characteristics of the PCVSAT receiving information real time monitor system are introduced. The application system provides various real time monitor functions, such as displaying data transmission status, querying detail information of receiving, sending and lacking in every logical channel, saving and printing the queries results, and giving a real time alarm. It can meet the demand of real time monitor operation.
The important performance and technology characteristics of the PCVSAT receiving information real time monitor system are introduced. The application system provides various real time monitor functions, such as displaying data transmission status, querying detail information of receiving, sending and lacking in every logical channel, saving and printing the queries results, and giving a real time alarm. It can meet the demand of real time monitor operation.
2003, 29(5):34-36.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.008
Abstract:
The occurrence location of the Typhoon 0116 (Nari) is northward. It has a longer lasting time and an anomalous moving track. Many factors, such as steering flow, binary typhoon and upper cold vortex etc., could make influence on the moving track of the typhoon. The analysis of the anomalous moving track of the typhoon 0116 is made, based on the conventional data combined with the GMS IR image.
The occurrence location of the Typhoon 0116 (Nari) is northward. It has a longer lasting time and an anomalous moving track. Many factors, such as steering flow, binary typhoon and upper cold vortex etc., could make influence on the moving track of the typhoon. The analysis of the anomalous moving track of the typhoon 0116 is made, based on the conventional data combined with the GMS IR image.
2003, 29(5):37-40.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.009
Abstract:
The features of surface wind and air diffusion in the Three Gorges dam area is analysed according to the climatic viewpoint. The main results include that the average wind speed in the dam area is slightly greater than that in Yichang station, but Zigui station less distinctly; the wind normal speed is greater in winter and spring, and least in autumn; the calm in morning often appears in autumn and winter; the monsoon feature is not marked, but the wind daily variation distinct, that is to say, it is typical mountain and valley breeze. According to these features, the typical wind field charts in the day and night are given. By wind frequency analysis jointed air stability, it is found that the air diffusion direction pointed to the Changjiang River valley, therefore, the air pollution round this place will be aggravating. As a whole, the air diffusivity is lower in the dam area in autumn and winter.
The features of surface wind and air diffusion in the Three Gorges dam area is analysed according to the climatic viewpoint. The main results include that the average wind speed in the dam area is slightly greater than that in Yichang station, but Zigui station less distinctly; the wind normal speed is greater in winter and spring, and least in autumn; the calm in morning often appears in autumn and winter; the monsoon feature is not marked, but the wind daily variation distinct, that is to say, it is typical mountain and valley breeze. According to these features, the typical wind field charts in the day and night are given. By wind frequency analysis jointed air stability, it is found that the air diffusion direction pointed to the Changjiang River valley, therefore, the air pollution round this place will be aggravating. As a whole, the air diffusivity is lower in the dam area in autumn and winter.
2003, 29(5):41-45.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.010
Abstract:
Based on the synoptic and Doppler radar data, combined with summarized 42 short time regional heavy rain processes from 1996 to 1998, three regional heavy rain conception models are set up and the statistical analysis is given.
Based on the synoptic and Doppler radar data, combined with summarized 42 short time regional heavy rain processes from 1996 to 1998, three regional heavy rain conception models are set up and the statistical analysis is given.
2003, 29(5):46-50.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.5.011
Abstract:
A severe thunderstorm occurred in the north of Zhejiang Province, during the afternoon of July 16 2002. By using of the conventional data and physical data provided by T213 in MICAPS,combined with radar data and satellite cloud image, an analysis of large scale atmospheric circulation and corresponding physical fields associated with this event is made. The results show that the easterly wind in the south side of subtropical high provided plenty of water vapor and energy. In the south of Changjiang River controlled by warm center, it appears high temperature in large range, an atmospheric layer with high temperature and high humidity was formed. In the north cold front and tilted trough, carrying cold air with them, stricked the unstable atmospheric stratification in the northwest of subtropical high, which generated strong convection, triggered the release of unstable energy and provide dynamic lifting for severe thunderstorm.
A severe thunderstorm occurred in the north of Zhejiang Province, during the afternoon of July 16 2002. By using of the conventional data and physical data provided by T213 in MICAPS,combined with radar data and satellite cloud image, an analysis of large scale atmospheric circulation and corresponding physical fields associated with this event is made. The results show that the easterly wind in the south side of subtropical high provided plenty of water vapor and energy. In the south of Changjiang River controlled by warm center, it appears high temperature in large range, an atmospheric layer with high temperature and high humidity was formed. In the north cold front and tilted trough, carrying cold air with them, stricked the unstable atmospheric stratification in the northwest of subtropical high, which generated strong convection, triggered the release of unstable energy and provide dynamic lifting for severe thunderstorm.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P