Abstract:An objective analogue model for medium range weather forecast considered synthetic evaluation by multi criterion is developed. By using filtered parameters of atmosphere general circulation which resemble medium range weather in the spatial temporal resolution, some objective resembling criterions are built up. Through defining the non linear resembling indexes, with which the resemblance between historical and forecasting samples is evaluated under multi criterion, then some resembling samples are got from historical samples in forward and backward extend time intervals. Synthesizing the historical resembling samples, then the medium range weather prediction is formed. The model inspection and prediction tests show the model is able to predicting skills.

Abstract:The heavy rainfall during 8～9 June 1998 is simulated by using the non hydrostatic mesoscale MM5(V3). The discriminable scale rainfall is simulated by using the Reisner Graupel scheme. Results show that the Reisner Graupel scheme has a better ability to simulate the microphysical process . During the period of the maximal precipitation, the most important sources for the rainwater are the graupel and cloudwater. And the cloudwater′s accretion is the main microphysical process for the graupel.

Abstract:A method for computing the water departure based on the CAFEC(Climatically Appropriate for Existing Condition) precipitation is introduced.Based on a hydrologic budget month to month for one area,the CAFEC quantities for evapotranspiration,recharge,runoff,loss water,and precipitation can be computed, and the water departured can be got.As a index of water abnormity ,the water departure d is more fit for measuring water profit and loss for the same period by years.Using this method,the monthly water departures from 1961 to 2000 of Beijing are computed,and the changes of water departures of January,April,July,and October year by year are analysed.

Abstract:The meteorological information storage retrieval system is the system which can uniformly organize and manage the real time meteorological data and the historical meteorological data, and also provides retrieval service. Due to the large amount of data and high price of disk, not all the data can be stored on the disk. Thus, according to their access frequency, the data will be retained on disk which is the first storage device, automatic tape library which is the second storage device and off line tape which is the third storage device,respectively. And the data are managed by commercial DBMS, migration software and archive software. However, the three kinds of software can't uniformly manage data distributed over three kinds of storage device, so a problem that user's retrieval surface isn't uniform is brought about. To solve this problem, the retrieval technique using uniform surface from disk or tape based on commercial DBMS is discussed and a solution is presented.

Abstract:General circulation features over the Northern Hemisphere in 2002 are analyzed. It′s shown that a new El Nino event happened in late spring early summer. The subtropical high at 500hPa over the western Pacific was stronger than normal in 2002. In the summer, the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly was positive in Eurasia, and the positive center was over Lake Baikal, and the blocking high appeared over Lake Baikal in July. The East Asian summer monsoon was stronger than normal, and the South Asian summer monsoon and tropical convection index in summer were weaker than normal. All the features would exert a significant impact on the weather and climate in China in 2002, especially in summer.

Abstract:Global climate has been warming persistently. The year 2002 becomes the second warmest year since 1860. A new El Nino episode began in May. During early winter, the extreme cold and heavy snow weather was experienced in Europe. Serious floods occurred in the eastern part South Asia and Mekong Delta on the Central South (Indo China) Peninsula during the summer monsoon season. Heavy rains frequently occurred in Europe, many countries of which were hit by the century flood in last August. Persistently severe droughts occurred over Indonesia, Australia, the western United States, and most parts of Africa. And,tropical storms over the North Atlantic and the Pacific brought about damages to various extents.

Abstract:The chief climate characteristics in 2002 are showed as following: in most areas, the annual precipitation was more than normal but the distribution was uneven in time and space. Droughts appeared widely in the northern part of China during early spring and hot Autumn days and also occurred along the coast of south China from winter/spring to the beginning of summer due to the less rainfall. In the flood season, no heavy rainfall and floods happened in extensive regions but the spring flood appeared in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. The rain season began earlier than normal in North China. In some areas of South China, heavy rainfall, floods, mountain torrents, mud rock flows and landslides caused severe damages. The mean annual temperature was higher than normal in most areas and the fluctuation of temperature was fairly obvious. The sandstorm weather was concentrative in time and led to wide and serious influences. The landing typhoons number (including the tropical cyclones,storms) is near normal, strong convective weather such as hails and tornadoes occurred more than normal.

Abstract:GMS-5 satellite might stop operating in coming spring. USA will move GOES-9 to 155°E to replace GMS-5, Japan and China will take some emergency measures to continue satellite observation.

Abstract:In consideration of the features of precipitation enhancement operations on convective clouds in South China, a kind of comprehensive criterion, which is more workable for weather modification activities in grass roots regions, is advanced based on several kinds of branch indexes. The operating grade results are compared with the cumulus numerical simulation results and real precipitation results during the operation experiments period in 2001.Thus the feasibility of the operating grade forecast is certificated, which is significant to the guidance of precipitation enhancement operations on convective cloud.

Abstract:According to the yearly high temperature extremes from 1961 to 1996 in Nanjing and other three cities, the short range climate prediction models are developed by use of mean generating function and optimal subset regression methods. The results show that they can not only fit the historical sequences perfectly, but also possess predictive capability for coming 1～5 years' changes to a certain extent.

Abstract:Based on the heavy rainfall in Yunnan province and the reanalysis data(1980-1991)of NCEP/NCAR, the mainly systems and the circulation characteristics at the middle and lower levels coupling the heavy rains are discussed. The results show that there is a closer relationship between the evolution of circulation, humidity field and vapor transfer and the heavy rains in Yunnan.

Abstract:Based on the analysis of the features and evolution of the circulation background,and physical quantities of the heavy rain in Hanzhong during 8-9 June 2002, it is shown that thermal and water vapor conditions in Hanzhong have changed 24 hours before raining, strong positive vorticity at the middle and low levels and strong negative vorticity at the high level overlapped in a narrow region is also a inducement of the heavy rain.