ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 29,Issue 12,2003 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Diagnostic Analysis of Unbalanced Force of Atmospheric Motion and an Abrupt Heavy Rain during July 1998
    陈忠明 徐茂良 闵文彬 高文良
    2003, 29(12):3-9. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.001
    [Abstract](488) [HTML](0) [PDF 519.54 K](450)
    An abrupt heavy rain event occurred in Wuhan from 20 to 22 July 1998 is analyzed by using conventional and satellite data. The results show that: (1) The event was caused by a meso βscale convective cloud cluster. (2) The meso β scale system is not related with strong cyclone vorticity or ant cyclone vorticity center in lower or upper troposphere. The divergence strength of the system is higher 101s-1 than that of vorticity. (3) 10 hours before its occurrence, the atmospheric motion was already unbalanced. After the precipitation, its intensity got strongest and it changed into U >0 from U <0. (4) The unbalanced force of lower atmospheric motion and strong divergence in the upper atmosphere are led to the initiation and development of the meso-βscale system as well as the occurrence of heavy rain.
    2  Hunan Limited-region Numerical Weather Prediction System and Simulation Experiments
    戴泽军 苗春生 周传喜 禹伟
    2003, 29(12):10-13. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.002
    [Abstract](672) [HTML](0) [PDF 297.64 K](532)
    Hunan Limited-region Numerical Weather Prediction System is introduced. The verification results indicate that the model can predict reasonably the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. The results of Numerical simulation experiments show that precipitation forecast is sensitive to cumulus parameterizations schemes, PBL schemes and Radiation schemes.
    3  Study on Late-summer Drought Prediction Model in Chongqing with BP Neural Network
    李永华 刘德 金龙 高阳华
    2003, 29(12):14-17. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.003
    [Abstract](489) [HTML](0) [PDF 352.24 K](492)
    The late-summer drought indexes are defined by using meteorological elements. And the variations of late summer drought in Chongqing is made with analysis of wavelet. The late summer drought prediction model based on BP neural network is established, too. The results show that the variations of late-summer drought in Chongqing contain obvious periodic features. The model is a superior and useful one for the actual operational forecasting.
    4  Analysis of Drought/Flood in the Period of 1470—2000 in Hubei Province
    周月华 高贤来
    2003, 29(12):18-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.004
    [Abstract](593) [HTML](0) [PDF 282.53 K](466)
    Based on the data of Wuhan,Jingzhou,Yichang,Yunxian,Enshi,a drought/flood grade series of Hubei province in the period of 1470—2000 is established.The variation of drought/flood is analyzed.It demonstrated that,in the last 531 years,there're 8.8% more floods than droughts in Hubei province.The recurring period of serious flood was 48 years and that of serious drought was 59 years,and the lasting period of drought was longer than flood. And the 20th century was a century that there were the most drought and flood disasters within the period of 1470—2000,and the first half of 19th century was the most wet period of 50 years.The transformation periods in different centuries were different,and the major periods were 20-,10-11-and 5-6-year.
    5  Application of Error Correction in Forecast Ensemble
    杨松 杞明辉 姚德宽
    2003, 29(12):22-24. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.005
    [Abstract](600) [HTML](0) [PDF 270.10 K](484)
    In consideration of the error comprised of systematic and random error, the error analysis of the May rainfall forecast of several methods in Baoshan, Yunnan Province is made. And first, the systemic error correction method of each forecast technique is found out, to reduce its effect. Then, the corrected forecast is averaged, to eliminate the random error. The results show that mean error and mean square root error decrease obviously, and the forecast accuracy is improved obviously.
    6  Analysis of Inside and Outside Themometer Shelter Air Temperature Characteristics in Nanning
    黄海洪 凌颖 董蕙青
    2003, 29(12):25-28. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.006
    [Abstract](535) [HTML](0) [PDF 272.86 K](446)
    Comparison analysis suggests that the air temperatures of outside and inside themometer shelter are greatly different: the variation of daily maxmum temperature between the outside and inside themometers are closely related with moisture, precipitation and cloud condition. The prediction equations of the outside themometer shelter temperature are obtained by the statistic method.
    7  Mesoscale Analysis of a Yunnan Severe Precipitation Event Arose from Low-Voxtex Shear
    张腾飞 鲁亚斌 普贵明
    2003, 29(12):29-33. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.007
    [Abstract](869) [HTML](0) [PDF 518.74 K](564)
    By analysis of hourly GMS-5 infrared TBB image and intensive observation of Doppler radar, it indicated that the 6 heavy rain events were created by the mesoscale system due to the impact of the mesoscale and microscale low voxtex shear in Sichuan and Yunan. Mesoscale Convective storm Complex(MCC) in the TBB pictures likely occurred in the TBB low value area of ≤-75℃,and on the other hand,due to the squall line,vortex zonality echo and the mesoscale floccus echo on the Doppler radar echoes, likely occurred in the echo intensity area of ≥40dBz.
    8  The Echo Analysis of a Squall Event over Central Yunnan
    张小松 李宏波
    2003, 29(12):34-37. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.008
    [Abstract](448) [HTML](0) [PDF 395.07 K](458)
    The initiation, development and evolution of the squall line on Sep. 8th,2002 over central part of Yunnan Province are analyzed by using the surface observation and radar echo data. The result shows that the weather and physical factors as follows: the thunderstorm occurred, the humidity rose rapidly, and the temperature lapsed when the squalls occurred over the low latitude plateau. The strong wind, heavy rain and hail occurred, and the pressure was discontinuons during the chopping process. The length of squall line is less than 100km and the width is only about 10km. The life time of the squall is about 2 hours. Before it occurred, the radar echo had certain premonitory and changing character.
    9  A Discussion of the Climate Feature and Impact of Sand Dust Weather in Shannxi Province
    雷向杰 胡春娟 田武文 郭菊娥
    2003, 29(12):38-40. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.009
    [Abstract](971) [HTML](0) [PDF 275.95 K](553)
    According to “sand dust weather warning and service temporary rule” formulated by China Meteorological Administration, climate features, distribution and impact of sand dust weather in Shaanxi province are discussed based on data of 94 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2000. Here sand dust weather includes sandstorm, blowing sand and floating dust. Result indicates that more sand dust weather occured in northern Shaanxi than in the southern part, and more sandstorm in Shanbei; There is more blowing sand in northern Shanbei, while more floating dust appeared in southern Shanbei, Guanzhong and Shannan. In addition, the sand dust weather appears more frequently in the spring and winter months than in other months, especially in Apr. In recent 30 years, the sand dust weather tends to decrease.
    10  Effect of Zonal Coastline on Local Precipitation
    刘正奇 谢巨伦
    2003, 29(12):41-44. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.010
    [Abstract](640) [HTML](0) [PDF 241.46 K](489)
    Based on the meso-scale surface observations, the effect of zonal coastline, as an example, from Yangjiang to Dianbai, on local precipitation is analyzed. The results show that in summer, sea and land breeze circulation appears obviously under weak gradient wind condition. In the early morning, and from the afternoon to evening, the sea breeze front moves along the coast with the replacement of the sea and land breeze circulation, local precipitation could appear under certain conditions.
    11  Analysis of Weather Conditions of Heavy Snow Events in Nantong,Jiangsu Province
    陈佩君 徐云
    2003, 29(12):45-47. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.011
    [Abstract](668) [HTML](0) [PDF 204.53 K](572)
    The Analysis of the heavy snow weather conditions, such as the collocation and the intensity of general circulation, physical elements field are made. The result is useful for forecast.
    12  Design and Application of GIS of Meteorological Satellite Remote Sensing in Shandong Province
    赵玉金 赵红
    2003, 29(12):48-50. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.12.012
    [Abstract](422) [HTML](0) [PDF 316.01 K](457)
    The functions and characteristics of MAPTITUDE are introduced. Some methods and steps to establish GIS with MAPTITUDE are given. Based on MAPTITUDE, GIS of Meteorological Satellite Remote Sensing of Shandong Province is set up.This system has applied to calculation and monitoring drought area with remote sensing data.

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