ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 28,Issue 6,2002 Table of Contents

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  • 1  An Operational System of Urumqi Regional Numerical Prediction Model
    张广兴 吕斌
    2002, 28(6):3-7. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.001
    [Abstract](495) [HTML](0) [PDF 380.97 K](539)
    The forecasting system of the regional nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical model is briefly introduced.The combination of the model with the MICAPS platform, the software and the hardware on which the model runs, and the primary experiments to test prediction performance of the system under the local climate and the complex topography in Xinjiang are also carried out.
    2  Digital Logic Theory and Its Application in Meteorological Forecast Ensemble
    张选民 文强 邹希云 张家望 匡昌武
    2002, 28(6):8-10. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.002
    [Abstract](445) [HTML](0) [PDF 246.58 K](585)
    Based on the digital logic theory,it is tried to do forecast ensemble for the multimethods of the 2-group(0,1)meteorological elements by means of designing electric circuit.The result shows the theory has satisfactory effect.Also,the method is based on abundant theoretic evidence,and it is very simple to calculate and easy to program so,it initiates a new way to the forecast ensemble.
    3  Study on Scheme Design of Lightning Location Network
    吴翠红 左申正 万玉发
    2002, 28(6):11-15. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.003
    [Abstract](565) [HTML](0) [PDF 404.84 K](586)
    Based on the principle of lightning location systems and analysis method of error, comparison was made that the locating errors of lightning detecting net in different component ways by using the software including functions as selecting automatically stations and calculation. The results show that the locating accuracy is related with the number of substations and geometrical shape and the distance between substations as well as the algorithm used besides the azimuth error and time error.In addition,a new strategy was put forward and adopted, that is,one substation serves more dominant stations and the several substations cross combined among them still serve different dominant stations,respectively. The technology of designing network of lightning location is studied according to conditions of Hubei Province.
    4  Diagnosis of Heat and Moisture Budgets of a Case of Storm Snow over the Plateau during December of 1997
    刘建军 程麟生
    2002, 28(6):16-22. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.004
    [Abstract](845) [HTML](0) [PDF 533.14 K](734)
    The heat and moisture budgets of a storm snow over the Plateau during Dec.of 1997are diagnosed by using the output data from control simulation,the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V2 of PSU/NCAR,and the equations of heat and moisture budgets.The diagnostic results for the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2) indicate that the positive vertical integrations of the Q1 and Q2 are stronger,and their distribution trend is similar,which also accord with the bands of the storm snow.So,the Q1 and Q2 of this case is the results of the condensation of vapor and the release of latent heat.An important thermodynamics mechanism of the genesis and development of the storm snow is that apparent heat sources Q1 is warm in the middle troposphere and relative cool in the upper troposphere.The peak value area of the area averaged vertical profiles of the Q1 and Q2 is close,this area is just the level of the condensation of vapor,it is concerned to the drying of the condensation of vapor in transpot belts of vapor.Apparent heat sources Q1 and apparent moisture sink Q2 have the same vertical profile which shows that the no convective condensation precipitation is the main factor in the storm snow event.These results provide physical basis for improving and developing meso scale numerical models used to simulate and forecast the storm snow over the Plateau.
    5  Dynamical Analysis of Atmospheric Symetric Instability Mechanism and Its Torrential Rainfall forecast
    景丽 陆汉城
    2002, 28(6):23-27. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.005
    [Abstract](540) [HTML](0) [PDF 359.78 K](712)
    An air parcel method is used to analyse the symmetric instability mechanism and the circulation caused by it.The diagonoses of the case of torrential rain indicate that there is symetric instabilitiy before the precipitation and in the process of it in some area.So it could be concluded that the circulation induced by symmetric instability could induce and strenthen the torrential rain.A method to conform whether there is symmetric instability and the power of it by using conventional observation and radiosonde data is introduced.Furthermore,the forecast of precipitation and its intensity can be made by the method and the accuracy of torrential rain and flood forecast can be greatly improved.
    6  A Method of Evaluation of Long-range Wind Speed from Short-range Wind-records
    薛敏 袁春红 薛桁
    2002, 28(6):28-31. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.06.006
    [Abstract](392) [HTML](0) [PDF 238.52 K](554)
    Bases on the fact that wind field has some degree of spatial correlation, selecting Rudong climatological station and Taiyangtan as the on site,the correlation analysis between both the stations is derived and the regression equation is established under the condition of either taking into account wind directions or not.When considering the wind directions, using sixteen wind direction and four wind direction,respectively. The correlation coefficient is obtained from these two short range wind records,thus, the long range average wind speed of Taiyangtan is further estimated.
    7  Application of Canonical Correlation Method to Forecasting Rainfall during Flood Season in the Plateau of Low Latitude
    张万诚 郑建萌 解明恩
    2002, 28(6):32-34. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.06.007
    [Abstract](427) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.44 M](565)
    By using canonical correlation method,the forecasting experiment of the rainfall during the flood season in Yunan Province is performed.The mean circulation field of 500hPa,its height anomalies in some key regions and sunspot number from January to April during 1960—1997 are selected as the common influence factors,and the canonical correlation models,which include the whole factors and the first ten factors,are built and used to predict the rainfall during the flood season.The results show that the model with the first ten canonical variables in better than that with the whole factors for 1998 and 1999,respectively.The accuracy of prediction in 2000 is 10/16.
    8  Estimation of Dekad Solar Radiation with GMS-5 Data
    刘文 刘洪鹏 王延平
    2002, 28(6):35-38. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.008
    [Abstract](566) [HTML](0) [PDF 296.98 K](651)
    The wider visible frequency range of GMS-5 satellite provides wonderful information for calculating solar radiation to reach the earth surface. First,the feasibility of estimating solar radiation using GMS-5 visible channel data is analysed,and the corresponding method of processing satellite data is given.Then,the statistical relation between the visible albedo and solar irradiance is established , and the estimating model of dekad solar radiation is also discussed. Through the comparison of dekad solar radiation estimating result with actual observation data ,the mean square error is 7.7MJ·m-2,the mean relative error is 3.4%.
    9  A Study of Medium Range Weather Forecast Method of the Annual First Soaking Rain in Ningxia
    陈楠 陈豫英 沈跃琴
    2002, 28(6):39-42. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.009
    [Abstract](551) [HTML](0) [PDF 343.60 K](634)
    Based on the medium range classified circulation pattern,the atmospheric circulation pattern and main weather system which affected on the first soaking rain in Ningxia during 1971—2000 are carefully analyzed.Moreover,the characteristics of average circulation pattern between the pentad when it rained and its previous five days are calculated and analyzed.At last,the medium range notional models under the main circulation patterns for forecasting the first soaking rain are established by using the mean global per five days reanalyzed data of NCEP/NCAR during 1979—1999.
    10  Mesoscale Weather Characteristics of a Torrential Rain Event in Yunnan Province in Early Summer
    许美玲 段旭 孙绩华
    2002, 28(6):43-47. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.06.010
    [Abstract](483) [HTML](0) [PDF 414.67 K](620)
    With the aid of band pass filter,and scale separating method,the various mesoscale systems of a torrential rain occurred in Yunnan area from 30 May to 2 June in 2001 are analyzed.The results show that some mesoscale weather characteristics such as the instability energy,the streamline field and the dynamical structure before the torrential rain are very clear.It is highly importance for us to improve the forecast of torrential rain events.
    11  Analysis of the Reason for Rarely Severe Rainfall of Yunnan in May 2001
    普贵明 鲁亚斌 海云莎
    2002, 28(6):48-51. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.06.011
    [Abstract](502) [HTML](0) [PDF 299.77 K](582)
    The reasons for five severe rain events and unusually great rainfall in May 2001 in Yunnan area are mainly caused by transversal shear produced at the southeastern side of the Qinghai Xizang high on 500hPa, the warm wet southwest air current in the periphery of subtropical high and weakly surface cold air.Furthermore,Iran high moves eastward quickly to Qinghai Xizang Plateau impelling high circulation on 500hPa and 700hPa settled in the Plateau for a long time,cold air and plateau transversal shear affects Yunnan area conscantly,which are main reasons of unusually early rainy season and formation of severe rainfall.
    12  Climatic Change in the Coastland of South China from 1958 to 1999
    2002, 28(6):52-55. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.6.012
    [Abstract](421) [HTML](0) [PDF 297.68 K](624)
    Using the data of temperature and precipitation of six representative meteorological stations in the coastland of South China from 1958 to 1999,the climatic change of the coastland of South China is analysed.The results show that the temperature for the past 42 years appears to be going up(0 188℃/10a),especially during the period of 1990s,and the year 1998 was the warmest year during the last 42 years in the coastland of South China.For this reason ,in terms of the limit of the mid 1980s the climate of the coastland of South China for the past 42 years could be divided into 2 stages,the former is a cold period,and the latter is a warm period.Furthermore,the precipitation for the past 42 years appears to be ascending (29 46mm/10a).
    13  Pollen Concentration Forecast
    白玉荣 刘彬贤 刘艳 庞立 王志良
    2002, 28(6):56-57. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.06.013
    [Abstract](756) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.59 M](607)
    The e0ffect of climate and plant on pollen concentration in the air is discussed. Based on the analysis of the observed data of Hexi district meteorological mast station and Nanjing Road of Heping district meteorological station between April,1994 and Oct.2000,it is found that the change of cyclical and seasonal nature of pollen concentration is clear in a year.The correlation of the observed pollen number in that day,daily range of temperature,and departure of mean daily temperature with number of pollen concentration in the next 24 hours is significant. Using these factors, predictive equations of pollen concentration day by day for Spring, Summer and Autumn were established, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients of the equations are 0.73 and 0.76, respectively, and they have passed F-test.At the same time,the equations are modified by the essentialy factors of precipitation, wind, cloudage as well as phenophase of plant and the forecast accuracy is satisfactory.

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