ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 28,Issue 5,2002 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Climatic and Environmental Information as Inferred from Tree-ring Cellulose Hydrogen Isotopo
    刘晓宏 任贾文 秦大河
    2002, 28(5):3-7. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.001
    [Abstract](663) [HTML](0) [PDF 400.84 K](575)
    A review on the distilling climatic and environmental information from tree ring hydrogen isotope and thein application and achievements to global climatic change is conducted, and the existent problems and prospects in this field are also investigated.
    2  Parameter Optimization of Heavy Rain Intensity Formula Based on Genetic Algorithm
    李祚泳 高攀宇 邓新民
    2002, 28(5):8-10. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.002
    [Abstract](648) [HTML](0) [PDF 202.07 K](656)
    Genetic Algorithm (GA) is a current method for the optimal estimation of model parameters. Genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters of heavy rain intensity formula of different reappearance periods in some regions. The calculated results show that the method of genetic algorithm has the direct perceptibility, simplicity, and generality.
    3  Relationship between Westerly Jet and Summer Monsoon Activities in the South China Sea
    陈双溪 何财福
    2002, 28(5):11-16. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.003
    [Abstract](496) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.70 M](568)
    In the view of data analyses, it is indicated that the variation of general circulation systems such as the subtropical westerly jet in both Hemispheres, the easterly jet, the Tibetan Plateau high and the Mexican high is greatly different between the period that the summer monsoon is in activity in the South China Sea (SCS) and the period that the SCS monsoon is in inactivity. The results are also shown that the activity or inactivity of the summer monsoon in the SCS is determined by the different phase of the northward propagating low frequency oscillation (LFO) of wind divergence field from the Southern Hemisphere and the phase of southward propagating LFO of westerly wind field from the Northern Hemisphere. And the phase locked of different type LFO in the SCS is the determinant factor in controlling the timing of activity of the SCS monsoon.
    4  Analysis of Water Vapor Characteristics of Torrential Rainfall in South China with GPS Data
    杨红梅 何平 徐宝祥
    2002, 28(5):17-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.004
    [Abstract](814) [HTML](0) [PDF 354.58 K](670)
    Based on GPS (Global Positioning System) data observed at the intervals of half an hour during the period of the Huanan (South China) Torrential Rainfall Experiment from 5 May to 26 June 1998,analysis results reveal that the characteristics of moisture variation and moisture increasing manner of the total water content with in the local column air.It indicates that increasing and decreasing of the total water content within the column in of discontinuity evidently.This is directly associated with variation of general circulation and with outbreak of Huanan Torrential Rainfall.
    5  Physical Causation and Forecast of Strong Clear-air Turbulence
    曹美兰 项素清
    2002, 28(5):22-26. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.005
    [Abstract](540) [HTML](0) [PDF 317.03 K](673)
    The strong clear air turbulence is the outburst gale which takes place at the seashore area in winter and often causes the disastrous nautical accidents.The physical causation and forecast of the strong clear air turbulence according to atmospheric circulation characters are discussed.It comes to the conclusion that the strong clear air turbulence is caused by the energy transition of the baroclinic atmosphere,the activity of northwest jet and the momentum downward transfer.On the basis of these analyses,the forecast idea and method of the strong clear air turbulence,are brought forward.
    6  Forecasting of Dust Storm Weather in Xining Region
    保广裕 高顺年 戴升 达成荣
    2002, 28(5):27-31. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.006
    [Abstract](610) [HTML](0) [PDF 381.68 K](634)
    The atmospheric circulation, the intensity of cold air and the thermal instability are analyzed through the twenty-three cases of sandstorm weather events affecting Xining region. The scientific method of the sandstorm weather now forecasting in Xining region are obtained.
    7  Relationship between Summer Temperature Anomalous Patterns in Jiangsu Province and SSTA Fields
    朱筱英 吴志伟
    2002, 28(5):32-36. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.007
    [Abstract](567) [HTML](0) [PDF 337.31 K](650)
    Summer temperature anomalies (June to August) at 11 stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 1999 are analyzed in terms of the EOF analysis .The 500 hPa height and sea temperature fields are also analyzed and some useful results for the prediction of summer temperature are abtained.
    8  A Display System of NCEP/NCAR′s 40-year Reanalysis Data
    严军 刘健文
    2002, 28(5):37-39. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.008
    [Abstract](714) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.11 M](657)
    According to the 40 year (1958 to 1997) record of global reanalysis data of atmospheric fields from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research,USA), a display system was developed by applying the database software Visual Foxpro and the meteorological software package GrADS. It has the function of displaying kinds of figures in agreement with user′s choice in area, time and map projection, and exporting the data in usual format.
    9  Methods of Forecasting Air Quality at Hefei City
    朱红芳 王东勇
    2002, 28(5):40-43. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.009
    [Abstract](610) [HTML](0) [PDF 246.51 K](593)
    By using the methods of MOS and Kalman filter, two forecasting models for Hefei′s air pollution are established. The models provide the necessary supporting technology to make the forecast of air pollution at Hefei City.
    10  Application of k-nn Method to Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track
    陈见 杨宇红 张诚忠 郑宏翔
    2002, 28(5):44-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.010
    [Abstract](515) [HTML](0) [PDF 179.37 K](739)
    Combined with prediction factors which are turned out to be preferable by practice forecasting, a forecasting system of tropical cyclone track is developed by the k-nn method. The results show that it is satisfying, and can apply to routine operational forecasting as well.
    11  Preliminary Study of Rolling Correlative Analysis Method for Investigating History Data
    侯淑梅 孙忠欣 孙秀忠 蔡冬梅 信志红
    2002, 28(5):47-49. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.011
    [Abstract](487) [HTML](0) [PDF 224.15 K](633)
    A new method,rolling correlative analysis, which can generally investigate the history data is introduced,and then the comparison analysis between rolling correlation and general correlation methods is carried out.The results show that the correlation of the factors which are gained from rolling correlation method is more stable,and its forecast accuracy is better than general correlation method.
    12  A Meteorological Service System in Heating Days at Shijiazhuang City
    车少静 傅炳珊 石志增
    2002, 28(5):50-52. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.013
    [Abstract](553) [HTML](0) [PDF 225.31 K](573)
    Based on the temperature data for 45 years (1955-1999) in heating days,a meteorological service system for the various periods is studied.It can provide the beginning and ending heating data,respectively.It can also provide the temperature forecast hour by hour.The system has a good social and economic benefits.
    13  A Relationship between Meteorological Elements and Intestinal Infection and Its Forecast
    张晓云 刘彬贤 刘艳 张之伦 谢咏
    2002, 28(5):53-55. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2002.5.014
    [Abstract](452) [HTML](0) [PDF 189.47 K](593)
    Based on the synchronization data of Tianjin intestinal infection and the meteorological observation,the periodic law of outbreak of intestinal infection caused by meteorological factors was analyzed and the regression forecast equations of monthly intestinal infection were given.The results show that the forecasting effect is satisfying.

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