ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 27,Issue 6,2001 Table of Contents

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  • 1  The New Development and the Outlook of the Operational Ensemble Prediction System
    2001, 27(6):3-9. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.001
    [Abstract](557) [HTML](0) [PDF 461.14 K](797)
    The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.Some problems existed in the operational EPS such as the generation of initial perturbations, multi model ensembles, the application of ensemble products and its verifications are described, and the outlook of this perspective technique is exhibited.
    2  Study on Application of CAPPS
    朱蓉 徐大海 孙明华
    2001, 27(6):10-16. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.002
    [Abstract](602) [HTML](0) [PDF 457.13 K](735)
    The principle of forecasting pollution potential index(PPI) and air pollution index(API), the method for prediction of fly ash and some parameters in CAPPS are explained and discussed for answering the questions in operational application of CAPPS.
    3  Influences of O3 on the Leaf Injury Photosynthesis and Yield of Rice
    白月明 郭建平 刘玲 温民
    2001, 27(6):17-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.003
    [Abstract](578) [HTML](0) [PDF 357.38 K](797)
    Using farmland open top chamber OTC-1, A long time touch experiment with different O3 concentrations was made. The results show that when the concentration of O3 are higher than 100×10-9,the leaf of rice would suffer direct injury, thereby reducing the photosynthetic capacity and yield.
    4  An Analysis of Strong Sandstorm on 12th April
    徐建芬 陶健红 杨民 杨建才
    2001, 27(6):22-26. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.004
    [Abstract](618) [HTML](0) [PDF 330.56 K](702)
    A strong sandstorm weather process occurred on the 12th April 2000 in Gansu,Shanxi and Ningxia provinces is analyzed.The results show that the event was caused by the northwest strong cold air.Before the occurrence of sandstorm,continual temperature rising was the favorable thermal condition,and the development of Hexi cyclonic eddy was meso scale system which stimulated the sandstorm.The development and persistence of dry warmer sector in northwest is the index of its occurrence.Unbalanced state of the abnormal jet intensified the front over middle and lower troposphere and the unsteady atmospheric level which provided a favorable large scale circulation environment.Moreover,the long and narrow terrain and special quicksand,quick ore sand over the ground surface also provided a favorable condition geographically.
    5  Some Problems of the Calibrations of Digit Weather Radars
    张沛源 周海光 梁海河 胡绍萍
    2001, 27(6):27-32. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.005
    [Abstract](746) [HTML](0) [PDF 402.09 K](786)
    The calibrations of weather radars are the bases of quantitative measurements.Some problems of the calibrations of digit weather radars are discussed and the methods are advanced to solve these problems.
    6  Discussion on Urban Air Quality Prediction(Diurnal) Operation System In Shanghai
    谈建国 邵德民 黄家鑫 蒋明皓
    2001, 27(6):33-35. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.006
    [Abstract](606) [HTML](0) [PDF 285.87 K](770)
    The frame of urban air quality prediction(diurnal)system which is the co-operative productions of Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center and Shanghai Urban Environmental Meteorological Research Center, and its sub-systems of data collection, information exchange,prediction production and product promulgation were discribed.Five air models(or methods) used for daily urban air pollution index prediction and its forecasting precision were discussed. The result is that based on the analysis of local meteorological conditions, the air quality prediction in Shanghai is feasible through these models (or methods), and forecasting precision was satisfactory.
    7  Operational Application and Study on the System of Soil Moisture Forecast and Irrigation Decision in Winter Wheat Area
    毛飞 张光智 周丽
    2001, 27(6):36-39. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.007
    [Abstract](616) [HTML](0) [PDF 340.94 K](680)
    An operational service system for soil moisture prediction and irrigation decision, applied in a site or throughout the country, was established. With the system, fifteen soil moisture predictions and irrigation decisions,once a week from March to June in 2000 were made. Thirteen of the whole were broadcasted on the programme for the 'Meteorology and Agricultural Information′ of CCTV 7 and served to agricultural production directly. The error analyses showed that average relative error in 0~100cm was the lowest,0~50cm lower and 0~30cm the highest. The distribution of soil moisture that was forecasted was as nearly same as that was measured.
    8  An Application of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) to Rainfall Mid-range Forecasting
    2001, 27(6):40-42. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.008
    [Abstract](827) [HTML](0) [PDF 297.03 K](804)
    The application of artificial neural network to rainfall mid range forecasting was discussed by combining it with statistics means. The statistics means was used to forecast rain or not. Then ANN was used to develop rainfall forecast model. Studies suggest that ANN is an effectual way to improve rainfall forecast, but it was unfavorable for heavy rain forecast.
    9  Precipitation Distribution Pattern of China in July and Its Cause
    熊敏诠 陈菊英
    2001, 27(6):43-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.009
    [Abstract](395) [HTML](0) [PDF 291.02 K](606)
    The division of seven precipitation patterns is made by applying both of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and cluster analysis , based on the data of monthly precipitation at 160 stations in China during 1951—2000.Their features in atmospheric and oceanic anomaly fields are analyzed.Furthermore , the possible cause of every precipitation distribution is studied.
    10  Research on Graphics Analysis Operational System of Surface Climatic Elements in China
    高歌 张强 高波
    2001, 27(6):47-50. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.010
    [Abstract](779) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.83 M](870)
    By means of an American software—the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS),many difficult points of the GrADS plot technique were resolved and studied , for example, expansion of map data, grid making and choosing of boundary and background analysis, Chinese processing , GrADS working principle and smoothing.The graphics analysis operational system of ground climatic elements in China is further developed.The results can be applied to operational service, research and Internet display.
    11  The Impact of Climate Change upon Water Resource of Ningbo City
    钱燕珍 张建勋 胡亚旦 何彩芬 罗林
    2001, 27(6):51-54. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2001.6.011
    [Abstract](703) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.03 M](708)
    Having computed several parameters about water resource of Ningbo city, it is realized that the status of the water resource of Ningbo.According to the the water necessities in the agriculture,industry, people′s daily living and economy development, an analysis of the impact of the Ningbo climate on the changes of water resource and suggestions about how to fully exploit and use the water resource are put forward.

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