Abstract:The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.Some problems existed in the operational EPS such as the generation of initial perturbations, multi model ensembles, the application of ensemble products and its verifications are described, and the outlook of this perspective technique is exhibited.

Abstract:The principle of forecasting pollution potential index(PPI) and air pollution index(API), the method for prediction of fly ash and some parameters in CAPPS are explained and discussed for answering the questions in operational application of CAPPS.

Abstract:Using farmland open top chamber OTC-1, A long time touch experiment with different O₃ concentrations was made. The results show that when the concentration of O₃ are higher than 100×10^-9,the leaf of rice would suffer direct injury, thereby reducing the photosynthetic capacity and yield.

Abstract:A strong sandstorm weather process occurred on the 12th April 2000 in Gansu,Shanxi and Ningxia provinces is analyzed.The results show that the event was caused by the northwest strong cold air.Before the occurrence of sandstorm,continual temperature rising was the favorable thermal condition,and the development of Hexi cyclonic eddy was meso scale system which stimulated the sandstorm.The development and persistence of dry warmer sector in northwest is the index of its occurrence.Unbalanced state of the abnormal jet intensified the front over middle and lower troposphere and the unsteady atmospheric level which provided a favorable large scale circulation environment.Moreover,the long and narrow terrain and special quicksand,quick ore sand over the ground surface also provided a favorable condition geographically.

Abstract:The calibrations of weather radars are the bases of quantitative measurements.Some problems of the calibrations of digit weather radars are discussed and the methods are advanced to solve these problems.

Abstract:The frame of urban air quality prediction(diurnal)system which is the co-operative productions of Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center and Shanghai Urban Environmental Meteorological Research Center, and its sub-systems of data collection, information exchange,prediction production and product promulgation were discribed.Five air models(or methods) used for daily urban air pollution index prediction and its forecasting precision were discussed. The result is that based on the analysis of local meteorological conditions, the air quality prediction in Shanghai is feasible through these models (or methods), and forecasting precision was satisfactory.

Abstract:An operational service system for soil moisture prediction and irrigation decision, applied in a site or throughout the country, was established. With the system, fifteen soil moisture predictions and irrigation decisions,once a week from March to June in 2000 were made. Thirteen of the whole were broadcasted on the programme for the 'Meteorology and Agricultural Information′ of CCTV 7 and served to agricultural production directly. The error analyses showed that average relative error in 0～100cm was the lowest,0～50cm lower and 0～30cm the highest. The distribution of soil moisture that was forecasted was as nearly same as that was measured.

Abstract:The application of artificial neural network to rainfall mid range forecasting was discussed by combining it with statistics means. The statistics means was used to forecast rain or not. Then ANN was used to develop rainfall forecast model. Studies suggest that ANN is an effectual way to improve rainfall forecast, but it was unfavorable for heavy rain forecast.

Abstract:The division of seven precipitation patterns is made by applying both of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and cluster analysis , based on the data of monthly precipitation at 160 stations in China during 1951—2000.Their features in atmospheric and oceanic anomaly fields are analyzed.Furthermore , the possible cause of every precipitation distribution is studied.

Abstract:By means of an American software—the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS),many difficult points of the GrADS plot technique were resolved and studied , for example, expansion of map data, grid making and choosing of boundary and background analysis, Chinese processing , GrADS working principle and smoothing.The graphics analysis operational system of ground climatic elements in China is further developed.The results can be applied to operational service, research and Internet display.

Abstract:Having computed several parameters about water resource of Ningbo city, it is realized that the status of the water resource of Ningbo.According to the the water necessities in the agriculture,industry, people′s daily living and economy development, an analysis of the impact of the Ningbo climate on the changes of water resource and suggestions about how to fully exploit and use the water resource are put forward.