Abstract:A simple scheme for establishing bilinear time series model(BM) is presented to predict drought and flood series.The examples show that the scheme applied to the drought and flood prediction series in Jianghuai area is practical and universal.The scheme has major theoretic value and wide ranging application for predicting the time series of various natural disasters.

Abstract:By using of the helicity theory,humidity and stability condition,the torrential rain in the southeast and the northern of the central Shandong province during August 11—12,1999 was diagnosed.The analysis results show that the rainstorm is produced in higher temperature,higher humidity and unstable atmosphere.There is higher positive k helicity at 500hPa and at low levels.Rainstorm occurs near the positive center of helicity at 850hPa.The variation of helicity indicates weather systems moving developing and falling area and intensity of torrential rain.Helicity also reflects the distribution of vertical moving and rotation status of atmosphere.

Abstract:The features and types of impact of flooding on highway were analysed and a statistical model of the relationship between length of highway damaged and crop area covered by flooding was made.

Abstract:The working flow of short-term forecast for severe convection in Shanghai area was described,which is set up based on the Micaps working flat,including the short-term future forecast,the nowcasting monitor scrolling forecast for 0 to 3 hours.The test results during Jun.to Aug.1999 and the physical reasons of those missing forecast were analyzed.

Abstract:Based on the synoptic situation and the wind profiler data,the detailed physical analysis of a tornado,which occurred on 6 September 1999,was given.Accumulating with westerly trough,the momentum of Tropical-Storm-9909′s remains increased suddenly and a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) formed.Four tornadoes developed in this MCC.It is found that there are apparently inversion structure and a 360-degree backing of wind direction in low level warm column at the mature stage of tornado.The air is very unstable with an index of SI below -6℃.

Abstract:By using of the conventional data and physical parameters provided by the limited area model,according to the principle of meteorology,the causes of the persisting heavy rain process of June 23—28,1999 occurred in Shanghai were analyzed.The results show that the persisting heavy rain occurs in the condition of the large-scale circulation systems remaining anomalous stability and the multi-scale weather systems interacting and standing in a suitable situation.Meanwhile the vapor,dynamic condition and instability energy which play an important role in the heavy rain persistence were also discussed.

Abstract:An analysis of the extraordinary precipitation in the summer of 1999 over Shanghai area was given.The results show that the climatic background and the anomalous changes of South Asia monsoon,South China sea monsoon,subtropical anticyclone and equatorial belt of convergence as well as middle latitude blocking high are some of the main factors.

Abstract:The circulation features and its formation cause in Shanghai in 1999 were investigated,including mei-yu quantity,mei-yu period,the beginning and ending of mei-yu,and its relationship with the subtropical high,East Asian summer monsoon intensity index,the convective activity in tropical zone and typhoon were discussed.The results show that the intensity of subtropical high is weaker,the ridge line of subtropical high is leaning to south and east,the East Asian summer monsoon intensity index is weaker and begins earlier,ITCZ is not active,typhoon sums are less,and they are the formation factors of the mei yu anomaly in Shanghai in 1999.

Abstract:Based on sounding and echoes from 711 radar the feature altitude and the water contents in the hail growth zone were calculated.In every operating point,a calculation formula for calculating the amount of shells using in the hail suppression can be gained.The calculated result and the actual operating condition were compared.The method could fitted calculating the amount of shells using in the hail supression in Shandong regoin.

Abstract:A superposed analogue range consensus forecast method was presented.The method was applied to the precipitation forecast in flood season.The result shows that calculation is in good consistent with observations.

Abstract:The characteristics of climate warming since the late 1980s and their influence on winter wheat at seedling stage in Jiangsu province were discussed.The temperatures of wheat through winter and at seeding and seedling stages were analysed.The influence features of climate warming on winter wheat in Jiangsu province suggested as follow:①the influent time occurs during the stage from seeding through winter;②the influent area is located in the north region of the Huaihe river and the south region of the Yangtse river;and③the minimum temperature is upward apparently.Finally,some practical countermeasures of agricluture production and management were provided.

Abstract:The characteristics of the precipitation over the middle reaches of the Changjiang river are concentrated rainfall and the total rainfall amount is 734.7mm from June to July in 1998.In June,1999,the rainfall amount over the middle reaches of the Changjiang river is 325.5mm,the rainfall amount over the lower reaches of the Changjiang river is 636 2mm.The monthly rainfall amount is maximum in Anqing and Shanghai since 1949.The upper level jet lays in the northeast of South Asia high,the low-level jet lays in the northwest of subtropical Pacific high in middle and lower atmosphere.There is a upward current and a wet tongue associated with vortex and hard rain between the upper-level jet and the low level jet.This is of the characteristics of monsoon stream tube.

Abstract:The weather conditions the satellite cloud pictures the radar echoes and the characteristics of a frontal precipitation process occurred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 13 to 14 June 1999,was analysed.Cloud distribution of frontal precipitation was discussed according to the characteristics,and the scientific base was provided for cloud seeding activities.