ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Volume 26,Issue 7,2000 Table of Contents
2000, 26(7):3-8.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.001
Abstract:
The source,characteristics and advantages of four global sea surface temperature(SST) data sets were discussed.By using empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),the temporal and spatial features represented by different data sets were analyzed.Finally,two SST data sets with smallest difference were merged to meet the needs of operational application.
The source,characteristics and advantages of four global sea surface temperature(SST) data sets were discussed.By using empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),the temporal and spatial features represented by different data sets were analyzed.Finally,two SST data sets with smallest difference were merged to meet the needs of operational application.
2000, 26(7):9-11.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.002
Abstract:
With the criteria of linear and nonlinear symmetric instability theory,the mechanism of the heavy snowstorm of January 17—18 1995(″95.1″)occurred in the northeast region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was diagnosed by using the output data of a MM5 mesoscale numerical model with which the developing structure and the evolution of the ″95.1″ snowstorn were fairly well simulated.The results suggested that the positive σ2 is corresponding to the development and movement of the snowstorm and the limited comparison lends some support to the hypothesis that non linear CSI can be a dominant formative mechanism of the ″95.1″ snowstorm,though more sophisticated studies are required.
With the criteria of linear and nonlinear symmetric instability theory,the mechanism of the heavy snowstorm of January 17—18 1995(″95.1″)occurred in the northeast region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was diagnosed by using the output data of a MM5 mesoscale numerical model with which the developing structure and the evolution of the ″95.1″ snowstorn were fairly well simulated.The results suggested that the positive σ2 is corresponding to the development and movement of the snowstorm and the limited comparison lends some support to the hypothesis that non linear CSI can be a dominant formative mechanism of the ″95.1″ snowstorm,though more sophisticated studies are required.
2000, 26(7):12-16.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.003
Abstract:
The principle of EOF-CCA model and its steps of development were briefly introduced.The inevitability and superiority were illustrated when the two methods EOF and CCA were used in the combination form of EOF-CCA in the prediction of short-range climatic change.It was also pointed out that with this model another climatic field based on one or more climatic fields could be forecasted.Seasonal precipitation of 13 stations in Shandong province was the forecasted field and previous monthly average geopotential height fields at 500hPa over northern hemisphere and east Asia were used as factor fields.Thus the EOF-CCA model was set up.Finally the model′s historical fit and prediction effect were assessed,which shows that the model has rather good ability in forecasting seasonal precipitation and can be used in the operation.
The principle of EOF-CCA model and its steps of development were briefly introduced.The inevitability and superiority were illustrated when the two methods EOF and CCA were used in the combination form of EOF-CCA in the prediction of short-range climatic change.It was also pointed out that with this model another climatic field based on one or more climatic fields could be forecasted.Seasonal precipitation of 13 stations in Shandong province was the forecasted field and previous monthly average geopotential height fields at 500hPa over northern hemisphere and east Asia were used as factor fields.Thus the EOF-CCA model was set up.Finally the model′s historical fit and prediction effect were assessed,which shows that the model has rather good ability in forecasting seasonal precipitation and can be used in the operation.
2000, 26(7):17-19.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.004
Abstract:
Some dominant correlation regions were selected by the results of correlation analysis between summer precipitation of Guizhou and previous 500hPa ten days average height.A forecast method of summer precipitation was developed based on the results of grid analogue discrete degree with historical dominant correlation region and predictive year.The forecasting results in 1998—1999 indicate that this method is efficient.
Some dominant correlation regions were selected by the results of correlation analysis between summer precipitation of Guizhou and previous 500hPa ten days average height.A forecast method of summer precipitation was developed based on the results of grid analogue discrete degree with historical dominant correlation region and predictive year.The forecasting results in 1998—1999 indicate that this method is efficient.
2000, 26(7):20-22.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.07.005
Abstract:
According to the relationship between monthly rainfall and monthly general circulation and making use of dynamical extended range forecast products of National Climate Center′s T63 model,Kalman filter method was applied to attempt the monthly rainfall prediction.The result indicates that reexplanation and reanalysis of model dynamical products in this way have a good applied prospect in short range climatic prediction.
According to the relationship between monthly rainfall and monthly general circulation and making use of dynamical extended range forecast products of National Climate Center′s T63 model,Kalman filter method was applied to attempt the monthly rainfall prediction.The result indicates that reexplanation and reanalysis of model dynamical products in this way have a good applied prospect in short range climatic prediction.
2000, 26(7):23-26.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.006
Abstract:
A case study of typhoon cyclone was made by means of synoptic and dynamic methods.Because the practice of weather forcast shows that the vertical velocity may be used as a better indication for cyclone development,the emphasis was put on the computation analyses of the vertical velocity field in the cyclone region.By using interpolation,an attempt was made to compensate the errors in calculating divergence caused by the wind data.The computed results are in agreement with the cyclone observations and the satellite photographs.
A case study of typhoon cyclone was made by means of synoptic and dynamic methods.Because the practice of weather forcast shows that the vertical velocity may be used as a better indication for cyclone development,the emphasis was put on the computation analyses of the vertical velocity field in the cyclone region.By using interpolation,an attempt was made to compensate the errors in calculating divergence caused by the wind data.The computed results are in agreement with the cyclone observations and the satellite photographs.
2000, 26(7):27-31.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.007
Abstract:
The prominent correlative period of electricity supply and weather conditions was obtained by pertinent analysis for 1988-1998 data in Shenyang.The quantity relationship of monthly power supply and monthly temperature anomalous,monthly precipitation anomalous percentage and the quantity relationship of daily power supply and temperature,precipitation etc.were calculated based on distilling weather electricity quantity by means of nonlinear curve fitting.Then,the prediction system of monthly and daily electricity supply was established according to the routine weather forecast,which provided special products for the electricity department.
The prominent correlative period of electricity supply and weather conditions was obtained by pertinent analysis for 1988-1998 data in Shenyang.The quantity relationship of monthly power supply and monthly temperature anomalous,monthly precipitation anomalous percentage and the quantity relationship of daily power supply and temperature,precipitation etc.were calculated based on distilling weather electricity quantity by means of nonlinear curve fitting.Then,the prediction system of monthly and daily electricity supply was established according to the routine weather forecast,which provided special products for the electricity department.
2000, 26(7):32-35.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.008
Abstract:
通过对北京HLAFS暴雨模式产品中诸多物理量场与历史个例进行动力过程相似检验，在较全面地掌握预报对象的三维空间物理结构和动力过程前提下，通过渗入有明确天气学意义、并对宁夏暴雨有实际预报能力的综合指标和模型，在天气系统自动识别技术的支持下，应用螺旋度修正方案，建立自动、客观化的暴雨落区预报系统。
通过对北京HLAFS暴雨模式产品中诸多物理量场与历史个例进行动力过程相似检验，在较全面地掌握预报对象的三维空间物理结构和动力过程前提下，通过渗入有明确天气学意义、并对宁夏暴雨有实际预报能力的综合指标和模型，在天气系统自动识别技术的支持下，应用螺旋度修正方案，建立自动、客观化的暴雨落区预报系统。
2000, 26(7):36-39.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.009
Abstract:
In order to meet the needs of meteorological service,the system was developed.Using this software,different service products can be made.According to different weather conditions,it can provide the decision making with appropriate suggestions.The computer controls directly the interphone of weather warning by voice sensing and it can be operated automatically too.This system even has such a function of remind of all tasks.It is well programmed with VC++5.0,which can be operated easily and can meet various requirements.Now the system has been used in some stations in Jiangsu province.
In order to meet the needs of meteorological service,the system was developed.Using this software,different service products can be made.According to different weather conditions,it can provide the decision making with appropriate suggestions.The computer controls directly the interphone of weather warning by voice sensing and it can be operated automatically too.This system even has such a function of remind of all tasks.It is well programmed with VC++5.0,which can be operated easily and can meet various requirements.Now the system has been used in some stations in Jiangsu province.
2000, 26(7):40-44.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.010
Abstract:
By using of weather maps,typhoon yearbooks,GMS satellite cloud images and ECMWF grid dataset,the characteristics of tropical cyclones over northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 1999 were analyzed and summarized.Also analysis based on synoptic and climatic background was conducted with an attempt to explain the characteristics.
By using of weather maps,typhoon yearbooks,GMS satellite cloud images and ECMWF grid dataset,the characteristics of tropical cyclones over northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 1999 were analyzed and summarized.Also analysis based on synoptic and climatic background was conducted with an attempt to explain the characteristics.
2000, 26(7):45-49.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.011
Abstract:
The relationship between Yunan rainy season early or late onset and South Asia high variation at 100hPa,geopotentical height anomaly feature over mid-high latitude at 500hPa was analysed.It is concluded that characteristic law of El Nino/La Nino events and southwest monsoon onset,Yunnan rainy season early or late onset was presented.The forecast thinking of Yunnan rainy season early or late onset was suggested.
The relationship between Yunan rainy season early or late onset and South Asia high variation at 100hPa,geopotentical height anomaly feature over mid-high latitude at 500hPa was analysed.It is concluded that characteristic law of El Nino/La Nino events and southwest monsoon onset,Yunnan rainy season early or late onset was presented.The forecast thinking of Yunnan rainy season early or late onset was suggested.
2000, 26(7):50-55.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.7.012
Abstract:
In the case of continuity heavy rain over north Fujian province during the middle ten days of June in 1998,the circulation features,the influence of weather system and particular topography on the radar echoes,the activities of the meso scale echo system and the minor scale intensive echo group devoting to precipitation were synthetically analysed.The regularity of echo development is helpful to increase the very short range forecast effectiveness of the radar.
In the case of continuity heavy rain over north Fujian province during the middle ten days of June in 1998,the circulation features,the influence of weather system and particular topography on the radar echoes,the activities of the meso scale echo system and the minor scale intensive echo group devoting to precipitation were synthetically analysed.The regularity of echo development is helpful to increase the very short range forecast effectiveness of the radar.
2000, 26(7):56-57.
DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2000.07.013
Abstract:
The recent 42 years climate data of Liaocheng city,Sandong province was analysed. Its changing regularity and characteristics were studied.The influence of climate change on agricultural production at Liaocheng city was discussed.
The recent 42 years climate data of Liaocheng city,Sandong province was analysed. Its changing regularity and characteristics were studied.The influence of climate change on agricultural production at Liaocheng city was discussed.
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ISSN:1000-0526 CN:11-2282/P