ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 24,Issue 2,1998 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Study on the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis:A Review
    吴金栋 王馥棠
    1998, 24(2):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.001
    [Abstract](515) [HTML](0) [PDF 434.33 K](504)
    he Necessity for the study on creation of climate change scenarios is analyzed in the light of the simple review of the recent progress in the impact studies of climate change on agriculture,i.e. understanding of the difficulties in coupling General Circulation Models (GCMs) with impact models,and knowledge of climatic and crop yield variability. Consequently,future climate impact studies should become more focused on scenarios' construction in order to get the true results. The creating techniques of climate change scenarios,including historical instrumentally based scenarios,paleoclimatic analogue scenarios,arbitrary scenarios,scenarios from GCMs' outputs and synthetically generated scenarios from Weather Geneator (WGEN),etc. are elaborated as well as their implication,requirement,advantages,disadvantages and usage scopes. Especially,the down scaling techniques in the GCMs based scenarios and the fundamentals of WGEN are discussed in detail. This revie addresses a promising method to produce reasonable climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution by combining the information from GCMs simulation and WGEN,thus incorporating climatic variability either,and it should be developed in the future.
    2  A Numerical Simulation of a MCC and its Torrential Rain in the Tropical Cyclone 9610
    陈逢流 刘铭
    1998, 24(2):9-12. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.02.002
    [Abstract](427) [HTML](0) [PDF 354.65 K](462)
    ased on observational data and a mesoscale numerical model (MM4),the numeric simulational results of a deep mesoscale vortex at high level which related to a heavy rain event are presented. The heavy rain caused a severe damage and lots of people death after tropical cyclone 9610 landed over Fujian province. The simulation and analysis also gave the reasons for the heavy rainfall.
    3  The Structure and Character of Mei yu Front Storm over the Middle and Lower of Yangtze River
    杨克明 许映龙 王东生 刘江云
    1998, 24(2):13-17. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.003
    [Abstract](1189) [HTML](0) [PDF 322.61 K](551)
    ith applying parameters calculated by HLAFS model of NMC,the physical conditions with which associated a persistent severe torrential rain process of the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze river during the Mei yu period in 1996 are analyzed and diagnosed. Wind field,vertical circulation,relevant physical variable field construction and its distribution character of Mei yu front strong torrential rain are presented. All results are benificial to real time operational forecast and research work.
    4  Forecasting Model of the Yield Elements for Cotton
    1998, 24(2):18-21. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.004
    [Abstract](484) [HTML](0) [PDF 275.91 K](453)
    he number and weight of the cotton bolll per plant were main elements which causes the yield variation of cotton. Combining the field observations with climatological statistics,the bud numbers per plant,the matural boll percentage and the boll weight of cotton were predicted first. Then the final cotton yield as forecasted. The accuracy of the yield forecast model was improved.
    5  An Example of Extremum Distribution of Daily Mazimum Precipitation
    杨舵 张学文
    1998, 24(2):22-23. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.005
    [Abstract](557) [HTML](0) [PDF 112.16 K](479)
    It is formulated that the daily maximum precipitation obeys the extremum distribution in Kashi of Xinjiang by means of empirical and statistical theory method. Its distribution function is p(R)=1-exp{-exp[-1/6.78(R-13.58)]}This gave an example that its maxima obeys extremum distribution when the distribution of an random variable is exponentical one.
    6  The Composite Identification of Precipitation Cloud Using GMS Multichannel Data
    刘文 边道相 张苏平
    1998, 24(2):24-26. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.006
    [Abstract](445) [HTML](0) [PDF 242.27 K](490)
    sing the GMS-5 multichannel data and the precipitation data from the self recording rain gauges at 95 stations in Shandong province during 12 precipitation events from Jul. to Oct. in 1995,the relationship between the multichannel data and the precipitation probability was analysed. The composite identification of precipitation clouds using GMS multichannel data was discussed.
    7  The Application of Composite Factors of Synoptic Dynamics to the MOS Precipitation Forecasting Method
    孙永刚 李彰俊 孟雪峰 刘增良 孔令红
    1998, 24(2):27-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.007
    [Abstract](878) [HTML](0) [PDF 263.77 K](568)
    predictive equation was built by using MOS method,after making up the structural characteristic factors which can reflect the mechanism of the synoptic dynamic development of precipitation systems. During research,the HLAFS grid point data of the numerical forecast products by our country is used to formulate the synoptic dynamic development characteristic in Inner Monglia region. The experiment results show that this MOS equation can improve the prediction accuracy,be put into the routine meteorological operation easily and thereby have a good application and popularization value
    8  The Application of Satellite Image to the Very Short Term Precipitation Forecasting
    刘正本 赵守春 孙献革
    1998, 24(2):31-33. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.008
    [Abstract](546) [HTML](0) [PDF 377.31 K](574)
    By the method of satellite image combining with NWP products and conventional data,the very short term precipitation forecasting indices of Huainan area are given.
    9  A Technique of Dynamic Statistics Interpretation of NWP and Cold Wave Prediction
    陈静 桑志勤
    1998, 24(2):34-38. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.009
    [Abstract](537) [HTML](0) [PDF 273.80 K](545)
    Based on the physical process of temperature variation,a technique of dynamic-statistics interpretation of NWP products was suggested. The interpretation scheme about the in-vading time and descending temperature of cold wave over Sichuan basin was developed. Byuse of ECMWF products,the automatic forecasting system of cold wave was built and it can be rulled to forecast the cold air in the coming one to six days. The operational forecast was conducted in 1995 and the effective result was obtained.
    10  The Climatic Characteristics of Black Storm in the Northern Part of North China
    刘景涛 郑明倩
    1998, 24(2):39-44. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.011
    [Abstract](497) [HTML](0) [PDF 387.50 K](568)
    Based on the historical data from 72 meteorological stations located in the west and middle parts of Inner Mongolia,Northern China,some climatic characteristics of black storm in this area were studied,including the regional distribution,the daily,decadely,seasonally annually and decadely variations of its frequency and intensity. The formation of these characteristics was also discussed. At last ,it is concluded that the west and middle parts of Inner Mongolia are vulnerable to black storm and suffer loss frequently. The strongest center is the Zhurihe station which is located in the middle part of Inner Mongolia. The time variation of black storm is very notable and its intensity varies greatly
    11  The Evolution Rules of Thunderstorm over Three Gorge Dam Area
    1998, 24(2):45-48. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.012
    [Abstract](435) [HTML](0) [PDF 215.07 K](519)
    Using daily weather data of the Yichang station in 1961~1994,the evolution rules of thunderstorm near the Three Gorge Dam were analyzed,such as its daily,seasonal and interannual variations. It provided background for the Three Gorge Dam project.
    12  Classification and Assessment of Wind and Hail Disaster of Winter Wheat
    1998, 24(2):49-51. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.2.013
    [Abstract](507) [HTML](0) [PDF 204.18 K](489)
    17 cases relating to winter wheat growth were selected from among 33 hail events during 1981 to 1990. The wind and hail disaster of winter wheat was studied. The hail diameter,the duration of hailfall and the gust during hailfall were used as the factors,the classification and assessment of wind and hail disaster were conducted. The application shows that it is significant for raising the administrative level of the agricultural disaters.

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