ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 24,Issue 1,1998 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Probability Forecasts of Summer Drought in Gansu Province
    董安祥 张存杰 李栋梁
    1998, 24(1):3-6. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.001
    [Abstract](539) [HTML](0) [PDF 263.47 K](646)
    Abstract:
    ummer precipitation of Gansu province is divided into seven regions by using EOF and REOF method,a representative station is selected in each region. An index of summer drought intensity is designed which indicate not only summer precipitation but also drought duration in summer. The index of summer drought intensity was combined with the summer drought probability. Summer drought probability forecast equations of representative stations were established by analyzing general circulation feature index and surface meteorological essential factors and using the method of stepwise regression analysis and stepwise discriminate analysis. The concept of assembly probability forecast is put forward. Moreover,a method evaluating summer drought probability forecasts is given.
    2  Study on Meteorological Modernization Benefit Evaluating Method
    张钛仁
    1998, 24(1):7-12. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.002
    [Abstract](511) [HTML](0) [PDF 415.86 K](558)
    Abstract:
    he basic characteristics and the form of expression of the Chinese meteorological modernization benefit was analysed and deduced,and the basic thinking and evaluating method of the meteorological modernization benefit was put forward. The evaluating system of the meteorological modernization benefit was set up and the basic method of the MMBE was researched . Some preliminary results of analysing and evaluating the meteorological modernization in the short range weather forecast were obtained.
    3  Real time Monitoring and Assessment of Drought in North China using Weather Information
    李小泉 顾秋瑾 牛若芸
    1998, 24(1):13-19. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.01.003
    [Abstract](723) [HTML](0) [PDF 438.65 K](628)
    Abstract:
    ased on the requirement of meteorological information service,the scheme of calculating drought index was designed in consideration of three conditions using real time weather information,that is :precipitation in recent time,moisture in the soil (precipitation in earlier stage) and air temperature. The inspection of spring drought in North China in 5 years of historical data and in 1997 shows that it is quite helpful for real time monitoring and assessment of drought and ased on the requirement of meteorological information service,the scheme of calculating drought index was designed in consideration of three conditions using real time weather information,that is :precipitation in recent time,moisture in the soil (precipitation in earlier stage) and air temperature. The inspection of spring drought in North China in 5 years of historical data and in 1997 shows that it is quite helpful for real time monitoring and assessment of drought and meteorological information service.
    4  Comparative Analysis of Two Southwest Low vortices Causing Different Weather in Shandong
    张飒 刘志红 张少林 程相坤
    1998, 24(1):20-24. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.004
    [Abstract](539) [HTML](0) [PDF 367.10 K](673)
    Abstract:
    here are two similar southwest low vortices moving eastward on June 28-29,1996 and July 3-4,1996,but causing large difference in coverage and intensity of precipitation in Shandong. Study on it shows: the basic reasons that southwest low vortices cause different weather in Shandong are the differences of steering flow,physical mechanism and thermal structure,esp. the difference of steering flow. The movement direction of the southwest low vortices is decided by the steering flow,but the development is decided by the intensity of aerological thermal advection. The weather pattern of rain gust in Shandong caused by southwest low vortices is given. The results give us some references in the operational forecast.
    5  A Climatic Analysis of the Frostless Season in the Heilongjiang Province
    施淑嬿 曹秋萍
    1998, 24(1):25-30. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.005
    [Abstract](584) [HTML](0) [PDF 330.70 K](630)
    Abstract:
    he spatial and temporal variations of the frost seasons in the Heilongjiang province were investigated. the main resules are as follows: During 1960's and 1970's,the onsets of the frost seasons are earlier than normals,the ends of the frost seasons are later,and the frostless seasons are shorter; Since 1980's,the ends of the frost seasons have been gotten earlier and its onsets is later in the most parts of Heilongjiang province,thus the frostless season is longer. These show that the climate is colder than normals before 1970's,after that it is changed into warmer.
    6  The Relationship between Low Vortex of Qaidam and Precipitation in Ihju Meng Area during July and August
    贺勤 邱东平 奥凤义 张改生
    1998, 24(1):31-34. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.006
    [Abstract](475) [HTML](0) [PDF 322.05 K](564)
    Abstract:
    he precipitation weather systems were analysed by use of the historical weather chart of July and August in each year of the last 28 years,which cause the medium and heavy rain at Ihju Meng in Inner Mongolica autonomy region. The definition and properties of the low vortex of Qaidam which is the prime affecting system were discussed. The influence of mountain chain orientation on the occurrence and development of the low vortex,and the moving track and forecast of the low vortex were investigated.
    7  The System of Snowstorm Forecasting with NWP Product in Henan Province
    宋清芝 王新敏 索秀珍
    1998, 24(1):35-38. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.007
    [Abstract](969) [HTML](0) [PDF 230.96 K](705)
    Abstract:
    he system of snowstorm forecasting ahead 24 hours with T63 output in Henan province is presented,based on the principle of grey system. It is tested daily in 1996 winter season,and the predicting effect is better.
    8  Technique and Process of Forecasting and Warning for the Severe Convective Weather in Afternoon during Midsummer
    赵廷龙 汪克付 王莘芳
    1998, 24(1):39-42. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.008
    [Abstract](549) [HTML](0) [PDF 244.11 K](611)
    Abstract:
    ased on MICAPS,a method of prospecting and nowcasting for severe convective weather in afternoon during midsummer is proposed by comprehensively weather maps,physical data fields,radar echoes and satellite cloud pictures. The early warning nowcasting products for different periods are disseminated by urban warning network,radio calling system and 168 information service (or 121 information service),thus,the workflow,designed for severe convective weather forecasting and forecasting products,and dissemination have been effectively improved from July to August in 1996. An early warning service experiment is carried out with good social and economy benefit.
    9  Precipitation Probability Forecast in Guangzhou
    谢定升 梁凤仪 易爱民
    1998, 24(1):43-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.009
    [Abstract](701) [HTML](0) [PDF 306.63 K](636)
    Abstract:
    he importance and principle of Precipitation Probability Forecast (PPF) are discussed. Meanwhile,the operational process of PPF and Guangzhou PPF experiment results are presented. Some propositions about deeply developing PPF are suggested.
    10  Comparison in Rainfall Forecast between NMC and HLAFS
    刘还珠 黄卓
    1998, 24(1):47-52. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.1.010
    [Abstract](1070) [HTML](0) [PDF 365.16 K](660)
    Abstract:
    set of objective methods for assessing rainfall forecast was designed. It can be applied to either the forecasts of weather forecaster,or those from numerical weather prediction models. On analyzing the rainfall forecasts during the period from July to September 1996,it was shown that,for the forecasts of torrential rain,the TS score of 24-hour forecasts,it is even higher than the corresponding climate probability except in the Northwestern China region,presenting a positive skill. Both forecasters and HLAFS produced more " point over"(PO) than " Not Hit" (NH) medium and light rainfall. Furthermore,forecasters produced more PO forecasts for the rainfall over the Northwestern China.
    11  Estimate of Maximum Wind Speed for 300kV transmission line from Yulin to Shenmu
    庞文保 李怀川 鲁渊平 周卫红 王小宁 雷向杰 杜川利
    1998, 24(1):53-55. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1998.01.011
    [Abstract](1156) [HTML](0) [PDF 182.10 K](572)
    Abstract:
    Based on wind data of 16 meteorological stations in north part of Shaanxi province, by using power function, successive regression, K.Pearson Ⅲ type and curve fitting, the extreme value of maximum wind speed was estimated for 300kv high pressure transmission line from Yulin to Shenmu, which happened every 15 years at 15m above the ground. And the design value of maximum wind speed was finally suggested to be 30m·s-1.

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