ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 23,Issue 8,1997 Table of Contents

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  • 1  The Ensemble Prediction and Its Application in Medium Range Weather Forecast
    李小泉 刘金达 汪迎辉
    1997, 23(8):3-9. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.001
    [Abstract](665) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.89 M](556)
    Abstract:
    The fundamental conception,the sense and function in mediumrang weather forecast of ensemble prediction as well as the main ensemble products in present are summarized.The operation of ensemble prediction in NMC of USA and ECMWF,the experimental research of DERF and ensemble prediction in NMC of China are reviewed.
    2  The Preliminary Exploration for the Influence of General Circulation over Southern Hemisphere on Precipitation over South China during Pre-Flood Season
    张爱华 吴恒强 覃武 蒋伯仁
    1997, 23(8):10-15. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.002
    [Abstract](1116) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.68 M](536)
    Abstract:
    By using the solenoid fields data of sea level pressure over Southern hemisphere,through the difference value fields and correlation analysis,the influence of general circulation of atmosphere over Southern hemisphere on precipitation over South China during preflood season have been analyzed.The results show that the general circuation of atmosphere systems over the Southern hemisphere are basically outofphase for drought and waterlogging years,in same term or earlier stage.The influence mechanism of Australia anticyclone,Mascarene anticyclone and convective active region of South America have been preliminary analyzed.The significant fact of the anticorrelation relationship between the Australia anticyclone intensity and SW monsoon in South Sea affecting South China have been researched for the first time.
    3  Multiparameter Radar Application in Rainfall Rate Estimation in the Presence of Hail
    刘力 邓华秋
    1997, 23(8):16-20. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.003
    [Abstract](340) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.88 M](475)
    Abstract:
    Based on multiparameter radar (dualpolarization,dualwavelength,and Doppler)observations of early Summer severe storm accompanied by hail,reflectivity Zh,specific differential phase Kdp at Sband and X-band specific attenuation Ax were applied to estimate rainfall rates.The estimates from radar parameters were compared with groundbased raingage measurements.The results show that both R-Kdp and R-Ax relations were in good agreement with the raingage data,that is,less than 10% difference in the rainfall accumulations.The R-Zh relation produced similar results only when Zh was truncated at 55dBz.This study demonstrates the potential of Kdp for estimating rainfall rates in convective rainstorms with rainhail mixtures.
    4  The National Dissemination System of Numerical Weather Prediction Products
    相秀珍
    1997, 23(8):21-24. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.08.004
    [Abstract](430) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.56 M](474)
    Abstract:
    With the establishment of 9210 system,the dissemination of medium range NWP (T106) adopts the following ways:surface telecommunication system and satellite telecommunication system.Because the surface telecommunication system is limited by the capacity of transmission,NMC takes three kinds of method in order to meet the station needs at all levels according to their receiving ability. On the other hand,because the satellite telecommunication system has unified equipment and graphic software,it only needs one kind of transmission method,and the message quantity is much larger than that of the surface telecommunication system.
    5  The Diagnostic Model of the Shortrange Area Rainstorm and the Integrated Discriminate Forecast in Henan Province
    李平 孙景兰 张金彬 孔海江 李保生 闫少伟
    1997, 23(8):25-28. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.005
    [Abstract](391) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.57 M](494)
    Abstract:
    The diagnostic analysis of physical variables for area rainstorm from June to August in Henan Province was conducted and the dynamic model was given by using numerical forecast product of T63.The shortrange automatic forecasting system of rainstorm with divided areas was developed by the artificial intelligence,and by using the numerical forecast product data of T63(T42),two kinds of selecting regression independent variable method were used to establish the integrated discriminate forecasting in Henan province,one of two kinds is the stepwise regression analysis,the other is the least standard of the sum of error square.The trial results of the operational forecast from July to August in 1995 and 1996 was reviewed.
    6  Analysis and Discussion of the Meiyu Conclusion Prediction over JiangHuai Valley in 1991
    任泽君
    1997, 23(8):29-33. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.08.006
    [Abstract](402) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.27 M](465)
    Abstract:
    It is quite difficult for the meiyu conclusion prediction over JiangHuai valley in 1991.Because the ECMWF made the failure prediction for the meiyu conclusion,the serious differences of operational prediction resulted.In order to analyse the essence of the problem,a true situation of the meiyu conclusion prediction is objectively shown.
    7  The Application of BP Artificial Neural Network in Spring Rainfall Forecast in Shandong Province
    汤子东 郑世芳 奚秀芬
    1997, 23(8):34-37. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.08.007
    [Abstract](614) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.71 M](505)
    Abstract:
    The correlation coefficient of Northern Hemisphere 500hPa,100hPa and North Pacific SeaSurface Temperature with spring rainfall in Shandong province are calculated,the predictors with correlation significance level equaled to 005 are selected.A forecast model of spring rainfall in Shandong province is established by BP artificial neural network,and used to vocational work.The results show that forecasts of BP artificial neural network are good.
    8  Verification for the Forecasting Ability of HLAFS NWP over Low Latitude Plateau in the Flood Season
    段旭 何华 许美玲
    1997, 23(8):38-42. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.008
    [Abstract](348) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.70 M](596)
    Abstract:
    In order to make full use of HLAFS NWP,the objective verification and the efficiency analyses are conducted for the forecasting ability over low latitude plateau in the flood season in 1996.The results show that forecasts by HLAFS model have important reference value for the circulation evolution and the physical elements.
    9  Analysis of Energy for a Torrential Rain Process
    杨晓霞 刘厚赞 张国平
    1997, 23(8):43-45. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.009
    [Abstract](490) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.24 M](463)
    Abstract:
    By use of numerical weather prediction products and the analysis method of energy,the process of a torrential rain during August 21 — 23, 1995 over Southern Shandong and Shandong Peninsula is analyzed. It is shown that heavy rain is located in the area with high energy tongue at low levels,quasi-saturation and convective instability. Due to association of the positive vorticity on 500hPa with the warm shear of wind on 850hPa and cyclone center on ground,a stronger ascending motion triggers off convective instability energy a torrental rain is then produced. The moisture in the heavy rain area is from southwesterly current and the moisture in the Shandong Peninsula is from southeast.
    10  The Circulation Pattern of 9608 Typhoon Torrential Rain and Its Energy Analysis
    周晓平 伏建国
    1997, 23(8):46-49. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.010
    [Abstract](561) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.91 M](602)
    Abstract:
    The torrential rain from 4 to 5 August,1996 in Beijing area is the result of interaction among typhoon low,subtropical high and shear line.Before torrential rain,the tongue of high energy stretched from Central China to North China,and the energy in Beijing area increased rapidly.In torrential rain area,not only did the southerly low level jet transport water vapour and energy to it,but also did the wind velocity fluctuation of the jet trigger the release of moist available potential energy.
    11  The Climatic Features Analysis of ShortPeriod Precipitation in South Fujian during Rainy Season
    刘增基 林新彬 王世德 郑永玲
    1997, 23(8):50-54. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.8.011
    [Abstract](545) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.03 M](516)
    Abstract:
    Based on hourly precipitation data of Xiamen,Anxi,Jiuxianshan and Youxi from May to June during 1970-1994,statistic calculation and contrast analysis are conducted,the climatic features of shortperiod precipitation and its condition under different terrains during rainy season in south Fujian are revealed,the results are useful and valuable in nowcasting and service.
    12  The Characteristic Analysis of the Climatic Warming in Qingdao City
    洪光 刘春光
    1997, 23(8):55-57. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1997.08.012
    [Abstract](434) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.08 M](449)
    Abstract:
    The annual mean temperature for the last 90 years is warming at the rate of 0.05℃/10 years in Qingdao city,whereas the annual mean minimum temperature is warming at 0.13℃/10 years.The annual mean temperature for the last 40 years is warming faster than past period,especially the annual mean minimum temperauture is much obvious.By comparison with coastal stations,the variation trend of annual mean temperature is consistent with coastal islands (e.g. Chaolian island),whereas annual mean minimum temperature is warming faster than Chaolian island.It shows that the influence of Qingdao city development for the last 40 years on the climatic warming appears obviously in the minimum temperature increasing.

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