ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Volume 21,Issue 7,1995 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Seasonal Change from Winter to Summer for Circulation and Rainfall in China and Contiguous Regions
    张家诚 张先恭 魏凤英
    1995, 21(7):3-8. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.001
    [Abstract](486) [HTML](0) [PDF 223.90 K](369)
    Abstract:
    The annual variation of thermal and circulational peculiarities are analyzed, while the article high lighted that South Asia is a sensitive region in seasonal change. For better representation of seasonal change, an index of south branch of westerlies, as well as a new area index of subtropical high for north and south regions were proposed abed calculated. Statistical results show that there is prominent significance of these index with Meiyu and rainy season of North China. A series of index earlier to serious drought and flood were also sought out for reference to long range weather forecast.
    2  An Accuracy Comparison of Estimated Precipitation by CAPPI and by PPI Data
    戴铁丕 詹煌 刘婉莉
    1995, 21(7):9-14. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.002
    [Abstract](580) [HTML](0) [PDF 203.22 K](379)
    Abstract:
    Using the CAPPI data at different heights and the PPI data at loW elevation angle based on the 3 dimentional volume scaning data of 714 digital radar in the Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, the area precipitation is estimated and the distribution pattern is achieved. Then they are adjusted and compared with the measurement of the rain gauge network.
    3  A Review of the Typhoon Forecast and Warning in NMC
    徐夏囡 杨贵名
    1995, 21(7):15-20. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.003
    [Abstract](381) [HTML](0) [PDF 198.05 K](393)
    Abstract:
    The operation and service for tropical cyclone watching, forecasting and warning in the National Meteorological Center in 1994 are described.
    4  The Relative Humidity Forecasting Service System of Zhengzhou
    李平 黄石璞 刘绿江 郑梨云 贺哲
    1995, 21(7):21-25. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.004
    [Abstract](1142) [HTML](0) [PDF 161.95 K](381)
    Abstract:
    The probability statistics methods and the usual weather forecasting methods are combined based on the reguest of the special service, therefore data of the relative humidity from 1981-1990 art given. The probability characteristics of inter-region and the characteristics of synthetic weather forecaasting methods of monthly relative humidity of 24 hours at 14 o'clock are discussed. A specieal service system of relative humidity forecasting of Zhengzhdu is built for specieal service and routine relative humidity forecast.
    5  Synthetic Identification of Hail Clouds
    郁青 王雨曾
    1995, 21(7):26-28. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.005
    [Abstract](598) [HTML](0) [PDF 117.92 K](381)
    Abstract:
    According to synthetic identification of multiple factors,statistical analyses have been made to 103 cases of severe convective clouds from 1986 to 1988 in Mancheng county,Hebei province.A synthetic criterion of hail clouds has been obtained by radar observation in Mancheng and surrounding regions. The historical data of hail clouds and thunderclouds are fitted by the criterion. The accuracy of identifying hail clouds can reach to 95%.
    6  Hail Observation and Analysis of its Physical Characteristics
    王雨增 李凤声
    1995, 21(7):29-33. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.006
    [Abstract](422) [HTML](0) [PDF 139.91 K](386)
    Abstract:
    Based on the hailstone samples and hail spectrum data in Dezhou prefecture, Shandong province on Sept.7 1988 and on June 23 1990,relationship between the hailfall characteristics and the hail damage was investigated.
    7  Tropical Cyclones and Heavy Rainfall in Hebei Province
    孙寿全 魏文秀
    1995, 21(7):34-37. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.007
    [Abstract](524) [HTML](0) [PDF 129.92 K](355)
    Abstract:
    Using the data from 1965 to 1994, the relationship between the heavy rainfall in Hebei province and the tropical cyclones over the West Pacific are discussed. Three types of the tropical cyclones impacting on the heavy rainfall in Hebei provinces are given,and meanwhile their rapid development are analysed.
    8  Verification of the Forecast Capability of T63L16 Numerical Model on Short-Range Heavy Rains
    杨克明 赵梅 钱传海
    1995, 21(7):38-42. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.008
    [Abstract](482) [HTML](0) [PDF 185.76 K](363)
    Abstract:
    By using 500hPa circulation pattern forecast and objective analysis produced by T63L16 NWP model,the 24-,48- and 72-hour forecast capabilities for the affecting systems of totally 12 processes of heavy rains which occured from July to September in 1994 are verified and assessed.These systems include trough of low pressure,shear line,tropical cyclone,coastal ridge, West Asia ridge,subtropical ridge and mid-latitude front zone. The results obtained will be helpful for the explanation and application of NWP products and real-time operational prediction.
    9  An Objective Method of Locating Landing Typhoon with Surface Observation Data
    滕卫平 杜惠良
    1995, 21(7):43-46. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.07.009
    [Abstract](450) [HTML](0) [PDF 126.29 K](396)
    Abstract:
    The typhoon streamline field, pressure field and vorticity field are analysed by using surface intensive observational data and adopting running calculation region. According to their distributional feature,the center of typhoon is located. The software developed by this method is noted for its convenience rapidity, timeliness, objective and with less error of locating landing typhoon. It has certain practical values.
    10  The Postprocessing Technique of Improving MOS Short-Term Forecast of Cloud
    张立祥 David: A. UNGER
    1995, 21(7):47-50. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.7.010
    [Abstract](384) [HTML](0) [PDF 136.07 K](387)
    Abstract:
    In view of the poor quality of MOS forecast of cloud heights and cloud layers, the postprocessing techniques of MOS forecast are discussed and used in the operational MOS forecast. The results show that these methods are helpful in improving the quality of forecast cloud heights and elimating the unreasonable results among the cloud heights, cloud layers and sky cover.
    11  The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model
    郑洪初
    1995, 21(7):51-53. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1995.07.011
    [Abstract](429) [HTML](0) [PDF 140.69 K](371)
    Abstract:
    The time series of annual drought and flood in Ankang prefecture , Shanxi province is of a dynamic system. Using the controlled auto-regression model(CAR), a special CARMA model, the system is modelled. The CAR prediction model of three controlled variables has been obtained,and it is applied to predict annual drought/flood tendency in Ankang region. Its accuracy is very well.

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